Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan Pre-Fight Breakdown: The Clinch
Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC
Despite my slipping sanity, I am still capable of recognizing the obvious - Petr Yan is one of the best fighters in the world right now and is a serious threat to have a solid reign at the top. But like many fighters, he is not without his flaws. Enter Aljamain Sterling.
Aljo is, at this point, a UFC veteran, making his debut over 6 years ago. 14 fights later, and in his prime at 31 years old, he’s getting his first title shot….and is frankly being counted out by much of the fanbase, with Yan is sitting at around a 2-1 favorite at the time I write this. Considering Aljo hasn’t lost in 2 years, and it was a flash KO loss to Marlon Moraes, it feels like many are just overlooking the unique challenge Aljo presents to Yan.
I do want to be clear, Yan winning is not a remotely surprising outcome. Aljo’s flaws play well into Yan’s game, which is what makes this such an interesting matchup to me in the first place. This is a pick’em fight for me, and those are the fights that excite me the most, especially at a weight class like bantamweight.
What I want to specifically focus on is not how they match on the feet, there are better people for that. I don’t think it’s necessary to discuss their grappling either, as there’s no doubt who’s the more accomplished and skillful submission grappler there. Yan is capable, but he’s likely going to just look to stay safe and stand up.
No, I am interested in the clinch, more specifically Yan’s tendency to give his opponents openings to initiate it, as well as his tendency to give his back at times to escape and get back to striking range. Aljamain also happens to be one of, if not the most dangerous, person to have on your back in MMA right now, and he’s damn good at getting there from the clinch, and frankly nearly anywhere else. Just watch his fight with Cory Sandhagen for proof of that.
Will Aljamain Sterling’s access to the clinch lead him to victory vs. Petr Yan?
These tendencies are rather specific in nature, but as we saw with my Oliveira video, noting something specific as it pertains to a fight can have much broader consequences in the fight itself. They don’t always come into play, as Yan may be able to force Aljo into a mid-range striking battle he can’t win, or Yan is too nervous to come forward and Aljo gets to use his length and kicking game with impunity, making this a weird range striking battle no one would have expected. Maybe Aljo blast doubles Yan and insta-subs him, and any of that can happen, but I think it’s worth exploring these technical nuances when trying to predict how a fight will play out, and why.
Anyone who watched Aljo’s previous fight with Cory Sandhagen knows just how dangerous he is when he gets to the back.
Both Aljo and Cory throw kicks, with Cory’s to the body. Aljo grabs a hold of the leg and briefly threatens a single leg before grabbing a body lock and forcing Cory to the cage. The next part is a bit difficult to see, because of the camera angle and UFC graphic, but Aljo drives Cory into the fence, grabbing his right hand/wrist, and using his deep underhook on Cory’s left side to drive him forward, towards the mat. Aljo is able to get Cory off-balance for a moment, using the underhook and wrist grip to trip him up and get his legs out from under him. Cory scrambles to quickly get his base back, and is releases the overhook to bring his arm around. Aljo’s transition to the back is seamless, and notice how he still has a strong grip on Cory’s far side wrist., which is why Cory needed the other hand back. He’s using this as an anchor point, as he’ll be hanging on Cory while climbing to the back. He uses his right leg as the second anchor point, pinning it to his hip bringing his weight over the right leg of Cory, opening up the space between Cory’s left elbow and his thigh ever so slightly. With the space created, he slides in his left hook with ease, Cory unable to block it at this point, secures his second hook, and pulls Cory back to begin working the RNC.
It’s not just a one off for Aljo, his clinch work, particularly as it pertains to his back takes, are among the most dangerous in the sport. It’s not something he needs to get specifically against the cage, as he’s looking for those opportunities in exchanges as well.
Aljo paws with the jab at range, trying to draw out hooks from Stamann against the cage. He backs out of the way of the big right hook, steps back into range and ducks under the left hook. He cinches up the body lock and drives Stamann to the cage, stepping his left leg in between Stamann’s legs and starts leaning his weight over the leg to drag him down. Stamann uses the bounce off the cage to front roll hard. Aljo’s posts with his left hand on the mat and clasps Stamann’s leg with his right. Between the post and the leg, he was able to maintain his weight over Stamann, who continued to try and kick Aljo off him. Aljo used this to slide his leg back, maintain control of Cody’s leg, before switching to a waist lock and settling into top position.
Aljo’s ability to find the moments in transition and exchanges are going to be a necessary component of any gameplan he puts together for Yan, specifically because of how Yan approaches his fights. We know Yan is going to come forward and pressure Aljo (to not do so would be both an odd choice, and a very bad one as well). Yan will often use the clinch and takedowns attempts in his own fight, mixing up the threats he presents to his opponents to land his shots. If he eliminates those components of his game from this fight, he’s going to be conceding those ranges to Aljo. If he doesn’t remove them, then we’re going to see some interesting moments I hope. Let’s take a look at various examples of openings in Yan’s entries for Aljo to get the clinch.
Yan paws with the jab and throws a looping right hook, which Jimmie ducks under, and they collide together. Take note of Yan’s right leg, which he tried wrapping around Jimmie’s leg, to use the momentum of his right to fall into a takedown attempt. Jimmie is working to take the back, but Yan’s leg placement prevents him from being able to climb to Yan’s back. He opts to begin landing right uppercuts as Yan recovers position, getting an underhook, grabbing Jimmie’s wrist to stop the punches, and lands some shots of his own as they separate.
Normally, Yan exhibiting those contingency plans during exchanges is something to laud, but it’s those choices that are exactly the type of moments that would get him in trouble with Aljo. He’s pressure game is elite, there’s no question, but it also has too many pieces involved that Aljo would be able to capitalize on as well.
Rivera, anticipating the right hook off the jab, ducks under and begins pivoting out. Yan ducks as well, anticipating a counter from Rivera, and they end up in colliding into the clinch once again. Yan attempts to grab a collar tie and Rivera immediately grabs an underhook to circle toward his back. Yan realizes his error and grabs the overhook, spinning with Rivera to stop the back take, but getting pushed back to the fence for his trouble.
It would be easy to point to this moment as a good sign for Yan, considering he stopped Rivera from taking his back here. But the issue is that he’s ending up in these spots in the first place, consistently, and that’s a real potential issue for him against Sterling, who is a far more skillful and committed grappler than Jimmie is.
These issues, at least as it pertains to this particular matchup, have been a part of his style and present throughout his UFC career. Let’s see some examples from his second UFC fight with Jin Soo Son.
Textbook reactive shot here from Son. Yan enters range, stepping deep and lowering his level to hide his left hook entry. Son ducks under and hits the double leg. However, it’s Yan’s reaction to the double leg that is the issue. He continues to turn, giving up his back in the process, to attempt to throw Son off him. It does not work, and Son is able to get control behind Yan. While Aljo is less traditionally explosive than Son, a reactive shot like this could give him those opportunities for scrambles to the back, especially because Yan has shown that to be his main reaction to getting taken down, to turn and try to disengage.
Let’s take a look at another entry that got Yan stuck in the clinch and taken down off a reactive shot once more.
From Southpaw this time, Yan throws a long left hook which Son slips out of the way of, making a beeline for Yan’s exposed back, clinching with him and grabbing a waistlock. Yan immediately grabs an overhook as he’s pushed to the fence, but he’s stuck in the clinch against the fence, exactly where he wouldn’t want to be against Aljo. Almost exactly the same sequence in the takedown clip as well, with Son ducking under a long left (a straight this time) and blasting through with a reactive double leg.
Now, I know what ya’ll might say to me. These are older fights and he’s improved” or “none of this was present in his Aldo fight”. Let me tell you how wrong you are, and please don’t question me again, thanks.
In this collection of moments from the fight, we see a lot of the exact same tendencies and positions that have gotten him into bad spots. These would be ideal opportunities for him to get clinched or taken down by Aljo in their upcoming fight. Winging punches that expose his back, barreling forward and clinching up willingly, conceding the underhook to get an overhook, collar tie, or land a strike, and exposing his hips in exchanges. Aldo was never going to be the guy to exploit these holes he’s providing, and his other opponents lacked the tools necessary, even when they tried, to punish him for them. This is what makes Aljo such a unique matchup for him, in that he can exploit those holes.
I do have to be clear, that the point of this piece is not to explain why I think Aljo is a surefire win here. On the contrary, this is an extremely dangerous fight for him. Yan is not only one of the best pressure fighters in MMA today, he’s a powerful puncher, pushes a hell of a pace, and is extremely tough to boot. He’s extremely well rounded, one of the best adjuster’s in the sport, and consistently builds on his successes as the fight goes on. Many of this fights aspects favor Yan, especially being a quintessential five round fighter. Aljamain is going to need to walk a tightrope to take advantage of the small openings Yan presents. Active kicking on the feet at range, try and push him back if possible, force Yan into exchanges that bring out wide arcing strikes, catch kicks if possible (something we’ve seen get Yan taken down with by Dodson, and Aljamain is decent at that as well). He’s going to need to make the most of the opportunities as they present themselves and not fold or cave to the pressure of Petr Yan. I think he has a chance to win this fight, a good one (a pick’em fight as I stated earlier). I’m hyped to see what happens, and would like to see these exchanges play out in the fight. March 6th can’t get here soon enough I’d say.
For some other excellent pieces on Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling, check out the links below.
In the Pocket with Aljamain Sterling - Tommy Elliot
Takedown Breakdown: Petr Yan’s Crafty Duck-Under - Ed Gallo
Petr Yan: The Future of the Bantamweight Division - Tommy Elliot
Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo: The King’s Lingering Sentiments - Dan Albert
Wrestling for MMA: The Entries of Aljamain Sterling - Ed Gallo