UFC 268: Staff Picks

Image courtesy of the UFC

For the second week in a row, the UFC is putting on an impressively-stacked card. Although the top of the card involves two title rematches that may not have the most intriguing questions, the rest of the card is nothing short of one of the best of the year, especially towards the top. Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington put on a violent battle towards the end of 2019 and, despite the lack of activity from the latter, the two are set to face off again in a bout that captures some mainstream appeal (despite a lack of new questions for the welterweight king to answer). The co-main event is a rematch between the incumbent and two-time champion, Rose Namajunas, and the woman she displaced, Weili Zhang. The fight may well be a bit too soon too and it’s difficult to know how it might progress differently. Despite these headlining fights perhaps being on the unnecessary side, it’s hard to call them undesirable.

That said, the rest of the card is armed to deliver. Above all else, perennial violent contender Justin Gaethje and former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler are set to clash in what could be an incredible shootout. Both men are coming off losses, yet that doesn’t devalue how grand a matchup it is.

There are other many bouts worth watching, in particular the featherweight contest between Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo, but some of our staff weigh in on the most important fights of the night:

Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington II

Dan Albert: Because this is a rematch, it’s best to go back to the original fight, whereupon I’ll spend more time than I need to explain this. Covington is an incredibly willing trader, though that operated pace is best enforced through his ability to wrestle an opponent. If Covington is strictly just on the feet, he is demonstrably less effective for a couple of reasons. His attacks do come in flurries, though he won’t pair attacks out of two layers; that is to say, volume is often thrown out for volume’s sake (as opposed to say, a Max Holloway, who will use several shots for extremely precise targets to create other ones). Moreover, it is often an incredibly linear attack on the centerline and not at an angle and most attacks are rote and without setup. That said, he has won there because of his durability and pace being too much with his cage-pinning strategies, yet I will note that there are caveats: His opponents do fall from the pace, struggle with ringcraft, or can’t shut down his wrestling offense.

Usman is a bit of an anomaly on the feet – and my theory is that his process is part of the problem. What isn’t theoretical is how much Usman gets tagged early in his fights. I can attribute this to how Usman hasn’t found his footing to strike transitionally (e.g. punch into the clinch) and how his footwork and head movement in neutral space is a bit of a mess. I’d also suggest Usman is a tactile fighter; in other words, he has to find out what works through trial-and-error. Consequently, this means he has to improvise and feel his way into what does and doesn’t work. When Usman does figure out what he needs to do, his pace and physicality is overwhelming.

This leads to fight one, where, in short: Covington realized that Usman’s strength and superiority in the clinch shut down part of his game (and this was heavily reinforced every time they did tie up) and he had to engage in an ugly striking battle whereupon both men’s tendencies clashed early: Usman’s woodchipper impression saw him run into Covington over and over, but every time he had the idea to outposition the latter off the centerline, he tagged him hard. Even worse, Usman kept up with Covington’s pace and had attritional tools to hurt him worse, so much so that Covington’s only successes were when he tried to throw when Usman did. The moment Usman realized he could step inside, frame behind his shoulders to smother Covington and land as the Florida native stepped back, it was over. I’ll frame this fight as such: It was a violent war, but Usman fought with inconsistency and still demonstrated a difference in depth here.

In regards to a rematch, activity since this fight remains notable. Usman has since had several title defenses and has refined some of his standup. I’m not convinced he’s turning into some Trevor Whitman-neutral space operator, though his comfort in crafting some exchanges deserves credit. On Covington’s part, he has only fought Tyron Woodley and applied his own strategy to shut Woodley out, albeit with no discernable improvements at all. In other words, imagine being a top five welterweight when the book is out on Tyron Woodley and you still look mediocre.

I enter this weekend with questions about what kinds of answers Covington will try to pose and if Usman will apply a more clinch, wrestling centric gameplan, though I’ve yet to see any reason this fight goes any differently and Usman finishes him again, probably in another similarly ugly, competitive fight.

Ben Kohn: Considering what we know about both of these men from their prior fight, and since then, it’s fair to see Usman as the prohibitive favorite here. He’s demonstrated over the course of title defenses 2-4 that he’s only grown as a striker since their prior fight. As Dan mentioned above, he’s still not the most comfortable, particularly earlier in the fight. We can see this clearly in his fights with Burns and Masvidal 2. However, once he does settle in, his overwhelming physicality becomes a huge problem for his opponents. 

Colby has had a single fight since the Usman title bout, and he really didn’t show us anything different to make us feel the second fight goes differently. His performance was good, and obviously it’s not easy to out-wrestle Woodley, but it was no more impressive than Usman’s win over Woodley (less impressive I would say personally). However, it’s been a year since that fight, and Colby is at MMA Masters now. My only hope is that he improved from that move, particularly with respect to his clinch game and defensive wrestling. Colby has been taken down by less skillful and imposing wrestlers than Usman before, and should Usman go that route, he most definitely is not a good enough grappler to give Usman any issues in extended sequences of submission grappling. 

Colby’s whole game is about overwhelming people with pace. The problem is Usman is a brick wall that can both keep pace, and neutralize pace as well. Whichever method he chooses, both are hard counters to fighters like Colby who rely on it so heavily. Colby will be at a power, size, and strength disadvantage. Not exactly great when Usman also has a ridiculous gas tank and is pretty durable too. 

This matchup is lacking some excitement from me because one of the two fighters has demonstrably improved in his subsequent fights, while the other is just a question mark. Has Covington improved since his camp change? No idea, so until he proves otherwise in the fight, I will pick Kamaru Usman by TKO round 3. 

Sriram Muralidaran: I think my colleagues covered this fight fairly comprehensively - both with regard to the raw details and how I feel about the winner. Usman/Covington 1 was a competitive fight in the sense of Covington only getting truly overwhelmed at the very end, but I struggled even live to call it particularly close; the sentiment of Covington winning 2 or 3 rounds before getting put down was never particularly accurate to me, as Covington struggled massively to enforce his volume game against an improving counterpuncher who dug to his body with regularity (and those were the biggest shots of the fight). Covington’s reliance on the threat of the shot to push his opponent back wasn’t optimal against a terrific defensive wrestler who was also one of the scariest athletes in the sport, and he couldn’t just wait for Usman to wilt either - so his choices were to get counterpunched very hard trying to win, or stop trying to win and let Usman get his own game going.

In an odd sense, Usman’s bizarre strategy the first time around - engaging a man whose only real edge was enthusiasm and comfort in exchanges in an enthusiasm-and-comfort contest - makes me a bit more confident this time around. Really, Usman fought one of his less intelligent outings at UFC 245, and he showed that he could play the wrong game and still have the depth to come out on top. While Usman’s alliance with Trevor Wittman seems to herald him leaning harder into counterpunching off the backfoot (which would work), I’d like to see him move back to Hooft form here - pressure to the fence, clinch Covington, and work him over. Covington’s fight with the relatively undersized dos Anjos showed his lack of real aplomb in the clinch against someone with a real system, and defeating the utter void that is Tyron Woodley by clinching him hardly inspires confidence against one of the most adept clinchers in the sport. It seems like the path of least resistance in terms of “what is Usman very good at, that Covington isn’t also very good at” - but realistically, I expect Usman to just take the lessons from the end of the first fight and apply them here. That lesson is that Covington isn’t much of a backfoot fighter, he isn’t much of a defensive fighter, and Usman can simply march him down and tag him for free until the fight is over.

Usman certainly isn’t unbeatable, especially with his increasing willingness to test himself in areas that he would’ve completely avoided a few years ago - while his previous game wasn’t spectacular, it did consistently bring him into an area of absurd advantage with consistency that his more recent approach lacks. That said, he is improving as a striker (at building off his jab and attrition in the open) against dangerous and competent opponents - where Covington’s performance last time out was spectacularly uninspiring, against an opponent who’s been a blank canvas in front of everyone else. Usman has the answers, and I’d be hard-pressed to expect him to just forget them. Usman via TKO2.

Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler

Dan: This is the fight that is likely to steal the show and, barring Shane Burgos and Billy Quarantillo’s inevitably violent bout, it’s hard to not see that happening. The problem remains actually predicting what dynamic is going to play out because neither opponent has really fought one like the other. This is complicated by there being two different versions of Justin Gaethje: the pressure fighter who enforces a relentless, attritional assault to break them down or the outfighter, who draws them into counters with some center-space control. These styles each hold their respective strengths and weaknesses, but the intrigue here is that Michael Chandler is equipped to have an approach against both. As Chandler has gotten older, his insane athleticism remains a crutch, though he has refined many of his routes to pressuring his opponents. Many years ago, Chandler would blitz in with single strikes and surprise with his speed. Now, he’s more planted and will be touching his way in and actively target the body while level changing to establish multiple threats. Eventually, the same blitzes return, but with a twist: Chandler might hook off the jab or shift into an intercepting hook or just go for your everyday power right down the center. Nonetheless, all of these tools have built new routes to get his opponents backed up to the fence or to be taken out. On the backfoot, Chandler is less potent, though he will look for his reactive takedowns. And, although he doesn’t necessarily have the most threatening top game, Chandler is extremely strong and still one of the finer chain wrestlers in the division’s history. Gaethje does have underrated hips and sprawls and understands some points of fighting grips, though his bottom game is a bit of an unknown. Moreover, being completely overwhelmed by the best grappler in MMA history isn’t exactly a good basis to work if we’re to measure how good Gaethje’s ground game is. If this fight does go the distance, it is most likely because Chandler controls it on the ground. For my money, however, this is a fight that is likely to see someone finished in a shootout.

Chandler will hold the edge in explosive speed and will have the power to finish just about anyone in this division if he catches them clean enough, though the same can be said of his opponent. Gaethje remains one of the finest counterpunchers at lightweight and easily the most dangerous counterkicker. His greatest strength has remained his ability to punish resets and opponent movements, especially if they aren’t able to create layered enough offense to make him cover up or lacking nuanced defensive options on the backfoot.  When pressuring, Gaethje’s attritional damage is constant because he’ll be happy to punish any repositioning and force other fighters to stand their ground. Once in the pocket, his counterpunching is dangerous enough that even the likes of Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier had to be careful. The biggest problem is that Gaethje forces a pace that he can’t maintain and, despite fighting well tired, he’s incredibly reliant upon his damage adding up by then. Still, Chandler enforces an insane pace himself and can manage explosive attacks even when exhausted. Outside of reactive takedowns and dynamic bursts, Chandler’s lack of defensive options on the feet have always become more prevalent. I’m not sure this fight gets to a point of who tires first, though I can’t dismiss the possibility that if it does, Gaethje seems the safer bet and Chandler’s lead-leg heavy stance is going to see him eat counter kicks if he can’t close that distance or outposition/smother the former. And in the clinch? Gaethje’s collar tie is liable to tear Chandler to pieces.

Say Gaethje can’t make Chandler back up and has to fight on the outside? Gaethje’s reliance on the handfight as a bridge for offense and space is going to be a double-edged sword. As stated, Chandler is willing to touch his way inside and will reflexively use opponent’s frames against them (see Oliveira fight). Gaethje’s defensive cagecraft on the backfoot also isn’t as effective as his offense iteration. Although he can easily work around opponents into shifts and counters in the center if they can’t craft entries on him, he’s still liable to break stance and back himself into the fence if they play with rhythm enough. His left hook remains the scariest punch and he’s particularly good at catching opponents on entry or exit with it. His counter uppercut may well make its return here, as Chandler will be blitzing in low.

In short, there’s almost too much to consider for this fight. What it comes down to, for me personally, is durability. If we were talking about Michael Chandler half a decade ago, he may well be a far greater dog in a potential firefight. Patricio Pitbull and Charles Oliveira both took Chandler out on an entry right overhand counter and counter left hook on the exit respectively – both punches are two are Gaethje’s favorites. Getting hurt by Brent Primus is also not an ideal look for Chandler in a shootout that seems destined to happen. That said, make no mistake that if anyone can take Gaethje out with one shot in this division, it will be Michael Chandler, and only Gaethje’s insane recovery may see him survive. Though, conversely, if Chandler gets hurt, it’s hard to think of anyone at lightweight who is as scary a finisher as Justin Gaethje. I have no idea what will happen, but Chandler’s smaller margin for error makes me lean Justin Gaethje in a first or second round finish.

Sriram: Dan covered a lot of the dynamic here, but I’m a lot lower on Gaethje as a backfoot fighter than as a pressure fighter - somewhat paradoxically, fighting in a safer way has made him a good bit more vulnerable, and I don’t think his competition since he started sitting back and counterpunching would’ve stood a better chance if he simply did the things he did when he started out in the UFC. Gaethje’s performance against Tony Ferguson will likely stand the test of time as his most impressive achievement in the UFC - a five-round battering of one of 155’s most imposing five-round fighters - but Ferguson’s tendencies of squaring up on entry and his terrifically messy exits aren’t shared by everyone; while Nurmagomedov’s pressure was incredibly sharp and the wrestling threat played a role, it’s still worth noting how much Gaethje’s ringcraft suffered on the backfoot against an opponent who conservatively stayed in their stance and feinted him backwards, instead of barrelling into his right hand and then turning their back on his left hook. While the pressurer-Gaethje had the cagecutting and positioning to force his opponents to give themselves up for counters (the Poirier fight being a great example, where Dustin would be forced to lash out to buy space and walk into counter rights and leg kicks fairly often), Gaethje’s inefficient circling against the fence with Nurmagomedov doomed him even with a few strong counters in the first.

Of course, the differences between Nurmagomedov and Chandler are great, but one of the biggest is the durability to be able to take a few and keep doing smart things instead of unwisely collapsing in a heap. Chandler isn’t a Ferguson or a Cerrone in terms of his vulnerability on the counter - he does barrel forward but he’s not nearly as reckless with his stance, and his takedown threat can cover that more often than not - but he’s also not the deepest offensive fighter around; Freire (the elite one) and Oliveira could crack him both entering and exiting exchanges, and he’s looked hurtable to both the head and leg in recent fights. On the plus side, given the front foot, Chandler is a bit of a menace; very good at covering distance behind the straight to the body, and solid at herding his opponents into further offense off it (as Dan Hooker found, as well as many who found themselves ragdolled off the body-straight setup). Gaethje’s backfoot habits could genuinely suffer from this particular strength of Chandler; if Chandler’s takedown switchup can keep the striker from confidently planting on counters, he loses the insane connections that carried his ringcraft against Ferguson, and Chandler can take advantage of Gaethje’s movement both exposing and exhausting him.

If Gaethje came out looking to push Chandler back, I’d favor him implicitly; his responses to Nurmagomedov’s wrestling entries in space were quite urgent as he got his hips back and his head strongly positioned, and I wouldn’t expect Chandler to take more than a few hard legkicks or clean counters before he started wearing down from them. With the backfoot game, he’s walking a much thinner line - especially with his cagewrestling and his bottom game pretty much untested against people who aren’t insane phenoms - but I suspect Gaethje is likely too durable to outright lose here. I expect Chandler to do smart and effective things given the opportunity - but unless he’s able to get to the wrestling a lot more easily than I expect, the bigger burden is on him to not get touched whatsoever, and that’s not one I completely trust him with. Gaethje via KO2, in a very competitive fight.