Canelo vs Caleb Plant: Staff Predictions
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Canelo Alvarez steps into the ring again on Saturday to try to unify the light heavyweight division by defeating the undefeated Caleb Plant. In truth, we’re already fairly well decided on who the winner is going to be on this, but let’s have a go at picking out some of the things we think will come into play here.
Taylor Higgins: Plant is a slick, skilled and intelligent boxer who for my money is the best fighter at 168lbs not named Canelo - I’ve always thought he’d be too mobile for Benavidez (as long as his gas tank holds up). But Canelo is on another level entirely, and whilst I think Plant’s jab and movement could give the Mexican some trouble early on, I can only see this going one way. Canelo’s economical pressure and aggressive defence will start to break Plant down, and the American’s engine - which has always been suspect - will start to run out of gas by the midway point. Keep an eye out for how Canelo deals with Plant’s shell as well; ‘Sweet Hands’ is one of the few fighters in the sport who has a genuine understanding of the shell guard and its properties, rather than the superficial Mayweather impersonation we see from most American fighters, but Canelo has plenty of tools in his locker to prise it open. Look out for the Mexican mixing up the levels with his deceptive left hook, as well as employing head control when Plant bends at the waist. Alvarez seems to want the KO in this one, and I think he’ll get it. Canelo TKO 9
Lukasz Fenrych: Plant is definitely slick and skilled, and has a good understanding of the tools he does have- but the difference here as much as anything is going to be the fighters’ understanding of what they don’t have. We know Canelo can do a lot, he has an incredible bag of skills and some shit-hot head movement and always has, but what’s made him the fighter he is today is his ability, year-on-year and fight-on-fight, to pick up which of his own weaknesses is most glaring and fix that, as well as knowing which of his opponent’s weaknesses to best target. That’s why, even though his footwork will likely never be quick, it’s very hard for even mobile fighters to deal with what has become extremely precise, very educated pressure. It’s why even if an opponent can match him for a jab, it doesn’t really matter because Canelo uses an opponent’s jab to set up his work almost as well as his own. It’s why both men have historically had issues with their gas tanks and yet Canelo, all controversy about results aside, went 12 rounds with Golovkin twice without blowing up, so isn’t likely to be worried about it here.
In contrast to all that, Plant can do a lot of good things but doesn’t always necessarily have the best path to bring them into play. He’s good both using his shell guard at mid-close ranges, as Taylor says, and boxing at range, but he doesn’t necessarily have the best sense of when to switch between the two. We saw against Truax a tendency to walk himself into corners to rely on that shell when it wasn’t necessarily the best decision, and when he did find himself in those spots, his footwork to find his way out wasn’t very refined, tending to try to just lean on Truax to force a little space then walk around till he could back off. He can and does pivot and circle, but he seems to rely on a long stance to keep balance while doing so, so when he’s on the ropes with less space and a bit more squared, he does it less.
As a result of all that, I think Plant will give Canelo a few interesting looks early, but as it goes on the Mexican will start to corral him with small steps and hooks, then use his exemplary proactive head movement to put himself into position to cut off escapes. Plant will hold up for a bit, but though he’s quite likely the third most-skilled fighter in this division, we will ultimately see the gap between him and the top and Canelo will score a late stoppage.
Mateusz Fenrych: One of Plant’s main issues, for me, is going to be tempo, and timing. His last two fights, vs Feigenbutz and Truax, allowed Plant to somewhat showcase himself. The caveats being, Caleb Truax was an old man in the ring on the night, and Feigenbutz was a bulked up middleweight with a decent record but not a great deal of pedigree.
Plant and his fans rightly like to refer glowingly to Plant’s defence: as Łukasz and Taylor say, Plant seems to have a pretty decent understanding of defensive mechanics; he shoulder-rolls and shells up nicely, he has decent head movement when he remembers to do it, and he moves off the back foot pretty decently too. He also occasionally meshes this all together into a cohesive sequence, and looks properly sorted when it happens.
However, he’s been able to do this, recently, against opponents who seemed all to willing to not press their own agenda very often; both Feigentbutz and Truax would attempt an offensive burst, Plant would evade nicely, and then his opponents would settle back into neutral space as if to say ‘ah, this sequence is done now’. And two meters away, Plant would be comfortable, thinking of his next jab to throw, one at a time.
However, and most recently in the Truax fight, Plant found himself vulnerable when a) Truax threw with him, and b) more worryingly, when Truax would throw a bit of caution to the wind and extend an exchange. Plant could be seen getting caught flush in close exchanges on more than one occasion, and also as Łukasz alluded to, getting backed onto the ropes by an old, old man.
When Plant is not able to set his own, discrete beats, he seems far less composed, far less able to flow. More than once against Truax, he would just sort of allow Truax to collide with him and then clinch, sort of inertly until the referee separated them.
Guess who this will be a huuuuuuuuge, huge, huge problem against; ol’ cinnamon-bollocks himself.
If Truax is an inconsistently tidy fighter, Canelo is a fucking metronome. As Łukasz says, he will step tidy into range, jab-for-jab, he will corral, he will move his head (it’s not exactly clear how Plant deals with someone who could make him miss three or four times in a row, can he figure out a landing sequence? He hasn’t seemingly been tested thusly), and he will not let up.
Caleb can move, but, so could Billie Joe Saunders, and although BJS presented some mild problems, they were swiftly overcome. I think in fact BJS has (had?) the superior evasive footwork, and it didn’t take Canelo long to cut him off.
What’s more, Canelo is a viciously attritive fighter; when he steps into range he will be punishing Plant for extensive periods in a way Feigenbutz and Truax couldn’t.
Plant will be dancing to Canelo’s tune - steady, unrelenting and severely high pressure - from the off, unable to make his own moments, to make his own pace, until he gets lost in Canelo’s music around six rounds in. TKO 6, Canelo