Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia: The Fight Site staff picks.
Photo by Sye Williams/Getty Images
This weekend sees a clash between two young stars in boxing. Gervonta Davis has been around for a while, a champion at various weights for six years now. Ryan Garcia is a lot less experienced, but quite a lot bigger. There’s questions about the level of opposition of both fighters, though, and both have a lot to prove. And, of course, there’s the bragging rights. Join us as we give our thoughts.
Javi: Frankly I’m shocked this fight was actually made. It’s still relatively early in each man’s career and they will both be a massive step up for one another in my opinion (for Davis, Garcia may not be nearly the most acclaimed fighter he’s faced, but the Californian will certainly be the most athletically gifted by a significant margin). Regardless, this is certainly not a scenario to complain about for anyone who follows boxing in any capacity; after all, when do we ever see two young super-talents meeting at the height of their abilities? I don’t believe it will be a walk in the park for either man given the obvious physical attributes of each as well as their respective styles.
However, I do believe there is a very simple and somewhat obvious reason for Davis being favored at a whopping -270 as of this writing: Ryan Garcia is the only one of the pair to have been knocked down so far, and it was by an arcing left hand from a shorter man in Luke Campbell which left him absolutely floored. Now, if an old and shop-worn Luke Campbell can do that to him, imagine what the (alleged) hardest hitter south of welterweight could do with his trademark left hand.
Do I think it will be as simple as Garcia walking into a nuclear overhand from Davis? Not necessarily. But that does not mean that Garcia’s vulnerability to left hands, which was also highlighted in spots throughout his last bout against southpaw Javier Fortuna, won’t come into play on the 22nd of April. Garcia employed inside foot positioning and the rear hand lead very well against Fortuna, knocking him down twice before ending matters in the sixth round with a lightning-fast lead hook. Despite Garcia’s nearly flawless showing against the former champion, he showed defensive gaps and a vulnerability to wide rear hands stemming from his reliance on inside foot positioning in the open stance, and against a puncher the calibre of Davis one gap is all that’s needed (a certain IRA quote regarding Margaret Thatcher comes to mind). Therefore, I’m siding with the oddsmakers and picking Davis by stoppage following a display of beautiful boxing by Garcia.
Haxx: It says something funny about boxing that this happens so rarely I seldom talk about it. Two excellent young fighters with a brace of weapons, athleticism and X factor (plenty of confidence in all three) throwing down for our entertainment. When two youngins run at each other head-on so early in their careers( assuming both deliver on some of that "potential"), the subtleties often separate them.
Garcia's both bigger and more vulnerable, and his issues with late (sometimes lazy) left hands to worry me. I believe it was Tay (https://twitter.com/TaylorOnSport, how u doin buddeh) who first highlighted that Garcia constantly undermines his love for the inside game by sluggish weight transfer and a lack of fight for inside foot positioning, resulting in a stance that often leaves him square with his chin there for the blasting. That vulnerability becomes even more of a concern against southpaws, especially ones who can hit hard and opportunistically.
While his right hand, strategic approach and punching power all fit together cohesively, his tactics leave a little to be desired. In addition to his foot positioning, his combination punching can be awkward and sometimes even looks like he crowds himself. His lack of proactive defensive measures relies too much on the threat of his activity - which is always a concern for a pressure fighter who lacks a dominant jab or feinting lead game. What a force multiplier it would be for his attributes - and buy him more time to pick his combinations more precisely.
And yet Davis's game feels dangerously incomplete. He can work as a backfoot counterpuncher and has the speed, explosiveness and punching form to blast you on the way in. Davis’s jab remains primitive for a top boxer - he throws it out without building it. While his jab would be a great tool to tie together the two halves of his game, its limitations combine with simplistic backfoot ringcraft to create a Davis that is far too prone to sit at medium range exchanging instead of purposefully pressuring someone - forcing them to throw back.
He doesn't create position through movement, doesn't have a consistent ability to force it because of the disconnect between his offence and defence (here I go again, pointing out someone needs a punch and clutch game), and relies too much on first-punch power drained by fighting in heavier weights. That first layer of speed and the power-based threat is phenomenal - beyond it, I am unsure. I still believe Davis is less than the sum of his parts, the question is if Garcia can pull that thread.
Davis should be punishing that vulnerability to lefts a few times. Win or lose, Davis has all the tools to make for dangerous moments in the fight. Likewise, paths to victory for Garcia should intersect with danger if he wants to win any appreciable number of rounds from the inside. Which leaves the question: how consistently can Davis create those moments instead of relying on Garcia to offer them? Garcia should do what he does: this fight will hinge on the cost of him imposing it.
Lukasz:
I’m in agreement with much of what Haxx has said about the disconnect between Tank’s offence and defence. Ultimately, when on the back foot, he’s pretty smooth. He has good head movement, his footwork is well-considered and aware of the space, and he connects that well together to keep his balance while he draws opponents on to counters.
But when he goes on the attack himself, all that goes out the window. His chin comes up, he starts leaping in, and he doesn’t really set up his attacks. He suddenly goes from responsible and pretty slick to just throwing raw power shots and seeing what sticks.
What’s doubly frustrating is that it’s not as if he lacks ring awareness- he has typically eventually found ways to get closer to his opponents, not need to overextend so much, and get them out of there. But taking 11 rounds to knock out a way undersized and way past his best Yuiriorkis Gamboa is the sign of a fighter who struggles to use his toolset to impose his reads, especially when you see how the fights with Barrios and Santa Cruz went.
Now, it’s not all bad news for him. There are plenty of reasons to pick Davis still. Even when he’s not setting it up, he’s excellent at disguising the direction of his shots- making a headshot look like it’s going to the body and vice-versa. That could really throw Garcia, whose defence is pretty basic, and based almost entirely on just stepping back enough to not get hit. And because a lot of those shots are whipped hooks coming from out wide, it’s a double danger to Garcia, whose stance is quite narrow and may be more vulnerable to shots coming across rather than down his center line. And if Davis can bait Garcia into being the one attacking, he’s got the fight half-won, because Garcia can’t help but let his chin hang out when he goes gung-ho.
The problem though, is simple. Garcia is bigger. Really quite a lot bigger. He’s got no reason to want to overcommit coming forward, and it’s not his instinctive first choice anyway. Garcia, like Tank, is a counter-fighter at heart and knows it. It’s not impossible that he might lose his head and cost himself, but he shouldn’t.
The closest we’ve seen in Tank’s career so far to this challenge is when he fought Barrios, up at 140. And that simply did cause him a struggle. Early on, he really found it difficult to close range, getting somewhat picked off as he came in. He did get there eventually, finding ways to step in more safely as the fight went on, and finishing the fight in the 11th.
The thing is, though, that Garcia hits a lot, lot harder than Barrios, and is faster. And although his offensive toolset is quite limited, he’s getting increasingly good at forcing opponents into the lanes he needs to land it. It’s all about two punches really- the straight right, an intercepting shot that comes down the pipe as opponents approach or disengage, and a wonderful lead left hook that frequently crashes out of nowhere to catch them cold.
To date, pretty much all of Tank’s wins have swung on him being the faster, more powerful guy, using his explosiveness to get home past any flaws. Against Garcia, he might not be the more explosive of the pair- and even if he is, it’s close enough that the size difference could still be a huge problem.
I will add a caveat before my final prediction that a lot of this depends on Garcia making the 136lb catchweight safely, but I think we have to take him at his word that he can. If he does, I’m going to take a leap and go with Garcia by mid-round KO, with Davis jumping face first into one of those left hooks.