Boxing Preview, October 29th: Lomachenko, Katie Taylor, and more
Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images
A strong stack of cards this saturday, led by the return of Vasyl Lomachenko and Katie Taylor’s first defence of her undisputed set of titles. Anderson Silva vs Jake Paul is also happening: we won’t be previewing that but let’s acknowledge it exists, and this is to be fair a genuinely ballsy move by Paul. Well, that aside, let’s get into it.
Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jamaine Ortiz
lightweight
Lomachenko returns from nearly a year out with something of a tune-up. Obviously he’s had other things to think about, and as a 34-year-old with injury problems in his history, something to shake the rust off isn’t a bad idea. In any case, there have been worse opponents chosen by high-level fighters in recent history- Ortiz is extremely untested, but he has a good win over Jamel Herring on the books and an awkward style that may give Loma a couple things to work out before he finds the holes in it.
He will, though, unless Ortiz makes a huge leap in the polish of his game. Which, to be fair, he wouldn’t be the first. But as it stands, while he has a tricky, wide-ranging style that switches from rangy in-and-out movement with lots of stance-switching to a heavy-pressure, high-volume combination punching game, he makes some raw errors doing each of them that Lomachenko will have joy with.
His likely initial choice of approach will be the outboxing. He has fast feet and a solid jab and he may be able to make Lomachenko fall short a bit if he keeps it simple, but he also has a terrible habit of stance-switching reactively, which leads him to crossing his feet horribly if an opponent responds to that in a way he doesn’t expect. That’s a bad habit against anyone, but against the back-and-forth circling of the Ukranian magician, it’s about the worst possible flaw to have, and he’s going to get punished for it.
When he switches it up and comes forward, he’s a little more solid, in that he has a decent guard, moves his head well enough, and throws some good solid combinations, sometimes in great volume. It’s too ambitious to say he could exchange equally in a 50/50 with Loma, but he’s potentially closer than a lot of other opponents. The problem is that he does pitch too much weight on his front foot when he steps forward, and that means that the exchanges will very rarely be 50/50, because if and when Loma circles around to the side at close quarters he’ll find it very difficult to follow that move.
So it is what it is, realistically, a tune-up for Lomachenko before he makes his next run at the titles. Not without interest, but it’d be a shock and a half if Lomachenko lost or had significant trouble.
The main point of interest on the undercard is seeing Robeisy Ramirez again. Since his shocking debut loss the Cuban amateur standout has appeared to get his feet under him and looks good, a dominant win over Abraham Nova his most recent appearance. There, he showed off his slick aggression, pressing into in the pocket and avoiding most of Nova’s shots without seeming to move much at all before countering hard. This outing against Jose Matias Romero isn’t really a step up, but with Romero being more of a volume puncher than Nova it is a different sort of challenge and hopefully with a solid win we can see Ramirez move on to featherweight titles next year.
Other than that, there’s three other former Olympians - Duke Ragan at featherweight, Troy Isley at middleweight, and Richard Torres Jr at heavyweight - making their next professional steps, as well as a spate of other prospects.
Katie Taylor vs Karen Elizabeth Carabajal
women’s lightweight
Taylor makes her first appearance since her superfight with Amanda Serrano in May. Her opponent, Carabajal, isn’t in Serrano’s class and you’d expect Taylor to win here fairly comfortably, but it’s another one of those where it’s difficult to say exactly where the levels are. Divisions in women’s boxing, though getting stronger, are still pretty shallow, and Carabajal simply hasn’t had the opportunity to show how she fares against anyone near Taylor’s class. That will make things difficult but it also means we don’t know if she’s nearly at this level and ready to compete, or well short.
Her height and length do give her some cause for optimism. Taylor is very good fighting at range, and in close, but transition between the two has always been her biggest weakness as a pro. Carabajal’s height doesn’t appear to be listed anywhere official but she’s clearly solidly taller than the champion, and boxes pretty smoothly at long and middle distance. If she can really keep it consistent, that could force Taylor to come in, giving opportunities to catch her as she moves.
Her problem will come in that she really can’t afford to let Taylor get close, because Carabajal has, so far at least, been pretty messy there. Lorena Agoutborde caught her solidly to the body repeatedly in her last performance when she managed to close range, and Katie Taylor is a lot better than Agoutborde. So most likely even if she has a few issues with the reach, the champion should be able to get inside and work her opponent there to a fairly comfortable victory.
The chief support is a European featherweight title fight between Jordan Gill and Kiko Martinez. Gill makes his first appearance since his remarkable comeback KO over Karim Guerfi in February, whereas Martinez is looking to rebound from his losing title defence against Josh Warrington in March. The Spanish veteran is of course experienced at much higher levels than Gill is, but he’s also well past his best days. Even in winning the belt against Kid Galahad last year he was being badly outboxed before landing the knockout shots, and he couldn’t really live with Warrington’s pace once the Brit lifted the tempo. Gill’s top level is unproven as yet, but he should have the speed, timing and accuracy to pick off the older man as he comes in, as long as he physically holds up himself. It’s a cracking fight potentially, though.
Other than that, you’ve got a women’s European title fight at super-bantam between Mary Romero and the rising Ellie Scotney, plus appearances for Gary Cully and Johnny Fisher.
Joseph Diaz vs William Zepeda
lightweight
The final card we’ll take a look at is headed by a solid lightweight contest between JoJo Diaz and Zepeda. Diaz isn’t taking it easy at all on his first fight after getting schooled by Devin Haney- Zepeda is a highly touted prospect. He looked very sloppy (and was lucky not to be DQ’d) in a stay-busy fight against Luis Viedas in February, but was much more focused in beating Rene Alvarado a few months later. He’ll need to be in the latter frame of mind for this one, clearly, but if he is this could be a great fight.
It should be high action, because neither fighter is going to go on the defensive here. Diaz doesn’t typically seek out a war, but he doesn’t avoid them when they come, and Zepeda is very much an outright scrapper. Between them, the younger Zepeda definitely has the speed advantage, especially with his feet where Diaz is quite stompy, but the defensive advantage lies with the veteran. Zepeda isn’t completely open, and in particular while exchanging he displays- when focused- a nice active guard and a knack for catch-and-counters- but his head movement on approach and exit is sloppy, and he has a bad habit of dropping his hands entirely as he leaves with his chin up.
That’s probably Diaz’s route to victory- while actually exchanging they look pretty evenly matched, but Zepeda’s sloppiness in that middle distance is going to be a bigger problem than Diaz’s slow footwork is for him, since Zepeda isn’t the kind of fighter to use that against him. Still, it’s by no means a given and it’ll be a good fight.
Chief support comes from a women’s world title fight, as Argentine Leonela Yudica defends her IBO flyweight belt agains Mexican Arely Mucino. Mucino looks like a bundle of high-volume, high-pressure energy whereas Yudica, though seeming more of an outboxer, also throws in volume in response to opponent’s attacks, so that could be a good scrap. It’s a light card beyond that, but Golden Boy are usually pretty good at matching their undercards well for action, so it’s worth a look if you’re around anyway.