UFC 259 - The Fight Site Staff Picks
Photo courtesy of the Ultimate Fighting Championship
UFC 259 is an early Card of the Year contender for 2021. Three title fights highlight the main card, and the prelims are littered with quality matchups between established names and interesting prospects and contenders. The main event sees middleweight champion Israel Adesanya moving up in weight to challenge newly minted light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. Two-weight champion Amanda Nunes looks to add to her resume with another title defense, this time against lanky striker Megan Anderson. The analysts’ favorite fight of the night is for the UFC bantamweight title - surging force Petr Yan takes on the rightful #1 contender, the American wrestler and grappler Aljamain Sterling.
Check out some of our staff’s breakdowns and predictions for the two men’s title fights, undeniably the most intriguing bouts on the card. You can catch the roundtable podcast discussion of Yan-Sterling and Adesanya-Blachowicz here, and don’t forget to listen to this week’s MMA Podcast to get some quality insights into the City Kickboxing gym.
Israel Adesanya vs. Jan Blachowicz (UFC LHW Championship)
Sriram Muralidaran: There isn’t a more interesting new fight for Adesanya on the horizon at this point, which speaks to how thoroughly Adesanya has beaten the ones that actually make sense for him to fight; Robert Whittaker still exists as a top talent but Adesanya put him away in 2019, the other contenders have losses to one of those top two, Magomed Ismailov is stuck in Russia brawling with Vladimir Mineev, and suddenly there’s no one else. Adesanya/Jones seems like a fantastical prospect at best, and honestly (to me, at least) never seemed particularly interesting with Jones’ wrestling threat severely atrophied to start with. This leaves Jan Blachowicz in an odd position, with no reason to be beating the guy coming up except for the upper-weight risks of power and size, and that still serving as the best challenge Adesanya is likely to face up at 205.
That probably spoiled the pick I’m making, which is fine because it seems like a fairly easy pick. Blachowicz is a really odd fighter, in that he shows more glimpses of “technical-looking” boxing than most 205ers while also having most of his meaningful offense being massive blitzing flurries; he’s not a concerted pressure fighter, more of an outside fighter against fighters who don’t concede space (Cannonier, Manuwa), but also never seems to care about squaring up in the face of bigger threats. He can play a solid jab-left hook game that unraveled Cannonier and his punching into kicks took out both Latifi and Reyes, but anything he does that’s not a single shot off his lead hand entails him breaking his stance and wading forward. Even to set those bodykicks up, his game is to shift forward and trust that his opponent doesn’t want to do anything but back up, and (while that’s something to watch for if Adesanya decides to go for that long lean back) Adesanya’s footwork probably cuts those efforts off before they get started. Adesanya was able to consistently break the line on Robert Whittaker’s fantastic blitzing game to gain the positional edge, so just handing it to him on the counter is an awful place to start.
Aside from that (which I expect to be the dominant narrative of the fight), Blachowicz did lose a kicking match at range to Thiago Santos’ more rudimentary kicking arsenal before getting drawn into the counter, and his clinchgame against Souza was notably anemic; these aren’t ranges that Adesanya gives up easily, even to fighters who are genuinely potent there. Jan’s wins over strong open-side kickers are one thing, but those kickers were nothing but strong; Adesanya’s variety and his ability to play them off one another is beyond the skillset of a Rockhold or Reyes, and Adesanya’s also proven fairly strong on the inside with his shots off wrist control and his framing. Jan isn’t incompetent on the counter for a 205er, but that qualifier says enough, and Adesanya’s feinting game makes counterpunching daunting even for those without it. Jan fights in a way that presents him too much risk here, and his durability and size might make it look competitive but likely not for long. Adesanya via KO3.
Ed: It’s hard to think of consistent paths for Jan Blachowicz to trouble Israel Adesanya. His counter punching has been one of the main reasons for his recent success, but those moments came against far sloppier boxers than Adesanya, and in situations I can’t possibly imagine Adesanya putting himself into. On the lead, Blachowicz is the one who is begging to be countered (see: Thiago Santos fight). He has a powerful kicking game, but it’s mostly naked leads, and his kicking defense is typically most effective against single strikes as well. He did a nice job against Reyes causing backward motion from his opponent before he kicked, if he’s more consistent about that it could be an avenue. However, the aforementioned sloppy boxing leads would be a huge issue for him. He can be fairly stingy defensively, but there aren’t many reasons to trust him down the stretch when Adesanya lays the groundwork with his feints and varied strike selection. Because of Blachowicz’s limitations on the lead, I do think Adesanya will get the time and space to get to work and build the way he likes to. While Blachowicz can be fairly strong and controlling in the clinch, Adesanya has proven to be great at controlling ties and leveraging into his own positions in that space, it doesn’t seem like somewhere you could continually stick him. Likewise, Blachowicz doesn’t really have a consistently demonstrated game for shooting takedowns and threatening Adesanya with his top game, which is decent. I believe Blachowicz has the skills to stay in the fight for a couple of rounds, but I expect things to turn by round 3 and trend toward one-way traffic. Adesanya by Unanimous Decision.
Kyle McLachlan: I can’t even see this being very competitive. I did not pick Jan to beat Reyes, but it’s clear to me that 205 is at its lowest ebb, and even a decent 185lber would be expected to do well there. The best 185lber? Arguably the best striker in the whole sport? He’ll do just fine. Jan will burn a lot of nervous energy trying not to engage. Unlike Yoel Romero, he won’t be able to stay with it for very long at all. He’ll get tired, he’ll leap in, and he’ll get wiped out. Israel Adesanya by KO round 3.
Ben Kohn: Izzy is faster, more athletic, a better technical striker, and craftier fighter on the feet. Unless Jan can leverage his size and surprise us by just being able to dominate Izzy on the ground, I don’t see much in the way of a path to victory for him. He’s content to sit on the outside, but he can be convinced to do his marching blitzes, and against a sniper like Izzy, that will not end well. Jan is durable enough, and I imagine he hangs out at range for a few rounds before feeling he needs to come forward. Izzy will feint and kick at him from range, annoying Jan enough that he feels he has to come in, and crack him repeatedly. I see this being rather boring until it’s not. Israel Adesanya via TKO round 3 or 4.
Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling (UFC LHW Championship)
Ed: This is easily one of the best fights available in MMA today. You have the champion Petr Yan - one of the best boxers in the sport, an intimidating pressure fighter who has rounded out his skills over the years with Tiger Muay Thai and finally started to leverage his pace and cardio in five round UFC fights. Across from him will be Aljamain Sterling - the rightful #1 contender. Sterling has worked his way up to the top of the division after fighting just about every ranked fighter available, and he’s looking in career-best form. Sterling’s size and top game, combined with improving striking and a volume kicking game make him incredibly tough to deal with for fighters who aren’t equipped to hold off an imposing grappler.
As usual when it comes to a “striker vs. grappler matchup”, the top factor I look toward is ringcraft. Aljamain Sterling has had his best wrestling performances when he is able to pressure - his transitional game of volume fakes and level changes can freeze his opponents on the cage and allow him to shoot into favorable positions and get to work. We saw that best in his fights against Renan Barao, Cody Stamann and most recently Cory Sandhagen. However, Sterling has more often opted to attempt to outfight and lean on his kicking game, timing his wrestling entries from space. He’s had mixed success with that approach, and notably completed 0 of his attempted takedowns in fights with Raphael Assuncao, Jimmie Rivera and Pedro Munhoz. Of course, he won two of those fights. Much of this can be attributed to some mechanical issues with his wrestling game in reactive situations, which I explained in further detail in our prediction panel and podcasts this week. On the other hand you have Petr Yan, one of the most intentional and consistent pressure fighters in MMA today.
Yan’s looks against committed wrestlers and grapplers have been limited, but the best example continues to be his pair of fights with Magomed Magomedov in ACB. If you haven’t seen those fights yet, you are depriving yourself of amazing entertainment and valuable information. Magomedov may not be the same physical threat or a totally comparable grappler to Aljamain Sterling, but the way he approached wrestling and striking in his fights with Yan definitely mirror some of the factors we can anticipate in this upcoming bout. Those fights showed us exactly how Yan can optimize his approach when he knows he’s facing someone whose main goal is to take him down. The strike selection changes, he relies more on his clinch game to maintain cage position, break off and continue to throw and pressure, and he is able to funnel Magomedov into positions where he is more skilled and comfortable defending wrestling. As the attritional fighter in this matchup, five rounds favor Yan, and I believe it will be up to Sterling to either push for a finish early, or attempt to control Yan for the majority of the fight. That’s a tall order - on the other hand Yan will have a far greater number of opportunities to do serious damage and exploit some of Sterling’s defensive habits in exchanges and in his wrestling game, including his habit on leaning forward with his arms out for takedown attempts while under pressure.
There are instances from other fights (Son, Dodson) that might suggest trouble for Yan vs. Sterling, but I think it’s important to notice the differences in strike selection and overall approach when you’re fighting and preparing for a wrestler grappler as opposed to a striker. It’s an incredibly close fight, and there are many important details that I haven’t covered here (but do, in our other content this week!), but I’m picking Petr Yan via R4 TKO.
Sriram: With wrestling being such an important dynamic, this isn’t a fight that I feel very confident to speak about -- that said, there are some dynamics on the feet that should affect how the wrestling is applied. The most important is Yan’s early feeling-out -- against another attrition and building fighter who likes the front foot in Cory Sandhagen, Sterling denied him of that immediately with his physicality and aggression to get to the cagewrestling, and Yan isn’t the liability there that Sandhagen is but does take a second to settle into the front-foot buzzsaw role he’s so phenomenal at playing (and his tendency to wrestle out of ground situations leaves backtakes very much in play for Sterling). This is one reason I believe most of Sterling’s win condition is contained in a sub1 -- it’s the path of least resistance for Sterling, if he can find it, against a fighter who’s designed to keep the cage as far from his back at all times when it gets deeper. That said, Yan’s clinch is a massive barrier that Aljamain probably struggles to overcome, even early; Yan’s constantly fishing for wrists inside, he’s incredibly difficult to slow down, and he’s absurdly punishing from positions where he has wrists or collar ties. Yan’s likely command of the entries (via his command of the exchanges) and his doggedness in maintaining wrists seem to make bodylocking tough if he’s not shocked by aggression, and that leaves the less polished shots on the legs in the open that Sterling has failed numerous times in his recent run. Rivera and Munhoz are more proven pure defensive wrestlers than Petr Yan, but if Yan’s kept the fight off the fence early, half the battle seems won.
In the striking, the fight seems really tough for Aljamain Sterling. Aljo’s developed strong lateral movement and solid counterpunching, with his right hook and jab dictating the fight later against Pedro Munhoz’s iron head, but he’s fundamentally not a pocketfighter; his improvements are built to keep his opponent off him while he tries to establish an all-the-way-out or all-the-way-in game, the way he did to take away the range of the phenomenal Jimmie Rivera. The difference between those fighters and Yan is in the soundness of their pressure -- as Yan’s footwork to cut the cage off is fantastic, and his educated shifting offense gives him more options to quickly cover distance than the plodding Munhoz or the very traditionalist Rivera. Sterling’s struggle with the bodywork against Munhoz says bad things against such a ruthlessly attritive fighter in Yan (an absolutely sadistic bodypuncher), and his predictable defensive reactions (ducking down against Munhoz) seem likely to be exploited by one of the best tactical adjusters in the sport.
So it’s a tale of two fights; Sterling seems to have a great deal of early finishing upside, where Yan has more time overall to get it done if he can run the early danger. Sterling should hold a belt right now, it’s a crime that he doesn’t, but Yan seems like a really tricky fight for him; competent in areas that Sterling needs to bulldoze for an early finish, and nearly guaranteed to take over as the fight continues. Risky, near 50/50 fight, but I’ll go with the official reigning champion to actually earn his belt. Petr Yan via TKO5.
Dan Albert: I think Aljamain Sterling is a tremendous fighter, however, I’m not convinced Petr Yan is right for him. I can’t comment on the ground fight or dynamics all that much, however, I will say that it might be a mistake to classify weaknesses of Cory Sandhagen to other fighters in the division. Sandhagen’s tactics to difficult situations tend to fight offense with offense or be dynamic as applicable. That is to say, his defensive ringcraft tends to be conceding situations with too much confidence he can compete his way out of them. Against Sterling, the one guy on the ground you don’t want to fight dynamism with dynamism, that proved to be the biggest problem versus someone with a dedicated gameplan (e.g. pressure, get him to the cage, take him down/get his back, force him to scramble, trap and tap him). I’m not equipped to really talk full details, but I would argue Yan is a more processed fighter in the grappling phases of a fight as the likes of Sandhagen and more likely to set up situations to escape before trying to escape first. Of course, this doesn’t eliminate the prospect of a Sterling submission – a viable possibility if only for accounting the teleport-to-the-back bullshit. I’d just need to see it to believe it before conceding to the whole Sterling will shred Yan on the ground narrative. Magomedov isn’t quite the danger Sterling is, but Yan did compete with him there for a reason.
Where the basis of my analysis comes from is the standup. Although I think Yan is far weaker on the backfoot and has yet to truly prove himself there, he notably is not put on the backfoot that easily either. Rivera and Aldo had to fight some of the most disciplined positional and pocket (or pocket denials) of their career to constantly keep Yan at the end of their reach and not get pushed back as easily. These tools also made it easier to attack Yan’s legs. That is, Yan can be kicked, but it is often done most effectively because of the threats other opponents employ to make it work. Aljo’s fights indicate he’s become an aggressive kicker and reliant upon closing the door, though he will constantly telegraph these attacks and compromise his stance in the process. His pace and physicality is usually enough to overwhelm or keep a commanding lead. Nonetheless, he is constantly vulnerable, especially to the body and when he resets or level changes. Aljo’s defensive ringcraft is even more of a concern because he will rely upon volume to keep opponents off and away, which opens up more opportunities for a willing scrapper. Against someone with Yan’s acumen for punishing and reading openings and building momentum + Yan’s experience after a five-rounder where he had to adjust outside of his comfort zone versus Aldo, the question is and always will be: If Aljo cannot make Yan back off and up, how much can he afford to do what he did versus Munhoz and, what’s even more precedential, to get punished and finished the way Moraes did him in. Ultimately, I have to believe that Yan finishes this fight by KO/TKO possibly in the second round at earliest. This fight’s dynamic will likely be decided in the first round, barring any alterations and surprises, but my basis for Yan is that, when a vast majority of situations seem to allocate in his favor, I have to go with my gut on this one and trust a fighter I feel is more proven. There aren’t many I would pick to beat Aljo – Yan is one of the scant at 135lbs. I’d write more here, but Edward kept me on a leash to not write my typically-pretentiously long diatribes.
Haxxorized: Aljo is a genuinely great fighter who proves again and again the importance of self-awareness. His natural offensive grappling game needs no introduction, as creative and dynamic as it is. Likewise, his vastly improved understanding of simple variables like timing, rhythm and patience have transformed his striking, doing much to make him a multi-layered threat. The problem for me is that his game still lacks something coherent to bind his striking and wrestling into one harmonious outfit, especially in the pocket. He does a fine job of using one to annoy or bait reactions to the other, but when it comes to imposing or forcing gaps for striking->wrestling transitions to shine through, he is less tested. The Munhoz fight still makes me a little uneasy here. That said, his admirable eagerness to bite down and use volume and jank to cover flaws in-fight and his remarkable growth has meant so far, that's been more than enough.
The problem is he's fighting Yan. And I don't want to come across as if I think that Yan is light-years ahead of Aljo as a fighter - they're both exceptional, both to me seem top10-15 p4p at minimum, off the back of doing a lot of great things. I feel Yan enjoys advantages not only in his 'game' being more cohesive in welding his standup to his clinch and wrestling capabilities, but that he do it over five while taking a shellacking to the body. His willingness to make adaptations against a kicker sitting behind as many defensive layers as Jose Aldo, or patience in timing key observations to clinch rounds late against a pocket-boxer of Rivera's ability ... they matter for a five-round fighter. Doubly so to a methodical pressure-fighter walking down an Aljo who has shown confidence in his open-space wrestling that doesn't quite jive with his results. Ed's podcast appearance will no doubt spend plenty of time talking about that.
As good as Aljo is, his win conditions here feel well ... jankier? Outside work to diffuse Yan’s pressure and reads early is a good move, but it would undermine a quicker finish. Early, aggressive wrestling built on athleticism and forward threat could manufacture grappling opportunities but risks more pocket exchanges, mid-range boxing moments and brute-forcing through Yan's cagecraft, body-pressure and defensive clinch.. Successful wrestling from the clinch seems compulsory, and to accomplish this, Aljo probably needs to keep forcing it - a tough ask. Meanwhile, Yan's win condition feels pretty simple - walk him down, force pocket exchanges, lean on your athletic advantages in the clinch where needed, and keep hitting the body. Every part links together quite nicely, which makes it seem a lot easier to impose over five, especially given Yan’s great cagecraft shown in his career so far.
Simply put, this is one of those fights where both fighters being just so fucking good at MMA that 1-2% results in a one-sided beating, and those go a little more towards Yan than Aljo.
Kyle McLachlan: Going to go with Aljo, simply because he’s bigger, and simply because I want all the Yan stans--my own colleagues included--to question their ability to analyse fights after he gets taken down and submitted. All jokes aside, as janky as Aljo is, I think the lack of depth to his striking in the open will get found out the longer the fight progresses. I think early on Yan will take a while to get his reads and may well look dumb as Aljo keeps it at range with his superior speed, but the challenger will be limited to single strikes IMO. Yan has a much deeper well to reach into, his feints and mixing up of striking and grappling should keep Aljo guessing, and his striking will keep Aljo moving around at a pace he is not wanting to keep. As much a superior pure wrestler as Aljo is, Yan is a superior clinch striker. It may get ugly as the fight progresses, and I can see Aljo looking great for rounds one and two, ragged in round three, and an absolute mess by the championship rounds. TLDR; Aljo early or Yan late. Yan by TKO round 4.
Ben: I could talk about my reads on this fight, or you could go check out the article I put together on this fight. In summation, I’m picking Aljo to win this fight because Yan has openings that Aljo is uniquely suited to taking advantage of in the clinch. Aljamain Sterling by submission (likely a RNC), round 1 or 2.
Philippe: I really think that Sterling has improved a lot in the last two years. He’s always been wild and unpredictable, but nowadays, his striking is very good for MMA -- transitioning from striking to wrestling very naturally. I also like how he uses his reach and speed to be in and out as much as possible, and how he's one of the rare UFC fighters to set up his punches behind his kicks. After rewatching his fight with Pedro Munhoz, I realised how good Aljamain’s shot selection and diversity of attack were in that fight. Of course, none of that equals the sharp and methodical striking abilities of the champion. If Petr gives up reach and maybe speed, he definitely keeps an edge in power and rhythm manipulation. Aljo really tends to go 100 all the time, where Petr Yan became excellent at fighting at his own pace and never letting his opponent dictate the pace of the fight. I don’t think Aljamain can go 25 minutes with Yan without taking tons of damage in the latter rounds or getting knocked out…but I really want (expect) him to start that fight super fast -- not letting Yan make reads and using that unpredictable style to its best early.
I think many of my colleagues here already mentioned the great capacity of Yan in reading his opponent’s habits and set ups. He’s really one of the best at it. So that fight to me truly is all about the first two rounds. Aljamain will have to be at his best -- taking risks, throwing a lot of volume, and surprising Petr with a standing submission or a way to get his back. No doubt Yan has great grappling and the exchanges between both men on the ground could be epic, but I believe Aljo can submit Petr Yan early in the fight if Aljo’s always first in the striking and grappling exchanges. Therefore, I’ll pick Aljamain Sterling via submission in round 2.