Roman Gonzalez vs Juan Francisco Estrada: The Fight Site Predictions
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images
This is it, folks. The big one. The last few years have been a bit dry on mult-fight boxing rivalries at the highest levels, but the one between Roman Gonzalez and Juan Francisco Estrada, at least, will go down in history. The first one was a cracking surprise that, even in a losing effort, catapulted Estrada from obscurity to the world stage. We had to wait for the second as they both went about the business of cementing their legacies, but when we got it, it was fire: a high-speed back-and-forth technical affair, ending in a close (and controversial to some) win for the Mexican. That left it 1-1, so now we get the rubber. And sure, there might be questions, about where Estrada might be after his unexpected difficulty with Argi Cortes in September, or over how long, at 35, Chocolatito can keep this up… but when it comes down to it, what we’re getting is two of the best fighters of this generation, settling their rivalry. It’s going to be great. So let’s take a look.
Dan: This third match is set to tie a decade-long rivalry to a close and I don’t think it’s possible to be confident in a pick here. Even with twenty-four rounds of data between two men whose in-fight wheelhouses were made to match each other, with how special and deep their toolsets go, the amount of guesswork feels up in their air. What I can say is that reads from their first bout really set the tone for how both men would showcase their abilities - and what decided that fight was a simple difference: Roman Gonzalez was (and still is) the better ring general. Estrada is Gonzalez’s rarest of equals in that he can engage in layered, endless series of exchanges and every bit his rival as far as grit, but Gonzalez has consistently showed, behind one of the finest pressure games of the last twenty years, as fine an understanding of where to keep himself in relation to his opponent.
In the rematch, Estrada found enough answers to find a razor-close win on the scorecards, but, unless he was pivoting behind his body work and counters, Estrada still struggled to keep Gonzalez off of him enough and conceded to trying to a firefight and a combination war that Gonzalez chose to hop in-and-out of. Estrada’s defensive poise and shot selection was tremendous in that bout, however, and, in particular, his counters to the body (lowkey something I’d argue he’s better than Gonzalez at) and check hook behind the cross arm guard played dividends at slowing Gonzalez’s momentum. Gonzalez found his answer behind the jab and level changes to keep Estrada’s timing dulled and undisciplined.
I have no doubt this will be another close fight, but, in my opinion, unless Estrada can craft more answers with his ringcraft and keep Gonzalez turning, I fear his tendency to default to trying to force his way to victory is not going to be enough. Against an Argi Cortes, he could afford to bullying an opponent like that, but against someone with defensive poise and ring guile who has proven multiple times to meet him at his strongest, I think it’ll be a close scorcher again, but, barring age and tear affecting the outcome, I lean Roman Gonzalez by unanimous decision.
Miguel: In a recent boxing climate that has seen two of the biggest and most interesting fights imaginable fail to materialize (Fury vs Usyk and Crawford vs Spence), it’s remarkable that promoters haven’t dropped the ball with delivering this phenomenal rubber match. González versus Estrada III is not just important for adding punctuation to an unforgettable era of the diminutive weight classes, but also because both of their previous bouts were among the most scintillating affairs we’ve witnessed in this generation of boxing. There’s no reason to expect anything other than another frenetic yet highly technical, complicated, and competitive twelve-round fight. Despite a controversial decision in their March 2021 rematch, the fact that the record stands at one win apiece is fitting for a matchup that mostly appears to be 50/50.
We’ve come to love González for his relentless and intelligent pressure fighting, combining some of the best extended combination punching with masterful in-fighting. In his prime, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that González would outmaneuver his opponents on route to snowballing his offense, often resulting in a knockout. Key to González’s plan was his deft footwork that allowed him to quickly reposition during his assaults, finding advantageous angles and turning his man. And while González was often right in his opponent’s face, he showed time and time again that his incredibly layered defense made it difficult to land cleanly and near impossible to scare him off.
Three years behind González in both age and duration as a professional, Estrada has proven to be the perfect mantequilla de maní (peanut butter) for Chocolatito. More content to take the backfoot or work at midrange, Estrada can contend with González in the deep waters of combinations with punches by the dozen. Estrada is equally tireless and even more durable with a varied and active defense that augments his counterpunching. An easy way to demonstrate Estrada’s unique ability to hang with González is to watch the last rounds of their first two fights. González is perhaps the best twelfth-round fighter alive, with the possible exception of Oleksandr Usyk, and Estrada was able to go toe-to-toe with him up to the final bell.
What this all means is that I agree with Dan in that it’s hard to imagine anyone feeling confident about picking either fighter. The style matchup will likely play out like it has before, with González demonstrating a finer understanding of ring generalship, giving him his preferred directionality and range where he is just a step ahead of Estrada technically. However, Estrada will counter in combination, circumnavigate some of González’s defense by mixing it up to the body, and hang with González down the stretch. So unfortunately, I think the real deciding factor for this fight will be which fighter has better kept their form in the latter stages of their career. As mentioned, Estrada is several years behind González with eight fewer fights on his record, but if we’re judging by their latest performances, Estrada may be declining a bit faster than González. Of course, it’s possible that Estrada took Argi Cortes too lightly and he will look more invigorated against his career rival, but it seems more likely that Estrada is aging out at a normal pace for a super flyweight while González is hanging onto his form longer due to less reliance on his physical attributes and a deeper technical well. Román González by unanimous decision is the pick.
Mateusz: I have to admit to a creeping fear for Choc here. Yes, being at a size disadvantage has rarely presented a problem for him, but on two (or indeed three, counting the loss to Estrada, in which Chocolatito fought insanely well and lost by the narrowest of margins) it has indupitably been a problem.
The two fighters to whom I am referring are of course his upcoming opponent and the little Thai terminator who beat the once invincible Gonzalez twice, Srisaket sor Runvisai.
Both presented a similar problem to Gonzalez, albeit in different ways, and while in two out of the three losses - fight one versus Srisaket, and fight two versus Estrada - Chocolatito found ways to deal with said problem and maybe, arguably have a case for to have received the nod in either fight.
However, fight 2 versus Srisaket presented the world with something barely anyone at the time thought likely; Gonzalez, on his back, staring at the ring lights.
What the two troublesome opponents managed was to leverage a power and size advantage, intended, and able to dull Chocolatito’s legendary pressure instincts.
Srisaket is the less technical opponent of the two, but nevertheless had the courage and calm to stay composed in the face of the Nicaraguan’s offense and pick his spot to apply his own counter pressure and power. He was wilder than Estrada was versus Choc, and he missed a lot, but he delivered enough force, chosen to be delivered at the opportune moments, to very obviously present issues in fight one, and in fight two he simply knocked a tired and weary-looking Chocolatito out. Now, Runvisai is notably heavyhanded for the division; he also cut and marked Choc up significantly in the first fight, but being able to apply said power is no easy feat.
Meanwhile, Estrada has some of the most impressive composure under fire of any fighter currently active. He stays eyes-open, watching, even as he shells up, ducks, dives and pivots while defending, and is genuinely able to plan his way out of a dangerous exchange with somebody capable of throwing 120 punches a round.
Against Choc, he seems less like a purely classical backfooter, who might flow from one position to the next, while potshotting, feinting, moving. He concedes ground, defence switched on, before choosing a time and place to set up temporary camp, dig his toes in and fire off sniping shots, before deciding whether he needs to move back more or not.
His long stance allows him to keep his head safe (relatively, Chocolatito is an absolute master of working out an opponent’s defence), pulling it back without needing to break stance and allowing him to easily counter with power.
Now, it’s relatively clear that Chocolatito holds the stamina and conditioning edge. A legendary twelve-round fighter, he ran Estrada ragged in the first fight, and despite being somewhat at a disadvantage physically in the second, he still managed to finish the fight on top with a fierce 12th round in the second. As good and clear-headed as Estrada’s fight IQ is, even he ended up just not being able to maintain his advantages through to the final bell, although the judges, not unfairly, had decided he’d done enough to win overall.
The true question of this fight is, as the boys have already posited, whether that still holds true; it’s highly likely Choc’s technique and ring IQ have contributed to his longevity, because it’s not like he’s been conserving himself in his boxing dotage. And this sounds like a permutation that will hold up well over time. And, even now, he throws up a tactical surprise, which makes me wonder how it would apply against Estrada.
In his last fight with Julio Cesar Martinez he was having the usual ridiculous firefight, until suddenly, around round nine, Martinez lost him and simply couldn’t find him. It looked like Chocolatito was giving a backfoot/range fighting masterclass just because he could.
Or, maybe he was just trying it out. Who knows. In any case, he was bloody good at it.
I would be fascinated to see him trying it out against Estrada; I suspect it would confound a foot-planted Estrada at least for a while. And since Estrada is such a solid problem solver, it’d be so, so fascinating to see what answers he comes up with.
Aaargh, I’m talking myself into a Roman Gonzalez UD, aren't I.
Lukasz: My learned colleagues have covered much of the technical aspect of the fight already, so I won’t re-tread too much of the ground. And, like Dan and Miguel, I do think there’s so much technical variety between the two of them that actually predicting a course of events is next to impossible. That said, if you put a gun to my head and made me, I’d lean towards Estrada. Maybe I’m just being contrarian, or maybe I’m just biased, but there are two things that point me in that direction, if pointed I have to be. First: Estrada is just a little bit bigger (and yes, a little younger), and secondly… he does more stuff. Nothing in his game is quite as deep as Chocolatito’s skill at pressing and throwing in combination in close, but he’s better at a wider range of options and an expert at making adjustments up to solve the problems his opponents present. That’s proved harder against Chocolatito twice already than any other opponent he’s faced, of course, but it just seems like the kind of skillset that gives a fighter more of an edge each time he faces an opponent again. So, since I have to, I’ll lean towards Estrada by decision.