Calvin Kattar vs. Dan Ige Pre-Fight Breakdown
MOSCOW, RUSSIA - NOVEMBER 06: Calvin Kattar holds an open training session for fans and media during UFC Fight Night open workouts at Arbat Hall on November 6, 2019 in Moscow, Russia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
In the midst of the craziness of a global pandemic as well as the hyper-violent UFC 251, the UFC’s mid-week “Fight Island” card may have slipped under your radar. The main event sees fan-favorite Calvin Kattar returning to take on the streaking contender Dan Ige, in a fight that should vault the winner to the top 5 of the FW division. Kattar is fresh off a brutal KO of Jeremy Stephens, while Ige is returning from a controversial split decision win over Edson Barboza. Both will look to cement their status as one of the divisions best, let’s take a close look!
Potent Offense
Calvin Kattar’s entire offense centers around one tool: his jab. Kattar uses his jab in a variety of ways to help set-up his more devastating strikes. Against Ricardo Lamas, Kattar jabbed in order to decipher how Lamas would react to it. Once he was able to get the read that Lamas was slipping outside of the jab, he would go on to feint it and run Lamas right into a devastating 3-2 in a contender for 2019’s KOTY.
Taking note of reactions and exploiting them is a big part of any good boxer’s offense. Lamas repeatably slips outside and Kattar makes him pay.
Against Shane Burgos, someone known for a constant supply of pressure no matter the physical consequences, Kattar used his jab as a barrier to punish Burgos’ attempts to enter the pocket. Once Kattar was able to get his jab consistently landing, he was able to begin to build off of it with his 1-2, feint it and go to his 3-2, and use it to draw out Burgos’ counters and re-counter them.
Kattar feints his jab to draw Burgos’ handfight, before shooting an uppercut between them and following with a 1-2 that nearly misses. As Burgos keeps pushing forward, Kattar uses his 1-2 to stop Burgos in his tracks. Eventually, this makes Burgos want to jab with Kattar to enter in. As soon as he does so, Kattar gets right to his cross-counters.
Kattar likes to keep his opponents right on the outside of his jab, enticing them to step in. If they continue to press on, Kattar will shoot his jab out and draw them onto his rear hand as they react to being hit with his jab. If they stay right outside that range, Kattar will go to some his long range weapons like his front snap kick, long body straight, and leg kicks. This range also allows him to decipher reactions from his jab, as his opponents are focused on defending and trying to counter him as he steps-in. Ricardo Lamas attempted to play right outside of Kattar’s jab but lacked any countering game and quickly paid the price when Kattar got the correct reads.
Taking the Tools Away
After seeing the damage that allowing Kattar to get his jab going can cause, it becomes quite imperative that his opponents must deny his jab from getting going. Shane Burgos’ strategy for doing this was by attempting to plant and counter with punches. At first, Burgos was able to successfully slip outside of the jab to load his rear hand, but failed to land counters due to Kattar’s tucked chin and high shoulder.
Burgos had the timing down and had his cross-counter on a hair trigger, but struggled landing it as a single shot due to Kattar’s fantastic mechanics when throwing his jab.
Burgos eventually figured he had to chain his cross-counter with an array of bodywork and long combos and had plenty of success doing so, but it was not foolproof. Kattar would still be able to exploit Burgos’ slip/pull, as he would NEVER concede range and was content to always push forward. This leads to Kattar being able to use a “throwaway” jab and land his straight as Burgos is planting and pulling, wobbling him before finishing him with two horrific uppercuts.
Burgos attempts to pull away from Kattar’s jab, but Kattar pre-loads his straight to land as Burgos is returning from his pull. It lands clean, and the rest is history.
Renato Moicano and Zabit Magomedsharipov took a completely different approach in denying Kattar his jab. While Burgos just wanted to go forward, force the pocket range, and plant to counter, Moicano and Zabit would fight at the absolute edge of range and force Kattar to pressure. This meant that Kattar would have to cover a large amount of distance to get into his preferred range to jab, leaving his lead leg open for counter leg kicks in the process. Moicano and Zabit would take a small hop back as soon as any jab came there way, catch it and fire off a counter leg kick or a cross counter, just to keep him guessing. When Kattar could back them to the fence, they used smart lateral movement to keep him from planting and getting inside.
Moicano would already be at the edge of range, with his counter leg kick on a hair trigger. Zabit stood a little closer, but swiftly hopped back when Kattar entered in and threw his counter leg kicks. As Zabit began to get a feel for the fight and timing of Kattar, any little step-in was met with counter kicks.
This made Kattar extremely tentative to lead with strikes and let Moicano and Zabit get past his jab when they wanted to pressure, as Kattar was scared of the consequences that stepping in could cause. From there, they could lead by kicking at a distance, jabbing-in, and by rallying the pace up. While Kattar is very aware defensively and will not let you get free shots in, he also is not the best at evading or parrying down punches when he is on his back foot. Zabit’s wide variety of shots and high volume forced him to think and slowed his defensive and counter-punching game.
With that in mind, the gameplan for Ige and all of Kattar’s opponents is there: Do not pressure at every moment, fight at the longest range possible, catch/parry/swipe his jab to punish his legs on the way in, mix in boxing counters, force him to become tentative, and then rally the pace up, begin leading and blitzing in while staying safe from Kattar’s laser quick pull/cross counters. However, just like (almost) everything in combat sports, it is way harder than it sounds. What Zabit and Moicano did takes a lot of discipline to pull off over 3 rounds and Ige has to worry about all 5.
Can Ige Pull This Off?
A good place to look would be Ige’s fight with one of MMA’s better southpaw jabbers, Julio Arce. Ige began as he usually does, pressuring his opponents back, which will not be good vs Kattar (seen in Burgos). While Ige did do ½ of the equation by hopping out when Arce jabbed, he failed to consistently cause any disruption with leg kicks or counter right hands when Arce entered in. This allowed Arce to double up on his jab and use his rear kicks/punches to hit Ige as he moved away.
Arce puts Ige at the end of range before running him right into his kick.
Ige also had the tendency to keep walking forward without a plan, letting Arce nail him with jabs and keep him at bay. This was not the only drawback of constant pressure, as Arce was also able to catch him between steps with a lead hook that wobbled him. Ige had no countering answers to Arce’s jab and subsequent building off of the jab, leaving a large area for concern vs Kattar.
Ige attempts to shift in, but Arce throws his jab out and stops him right in his tracks. Arce circles to his left, before hopping right into a lead hook that breaks his pattern of jabbing in. Ige is caught off guard.
At times against Kevin Aguilar, Ige would plant his feet and use a static double forearm guard to defend against Aguilar’s offense. If Aguilar stepped-in too deep, he would “catch-and-pitch” and land a nice cross. If Aguilar stayed at the end of his jab though, Ige got stuck behind his guard with no means to get inside. Against a long jabber like Kattar, this “catch-and-pitch” style will be very hard to pull off.
Using the guard effectively to catch and pitch is seen very little in MMA, so credit to Ige for using it. It may not be refined enough to deal with and get inside upon someone like Kattar though.
Against Mirsad Bektic, Ige did begin to expand upon some tools for dealing with the jab. As Bektic would step-in, he would keep his high guard up, but began to slip to the inside, throwing his rear hand simultaneously. From there, he would continue to counter in combination by going to the lead hook or bodywork. He would also slip inside to load his lead hip and fire off his check hook.
You love to see it.
At this point in Ige’s career, we have yet to see him be able to counter the jab with a consistent leg kicking game, and only now are we seeing small strides towards a type of cross-countering game that would work vs Kattar. Only having one of those vs Kattar, someone who is very hard to counter due to fluid mechanics, a high shoulder, and a tucked chin, as well as functioning mainly as a pressure fighter when Kattar loves to be a slick outfighter, makes this a very tough challenge for Ige. So with the main-line to diffusing Kattar not yet seen in Ige’s game (not saying he can not improve between fights, we just have not seen it yet), what other avenues does he have to win this fight?
Other Pathways
The first and most obvious would be to lead with leg kicks, not just counter with them. Kattar’s fights against Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens seem to give credence to this strategy, as both had success leading with leg kicks. Eventually though, both failed to set up the kicks with strikes or feints, leading Kattar to get the timing down on them and check them consistently. In Ige’s fights with Kevin Aguilar, Ige showed glimpses of properly setting-up kicks.
Ige feints in to occupy Aguilar’s guard, kicks low.
These will undeniably land on Kattar a fair bit, but can Ige enter safely into the pocket consistently without being jabbed? That is the question that remains to be seen. Zabit could at points, but mostly because he had the length advantage. Ige does not have that luxury. If Ige gets overly focused on landing them, it could lead to it looking a bit like the Burgos fight, where Ige is constantly pushing forward looking to leg kick but constantly getting hit with Kattar’s jab and eventually letting Kattar build off of it to land more devastating shots. Ige could draw inspiration from Alexander Volkanovski when leading with kicks. Volkanovski established the threat of his leg kick and his right hand, and feints them together to constantly keep his opponents guessing as to what is coming next. Leading with leg kicks will work at points, but it cannot be the only part of Ige’s game vs Kattar.
Wrestling could also be an outlet for Ige. Ige enters into his grappling game with two tactics: punching/kicking into range before shooting a takedown or by slipping strikes to push into the clinch. From there, he employs the classic AKA strategy alongside the cage clinch of hitting with the free hand, looking for a bodylock, and going to the double leg if it is there. If he can get a clean look on the hips in open space, he looks to circle and finish.
Calvin Kattar’s main route to defending takedowns is by wall-walking. Putting him on his back in open space instantly results in him scooting back to the cage, where he builds up his base to stand-up. Kattar then looks to employ a whizzer along with a collar tie or wrist control on the freehand that he uses to push and angle off to free himself from the clinch.
This will work masterfully vs Ige early, as he has struggled to control the clinch against strong opponents who controls his underhook with a tight whizzer and leverages their free hand to escape (Bektic fight). However, if Ige can consistently get to grappling exchanges with Kattar, whether it be by slipping in, leg kicking before shooting in, or by trying to punch in, there is a question about Kattar’s depth past his common clinch escapes, as we have never really seen him controlled or worn on for an extended period of time. That is a massive “if” though and Ige will have to fight extremely disciplined and take every opportunity to get to the grappling exchanges, which he may not want to do, as he can struggle with pacing himself.
Paths to Victory!
Kattar’s Path to Victory: Let Ige pressure. When Ige pressures, Kattar can get right to his outfighting game that has been mentioned thoroughly throughout this breakdown and box in a tight circle. Once the jab starts landing and puts Ige at the edge of the range, start to get the reads of Ige’s defense and exploit them. Be wary of Ige leading with kicks and look to check them. If Ige starts to get reckless entering, he needs to keep jabbing and use his pull/cross counters. Basically, he needs to fight like he fought Burgos and Lamas. Ige’s usual striking game puts Kattar right in his comfort zone.
Ige’s Path to Victory: If he cannot get that Moicano/Zabit counter leg kicking game working, his next best bet is to combine the two things mentioned earlier (leading with kicks, building them into takedowns) at a very high pace. He will likely still get hit by Kattar at points, but if he keeps a high pace, he will be able to find moments to get to the grappling by slipping in, kicking the leg right into a takedown, or by shooting as Kattar steps-in. Once he gets in, he has to keep Kattar there. Finding body-locks, denying collar-ties and wrist control, and getting the hips in to get the fight to the mat will be absolutely essential.
Final Prediction
Calvin Kattar TKO R3: Overall, I have more confidence in Kattar being able to enforce his will than I am in Ige’s. Ige plays right into a lot of Kattar’s strengths, and without a fantastic kicking game, length, or a really good pocket boxing game, it’s hard to pick most vs Kattar. If Ige can get his grappling game going early (big “if”) or just grits it out, takes a large amount of damage but just keeps pushing in, he could very well win this fight, but this is definitely a tough test for him. Hope for an excellent fight between two top tier fighters!