UFC 252: Staff Predictions
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
After their foray into Abu Dhabi (or “Fight Island”), the UFC has returned to Las Vegas to continue their pay-per-view schedule, this time with a heavyweight championship bout and the end of a trilogy that has captured the division for the last two years. It isn’t a weight-class begging for motion, exactly, but Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3 is meant to unquestionably determine the superior man as Cormier goes into retirement, and will make way for the few fresher challengers at the top of the division (including, perhaps in time, the winner of the other heavyweight bout on the main card). A Miocic win will have the division back where it was at the beginning of 2018, with the uniquely dominant champion likely having to address the marauding Francis Ngannou for a second time; if Cormier gets it done, he ends his career as one of the greatest-ever heavyweights, to add to his achievements at 205.
The other crucial fights are at men’s bantamweight, which has had a great deal of turnover at the top but also some brilliant prospects on the way up, and two of those prospects will face stiff veteran tests on August 15th. In the first, former title contender John Dodson will look to follow up his win over Nathaniel Wood by slowing the rise of relentless Georgian Merab Dvalishvili. In the co-main event, the rising Sean O’Malley looks to get a third 2020 KO1 against Marlon “Chito” Vera, one of the division’s premier action-fighters who arguably should’ve entered the 135 rankings in May. The Fight Site’s MMA team gives their predictions for how we expect the night to go, which prospects can make their mark, and who ends the night as the heavyweight king.
Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier III
Sriram Muralidaran: If I could trust Miocic to be smart, this would be a relatively open-and-shut fight. Cormier isn’t easy to beat on the basis of his athletic gifts and his absolute stubbornness at imposing his sort of fight -- a high-paced and ugly and grabby boxing match -- but Miocic seemed to find a replicable and relatively safe way of beating him at the end of the rematch, which was to punch his body until Cormier figured out how to stop it (and, therefore, punch his body forever). If Miocic shows the smarts that he did in the dos Santos rematch, for instance, to specifically attack the weaknesses he saw with the Brazilian, Cormier probably doesn’t stand a chance; Cormier isn’t a good defensive fighter to his head, let alone to his body, and he’s not a particularly good counterpuncher either. Miocic could left-hook Cormier at will to the body and the head late in the fight, and Cormier doesn’t seem to be able to consistently wrestle elites without gassing badly.
The issue is that Miocic took 17 minutes in the rematch to start bodypunching a man who’d been hurt to the body by anyone who hit him there. Miocic has long been one of the more thoughtful heavyweights, but that doesn’t make him particularly thoughtful in a vacuum, and it’s possible he comes into the third fight with “I’ll do what I do and figure it out as I go”, where Cormier’s relentless handfighting and his clinch obstruct Miocic’s A-game of straight-punching again. The fact that this is an IQ test for Miocic -- where it isn’t that for Cormier -- means I have to pick the incumbent champion, but it could easily turn into a disgusting fight between two heavyweights on the brink of aging out completely. Miocic by TKO2.
Aiden Hayes: I expect Cormier to have an adjustment to Stipe’s body work and perhaps a reversion to his more static double forearm guard that he showed in the Lewis fight. Cormier will likely try to pressure and corner Stipe, in hopes of making this fight ugly with his collar ties and transitional boxing work. Cormier showed a bit of a tighter guard strategy in round 1 of the second fight, using handfighting only as transitional tool to land his jab/lead hook and not as his only defensive tool, but he ultimately relied on handfighting once he gassed out. While this tighter guard can make it harder for Stipe to consistently land to the body, openings will still be there. DC’s defensive reactions have already significantly slowed due to age and not having the hands constantly extended gets rid of one layer of defense. Miocic used feints and jabs consistently in the second fight, but had little success. But, if DC begins to keep his hands tighter to his body, his long guard can no longer stifle Stipe’s straight shots and I would expect Stipe to rally the pace up then. When Stipe was able to bypass the arms in the 2nd fight, DC was forced to try to slip and tie-up/counter and Stipe was consistently able to stifle these by angling off when he threw his straight. Stipe should have a small but distinct advantage if DC reverts back to his tighter guard. If DC stays with his long guard, I cannot see this going well for him on the feet (barring a flash KO, this is HW), especially with how Miocic used a variety of ways to land the body hook in the 4th round.
Trying to consistently wrestle with Miocic may be a mistake for DC, purely for cardio reasons. When DC’s initial shots are stuffed (by either pushing head inside or pushing head down and trying to sit corner as Stipe did in 2nd fight) he will often revert to just forcing his hips in, lifting, and dumping. Lifting a 220lb man, dumping him, then being forced to scramble and work on top is obviously not the best for cardio purposes at 41. DC’s wrestling should be used as a transitional thing to cause discomfort and create openings to hit Stipe on the feet, but I do not think it should be the main part of the gameplan with cardio and Stipe’s own TDD (as Ed mentions later on) in the question.
The big problem is as Sriram said, it took Stipe 17 minutes and DC letting off the gas to make an adjustment that could have been made pre-fight. If DC is able to scare him off with a drilled-in counter, or maybe Stipe does not have the success he wants to have early, there is a massive question as to if Stipe has any more adjustments up his sleeve. I really do not think he will. That said, I think if he keeps a consistent commitment to body work, moving and jabbing, feints, and kicks on the back foot this should be his fight as I do not trust DC’s current cardio or durability as he ages. Miocic TKO3
Matt Gioia: What we know from the first two fights between these larger than life figures is that DC will push a pace immediately. In the first fight he was able to spark Stipe out, while in the second, Stipe was able to withstand the onslaught. Miocic’s path to victory is to withstand the early beating and drain DC’s now questionable cardio, yet that strategy might be the worst gambit to rely on in the heavyweight division. Yes, Miocic has done this before, purposely in the Ngannou fight and accidentally in the second DC fight, but as he is rapidly approaching his tenth year in the sport, a time where most athletes look to be shot, I’m not sure if he has the durability anymore. DC by 2nd round TKO.
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: Such a weird and awkward trilogy. I really never got into it. I’ve been following DC’s career pretty closely when he was a light heavyweight, but even though I was happy for him to win another belt, I never felt invested in those fights. The rematch was incredibly sloppy but entertaining. People remember the cool series of body shots from Stipe but he looked awful the first two rounds, as stiff as he’s ever looked. That sloppy war was DC fighting his fight with all his flaws (out of stance, inexistent defense) but also his strengths (output, speed and toughness). The only thing positive was the cool number of setups that Miocic had for the left hook to the body. I loved all the diverse set up he used. This felt like a big moment. But apart from this, Not much positive to say about Stipe’s performance. I still can’t believe he’s not able to keep DC at bay with 8 inches reach advantage. I have no doubt that DC will be more than ready for the last fight of his career and that the competitor in him pushed him through that camp to get fit and that he’s mentally ready to give all he has for one last time. On the other side, I’m doubtful of Stipe’s training camp. Stipe (rightfully so) delayed that fight, due to the situation in Ohio and the lack of training capacities. I’m pretty sure Stipe won’t use that left hook to the body by fear of getting countered right away but I expect him to kick and knee the gut of Cormier to slow him down. I have no idea who’s gonna win this one as there is big interrogation on how Stipe will look and how Cormier can possibly adjust but I trust more the competitive mindset of Cormier to push as hard as he can to finish his career with the heavyweight belt on his shoulder. Daniel Cormier via TKO3.
Ed Gallo: I’ve watched some interviews, the countdown videos, the embedded videos, really anything I could get my hands on to confirm that Stipe Miocic is aware of the dynamics of their last fight. He seems to be! There was a lot that went right the first time around - Miocic did a good job of breaking DC’s posture on shot attempts, crossfacing to break him off. The chest-wrap was a bad idea, that’s what allowed DC to get that lift for the first takedown of the fight. Beyond that, Miocic was on-point intercepting DC’s reaching clinch entries by framing, posting, and digging his own underhooks - allowing him to bodylock DC to his back at one point.
Even though it’s in the smaller cage, I’m really not that worried about DC looking for a grappling-heavy approach here, Stipe can handle that. With that being said, assuming Stipe makes even small improvements on the feet, it’s easy for me to favor him here. DC could make improvements as well, but let’s think about it realistically - there have been obvious points to improve upon in previous fights, like Jones kicking his body to bits, that he did next to nothing to mitigate in their next meeting. I feel this fight will look similar, but Stipe gets to his attritional tactics sooner and finishes the job within 3. Stipe Miocic r3 TKO
Danny Martin: What’s to say? Daniel Cormier is a ragged old man with a crumbling excuse for a style that was always hinged heavily on athleticism and arrogance. Stipe Miocic took 15 minutes to find body shots against him. There’s no high-level technical analysis to be had here. Every time Daniel Cormier gets obliterated, an angel gets its wings, but part of me feels like he’s just a little better at fighting ugly. The ultimate hatred hedge: Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: I have a lot of faith in Stipe as a fighter, compared to the rest of Heavyweight at least. His puzzling choice to wait over 3 rounds before focusing on the body aside, Stipe and his camp are generally solid at identifying and exploiting the weaknesses of his upcoming opponents. We’ve seen it time and again over the course of his reign, and it’s something Cormier just doesn’t usually do himself, for the most part. When he does, it’s specific improvements rather than broader ideas. My expectation is that Cormier will have drilled some defensive reactions to incoming body attacks, but considering Stipe isn’t a complete dolt, I’m sure he will be aware that will happen. I expect Stipe to have a varied attack to the body and head, overwhelming Cormier’s defense. Cormier’s athletic ability and toughness should make things hairy in exchanges, but assuming Stipe can avoid the KO shot, he wins this fight. Stipe Miocic by KO round 3.
Mateusz Fenrych: So here’s the thing; Cormier’s style may be ugly and disjointed and seemingly shallow on the feet, and increasingly vulnerable to the vagaries of age and possibly complacency, but, he’s never made it easy for anyone, even for the best he’s faced. The last time Jon Jones was forced to look good was against him, for one thing, and out of Stipe, in their second fight, we saw even more remarkable things; a heavyweight using his feet to keep distance, and even pivoting into a finishing sequence.
OK, I’m being glib, but my point stands. Cormier’s work may be ugly, but he makes good opponents work.
He is stupidly strong, although the length of time he can leverage that strength is seemingly waning, fights at pace and still has pretty good handspeed at the weight. Stipe is likely to eat leather at least to begin with, since he did so in both their fights until now before finally making the adjustment in the fifth combined round of their rivalry. The threat of the KO is still there, at least until Stipe wakes up and begins to manage distance like he did in that infamous 4th round.
And although Stipe took a criminally long time to make the adjustments needed to win, make them he did, and I enjoy seeing that regardless of level. And as Phil mentioned, he made an adjustment but it wasn’t just a spam hook, he varied it, feinted, changed the angle of attack, low-kicked into a hook… listen, it’s the sort of work a bantamweight champion might throw out on the daily but I very much enjoyed seeing the big man do it.
Not to mention, it was a measure of craft winning over brute physicality. Unless Stipe is as dumb as he was for three rounds in Cormier-Miocic II - which cannot be discounted because he WAS that dumb for three rounds - I can only see the measure of craft winning again.
It’ll be a sad-ish end to what was not an unimpressive career from Cormier after all is said and done, but I expect Miocic to win with a TKO2.
Ryan Wagner: I don’t think either Stipe or Cormier looked very good in their last fight. Stipe’s defense is either slipping significantly, or he can’t figure out how to remain defensively sound against someone focused on occupying his hands before punching. Stipe’s boxing was rudimentary enough that he struggled to consistently crack DC’s erratic and predictable head movement until the latter’s cardio failed him. Both men are getting older, slower, in worse shape, and are certainly well out of their primes.
DC’s athletic advantages likely see him find success in the early fight, but he can’t keep up an aggressive, high-paced fight over five rounds, especially if Stipe continues hitting the body. I expect DC to have prepared enough that Stipe can’t just hammer left hooks to the body from the get-go until Cormier crumples, but I don’t expect DC’s adjustment to be tremendously deep or to hold up to counter-adjustments. Part of DC sacrificing body defense for an extended guard is that protecting the body more means sacrificing protection upstairs, which means Stipe can use the threat of the body shots to create openings in exchanges.
Stipe seemed to figure out how to deal with DC’s clinch game fairly well as the fight went on. He’s still hittable on breaks, but he started controlling the far-arm of DC’s by posting inside the bicep, looking for double underhooks, or tying up the wrist, preventing DC from employing the trick that finished their first fight.
Without a ton of confidence, I think Stipe’s cardio will hold up better than DC’s, and the pick is Miocic via TKO
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon “Chito” Vera
Sriram: This feels like a fight where O’Malley looks like a -1000 if he wins, but the actual chance of him making that fight happen is lower than that. Chito is a brilliant fighter once he gets some warm-up time, as he showed in that terrific fight with Song Yadong (which I gave to Chito, although it wasn’t a crazy decision); good kicker on the outside, strong bodywork on the inside, active and damaging in the clinch. The problem has always been that first round for him, where he doesn’t just feel out his opponent but almost seems to need to feel out himself and work out what it is he’s supposed to be doing in there. Andre Ewell is a fun striker but the way Chito looked early, one would be forgiven for thinking he’s just not very good -- until round 2 ended, when he had broken the American entirely.
O’Malley seems to work on the opposite track; he’s a potent fast-starter, a very good range-striker in the distance-trappy mold that’s relatively common for big long fighters at their weight. Wineland isn’t a superb win at this stage, but he also beat 2020 Wineland as convincingly as anyone could. Vera’s a different question; O’Malley could just wreck him early, Vera isn’t defensively great and especially so early, but Chito can compete in the outside-kicking as the fight develops, and he’s the far more dangerous man inside -- especially if O’Malley starts to fade, which isn’t impossible looking at fights like O’Malley/Ware. I’ll go with Chito here to take over the fight late, I think he’s generally the better fighter who wins a fight that actually plays out, but I could easily look very wrong. Vera by TKO3.
Aiden: Really like this fight, it is a great fight to predict the trajectory of both. Vera primarily has relied on a high guard to shell up when his opponent comes in. While this helps him safely duck in to clinch or takedown entries when he outfights, he is inconsistent with finding those opportunities, especially early on in the fight and it often just limits his mobility when trying to exit. As a counter striker, Vera’s only consistent weapon is a back-stepping jab that does not land with a ton of pop. He tries to play a catch and pitch game, but is often late on the pitch and just gets hit for his trouble. Vera is a good outside kicker however, he varies his location, punches off his kicks, pairs kicks together (body kick and snap kicks), and is just dedicated to kicking. I think he takes a similar approach to O’Malley as he did vs Ewell, pressuring with kicks, trying to slip into takedowns or clinch entries, and swarming inside. I think O’Malley will be able to at least contest at kicking range with his own kicking game and lateral movement and that may force Vera to swarm in before attritional damage can come into play. In the Ewell fight, Vera would consistently throw his weight over his hips when swarming, which got him hit a few times on the way in. Against a “distance trapping” counter threat like O’Malley, I think he will be punished for this. If his durability holds through the counter punches though, his body work and clinch are vicious and he’s quite talented in those areas. Vera could force O’Malley to defend in layers, when he has never had to really do that before. Vera could likely out-grapple him, but I do not trust his entries from slipping or ducking behind his guard to consistently deal with a big and quick lateral mover like O’Malley. Overall, Vera may likely be the more complete fighter at this stage, but being a naturally slow starter with some questionable entries posits too many questions, I will go with a tentative O’Malley by TKO1
Matt: Putting your most marketable up and coming star, who’s exciting and explosive style makes for exciting early knockouts but leads to heavy fading in the later rounds, against a guy who is insanely tough and durable with great finishing instincts does not seem like the proper way to groom a prospect. O’Malley could just have earth shattering power and put the slow starter out early but I think Chito pulls it out late. Funny that the UFC is betting on two fast starters in their main and co-main. Vera by 3rd round TKO
Philippe: I like that fight, a lot. Chito Vera is one of my favorite bantamweights, he’s very skilled in the clinch and on the ground and his striking is crafty as well. He’s a slow starter and he’s fighting the young killer who starts very high and who’s confidence seems as high as it can ever be. O’Malley not looking past Vera also tells me that Sean is aware of the challenge in front of him and not being delusional. My only concern about Chito is that he reminds me of my favorite MMA fighter (Jorge Masvidal) in the sense that he’s an excellent all around fighter but too often makes fights he should win comfortably, extremely difficult for himself (because he starts so slow but also cause he’s comfortable everywhere and too willing to stay in position where he might loses for the judges). I think this fight is going to win Fight of the Night and both men’s stock is gonna rise up because of that fight. I believe Sean is going to hurt/rock the Ecuadorian early and get very close to finish him but Chito will survive and slowly take over the fight in the second and third round. But even in those rounds, Sean will show his improvement in the ground game and will threaten Vera with a few close submissions. I pick Marlon Vera by Split Decision.
Ed: Overall, I’m higher on Chito. When he’s at his swarming best he’s a dynamic combination puncher, attacking the body with killer intent. As an outfighter he has his merits, like linear kicking and some slick outside slip counter entries. Generally, on the outside he’s a bit too reactive and doesn’t have the defense to protect himself all that well. Even when he first commits to swarming, it can be pretty messy. O’Malley can look fairly polished on the backfoot and I expect him to crack Chito a few times early. However, in a longer, uglier fight against an opponent who will kick with him, I don’t know how much I trust O’Malley. Vera has never been finished, I expect his durability to carry him through some early rough patches and allow him to bully O’Malley later on. Chito Vera UD
Danny: O’Malley looks good. He’s a polished, sensible striker who likes clean wins and reactive opponents. I don’t necessarily think that will be Chito. Vera’s tendency to take a round to get warmed up is likely to be his biggest enemy here, but he’s inhumanly tough, dogged in the clinch, attritional, and varied. O’Malley seems to like banking early finishes/leads on opponents, and forcing them to catch up, but Vera isn’t likely to be cowed in the face of a big puncher. This will force some layers out of O’Malley, and if he can successfully answer the questions Chito is bound to ask him, his ceiling really is pretty high. Nonetheless Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision.
Ben: O’Malley is the favorite, and I get it. Vera is tough as nails, has a broad skillset, and once he’s in his flow, is quite an aesthetically pleasing fighter to watch as well. The problem is taking the time to get there, and O’Malley is not the type of fighter to take a round to get warmed up against. Losing rounds/struggling with the likes of Guido Cannetti, Andrew Ewell, and Nohelin Hernandez is not a sign that bodes well for him. I expect O’Malley to be able to catch Vera with big shots early. Vera is tough, but he’s too hittable for my liking to pick him over a powerful and aggressive puncher in O’Malley. Sean O’Malley by KO round 1.
Mateusz: I think I’m of the same mind as Sriram here; I have a strong feeling that Vera will manage to lose a first round, perhaps even with a concussive scare, and come back strong late.
And as the rest of m’learned colleagues have rightly pointed out, O’Malley is a very fast starter, while Vera is not.
However, Vera’s first round weaknesses may not be the deal (or chin) breaker they might otherwise be. Yes, Vera is defensively somewhat static, but O’Malley is not a swarming puncher, nor a pressurer. He keeps distance and enters behind feints and throwaways, but Vera should be able to keep up a steady tally of kicks from range- O’Malley won’t be smothering those with pressure.
Vera also has a weakness to being pressured into the fence and clinched into a standstill - he is rather less effective in the clinch when against the fence - but that, also, is unlikely to happen with O’Malley.
And while O’Malley might be the best fighter Vera has faced (not in my opinion mind, I have a healthy admiration for Song Yadong), Vera is very definitely the biggest step up for O’malley to date.
My point being, Vera has regularly faced adversity and looked good; against yadong, the fight was high-paced and hard, and Vera didn’t come close to wilting. O’Malley does, when the going gets long and heavy, and in the end, I have to give the more experienced and battle-tested Vera the nod, with a Vera UD.
Ryan: My colleagues have done a great job breaking down the matchup, so I’ll keep this short. O’Malley is a shockingly fast starter, who is confident landing big strikes and picking up reads very early on. Vera tends to start a bit sloppy, needing time to get into a rhythm and feel out his opponent. There’s two likely outcomes to this fight - either an early finish for O’Malley, or a win for Vera as he pressures O’Malley down the stretch, grinds him out in the clinch, and exhausts him with body work. Given O’Malley’s quick start and sharp counters, as well as Vera’s loose positioning and willingness to walk onto counters early in the fight, I’ll go with O’Malley via KO
Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Sriram: A very necessary Ngannou-loser’s-bracket. I haven’t hated a lot of the looks Rozenstruik’s shown, he can jab and check-hook and counter-kick, and three distinct things beats most heavyweight skillsets hands-down. He even hit the body of a shelled-up Overeem -- which is where the kickboxing background really comes to show, since even the champion needed two rough fights to figure out that hitting the body is allowed. JDS seems shot to pieces at this stage, the small cage is even worse for his notorious lack of awareness and poise moving backwards and on the fence, his last two showings were very bad (especially the Ngannou one, where he threw the worst punch I think I’ve ever seen from someone meant to know how to punch), and Rozen seems to know how to beat older heavies who won’t wrestle him. For my money (just kidding, not betting on heavyweights), Rozen comes out quick, pushes JDS back like he did Arlovski, and eventually finds the shot that puts a sliding dos Santos away. Rozenstruik by KO1.
Philippe: I have no idea how Rozenstruik has been cleared for this fight only a few weeks after getting deaded by Francis. I’m curious to see Junior Dos Santos new physic, he seemed extremely lean recently. I think the speed and superior boxing of the former champion will be too much for Rozenstruik. Junior Dos Santos by KO1.
Ed: I don’t have much of a read on Rozenstruik, but he’s definitely capable of counters on the backfoot and has pretty ridiculous power even with arm punches. His defensive responsibility when throwing is lacking, as we saw versus Ngannou, but I don’t think ol’ JDS is capable of running chin-first into a blitz like that today. I favor JDS to piece him up on the outside, working his body jab, but lately he’s cementing the idea that you can’t trust him not to leave himself extremely vulnerable to a counter at one point or another. It’s more of a “I don’t trust your chin or defense” hedge, but I’m picking Rozenstruik KO.
Danny: At what point do you stop picking a fighter to win favorable matchups? JDS has long since been a fighter whom you could succinctly identify the easy (Rothwell, Tuivasa, Ivanov) and difficult (Miocic, Velasquez, Overeem) matchups for, but after his last few showings, it’s safe to say JDS is past that point. Jairzinho Rozenstruik via first round KO.
Ben: I mean, I’m not sure how anyone can really pick JDS here. He’s still relatively athletic for a Heavyweight but his durability is gone, every single one of his last 5 losses have been by KO, and Rozenstruik is a powerful guy with the skills to put the hands on a defensively irresponsible JDS. It’s not about if JDS has the skills to hang here, it’s his inability to rely on his chin to give him a chance to. Jair Rozenstruik via KO round 1.
Mateusz: Phil has a point here- Rozenstruik was sleeping at the end of Ngannou’s fist so very, very recently. How, UFC, how? So that question has to be entered into the mix of possibilities.
But, JDS has been falling asleep in the cage for a lot longer now, and his durability is increasingly questionable, with two quick TKO losses in his last two bouts.
Yes, his last five fights see him at 3-2 which at HW basically means contendership status, but whenever he faces someone with a working knowledge of punch mechanics - Blaydes, Ngannou (hehehe), Miocic, Overeem, he gets all somnolent.
Guess what Rozenstruik can do? And pretty decently at that? I take Rozenstruik by TKO1
Aiden: I think JDS may have some genuinely good moments here, he can usually hold his own against someone who purely wants to strike with him. But, Jair has shown a few aspects of his game, his leg kick, check hook, a jab, an ability to fight slow, and great power that makes it hard to trust JDS to not get hit at this stage. The addition of the small cage makes it worse, JDS is notorious for lacking cage awareness and often running into the back of the cage when retreating. I will go Rozenstruik KO2
Ryan: I don’t know. They’ll do Heavyweight things until someone falls over, or just look at each other for 15 minutes. Rozenstruik via KO
John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Sriram: Merab is a solid test for a lot of 135ers, but Dodson seems like an unusually prohibitive matchup for him. Dodson isn’t nearly as easy to beat in the wrestling as he is in the clinch, and Merab’s top game isn’t the sort where he can just lock Dodson down and win rounds; Merab’s historic takedown numbers are cool in terms of how good a takedown artist he is, but is also a show of how many takedowns he needs to implement his wrestling to a win. Merab on the feet is a ball of energy, but he also got counterpunched quite handily by Casey Kenney; Nathaniel Wood showed that Dodson is still incredibly dangerous as a counterpuncher if someone isn’t careful with their entries, and Merab isn’t a Yan-style patient pressurer, he’s often just raw volume. There are fighters ranked higher than Dodson that I’d expect Merab to give a lot of trouble, but Dodson isn’t the man who seems particularly vulnerable to getting Covingtoned, and the margins that Merab would have to navigate are razor-thin with a puncher as thunderous as “The Magician”. Dodson via KO2.
Philippe: Merab is a good 135er, he’s relentless and his engine is very impressive. Can he push the pace against Dodson for 15 minutes? I don’t doubt he will get the takedowns and some mat returns but I don’t see him keeping Dodson on the ground long enough to either do damage or score points. Merab could be a bad matchup for other ranked bantamweights but probably not for Dodson. The speed and power of Dodson is still very impressive at this stage of his career and I think he’ll hurt Merab often and eventually finish him late in the fight. Dodson via TKO3.
Ed: As much as I enjoy a lot of Merab’s takedowns for MMA, the vast majority occur in open space against frankly overmatched opponents. He’s up against John Dodson, a human spring with a ridiculously low center of gravity and quick, powerful hips. Open space shots have been effective for moving Dodson back to the fence, if you can get to his legs, but he’s never been a guy you can bull over in the center. As a striker, Merab is developing competency, but he’s not at the point where he has much of a process linked to his wrestling - aside from the ways his overhands link into shots. Dodson is still capable and dangerous as a counter puncher, and I just don’t like this matchup for Merab. Dodson UD
Danny: This card is stacked to the brim with old men, so I guess I should pick youth to win at least once. Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision.
Ben: This is actually a pretty cool matchup. Merab is a workhorse who will be coming at Dodson non-stop, and Dodson is going to be landing plenty of counter strikes throughout. Merab is hittable, as was shown by the likes of Ray Borg, and he will be at a speed disadvantage too. So it comes down to if Merab can 1) eat clean counters from Dodson (he likely can, he’s durable af) and 2) if he can consistently get Dodson down, something historically difficult to do. Even when Dodson is taken down, he springs back up very quickly. Merab’s strength, takedown attempts, and pace are his biggest weapons here, so it’s entirely possible he can slow Dodson down by round 3, but I’m also pretty sure he can’t finish Dodson. I can see Dodson losing a weird decision, like he did against John Lineker. If this goes as I expect, we will see Dodson land big counter shots on a charging Merab, defending most takedowns, and possibly slowing by round 3, maybe losing it to him. But I am going with The Magician to pull another rabbit out of the hat. John Dodson by Unanimous Decision, 29-28 x3.
Aiden: Merab is a relentless takedown threat, but mostly in the open space. He relies on getting clean entries on the hips, whether from guys who chase after him or by using his own strikes (like overhands) to get in, as Ed mentioned. When Merab cannot get a clean look on the hips, he is a solid chain wrestler but his posture and folding at the hips to reach for the legs often takes away any drive he has. As Dodson is a literal ball of athleticism, without clean entries and the subsequent drive, Merab will not have a good night under Dodson’s sprawl. On the feet, Merab is quite reliant on just being more physically imposing and using “raw volume”, as Sriram said. Against a potent counterpuncher like Dodson, who is willing to be patient to land the right shot, Merab will likely have to eat some counters. Merab’s relentlessness will serve him well, if he can use the cage to his advantage, I could see him winning handily, but that is a big hypothetical. I will go Dodson UD.
Ryan: Echoing the thought that Dodson is a bad matchup for Merab. Merab’s loose ground control and reliance on shotgun-spray takedown attempts makes me hesitant against fighters with top-level athleticism and fight IQ who aren’t deficient in terms of takedown defense. Although he’s well past his prime, Dodson is still not only startlingly fast and athletic, but he’s always been a fantastic defensive wrestler. With Dodson’s scrambling ability and loose control, Merab will need to be hitting constant takedowns on a man who’s never lost that kind of fight. Dodson also has strong awareness of his cage positioning, meaning that he’ll likely have success circling off the cage and leading Merab onto counters, while Merab should struggle to cut the cage and force takedown situations. Dodson via UD