UFC 262: Staff Predictions
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With the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov’s retirement from MMA, the lightweight division seems open again; while the logjam wasn’t due to the champion, who fought the right challengers at the right time, 155 seemed like a foregone conclusion for as long as the Dagestani was around. That said, the delay from the UFC in accepting his resignation did leave them in a bit of an odd situation, but it easily could’ve worked out for the best; while Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2 could’ve been for the undisputed championship had the UFC handled the matter more promptly, the title fight in Texas will result in a champion who hadn’t yet lost to the man who retired with the belt. Michael Chandler had a terrific career in Bellator — including a win over the great Eddie Alvarez — before crossing over to the UFC, taking out Dan Hooker in half a round; in just his second UFC bout, he fights for the belt against the streaking Charles Oliveira, whose turnaround has rivaled any tale in MMA. While both will likely have some work to do in order to cement their belt’s legitimacy — not only due to Nurmagomedov, but also due to the division’s #1 contender Dustin Poirier — beating the other is a tremendous start.
That path towards cementing their belt could include the winner of UFC 262’s co-main event, if certain things go right. Like one of the title challengers, the unassuming Beneil Dariush spent a long time under the radar at 155, better in theory than in practice until an impressive six-win streak that has seen him go from strength to strength; his opponent is the great Tony Ferguson, off two losses for the first time against the best 155 had to offer, looking to recapture the magic that saw him remain the de facto co-champion for years at a time. Finally, another lightweight staple in Edson Barboza — one of the most famed kickers in the sport — tries to continue his run at featherweight, facing a top-10 145er and the most frenetic pressurer he’s ever faced in Shane Burgos. The Fight Site’s MMA team has drawn up their predictions for how they expect each of these fights to play out — who will claim the belt at a historically difficult division, and who can keep themselves in the conversation as a contender in the future.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Julian Lung: Think this might be a tough matchup for Oli. While he has become more confident in the pocket and is willing to put on the pressure more consistently, his head movement is still quite stiff. I’m not quite sure how the wrestling exchanges will go, but Oli tends to be more comfortable accepting the takedown in order to work off his back which might lose him some rounds. Oli will most likely chew up Chandler’s body and legs, as he is the better kicker of the two. But I don’t see a way for Oli to do what he’s used to, without absorbing at least a couple of Chandler right hands that might just cause him to get controlled on the ground for a couple of rounds. Chandler UD.
Dan Albert: This is one of the best – or at least most fascinating – contests the sport has on the calendar right now and there are a number of ways it can and might go. It’ll be interesting to see how Oliveira can contend with Chandler, who, despite lacking the insane durability he used to, is still an athletic terror with nightmarish power. He lacks some of the more nuanced pressure and isn’t that effective past single-layer exchanges, he makes up for it by working the body and head to keep guys moving back. Although I’ve seen Oliveira beat arguably better athletes than himself in Kevin Lee, I do think Chandler has consistency and confidence that Lee lacked and his physicality can and will be difficult for Do Bronx, who loves to get in opponents’ faces and enforce his physical attributes, to get the inherent edge over, especially because Chandler will be willing to go forward in ways Lee wouldn’t. That said, Chandler’s linearity on the feet and in exchanges is potentially an issue if he’s to be pushed back early by Oliveira’s ever-improving counterpunching and aggressive kicking game.
Oliveira certainly isn’t a defensive savant and can be caught consistently on the counter (His main defense tends to be his best offense), but he is far more difficult to dissuade because he will fire back in combination to get ground back. He can be a bit reckless when he does so (I can see a reactive takedown helping Chandler here), but I guarantee that Chandler will be at an enormous disadvantage on the backfoot than the other way around. Ferguson isn’t as physical as Chandler is, but he can compete in far longer exchanges and Oliveira drew Tony’s counters out for blitzes whilst punishing him at distance with teeps and leg kicks to push him back.
At the risk of reductional analysis, I am concerned about Chandler’s ability to take punishment anymore. Were he as durable as he used to be, I would be far more confident here. Getting hurt by Brent Primus and instantly knocked out by Patricio Pitbull off a single short exchange (all due respect to Pitbull for his patented timing though) leads me to be a bit skeptical. There are far too many unknowns in this matchup that we don’t really see until it plays out, namely who can push who back, how the tie-ups or wrestling - which I will leave to others to talk on (though I do think Oliveira’s clinch and ability to hit off of them is danger zone for Chandler) - and how engagements happen, etc. I do think expecting this fight to look more one-sided than competitive is the best bet. I can see either man getting this for reasons above and more, though I’ll take Charles Oliveira by a TKO in the third-round at the latest.
Iggy Schekelburger: This matchup is chaos. Chandler is always dangerous in the early stretch of the fight and pushes an insane pace while Oliveira is an incredibly aggressive fast starter himself, so we can either expect fireworks from the get-go, or maybe an unusually tentative start from both that then devolves into pure madness, which is why this matchup is so fun. Chandler had demonstrated some strange issues with his ankles in the past and he most certainly did not enjoy Hooker kicking him upside the shins despite sparking the Hangman moments later, so Oli’s more natural and enthusiastic kicking game may play a significant role here.
That said, as already outlined by Julian, Oliveira’s tendency to aggressively pursue submissions may work to Chandler’s favour — a wrestler of Chandler’s calibre may just about use that willingness to control Oliveira and land damage. Nevertheless, in a strange twist, Oliveira may well end up being the fighter with less mileage on him due to his earlier history of folding when things weren’t going his way, which should also be considered in a matchup like this one. Chandler used to be known for being absurdly durable and while he is still a tough nut to crack, it’s hard to deny that his durability has declined a fair bit these days.
Honestly, I’m split on this one. I am not entirely sure who can I trust here: both historically suffer from a tendency to push a pace that gets increasingly hard to keep up the longer the fight goes (admittedly Chandler has gone the full five rounds before while Do Bronx decidedly did not), both are incredibly aggressive — even reckless — finishers, and both suffer from a pretty porous defense. Chandler may be the more dogged and consistent competitor of the two but with the sheer amount of mileage on his body it’s hard to be sure if he can keep it up, while Oliveira has shown marked improvement in his ability to maintain a consistent offensive volume after seizing the initiative. 50/50 title fights on average tend to end up being complete shutouts as opposed to back-and-forth affairs, and I don’t expect this fight to be any different.
I honestly don’t know. I’m gonna try and play it safe with this one, so I am veering towards an Oliveira TKO in the 3rd like Dan, and failing that, Chandler by KO1 or UD. Fuck it, might as well cover all my bases and throw in an Oliveira SUB2 in there too. YOU try and predict a fight, goddammit, if you think it’s so easy. Oliveira UD, Chandler SD, Oliveira SD, Chandler SUB, Oliveira/Chandler Parm Hero, Oliveira/Chandler Shrimp Po’Boy, Oliveira/Chandler Roastbeef Sandwich, Oliveira/Chandler Double Batter Fried Quadruple Cheeseburger. Just pick ‘em, goddammit!
Sriram Muralidaran: Chandler's a fighter I've read much more about (largely thanks to Ed, as well as Dan Martin's lamentations on Will Brooks) than I've watched, so this isn't a pick I'm expecting to nail, but the Hooker fight was also such a pure example of the Chandler process at its most effective that it does give you a good read. Chandler's terrific wrestling base aside, his striking is a very classical sort of Hooft functionalism -- where building around the level-change gives him both effective shot entries and options to build into big combinations, and terrifying physicality does a lot of the remaining lifting. He isn't the deepest striker out there but that isn't always necessary with the toolset he has, especially considering the pace he pushes early (one that isn't reliably enforceable throughout the fight for him, but also usually isn't necessary through five rounds).
There really are a lot of ways Oliveira can give him trouble -- even with the bodylocking perhaps a nonstarter early in the fight, Oliveira's kicking game could benefit him a lot against a stockier opponent who has had weird incident with legkicks before, the straight kicks to the body he used against Lee could intercept blitzes and chip away at Chandler's tank, and the submission threat might keep Chandler from banking easy rounds on top (especially if he tries it to get a break later, although subhunting against a fresh Chandler might just get a man stuck on bottom). The ringcraft dynamic is an interesting consideration too -- far from his flaky former self, Oliveira looks immensely confident in his chin and his potency in the pocket to pressure behind, where even Chandler's tougher opponents generally felt the need to get out of the train's way for at least a bit (giving him the room he needs for his own offensives).
In a twist from the Oliveira we all know, the longer fight favors him -- where he can weather Chandler's early attacks and wear him down from range and in the clinch, before finding his finish -- but Oliveira's improvements in the pocket have also all been offensive. Oliveira's upright posture and his reliance on the high guard have gotten him bodypunched before, and Kevin Lee landed quite a bit on him while being visibly uncomfortable on the back foot -- so if Chandler does his usual thing and demands his own game to be played early, bolstered by being incredibly tough to wrestle for the clever Brazilian, these are qualities he can certainly exploit. However, this is the sort of situation in which I tend to back the man with the long game, especially in a 5 round fight, and my relative misgivings on Oliveira (even now) probably won't change it -- I think Chandler looks very good early and Oliveira runs a great deal of risk, enough to make his newfound durability a weird thing to rely on in retrospect, but I think Oliveira takes over. Oliveira via SUB4.
Mateusz Fenrych: Pressure vs pressure; the question is who can more consistently get their guy reacting. These two guys seem to have two very different ways of applying theirs (disclosure; like Sriram, my knowledge of Chandler is more from reading about him than anything).
As has been stated by my colleagues; Chandler has the edge in power, quite clearly, and Oliveira takes the lead on variety and volume.
As for who can enact their pressure tools more consistently, well; this is most likely down to range, and how durable either fighter is.
My esteemed co-writers are hedging the idea that Chandler is perhaps beginning to degrade physically; meanwhile, Oliveira has had a historical tendency to get finished but not through physical breaking, but mental capitulation.
Lately, versus Lee and Ferguson especially, he has shown some ability to face down a large, physically imposing opponent who brings pressure (and in Ferguson’s case, notably pressure) and been able to stave them off, even when there may have been grounds for him doubting himself like he had done previously.
Chandler meanwhile, on his entry to the UFC immediately showcased his dynamite power, blowing out the notoriously granite-chinned Aussie Dan Hooker.
My small takeaway from what I have seen (and have heard) of Chandler is that he relies much more on the threat of his tools (as effective as they are) than actually using them in the way that Oliveira does.
Along with the possibility that Oli’s effective range might well be longer; he is a very good kicker, both to the legs and snap kicks up the middle, he is quite possibly going to be able to jam Chandler’s pressure before Chandler can get it rolling, and if his kicks take effect then Oliveira has a chance to physically degrade him over time too. Oli’s increased comfort under fire, on the feet at least, should stand him in good stead, surviving the odd howitzer until he wears Chandler down.
Barring Chandler cleaning his clock in round 1, I’ll be leaning towards a Charles Oliveira TKO, possibly in 3/4
Ben Kohn: Chandler bombing Oliveira out in the first is a real possibility, but barring that, the dynamics of this fight are as follows in my mind.
Chandler’s durability - if he really is faded somewhat in that respect, it’s going to end badly should Oliveira survive the blitzes early. Oliveira’s been able to hold his own in firefights recently, and he doles out a lot of damage these days.
Grappling - If Chandler is unwilling to engage in the grappling, I think that is going to end badly for him. He’s very capable and his wrestling is much better than most, so he should be able to stay safe in exchanges and at least do some damage. A lot of the guys who beat Oliveira have done so by confidently engaging with him on the ground and just laying out a steady stream of damage until he breaks.
From a strategic perspective, Chandler will need to keep Oliveira on the back foot, and at least early Oliveira will likely oblige him. Changing levels and landing to the body is imperative. While Chandler uses a ton of energy, he has a ridiculous gas tank and can push a crazy pace. Oliveira has seemingly faded in the past with faster paces, so combining pace and body work will drain Oliveira.
Oliveira will need to be careful with taking big shots early, but using his intercepting knees and kicks, attacking the legs early and often, and just kicking Chandler’s body to shreds will give him his best chance. It will be interesting to see if he can get Chandler to enter the pocket taller, because we’ve seen fighters get stuck in his clinch/taken down from there when they do that. Neither of them are especially sound defensively, so the durability of both likely gets tested.
Overall, I think I’m going to slightly favor Oliveira to win. I’m not overly confident, and a pressuring, explosive wrestler-boxer isn’t a great matchup overall. We don’t have a real analogy to compare Oliveira to either, but this is me riding with my guy Chucky Olives. The path to victory, either KO or sub, is there. It’s close enough that I don’t mind picking with my feelings a bit. Charles Oliveira by KO 3.
Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush
Julian: This is likely going to be a repeat of the Oli loss for Ferguson. He didn’t show up at all against Oliveira and he likely won’t against Dariush. This isn’t a rub against Dariush, in that Oliveira proved that Ferguson’s scrambling for position/submission isn’t the great weapon that it’s hyped up to be. Coupled by the fact that Ferguson’s striking slowly deteriorated, moving away from his old slip and rip counter and I think Dariush has a rather easy time getting in on him. Low kicking and body kicking Ferguson, while later running a long lancing left straight should keep Ferguson thinking to set up the takedowns. I doubt Dariush will have much of an issue holding Ferguson down, so this might be a wash. Dariush. UD.
Sriram: I’ve doubted Dariush’s resurgence at essentially every step, and it’s been a very pleasant exercise in being completely incorrect. After his rough stretch of losses to Barboza and Hermandez -- whose athleticism subsidized their comparative lack of cleverness in different ways against Dariush -- and a draw against the iron-tough Evan Dunham, Dariush just visibly gained back his confidence with every single win, and now he fights like a man who thinks he can’t die even if a part of him wants to. From gritty showings like Dober and Klose to clean jabby-southpaw shutouts like Camacho and Holtzman (where I believe he took about two clean strikes total between the two), Dariush regaining the confidence of the promotion to get him out of unranked hell has been a fairly diverse journey, and outpacing Carlos Diego Ferreira (who seemed to be the sort of opponent to take advantage of Dariush’s ever-present physical limitations) was a bit of a shock as well. The man can’t help but impress.
The fact that it’s mostly impressive relative to those limitations means that there’s a fairly hard ceiling on how far Dariush can probably go -- where the athletes go from “really good” to “unkillable, inexhaustible, and impossible to take a shot from” -- but Tony Ferguson doesn’t seem like one of those guys anymore. At least, if he is one of those guys, it’s navigable by Dariush through the wrestling and the truncated length of the fight (where Ferguson is the definition of a five-round fighter). I’d expect Dariush to start struggling later in the fight, but he’s a very effective top-player with a strategy for takedowns in his last fight that was energy-intensive but reliable (creating pocket exchanges to shoot behind), and Ferguson’s propensity to play a guard game means that a lot of the fight might be wrapped up in trying to make somethi.ng from an unfavorable spot (and while Michael Chiesa did manage to submit Dariush in a moment, that isn’t the most reliable way to fight him). Ferguson’s still a sneaky hard hitter and might still have the ability to put together the sort of wild pressure showcase he even managed in 2019, where Dariush’s shoddy defense in the pocket and conditioning might hurt him, but Ferguson’s tendency to square up on the inside and his uprightness will likely make Dariush’s task of winning exchanges with crazy overhand-flurries and shooting to alleviate pressure even easier. It’s a competitive fight, as Dariush struggled against high-tier athletes for a reason and Ferguson ate them up for a reason as well, but this seems like the right time for Uno Anjos to get a win his athletic brother couldn’t. Dariush via UD.
Iggy: Ever since Dariush released the beast it’s been a hell of a fun ride to just immediately assume Long Back Benny demolishes every single top lightweight by randomly flying into a frothing-at-the-mouth, crazed berserker rage, and Benny himself stated in multiple interviews that the plan is to “out-crazy” Ferguson, which, if true, is something that I’m dying to see. That said, Beneil doesn’t really need to do anything insane in order to beat Tony — the Oliveira fight demonstrated that one needs to possess a willingness to press forward fearlessly and a strong positional top control grappling game, and you’re all set, provided you have the right tools to implement that sort of gameplan. Dariush has both these qualities in spades.
Having said that, it’s not fair to simply write Tony off just yet — this is a man who was able to hang in there for almost five full rounds against one of the biggest hitters in the division in Justin Gaethje and continue pressing forward despite being met with cruise missiles to the face every single time. The Oliveira fight was telling and almost embarrassing in a way, but not a total indictment. While Tony’s bottom game has been notoriously overrated by a large number of fans, it doesn’t mean it’s suddenly completely impotent.
And to reinforce Sriram’s point about Tony being a sneakily hard hitter: don’t forget that Tony was able to drop Justin Gaethje, and most of his opponents save for Chucky Olives and Gaethje ended up with their faces beaten to a bloody pulp. If there is still a shred of that man in there, Dariush may be in trouble if he isn’t able to navigate Tony’s reckless self-sacrificing boxing style — and certain aspects of Tony’s grappling game, while ill-suited to handle control grapplers, still offer enough risks to perhaps give Beneil some pause which may prove crucial for Tony the longer the fight goes. This fight is also an incredibly competitive matchup that is very hard to predict, and this one may also just about end up devolving into back-and-forth insanity for the ages, and I would very much enjoy it if that ended up being the case.
I genuinely very much enjoy both these gentlemen and either man winning would make me very happy, but since Sriram already made his Dariush pick, I suppose I’ll have to be the one to pick Tony via TKO after 2 rounds of balls-to-the-wall violence.
Ben: Honestly, Dariush should just look to enforce a grappling heavy game. His takedowns are solid and Tony is clearly declined somewhat. He’s powerful enough to hurt Tony with punches, and his BJJ is exceptional. I think we see another excellent performance from Dariush here. Beneil Dariush via UD, potentially even a technical sub since Tony probably doesn’t tap.
Mateusz: Honestly, a lot of this prediction is predicated on my fear for how physically degraded Tony Ferguson has become.
His loss against Gaethje was a horrible beating for sure, and he didn’t look as sharp as fast as he did in the past in that fight to begin with. And against Oliveira in his last fight, also admittedly someone who is in his respective prime, he just looked a step behind from the start.
Now, Beneil is not a physical phenom, and neither is he a spring chicken himself at 32, but he is undoubtedly surging at the minute, while Tony appears to be receding quickly.
And as Iggy says, getting grappled by Chucky Olives and beaten bloody by Gaethje are hardly indictments. However, Oliveira didn’t really try to push the limits of Tony’s potentially diminished durability, and Dariush is himself an extremely proficient grappler.
TL;DR, Oliveira showed that Ferg’s grappling is below the level of the very best, and Dariush is amongst the very best on the ground. He has also been unapologetically been bombing people out of the cage of late too, so I’m fearing Ferg’s age and mileage are finally catching up to him. Long Back may not finish him, Ferg might not be that shot yet- I think Beneil may hurt Ferg on occasion, without being able to finish, before remembering how grappling worked for Oli for a straightforward win- so sadly, I’m predicting a Benny UD. Ferg’s my boy, so I’m hoping for a Tony resurgence, but I can’t see it.
Shane Burgos vs. Edson Barboza
Iggy: Burgos should by all rights run through Barboza unless he has a horrific lapse in judgement and just plain stops in the middle of the cage for whatever reason and lets Barboza do his thing. Burgos is usually considered one of those “too dumb to fail” type fighters and yet in his latest outing against Emmett he’s been punished consistently for this trait, which may lead to some tentativeness early on from Burgos — but trying to predict things like that is a crapshoot when a fighter is still fairly young and there’s too little data to base your predictions off of. Durability is weird, and so is individual fighters’ psychology.
Barboza meanwhile had demonstrated especially bizarre decision-making in his fight against Amirkhani, forgoing even his kicks even though by all rights they should have been his best weapon against Mr. Finland. So really, it’s like any Barboza fight. Every single one. Burgos should go after Barboza, or he deserves to get beat up by Barboza. Not knowing how to handle Edson at this point is akin to failing a test that determines whether you can be considered a sentient being. That said, Barboza is still a very tough customer that can take a beating and keep hanging on in there with the best of them. Burgos by UD.
Sriram: Think Burgos is reaching a point where he’s one of the most weirdly misunderstood fighters in the sport. The uber-aggressive way he fights demands a great deal of his defense -- a load that very few fighters ever can effectively manage against the competition he’s faced -- and the fact that he can win at all provides substantiation to his raw defensive skills being well above-average. Burgos’ low hands and consistent pressure mean that he’s always in the line of fire, but he’s consistently terrific at slipping straights, riding wider shots, and getting behind his shoulders -- and this sort of toolset dovetails beautifully with his offensive process, where he flusters his opponent into throwing and drowns them in a whirlwind of cross-counters and bodywork in the pocket. Where Burgos has struggled is in modulating his approach, most notably against the two most dynamic threats he faced -- Calvin Kattar’s absolutely insane depth of game and offensive potency might’ve been a surprise going into their fight, but Josh Emmett’s nuclear power definitely wasn’t, and yet Burgos relied on seeing their shots and navigating those margins as confidently as he did against Makwan Amirkhani or Tiago Trator. That isn’t to say he did a bad job of it at all, both fights were incredibly competitive, but playing a high-risk game against a man who won’t let you slip up once without threatening an instant loss isn’t what a strategically keen fighter does. Burgos showed in his fight against Cub Swanson that he can hang back a bit -- letting the veteran come to him and countering with jabs and left hooks, and kicking him up on entries (which he also did against Emmett very well) -- but it isn’t a way he likes to fight, and Burgos’ attributes have generally let him fight the way he likes.
Burgos’ general insistence upon his sort of game can lead to nothing but success against Edson Barboza, given that he sticks to it. Barboza’s not a bad counterpuncher or pocket-boxer in his sort of fight -- he showed it in his fights against Pettis and Hooker, for instance -- but he’s so insanely inefficient on the backfoot and thus thoroughly unprepared to deal with heavy pressure. With his feet going haywire with every step backwards, Burgos shouldn’t really have much trouble winning pocket exchanges and exhausting Barboza with the dynamic alone. At range, like essentially any fight, Barboza could deal a ton of damage to Burgos -- Burgos hasn’t ever dealt with a kicker as strong, and the sort of darting sneaky-long straight lead with which Barboza shocked Amirkhani is exactly the sort of trick that might catch Burgos bare the first few times -- but he has no tools to keep Burgos off him nor the composure to fight that sort of fight moving back. Combined with a weight cut that diminishes his speed edge (and led to the Ige fight, where he fought fine but looked like a skeleton with muscles painted on), and it’s hard to see this going well. It’s somewhat reminiscent of Barboza’s fight against Tony Ferguson -- but where Ferguson’s pace and pressure made up for his glaring defensive and positional shortcomings, Burgos has even far fewer of those. Shane Burgos via TKO3.
Dan Albert: Congratulations, Shane. You get the Barboza test. Will you do the smart things and pressure him back to the fence because you need to pressure him and draw counters out and punish them – and also noting that he cannot throw good kicks on the backfoot without collapsing his stance? I mean, sometimes he’ll channel that one spinning tops anime and embrace velocity while missing in tremendous fashion and he can be a bit on the fast side, but, I mean, this should be a no-brainer even if you do the things you did before, right?
Shane Burgos is a tactician and that’s his blessing and curse. Blessing in that he’s genuinely great at building offense based upon his reads of what his opponents offer. The problem is that he has to constantly build – starting fast, but only – as has been pointed out by members of this staff before – mostly around offensive purposes without too much defensive allocations. He’s obscenely durable and impossible to fully back off without taking some back, especially attritionally. Edson Barboza has his set distance and ideas, but his problems are a well-established facet for anyone who pays any attention. Burgos at least pays attention to establishing offense, so I have to have some credence in thinking that Barboza will have his moments because Burgos let’s opponents have moments, but it will be his fight if he does what he historically does. At the very least, it’ll be worth wondering where Burgos can go if he can at least change some of his aforementioned tendencies. Burgos by late TKO.
Julian: Burgos does a lot of things that can seriously trouble Barboza. He’s a volume body puncher and consistently runs his face forward for better or for worse. His defense is clearly lacking given ALL of his fights, but at the same time what has Barboza shown us that tells us he’s made a conscious decision to get off the fence? None really, but Barboza’s power and speed has still translated in a lower weight class, which leads me to think that Burgos is going to get lance running in and struggle to enforce his gameplan. Barboza. Split.
Ben: I mean, if Burgos pressures consistently he overwhelms Barboza. He will definitely eat shots early though. Edson is still fast, even as a FW. If Burgos doesn’t get dropped or hurt, he can get the timing on Edson’s pretty rote combinations and land bombs of his own. Of the two, Burgos should be able to gain momentum as the fight goes on, his dedicated body work will help slow Barboza down. If he doesn’t eat a huge shot and get murdered, I think he wins a decision or maybe gets a late TKO. Shane Burgos by UD/late TKO.
Mateusz: well, this DOES seem straightforward on paper, doesn’t it. Burgos likes pressure and Barboza fucking HATES it. Well, that’s a wrap, then.
Well maybe not, because Barboza is fast a shit, even, as Ben says, ar FW, and Burgos’ footwork is kinda plodding, and his defence is, er, sub-optimal. Sure, he moves his head, sometimes. But he doesn’t take cues, such as ‘oh this dude punched my face until I was dizzy, I best move it’, such as against Emmett.
And his legs and body seem eminently kickable. Meanwhile, Gaethje loss aside, Barboza is tough as nails, and is accurate and quick with the strikes, and has shown a willingness to trade down at his new weightclass (although Burgos is stoopid big at the weight and will likely be bigger).
That said, if Barboza does try to trade with Burgos in the pocket I’ll have no sympathy when he loses - this would be Burgos’ ideal fight, frankly.
He would be better served taking the path he did vs Hooker; beat the everloving shite out of a slow opponent’s legs and body while they’re trying to move in on you, and avoid the pocket. NB; Hooker, in that fight, stated outright he was going to be having a mid-range kicking contest with Barboza, and while I don’t expect Burgos to be dumb enough to claim as much pre-fight I’m not expecting much more in the way of smarts in cage from him.
He’s very effective once he has an opponent rolling backwards, or has managed to get in close and has a feel for their rhythm in the pocket (then, his head movement IS capable of being rather good), but, Barboza has shown that he has the tools to mitigate the threats that Burgos can bring from further out. Barboza by TKO, Rnd 3