GUEST POST: Analysis of Hockey Fights
Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sports
The following article is a guest submission from friend of the site Richard Mann (@RichardAMann), an author of editorial and analytical work. Richard is best known for his statistical coverage of MMA for ESPN, and his coverage of amateur wrestling for InterMat.
Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Fight Site staff.
To a person who is not familiar with hockey, it might come as a shock if the game suddenly stopped and two players started fighting. It might be even more confusing when the referees ostensibly allow the fight to continue until one player falls to ice or both skaters succumb to exhaustion. While it may seem like a wild brawl there are actually several written and unwritten rules that regulate hockey fighting in the NHL. For example, combatants must drop their sticks and gloves, mostly keep their helmets on and stop when the referees get involved.
Despite the regulation, the bouts still seem much more like a brawl than your average MMA fight. However, how different are the two types of combat? What makes the two so different? The following takes a statistical analysis approach to comparing and contrasting hockey fights with MMA bouts.
HockeyFights.com tracks and archives video for all fights in the NHL. Per the site, there were 195 total fights during the abbreviate 2019-2020 season. The player with the most fights prior to the pandemic-related shutdown was Nicolas Deslauriers. The Anaheim Ducks player had 14 fights, which is twice as many as the second leading fighter, Austin Watson.
All 14 of Deslauriers’ fights from this season were analyzed and compared to the fighters currently ranked by the UFC. The average number of fights tracked by UFCStats.com for a ranked fighter is 11.89.
Fight Time
The first thing that really stands out about hockey fights compared to MMA fights is the length.
In 2020, the average UFC bout has lasted for 11:08. However, Deslauriers’ average fight time is only 28 seconds. His longest fight came in his first brawl against Kurtis MacDermid of the Los Angeles Kings, and it was only 47 seconds long. This makes sense since fights in hockey are a break from the actual competition. Outside of fighting Deslaurier played in 59 games during the 2019-2020 season and averaged 9:47 on the ice.
Striking Position
In MMA all fights start at distance, which is defined as standing and not in the clinch. The same
holds true for the most part in hockey fights. Since players are required to drop their sticks and gloves, most of the fights start at range. However, the majority of fights quickly enter the clinch and remain there for the majority of the battle. 99% of Deslauriers’ landed strikes came in the clinch and 98% of the strikes he absorbed came in the same position. This varies greatly from the UFC. Only 14% of significant strikes collectively landed by ranked UFC fighters come in the clinch. Lina Lansberg currently lands the largest proportion of her significant strikes in the clinch, but that portion is only 48%. 44% of Aspen Ladd’s absorbed significant strikes come in the clinch, which is the largest among ranked fighters.
Since hockey players wear jerseys and skates, it is essential to establish a good clinch grip before striking. A large part of the fight turns into a battle for position, which can resemble the lapel and collar grabbing battles of Judo and Sambo.
As you can see in the first fight between Deslauriers and Kurtis MacDermid, the fight for jersey grip is key. Both Deslauriers and MacDermid are seasoned fighters. Once they close the distance it quickly becomes a battle to see who can get a solid hold of the jersey. The goal is to hold the position while throwing blows with the free hand. However, both fighters are also able to raise their lead elbow to help deter shots from opponents. Since footing is unstable due to being on skates, neither fighter is necessarily able to land the most meaningful blows.
On the other hand, Deslauriers is able to establish a much better position against Radko Gudas. Due to his superior handful of jersey, he is able to unleash a plethora of blows and dominate the fight.
Striking Output
Despite the positional battles, Deslauriers is still able to unleash a high number of strikes. He attempted 27.11 strikes per minute, which is well above the average number of significant strikes attempted by ranked UFC fighter, 9.04. To put Deslauriers’ striking output into further perspective the ranked UFC fighter with the highest striking output is Xiaonan Yan. She attempts 15.95 significant strikes per minute, which is still significantly below Deslauriers’ rate.
Striking Differential
As expected for a fighter with that kind of volume, Deslauriers also lands at a high rate. In his 2019-2020 fights, he landed 16.14 strikes per minute. His striking rate is nearly four times the average for a ranked UFC fighter. Paulo Costa lands the most significant strikes per minute among ranked fighters, and his 8.34 rate is nearly half as many as Deslaurier.
Deslauriers only absorbs 9.13 strikes per minute. While that is more than any other ranked UFC fighter, it is only slightly above the absorption rate of number-one lightweight contender Justin Gaethje who absorbs 8.37. This might not be entirely due to defensive skill on Deslauriers’ part. At times he seems much more committed to fighting than his opponents. Four of his 13 opponents had only one fight during the 2019-2020 season, and those opponents landed only 10 total strikes against him.
These offensive and defensive numbers leave Deslauriers with a striking differential of +7.01, which is higher than any ranked UFC fighter. Currently the ranked fighter with the highest differential is Sean O’Malley who holds a +3.48 differential.
Bare Knuckles vs. Helmets
In order to avoid a stiffer penalty for fighting, hockey players remove their gloves and keep on their helmets. In one of Deslauriers fights he actually convinced his opponent to keep his helmet on during the preliminary stages of the fight. To the untrained eye, fighting without gloves seems to allow fighters to land hard shots without cushion. However, gloves mostly serve to protect an attacker’s hands from injury. During a controlled test with National Geographic, MMA veteran Bas Rutten actually landed with more force while wearing MMA gloves than bare fisted.
Not only do hockey fighters fight without the hand protection of gloves, but they also punch opponents who have helmets for protection. The hard surface of a helmet greatly increases the chance of hand injury and therefore likely reduces punching power. On top of that, hockey helmets have been proven to provide significant protection against projectiles such as hockey pucks. An IRCOBI study found an average of only a 6.70 percent chance of cumulative strain damage when dealing with a regulation puck flying at 33 meters per second. Helmets will likely also provide protection from strikes.
These factors, plus the lack of ground fighting, results in most hockey fights being stopped by the referees due to a lull in the action or a mutual decision by the fighters. Per FightMatrix, 1023 of the 2590 MMA bouts (across all promotions) in 2020 so far have been knockouts or technical knockouts. Even though hockey fights are fought at a much higher pace, there are vastly fewer stoppages.
Height and Weight
Unlike MMA, hockey does not have weight classes. Fighters who choose to fight are essentially agreeing to an openweight contest. Deslauriers himself is listed as weighing 219 pounds. Without weight cutting that would place him in the heavyweight division. Eight of his 13 opponents are listed as weighing more than 205 pounds. The biggest weight difference came when he faced off against Jamie Oleksiak who had a 36 pound weight advantage. The smallest opponent for Deslauriers was Zac Rinaldo, who is listed at 192 pounds or 27 pounds smaller. Weight actually seems to have a big impact on the outcome of a fight. In fights where Deslauriers had the weight advantage, he had a +12.3 striking differential, while that differential falls all the way to +1.55 when he was the smaller fighter.
While in MMA most fighters are ostensibly the same weight, at least 24 hours prior to a fight, there can be a difference in height. Fighters with a height advantage in the UFC in 2020 have a moderate +0.45 standing (distance and clinch combined) striking differential. The difference was much more impactful for Deslauriers. In his hockey fights, he had a +11.48 striking differential when he had the height advantage.
While the use of weight classes seeks to create even matchups, the openness of hockey’s fighting can create some mismatches. In the case of Deslauriers, being the bigger fighter appears to provide a sizable advantage. This could be unique to Deslauriers, but it also makes intuitive sense that less trained and experienced fighters could rely more on physical gifts.
Transition to MMA
The most successful former hockey fighter to fight in MMA is probably Donald Brashear. The 16-year NHL veteran finished his career ranked 15 all time in terms of penalty minutes. In 2011 he made his MMA debut in a fight that somewhat resembled a hockey fight with strikes on the ground. He swarmed Mathieu Bergeron from the opening bell and the entire fight lasted only 21 seconds. Following the victory, Brashear never returned to the MMA cage.
Perhaps the most successful convert to MMA from professional hockey is Steve Bosse. He never made it to the NHL, but he played professional hockey for seven years between 2003 and 2009. He made his MMA debut in 2007 and fought mostly for the TKO promotion in Canada. He signed with the UFC in 2015 and went 2-1 in the promotion including a 52-second knockout over James Te-Huna. Per FightMatrix he peaked as the #33 light heavyweight in 2012.
The large number of minor leagues will likely keep professional hockey players employed and prevent the level of conversion we have seen from former football players. However, the sport requires a high level of athleticism and some players gain at least rudimentary fighting experience on the job.
The NHL is still trying to work out their return to play scenario, but if the league does return, do expect to see Deslauriers fighting. The Ducks have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Even without the league leader in fights, there will certainly be at least a few scuffles on the road towards the Stanley Cup.