UFC 280: The Fight Site Staff Picks
Photo courtesy of the UFC
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
Sriram Muralidaran: After the Nurmagomedov retirement in 2020, the UFC was absolutely desperate to find a way to bring the Russian kingpin back for one more fight - and while he refused, he also seemed to pave the way for his apparent spiritual successor to ease the blow for the company. Islam Makhachev had been a specter over the LW top-10 for years, even when Nurmagomedov was active, as a fighter who was comparably dangerous but without a belt attached; routinely entering fights at the -400 range, his reputation was enough to propel him to contention at 155 without the burden of beating a top-5er - only to somewhat justify that decision with a swift submission of then-#6 Dan Hooker. Makhachev being seen as a continuation of the Nurmagomedov legacy leaves the bout uniquely important for current #1 Charles Oliveira; for all his brutal successes over a much higher tier of competition, Makhachev could easily be the fight that defines his legacy. With a loss, Oliveira’s claim of being the best man at 155 doesn’t just go away prospectively, but also likely retrospectively - like another great Brazilian lightweight champion, he could go down as a transition between two eras of Russian grapplers, who wouldn’t be relevant but for the circumstances that forced a short break in their unstoppable presence.
Win or lose, “Do Bronx” deserves better than that - as a fighter who went from a glass cannon to just a cannon in every phase, to wipe out the best lightweights that MMA had to offer him. Makhachev offers a unique challenge, but not exactly like that of Nurmagomedov - and in most of those comparisons, Makhachev comes out looking a fair bit less effective. On the feet, Makhachev doesn’t have the same grasp of feinting or noncommittal offense that Nurmagomedov developed later in his career, and has seemed a good bit more hurtable in moments - which has led to a style that’s meaningfully different from the former champion’s fervent pressure. Makhachev largely looks to score at range with the rear kick, goading his opponent into closing distance and intercepting with the clinch - from where Makhachev’s sterling topgame usually leads to the fight being a lost cause. Makhachev is willing to pressure when he can, but it isn’t his focus - someone like Thiago Moises pressured himself and Makhachev simply followed him, but usually, he’s fine with an open-space fight until he gets the entries he wants, where Nurmagomedov was uncompromising about the front foot by the end of his reign.
This gives Oliveira some real scope, as one of the most effective and insistent swarmers in the sport himself - as Makhachev is likely to give up some ground as Oliveira attempts that, and he holds evident advantages both as an attrition kicker and a pocket exchanger. Even more interestingly, Oliveira’s elite clinchgame interacts with his striking in a way that should complicate the Russian’s game - while chest-to-chest exchanges leave Makhachev with a big edge, Oliviera’s game exists largely to manufacture more ephemeral collar-tie/frame encounters that let him get in and out while dealing huge amounts of damage in the process. The issue is just that he’s walking a tightrope, as a fighter who did struggle with the wrestling looks of Kevin Lee right in the middle of his current run - while Lee is very different from Makhachev in terms of how he gets his takedowns (in that he’s more of a shot wrestler with more apparent comfort pushing through messy clinch exchanges), Oliviera’s takedown defense hasn’t really been seen since, especially on the cage. While his incredible strength and leverage from bodylocking positions is apparent, knowing what to do against a similarly cultured clinch-wrestler instead of Poirier or Gaethje is something else entirely.
All this leaves Oliveira/Makhachev somewhat uniquely inscrutable as a fight. With Oliveira likely maintaining control of the entries with his edge in exchanges - in a way that doesn’t destroy his positioning the way Makhachev prefers to crash into the clinch - my lean is that Oliviera can find a way past him. Makhachev’s willingness to back up and draw his opponents in leaves Oliveira with the potential to just outkick him at range (where the brutal front kick from the Poirier fight might rear its head again with another southpaw), and Oliveira doesn’t blitz in as much as he feints and feels his way into exchanges - so Makhachev likely struggles to just slip a shot and end up in the over-under. While Makhachev has been more of a finisher lately, there’s still a huge dynamism difference in every phase - Oliveira has been absolute hell to fight for everyone he’s faced from a pure damage perspective, where Makhachev’s more conservative ground game than Oliveira (or even Nurmagomedov) likely means that he’ll need far more consistent success than Oliveira does to turn the fight, even with the likelihood that Oliveira’s scrambling doesn’t get much play underneath a certifiably elite top player. It’s very close and it likely won’t look that way - I’ll say Oliveira by TKO3.
Ben Kohn: I have a lot to say on this fight, as usual with Charles Oliveira fights. Many people are misreading elements of the fight, which I understand, and I wanted to start with general outlines, before getting more specific.
Most people are correctly pointing out something important, that Islam Makhachev will engage Oliveira on the ground. To try and avoid grappling exchanges would be foolish to say the least. When Oliveira is hurt, he will fall back to recover, knowing he won’t have his opponents following him, but that won’t be the case here. We’ve seen Charles lose fights on the ground before, with the notable Paul Felder loss in particular.
So what’s different here? Simply put, Oliveira was seen/perceived as the less capable striker in virtually all of his losses. Pettis, Lamas, Swanson, and Felder were all seen as having distinct advantages on the feet. Felder is the one I will focus on the most, because the differences in how Oliveira fought that fight, compared to his current demeanor/approach in the cage, are staggering. Oliveira fought like a grappler who knew he needed the fight on the ground to win those fights. His fight with Felder saw him desperate to initiate the clinch and body lock his opponents. Any means necessary to drag the fight to the ground.
The major difference here is Oliveira is the better striker, by a wide margin. He’s got more power, his mechanics are sound, particularly offensively. More importantly, he’s confident on the feet now. He’s not bum rushing guys or desperately grabbing guys for the clinch. There’s purpose, and he’s willing to take punishment if he needs to.
So that change in dynamics is important to note. Charles Oliveira will not be frantically trying to get Makhachev down. He can, and most likely would, win a fight taking place on the feet. Makhachev will be the one who needs the takedown here, and that’s something that needs to give those picking him some pause. What happens when a fighter whose goal is to fight as safely as possible is forced to push a pace and engage in a fight that’s not necessarily on his terms?
Makhachev relies a lot on his opponents respecting his wrestling and feints. Why is that important? Well, everything about his style is centered around protecting him from taking real damage. His rangey potshotting from the outside, where his head is too far to be hit is the first layer. Coupling jabs and straights, front kicks and rear roundhouse kicks with aggressive feinting, both striking and wrestling feints. Virtually everyone in MMA backs up with the threat of a good wrestler, so Makhachev rarely has to work hard to get guys backing up against him. When they push forward, he intercepts with the jabs and check right hooks primarily. When he runs out of space, he will initiate the clinch as well. It’s a sound strategy on his part when the goal is to avoid damage. The other part of it is being too close to receive any damage too. When his opponents are against the fence, Makhachev will open up with combinations (when he thinks you won’t fire back), and then clinching off those moments of covering up and not moving. It’s a sound strategy, one that keeps him too far away to be hit clean, or too close for any meaningful power to be put into strikes. Basically, Islam Makhachev is not interested in a repeat of the Adriano Martins fight.
So what does this mean for the upcoming fight? Well, unless Charles forgets that pressure is where he thrives, it doesn’t bode well for Makhachev. Oliveira is going to have the advantage at range. Makhachev’s feinting and kicking game are likely just going to get him chewed up. He can try to potshot, and will likely be able to sneak shots in, particularly early on. But once he starts connecting to Oliveira, he will be in range for counter strikes. Oliveira is going to also extend striking exchanges too. Oliveira’s striking game also flows in between ranges very well, his long strikes closing the distance where his combinations in the pocket shine, clinching and landing knees, elbows, or punches in close, before framing and getting back to either mid/long range depending on the circumstances. Makhachev’s whole stand-up game relies on you respecting the threat of his wrestling, and Oliveira likely won’t.
A final note, Oliveira’s clinch, specifically his use of collar-ties and frames, will be the key to really punishing Makhachev’s clinch entries. Oliveira, if I’m predicting correctly, will be just fine with clinching, but only when he’s able to frame and separate after landing his big knees, elbows, and punches. If Makhachev can stymie this and connect his body to Oliveira’s quickly enough on those clinch ups, he will mostly neutralize Oliveira’s clinch.
Discussing the grappling, Makhachev is absolutely capable of taking Oliveira down, and doing just fine on top. Makhachev’s top game has certainly grown since his Nik Lentz fight. Hsi weight distribution and passing game in particular. Oliveira’s goal should use dynamic moments of offense, hard strikes from the bottom and submission attempts along with aggressive use of butterfly hooks to give opportunities to stand up.
Makhachev is going to look to wear on Oliveira with his pressure passing, pinning Oliveira’s hips and looking to land short punches and elbows while doing so. Makhachev is not Khabib, and he is nowhere near as potent with his striking in transition. Makhachev looks to secure the position first, and only then will start throwing with any real conviction. His safety-first style will be a unique test for Oliveira. He won’t look to match Oliveira’s dynamism, but diffuse it. Despite this, he’s still prone to making mistakes, even with his improvements. His fight with Moises, the most capable grappler he’s fought in recent years, was mostly him dominating. But at multiple points in the fight, Moises was able to take advantage of some lapses in judgement and mistakes, nearly getting Makhachev’s back after a brief takedown, as well as escaping a back mount to get to a leg entry. It’s not that Moises was “winning” those moments, but more to illustrate the issues with a style predicated around remaining safe. Those safe positions are not safe once the scramble/position starts changing. If there’s anyone in the division who will capitalize on those mistakes, it’s Oliveira. Also, seeing Makhachev immediately quadpod to avoid being controlled by Moises on the ground…..not great. Makhachev’s gas tank is also not limitless either, he was definitely tired in multiple fights by the end.
My pick should be relatively clear at this point. Picking Makhachev is reasonable. He can probably wear down and beat Oliveira from top position. This fight will likely come down to whether or not Makhachev can connect to Oliveira in the clinch without much resistance. If he’s walking through hell every time he has to get the clinch, he will very much be in a Felder/Oliveira position, not an enviable one to say the least. Considering the questions we have surrounding this fight, and the unknown factors of both fighters, I can only guess those answers. From what I do know and do see, I think Oliveira wearing down Makhachev on the feet and forcing a pace he doesn’t want will lead to a third round finish. TKO or a submission off of a bad entry. Charles Oliveira by Guillotine Choke, Round 3.
Haxxorized: I am sick and tired of people seeing Mak as an extension of Khabib rather than his own fighter. It feels like people are living out the shadow of Khabib instead of appreciating what Mak has done. Islam is a damned good fighter, and it sucks that he got here without fighting a Top 5 striking/wrestling threat - somebody like Chandler to see how he handles explosions and dynamite, especially his standup transitions to his top wrestling. Questions remain about how he ties his own striking/wrestling and how effectively he can build them. From what we know, I think the more conventional striking of Mak (compared to Khabib) will hurt him here. Mak has a wonderfully dynamic wrestling threat, a complete system on the ground and a big title threat. However, comparably he lacks a sense of how to chain his striking into wrestling threats, and I haven’t seen enough striking chops to make me think he could abuse the possibilities of the open stance matchup consistently.
We know all we need to know about Charles at this point. Oli is going to bring it, is (probably) the UFC P4P #1 pure offensive dynamic striking/clinch threat; and is doing most of this off a cohesive system and a lot of genre-savviness (Oh no! I hath-eth been bonked by thy swine! Would thou'st care to follow me to the ground?). Mak’s got a great chance to punish that through his top game should TDs connect, although he is probably not the bonking-Charles-to-the-ground threat of Oli's last opponents. The dynamic revolves around how effectively each fighter enforces combat away from the fence and their comfort in transitions. That makes me wonder: How unpredictable can Mak be? Khabib’s physical advantages and strong fight IQ had him doing a lot of serviceable/janky yet principled feinting, consistently presenting 'mixed' threats and abusing margins (rewatch the Gaejthe fight: an excellent example of how to win by losing a round on the feet). Mak is a safer and lower-risk fighter by choice and perhaps athletic necessity - that may hurt him against a fighter who has embraced offensive activity and depth to set initiative and force responses to his traps.
Cool dynamic operating here: we know a lot about how Mak wins navigating in areas of comfort, and we know a lot about how Charles wins fights recovering from getting Tubthumbed; then turning it up with his own A game.
Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw
Sriram: Narratively, Sterling vs. Dillashaw feels a bit like a foregone conclusion - in that Sterling is off the best win of his career against a demonstrably difficult style matchup, where Dillashaw battled his own body to a split victory over an opponent who Sterling crushed with ease. Whether Dillashaw is slowing down or not is a bit of an open question, with the challenges that Cory Sandhagen presented stylistically - but that fight was over a year ago, Dillashaw sustained some nasty injuries there, and he’s reaching the age where top bantamweights often go from inflicting horrific violence to trying to survive it. On the other hand, Aljamain Sterling seems to understand his own style better than ever - and while he hardly dominated Petr Yan, the difference between fight 1 and fight 2 was night and day.
All that hedging done, I think Dillashaw is a particularly brutal matchup for Sterling, in ways that the Sandhagen bout didn’t really convince me out of. Sterling excels primarily as a grappler, particularly against opponents who try to wrestle up to their feet - where his length and backtaking game have been integral to his success. Dillashaw does wrestle up with great urgency, in ways that got Petr Yan tied up for rounds at a time - but the wrestling exchanges that got the fight there were incredibly ugly, and Aljamain Sterling is generally not the kind to pull off the brisk entries and finishes that someone like Dominick Cruz grounded Dillashaw with for almost 15 seconds at a time. Dillashaw’s defensive wrestling throughout his UFC career has looked absolutely brilliant - consistently forcing his opponents into looking to build off having a poor grasp on his ankle after the initial entry, and usually outscrambling them afterwards, with the kind of urgency at every stage to make a janky wrestler’s job very difficult. This, in itself, could be a dealbreaker for Sterling over five rounds; he tends to need the grappling to limit the pace, and his 4th and 5th rounds against Petr Yan were far from his best (even with Yan lacking the reads that make him dominate fights down the stretch normally). Dillashaw’s urgency and skill at preventing wrestling situations from progressing, plus an unnaturally torrid pace over 5 rounds, likely leave Sterling in an awkward spot.
Given that the backtakes won’t pan out - which has to be stipulated for a prediction that isn’t obvious - Sterling’s path becomes a lot more tenuous. Dillashaw struggled with Sandhagen’s smart probing at long range - moving him around into bigger shots with the jab - and Sterling isn’t incapable of that sort of tricky and arrhythmic volume; however, the question is how long he can keep that up in a fight without the cushion of the grappling. Sterling’s best performances as a striker have come against fighters with somewhat limited range; someone like Jimmie Rivera or Pedro Munhoz was certainly a more cultured and mechanically-sound pocket threat than Aljamain, but he did a lot of work camping outside of their best spot and confusing them with janky volume as they looked to close in. Dillashaw, on the other hand, seemed to understand how to close down the elusive Sandhagen even at a large range disadvantage - shifting in from the first round and pressuring behind kicks to pull the fight back in the third, where his issues came from a slick counter threat that Sterling’s positioning often doesn’t allow. As a striker, Dillashaw seems to be working with more margin in terms of durability and cardio, whose tricks as a mover afford him more intentionality in exchanges and who isn’t at all outgunned as a kicker either. While he approached Dominick Cruz’s tricky movement with some lack of focus early, it bears mention that he eventually got very sharp at punching into low kicks and punishing Cruz’s exits - in ways that are clearly transferable here against another flashy mover, and which he got to a bit earlier against Sandhagen.
Sterling is off a win over a genuinely brutal style matchup in Yan his last time out - it has been a fool’s errand to count him out over the last five years - but Dillashaw presents enough depth and craft for me to expect that Sterling might run into a bit of a stylistic wall. Without reliable control success against someone who won’t concede the long range to get funked on, Sterling likely needs to work incredibly hard to fluster Dillashaw into not pocketfighting him - work that he likely can’t maintain, where Dillashaw is live to hurt him in every range and be there late too. Dillashaw by UD.
Dan Albert: Let’s get this one of the way: We are dealing with a fighter who isn’t at his physical best, yet if Dillashaw shows a similar form that he had in his bout with Sandhagen, then I think we’re in for a treat.
Sterling’s evolution into one of MMA’s best fighters wasn’t exactly unknown, but his win over Petr Yan earlier this year reiterated just how special he was. Yan posed enormous danger on the feet and had demonstrated that he could turn Sterling’s pace and wrestling into liabilities in their first fight. Although Yan’s cagecutting and wrestling defenses weren’t as on point as that meeting, Sterling reallocated his successes around: He drew Yan’s defensive responses and overaggressive reactions - and turned them against him. Although Sterling’s unorthodoxy leads to him into trouble, his more restrained approach let him think about making big moments where they mattered and staying away from energy costly exchanges - zeroing in on a singular question: “How do I get Yan’s back?” It isn’t exactly something you can see working against every fighter, but, between this approach and Sterling’s aggressive, authoritative volume strategies against Munhoz or Sandhagen, it’s impossible to deny that Sterling knows how to allocate his tools to achieve maximum successes. You’re looking at a fighter who loves to apply many weapons (e.g. handtraps into kicks) off of many reads (constant level changes) and that makes him all the more dangerous.
That said, Sterling may be in for a rougher fight than he might anticipate. Against Sandhagen, even at a noticeable physical decline, TJ Dillashaw still looked every bit an experienced, gifted former champion. Dillashaw recognized Sandhagen’s ringcraft flaws early and, when one tactic stopped working, he doubled down on creating more. Dillashaw’s aggressiveness gets him tagged, but, when he zeroes in behind one of MMA’s most underrated jabs and a feinting game built upon making opponents panic, he can unleash a devastating amount of volume and crafty setups, especially behind his kicking game. And, although not as strong on the backfoot, Dillashaw is exceptionally dogged and his counter check hook has gotten many to back off.
Between two fighters who can do so much, I expect this fight is going to come down to margins. Obviously, the wrestling will prove a major factor and Dillashaw has proven to be an impeccable scrambler - we’ll not really know what that looks like until we see it. That said, I would say Dillashaw might surprise with some wrestling tactics himself: Yan successfully was able to pin Aljo to the fence, and Dillashaw accomplished putting Sandhagen in similar positions numerous times. Moreover, Sterling, even with all of his improvements, has incredibly flawed outfighting footwork; anyone who backs him up or kicks his legs has succeeded. Moreover, because Dillashaw likes to touch his way in instead of blitzing, he might force a more frenetic pace out of Sterling than the latter would enjoy. Sterling can still, if anything else, be surprising though: he showed versus Yan that even though he couldn’t really threaten him, he could use throwaways to make little successes (e.g. get space back) - and he still has some dynamism to catch his opponents unaware. You may remember that Sandhagen caught Dillashaw multiple times on entry and Dominick Cruz caught him multiple times with the check hook.
It’s extremely hard to call this one until we see things actually play out, but I imagine the fighter who can control the pace will have the greater success. It might manifest in who gets to go forward, how the wrestling exchanges go, how much is thrown, and so on. I personally have a hard time imagining it not becoming a physical fight that comes down to adjustments. And, as special a fighter as Sterling is, I worry that’, as far as showing their respective hands, I think the former champion has the better one as the fight goes on. This is a coin toss, though my gut-pick is TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Haxx: I wish I had the time to break this one down in detail, but the short version is this: I am unsure how much more Aljo can grow, but what he has shown is incredible. The two Yan fights and folding Sandhagen like a chair are three exceptional performances. Aljo will never develop nuanced enough technical striking to maintain his hybrid mixed style over five rounds, but his back-taking threats and sense of rhythm and timing let him navigate that. Therein lies my concern for Aljo - if that type of threat makes adjustments to Aljo's Yan 2 approaches for backtakes and goes after him for five with disciplined pocket threats - how’s Aljo navigating that?
With that in mind: how much does TJ have in the tank? He showed tremendous wiles against Sandhagen and tested him in many areas, and TJ has generally had solid game plans. He has the right pieces to test Aljo in the pocket all day and is unlikely to sit at range and let Aljo stymie him. I see TJ bringing it right to Aljo, and the question remains: can he survive that and turn it around? That margin lives or dies on what remains of TJ’s diminished physicality and if Aljo can get some back takes. Just one of those fights wherein a difference of one or two per cent results in a blowout, I figure.
Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley
Sriram: This bit is going to be incredibly low on Sean O’Malley on the whole, even outside of a matchup where he’s getting a huge step up, so it might be a good idea to start with O’Malley’s strengths. O’Malley is a fighter who is keenly aware of the advantages he holds over the vast majority of his competition; 5’11 bantamweights don’t exactly grow on trees, and O’Malley’s style is essentially built on the massive edge that comes from a huge frame paired with some real skill as a puncher. At long range, O’Malley is a fairly diverse kicker who toys with linear kicks to maintain range as he deals attrition if his opponent doesn’t change anything; if his opponent gets frustrated or desperate and charges in, O’Malley has a couple solid counter options that force them to reconsider crossing the gulf he enforces. This sort of game inherently limits longer exchanges, which suits O’Malley fine as someone most comfortable timing his opponents on repeated entries - and paired with that need for distance is some functional craft with his feet. Given the time to maneuver against an opponent looking to trap him, O’Malley has shown some sneaky direction changes, and his counter threat inherently makes a lot of fighters very skittish to enter range and push him back.
Unfortunately, O’Malley’s style has shown to somewhat fall apart against fighters who don’t play a game of “get kicked for free on the outside and then rush in without the tools to extend exchanges”. For one, O’Malley seems pathologically incapable of standing his ground under pressure - and this need for constant movement to defuse an opponent intent on exchanges would be fine with sounder movement, but O’Malley’s resets and arcs around the cage tend to be wide and break his stance. Against the woefully overmatched Kris Moutinho, O’Malley’s snappy straight punching found the mark over and over - but between the exchanges, O’Malley largely seemed fine allowing Moutinho to plod forward as O’Malley reset constantly, as if any close-range exchanges not exactly on his terms would be the worst thing that could possibly happen to him. For another, at long range, O’Malley doesn’t have any systematic answers to being kicked; Pedro Munhoz fought an uncharacteristically skittish fight last time out, but simply mixing up between the inside and outside leg kick saw O’Malley not just fail to deal with most of them substantively (no, he didn’t really check many at all), but also fail to establish consistent boxing success against the slower and shorter man in the process. Even outside the physical durability issues that reared their heads against Marlon Vera and Andre Soukhamthath, the nightmare for O’Malley would seem to be someone who can outkick him at range while also consistently taking advantage of his footwork - who can draw and track exits with brutal efficiency and extend the exchanges he finds, while also having the defense at range and the counter threat to limit O’Malley’s offerings.
I’m sure the “enter Petr Yan” here could be left implied. While O’Malley starts quicker than Yan and has a longer effective range that likely allows him to optically look fine for a while (where the division’s longer pace-pressure boxers such as Sandhagen or Rob Font would likely start beating O’Malley from second 1), Yan’s solutions to Sandhagen’s long, movey, feinty game with much more craft and polish than O’Malley would seem to strip the American of any real hope. Yan’s patient pressure kept Sandhagen from getting much room to set any traps, and his countering in combination/kick counters meant that Sandhagen spent much of that fight seeming like he was deeply contemplating the safest way to stick his hand into a woodchipper. Giving ground gave Yan the opportunities to start tracking him down in big shifting combinations, and Yan’s deep and adaptive high guard left even Sandhagen’s offensive versatility stymied. O’Malley’s style is comparable on the surface to Sandhagen’s, but in most ways, he doesn’t measure up - and Yan likely shows it. Yan by TKO3.
Dan: There are a couple of things that O’Malley is working with that anyone fighting him has to keep their eyes on. Namely, O’Malley does start fast and, when given his range to feint at levels to cause opponent responses, he can be deceptively dangerous. O’Malley’s modus operandi can be distinguished as a distraction to a setup to an execution: that is, he’s looking to draw a response to create his sniper shot. He has shown a propensity for faking body shots to work hooks around his opponent’s guards and, at range, actively applies a decent kicking game to punish passivity. With surprising speed and power, O’Malley, when leading, is at his most potent.
Suffice it to say, the former champion, Petr Yan, is an enormous step-up in opposition for O’Malley. A dedicated cage general and arguably the sport’s best at interchangeably mixing his offense and defense together, there probably isn’t a fighter at bantamweight that is going to have an easy night with him. Despite being one of the finest fighters alive right now, Yan isn’t faultless. Although criticism of Yan starting slow is a bit hyperbolic, to be his most potent, Yan does take in reads to adjust around opponent-adjacent skills, take them away or turn them against them. This does mean Yan can fall into his opponent’s fight, but he navigates it with an incredibly versatile skillset, vicious mean streak, and among the most meticulous eyes for detail his division has seen. As far as controlling a fight with his offense, at his best, Yan’s ringcraft may well be the best in the sport, extenuated by tremendous comfort in transitions and wrestling exchanges. To beat Yan, you have to keep his defenses preoccupied, have comfort navigating multiple ranges, shut him within one phase, and have an ironclad understanding of your game’s limitations and greatness strengths. Thus far, only the current bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling has successfully done that - and it was still a close one.
These aspects underlay the problems for O’Malley here: O’Malley has shown his versatility at pressing the initiative behind his feints, but he’s been pressed back and pressured by far lesser fighters that it makes the prospect of a dedicated cage cutter extremely terrifying. The recklessness of Kris Moutinho or even basic steps from a post-prime Thomas Almedia saw O’Malley get his back to the fence and absorb shots he didn’t need to too many times for comfort. His vulnerability to leg kicks due to his constant resets bears even more worry when someone catches on. Although O’Malley has a good sense for accuracy and timing, he can be caught watching his work, which is what forces him to have to reset continuously. And perhaps the worst thing you can do against a fighter like Yan is give him an opportunity - because he will exploit it. And O’Malley, to be frank, gives too many to be confident in him here. He may well give some looks early, but without improved defensive cagecraft and reliance upon ancillary tools beyond feints, he is in for a rough bout on the feet. On the ground? Well, you just need to watch Yan’s bout with Douglas Silva de Andrade. Petr Yan by second round TKO.
Haxx: My problem with O'Malley fighting most of the BW top fighters is fragility. Beyond the obvious jokes about his fragile body, his style raises durability problems. He leverages his length frame a great deal, starts quickly and explores some time-tested southpaw options to line up a finishing shot. His problems arise when the other fighter can stick around, with competition as spent Almedia or as limited as Moutinho crowding him. Those concerns apply double given O'Malley's tendency to admire his work without the inside or clinching chops to smother opportunism aimed for it.
All of the above applies regardless of who he would be fighting or not - and unfortunately for O’Malley, he is fighting Yan. Slow starts can be a problem against a dynamic fighter who can mix takedown and striking threats and survive over five (Aljo, maybe TJ), no doubt. However, Yan remains incredibly difficult to dissuade and sufficiently procedure - I do not think O'Malley troubles him. With more durability or physicality, Sean could make this a lot more interesting, but it is hard to see an angle for victory with what he has on the board. Yan having any sustained troubles here would be an indictment of his preparation, especially when he does have the option to navigate any striking battles through takedowns and threats of the clinch.
Miguel Class: I think we were all surprised when this matchup was announced, given O’Malley’s own admission that he didn’t want to fight highly ranked fighters unless he was paid more. The UFC had also seemingly decided that O’Malley deserved to be one of the few prospects to receive intentional and favorable matchmaking, so throwing O’Malley to the wolves was not something many expected. We’ve heard Dana White compare this fight to Connor McGregor vs Jose Aldo, but it is far from that. While Aldo undoubtedly had already cemented himself as an one of the greatest champions in the sport, McGregor had done a lot more than O’Malley to prove himself a worthy challenger with his electrifying wins over Dustin Poirier and Chad Mendes. I’m getting a bit annoyed with the comparisons of O’Malley to McGregor. Sure, they’re both braggadocious, tattooed white guys with huge frames for their division, but, in my estimation, O’Malley is not the counterpuncher that he is touted as. O’Malley is incredibly reliant on his feints to draw out the reactions he wants to counter and, as Sriram and others noted, his pathological aversion to fighting in the pocket means he typically avoids exchanges where he lacks the initiative.
Here is one sequence against Kris Moutinho that I think is salient:
Of course, Moutinho was getting eaten alive for most of this fight, but the success he had just barreling forward, following O’Malley, and kicking his legs is worrisome. Especially when you consider the sophisticated brutality that allowed Petr Yan to track down and increasingly punish Cory Sandhagen, who is a more adept outside fighter. Towards the end of the above clip, we see O’Malley attempt a one-two followed by a shifting pivot, but Moutinho is able to cut off his escape with a right hook that catches O’Malley on one foot. These are the types of exchanges that Petr Yan seems built to exploit. I expect him to drag O’Malley into layered exchanges and drown him with adjustments, variety, and overall technical depth. O'Malley is likely to find it more difficult to work his usual feints and hand fighting setups and he'll be working around a much tighter defensive fighter than he's dealt with so far. After all, Petr Yan was able to stand at range and in the pocket with both Aldo and Sandhagen, figuring out their setups and defenses while finding violent responses. As others have mentioned, Yan is a bit of a slow starter, but the fact that O'Malley couldn't get anything going against Pedro Munhoz when he was denied the range and reactions he needed makes me think that Yan will probably be safe to spend a few minutes to get reads. Last, O’Malley’s grappling defense remains relatively untested outside of the second round of his fight against Andre Soukhamthath, and Yan has proven to be a dynamic scrambler and ferocious ground-and-pounder who was even able to force a grappling-heavy attack on Aljamain Sterling in the championship rounds of their second fight.
All that being said, MMA is very weird and both of these guys have been prone to an above-average level of weirdness. I expect something bizarre to happen, and whatever it is just might end up favoring O'Malley. Outside of an act of random chaos or O’Malley looking a level above what we’ve seen him from thus far, Petr Yan is the clear pick. I think O’Malley showed some toughness in his third round rally against Terrion Ware and being young and fresh means he can probably survive the hellacious beating most are anticipating. Petr Yan by UD
Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Sriram: Beneil Dariush is secretly one of the most riveting stories in MMA - while he has been the beneficiary of some of 155’s characteristic ranking weirdness, it isn’t often that a fighter can maintain the consistency of a top-10 lightweight without the general attributes of an elite at such a physical and dynamic division. In a class of fighters who largely seem unkillable and inexhaustible at the top-10 level, Dariush has gutted his way to a top-5 spot with a combination of rare versatility and consistent strategic craft - even if that strategic craft sometimes makes it seem like his fighting career has just been a roundabout way of looking for the man who can kill him. Dariush is fine with biting down on the mouthpiece and pressuring like a mad man, but he also has performances of incredibly patient offense-building off the southpaw double attack (Magomedov) and the jab (Michael Johnson), showing craft and depth regardless of the ringcraft dynamic being enforced. Combined with being a nearly bulletproof grappler, Dariush is the sort of generalist that most generalists fail to be - where the breadth of skills isn’t a sign of having no clear vision of where the fight goes, but of having both the tools and the judgement to lever whatever approach makes his opponent as uncomfortable as possible. For instance, Carlos Diego Ferriera looked as adept as any pressure-fighter at walking down the superlatively dangerous Mairbek Taisumov and putting absurd volume on him in exchanges - and yet Dariush walked in two fights later and pressured the Brazilian so hard that he looked lost.
I think this particular strength of Dariush is particularly relevant with Mateusz Gamrot - a fighter who has some real discrete advantages athletically and technically, but doesn’t always have the same kind of focus. Gamrot is a clever fighter with a lot of jank to his overall game - a love of the low single with a lot of options to build and chain around it, some clever straight punching and footwork tricks - but it takes a bit of time for him to really figure out what he should be doing. He eventually got to putting the pace on Arman Tsarukyan and attacking Guram Kutateladze in transitions, but spent a lot of time early in both fights getting kicked in the body at range - he's a fighter who's eventually more than the sum of his parts, but likely needs 5 rounds to consistently show it. With 3 rounds, it seems a bit iffy with Dariush in front of him.
I expect Dariush - barring any sort of lingering injury concerns from his last pullout - to come out with a clear idea of how to address Gamrot. I'd be surprised if it were the wrestling, as Gamrot seems largely better in extended scrambles - which does mean that Dariush is working against the clock a bit, as the top time is his best route to protecting his tank. My guess is that he pressures Gamrot to take advantage of Gamrot's footwork being a bit inefficient around the outside with his resets, kicks the body a lot and engages Gamrot with the jab while avoiding being walked into riskier trades, and tries to collapse into the clinch to circumvent the speed difference in the open when it gets a bit hairy. I just as surely expect Gamrot to eventually start taking over - but over 3, I'd rather be holding the ticket of a fighter with Dariush's intent and his immediacy, who's versatile enough to compete and survive everywhere while also being so keenly aware of the limitations to work around. Very close fight, but I'll say Dariush by UD.
Haxx: GET HIM DARIUSH GET HIS ASS