UFC 287: The Fight Site Staff Picks
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
UFC 278 is headlined by a rematch between current middleweight champion Alex Pereira and his longtime rival and former king Israel Adesanya at Miami, Florida. This is the second encounter between them in MMA but the fourth overall, including their kickboxing careers. Despite Pereira leading the rivalry undefeated at 3-0, all fights have been competitive, and that, combined with Izzy being a dominant ruler of the division prior to their last encounter, has set the stage for yet another encounter between the decorated kickboxers turned MMA fighters.
This title fight is accompanied mostly by two exciting fights: veteran turned superstar and Miami’s own, Jorge Masvidal, will face off against BJJ ace, fellow former title contender, and fan favorite Gilbert Burns in a fight with possible title implications. And rising contender Adrian Yanez faces a big step up in competition against divisional staple Rob Font in a fight between two of the best boxers in the sport.
Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya 2 (4?)
Sriram: The motivation for a rematch for a dominant-ish champion such as Adesanya is entirely understandable, especially off a fight where he was likely headed towards a 48-47 close but clear decision (as is his wont over the last 2 years or so), but I do think the first MMA meeting between Pereira and Adesanya presented a much more replicable path to victory for Pereira than people believed immediately afterwards. In a lot of ways, Pereira seems to Adesanya what Adesanya was to Robert Whittaker - a fighter who’s broadly worse at the overall sport of MMA, but represents both an atypical physical matchup and a very tricky style matchup. In theory, a fighter who lives and dies off a single well-known and short-range tool (Pereira’s left hook) should struggle against Adesanya’s brand of feint-heavy rangy sniping - however, Adesanya relies just as heavily on advantages that simply don’t exist against Alex Pereira to make that game happen. Even with the inherent relative edge in mobility for the outfighter that a larger and more circular cage presents, Pereira did a great job at UFC 281 of slowly eating up space over his feet - and it was much more actionable for him than for others, as his size meant that he wasn’t trying the desperate distance-covering that exposed Adesanya’s less rangy opponents to his slicker footwork tricks and counters. Pereira’s ability to just fire offense from his stance at Adesanya meant that his jab and left hook worked together in ways that even comparable boxers such as Whittaker couldn’t make happen - and this isn’t new as seen against Jan Blachowicz, where Adesanya’s strong defense often presupposes the presence of a big length edge that make positional looseness and committed leans difficult to punish. The other similarity with the Blachowicz fight is the kick defense - Pereira was active and consistent about dealing with the kicks, in a way that kept Adesanya from his usual and comfortable long-range scoring mechanism.
Adesanya obviously has a great chance of winning, given his successes over minutes in all of their fights. However, that boxing success largely came from actively engaging Pereira on Adesanya’s own terms; in their kickboxing rematch it was a lot of drawing and punishing the left hook, where in their MMA fight, Adesanya made frequent use of a long and pawing jab to blind Pereira to the straight. The way Adesanya’s developed as an MMA fighter, I think it’s more likely he takes the successes of their meeting in New York as a reason to double down on sneaky avoidance - and Pereira’s size and swarming tools to cut off movement make that much more dangerous. I’m not sure Adesanya has a consistent way to rack up a big lead on Pereira without unforced wrestling errors (since Pereira also beat him in the clinch, for the most part), nor to really compromise him with attrition - and with that, I think Pereira is hunting him down for the whole fight, as the more dynamic fighter who can more effectively build on his successes. Adesanya’s very good, but he historically grows more conservative with danger - and I don’t think a matchup where he’s 0-3 with 2 KO losses is the spot where he’s pushed to change that. Pereira via TKO3.
Miguel: This was a bizarrely tough fight to pick in advance of their first meeting in the cage, but I agree with Sriram that despite Adesanya coming so close to retaining his title at UFC 281, the greater need to make adjustments lies on him. Like many, I picked Adesanya to cruise to a decision against Pereira by leveraging his greater familiarity with MMA to stifle the Brazilian’s dynamite offense. Most concerningly though, even in the areas where Adesanya should have shown distinct advantages, Pereira was able to compete very well if not flat out win. First, even though Adesanya was able to regularly win the clinch positioning battle, getting favorable grips and head positioning, it was Pereira who was doing the damage up close. That created a real problem for Adesanya, who desperately needed the clinch to be a safety valve when the hulking power puncher pressed him into the cage. Second, Adesanya’s cage craft has been an integral part of his game and it was logical to expect him to find increased success maneuvering around the larger space provided by the Octagon to punish Pereira, who has been lackadaisical with his footwork both in MMA and in his kickboxing career. However, whenever Pereira felt that he needed to turn up the pressure and trap the elusive champion against the fence, he was able to make it happen without too much difficulty. Serving this goal, Pereira showed up with a dialed in kick defense that we hadn’t really seen from him in many of his kickboxing fights and a ramrod jab that he was content to throw at Adesanya’s chest to pin him against the fence.
Even given all the strategic and tactical hurdles that Adesanya will need to overcome, his increasing aversion to risk is an even bigger obstacle. In all three of their fights Adesanya found his most success when he was pressing Pereira, being aggressive and forcing Pereira to react. Pereira’s defense is lacking and he primarily relies on his range and height to insulate him from threats, but in the same way that Pereira is uniquely dangerous to Adesanya because of his size, Adesanya’s length makes it easier for him to exploit Pereira’s weaknesses as well. The biggest issue Adesanya found when trying to pour on offense in their last fight was that he has increasingly leaned into setups that rely on the success of his low kicks, but as mentioned Pereira’s frequent checks nipped a lot of Adesanya’s offense in the bud. There are always adjustments that can be made - he can incorporate more front kicks and round kicks and work more traditional boxing setups - but the biggest question is whether or not we can trust Adesanya to respond to a third defeat to his career rival by turning up the intensity. I think that’s a more difficult question than it seems. After all, most didn’t expect Leon Edwards, who had proved throughout his long career to be largely unconcerned with cagecraft, to stand his ground against Kamaru Usman in their rubber match. Sure, he was bolstered by the momentum of being on the winning side of an all-time great MMA moment and a hometown crowd, but fighters can and do make sudden shifts when the stakes are the highest. The safest pick is to assume that Adesanya will be largely the same as he has been in his last several fights, but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the highest profile and most embarrassing loss of his combat sports career will light a fire underneath Adesanya and we’ll see a level of aggression that has been mostly absent for several years. Adesanya via TKO4.
Tim: It is certainly a significant rivalry that these two striking experts have followed each other from one sport to the next. Yet, it is quite odd that throughout their nearly 11 rounds of action, ‘Poatan’ has scarcely won a round yet has won all three matches. Power, the great equalizer, continues to skew any discussion of this match. The common narrative around their first fight was that Adesanya was cleanly winning up until the knockout and this isn’t true. While it is a convenient story. Pereira was winning and controlling most rounds until a late burst from ‘The Last Stylebender.’
Israel Adesanya has chosen a highly defensive approach in recent bouts against fighters such as Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori. ‘The Last Stylebender’ used this same tactic when faced with Pereira. Even though Adesanya was winning, on the the judges scorecards, their first MMA match against one another, it was a bad idea to give ‘Poatan’ so much time to work. Additionally, it was a bad idea to give ‘Poatan’ so much space to work.
However, the exact inverse would be considered a poor game plan as well. It may seem wise to close the distance and begin pressuring Pereira. But so much of the success of Pereira has come from his opponents chasing him. His signature left hook is a counter punch from the back foot. Thus, we enter the problem Adesanya is finding. Can’t pursue him as he’s a strong counterpuncher, can’t give him space as he will eventually find a home for his power.
Some have suggested that the Nigerian-Kiwi should attempt to use wrestling in this match. Simply, I cannot offer analysis on something I haven’t ever seen. Theoretically, sure. Theoretically, there are a lot of things one could do to succeed, but considering I’ve never seen it I won’t offer any thoughts.
Throughout 111 bouts between professional boxing, kickboxing, and MMA, Adesanya has only ever been knocked out twice, and both at the hands of the same man. Alex Pereira wins via Rd 3 TKO.
Ben: Over the course of three fights, we've seen the dynamics at play with how these two men match up.
When discussing Joanna vs Valentina's fourth total fight against one another, Connor Reubusch mentioned something he said he feels is a broadly true statement about combat sports.
Bad matchups are still bad matchups, even years down the line. Sometimes, regardless of how good a fighter gets, certain fighters just present a set of skills/unique attributes that makes it a near insurmountable task to get a win over their rival.
As mentioned, this fight is not unwinnable for Adesanya at all, and there's a good case to make to pick him.
However, from my perspective, it would take a truly great performance from Adesanya to make picking him a comfortable exercise. As noted already, Adesanya's greatest successes came when he was being more aggressive and willing to enter the space which left him vulnerable to getting hurt.
His risk in the immediate moment was higher, but this would give him the most likely chance to actually damage Pereira, and win the fight.
I don't know if he can, at this point in his career specifically, fight against his instincts to consistently get to those exchanges, like in the first round. Pereira's ability to stymie Adesanya's offense and usual setups, combined with his truly absurd physical gifts and offensive craft, make this a hellish matchup.
Regarding the wrestling, it might be successful for a few rounds if he aggressively pursues it, although it's way too risky to bank on having 25 minutes of wrestling cardio.
If he's going to try and win minutes on the mat, his takedowns need to be "get it or get out".
Upper body takedowns are less energy intensive if done well, and also can be used to get to the back.
If he can't score the TD quickly, he should not drain his energy for too long.
If he can work and wear down Pereira in the clinch, which would require more activity from him rather than holding him, that would be interesting.
All in all, I see this fight being a Pereira pick for me. It's not impossible, but the way Adesanya would need to approach the fight is just too different from his recent performances to assume he can do it. Adesanya by UD, or even KO of his own, is a fair choice. He's got the ability to hurt Pereira and, if he's taken the right lessons, is certainly able to beat Pereira.
But, Pereira has won three times already, twice via KO. It's hard to really say he won't do it again. Alex Pereira via KO, round 3.
Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal
Sriram: I’m not exactly a believer in the -500 price tag for Gilbert Burns here, as an aging fighter himself with some durability concerns historically, but I do think it’s entirely fair that he’s heavily favored. Jorge Masvidal was a matchup I’d definitely consider tricky for Burns at one time - someone with a very consistent jab/check hook game against Burns’ tendency to cover ground with big explosive raids, can kick with Burns at range and probably outkick him (the bodykicking through the open side, especially), and has some offensive advantages in the clinch that could make wrestling quite difficult. However, even there, it isn’t a nightmare by any means for Durinho; Burns’ big edge as a welterweight in all of his fights has been strategic urgency and tactical cleverness, and Masvidal’s big drawback throughout his career has been a tendency to let fights drift away from him in the face of someone who just tries really hard. Peak Masvidal would have a really good chance at outboxing Burns in the open, but would also back himself up for free a lot of the time and consent to competing in any phase Burns presents, where Burns can work a grinding and messy fight he wins by any means necessary (as he did against another slick striker in Stephen Thompson).
At this point, even with Burns being very jabbable and somewhat old, Masvidal is also a much bigger form concern. His clinch and his ringcraft were more lackadaisical than ever against Colby Covington - a challenging matchup for sure, when your weakness is just someone who won’t go away and tries a lot, but one where Masvidal had more than enough opportunity to work against someone who’s fundamentally more harmless from moment-to-moment than any top 170er. Masvidal’s footwork disintegrating also means his defense is a bigger concern, as he went from a lot of slick tactics to take away Darren Till’s best looks to simply shelling up as Colby Covington flung volume at him. Burns showed against Tyron Woodley that he’s very good at making a passive, one-note opponent pay for it - his offense opens up when he doesn’t have to worry about closing distance, and there’s a good chance Masvidal suffers against a Burns who can build off his kicks and put together smart combinations against an opponent stranding themselves on the fence. For all his funkiness, Gilbert Burns is never a forgiving fight - and Masvidal seems to need bigger and bigger margins to work comfortably. Burns by SUB2.
Miguel: I don’t have a lot to add to the technical analysis of this fight and that’s not because the result is a foregone conclusion but because I’m frustrated enough with the matchmaking that it dulls my excitement. It’s by no means a surprise to see the UFC give Masvidal, a Miami native who emerged as an important personality at the very beginning of the ESPN era, a crack at a top five opponent. Perhaps we can look at it with rose-tinted glasses and assume that the UFC is rewarding Burns for his perpetual willingness to fight anyone at any time, including uber-prospect Khamzat Chimaev, by giving him an aging fighter with a name. But it seems much more likely that the UFC is hoping to leapfrog Masvidal back to the top of the division and into an eventual grudge match with champion Leon Edwards, and that, combined with their insistence on shoving Colby Covington down our throats, is incredibly frustrating. Especially since the welterweight division is finally poised for some much needed turnover as new highly skilled and exciting talent like Jack Della Maddalena and Shavkat Rakhmonov has emerged. This may all seem like undue concern for what is otherwise a relatively routine booking, but the real concern is that decent fighters like Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad who put together streaks that should culminate in a chance at the title instead languish just outside the top of the division fighting each other or the next hot prospect while fighters like Masvidal and Covington are given every opportunity available for career advancement.
Even though Gilbert Burns’s age may indicate that his time at the top of the division is waning, Masvidal is even older and longer in the tooth. If both were at their best, this would be an incredibly intriguing matchup and potentially a crackerjack fight with Burns looking to overwhelm Masvidal with big moments of offensive outbursts and Masvidal relying on a sneaky jab and defensive wherewithal to punish Burns’ aggression. At this stage in their careers I’m expecting it instead to look a bit more like Masvidal’s fight with Demian Maia, where Burns looks to replay the quick success he found against Neil Magny but is met with an always better-than-expected defensive grappler in Masvidal. Burns via UD.
Tim: It feels as though whenever MMA fans begin to discuss Jorge Masvidal their brains fall out. Whether it be his personal life or his fighting skills, his career has become an area for meatheads. These meathead fans have seen three clips of the man and confidently avoid the rest of his career.
Jorge Masvidal has a strong and quick body kick. He’s game in the clinch. He is also happy to have a very slow match where it seems he believes that the UFC has become a point-fighting system.
Gilbert Burns is a world-champion BJJ player who has also scored knockdowns against Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev.
On the technical side, Burns has struggled to close the distance in the past. He will wing massive overhangs or dash in to strike against his opponents. Masvidal may find success competing in the space in between and making it a boring match. However, any exchanges or contact will quickly favour the ‘Giblert.’ Masvidal is likely to retire on a loss. ‘Giblert’ Gilbert Burns via Rd 2 TKO.
Ben: This fight is not particularly interesting to me at this stage in Masvidal's career. Burns is likely durable enough to survive the first round, where Masvidal would be most dangerous these days (you'd think).
It'll come down to, I think, how well Burns can get his wrestling going. A pure standup affair is not ideal, and would give Masvidal more opportunities to land his counters and excellent body kicks.
I can also see him countering some of Burns' leg kicks with counters.
All that being said, Burns should, especially as the fight goes on, be able to wear on Masvidal with his wrestling. Gilbert Burns by Unanimous Decision.
Rob Font vs Adrian Yanez
Sriram: Rob Font is in a tough spot, far tougher than a fighter of his caliber deserves - absolutely one of the most interesting and well-constructed fighters at one of the best divisions in the sport, Font put together about nine total rounds of blistering offense in his last two fights only to win neither. The question there is whether his struggles against Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera came from just physical regression, or whether it was simply that he fought two of the more defined anti-volume fighters at 135. The peril of being a fighter with a deep but narrow approach - usually the mark of smart skill development - is that it doesn’t always leave much of a plan-B; Font’s monomaniacal aggression against those two left him in harm’s way again and again, even with a lot of clever defensive and transitional looks off his own jab. He’s a bit like a higher-level version of Michael Bisping - a 1-2-clinch game is reliable enough and can easily take over a fight, but crafty and dynamic counter threats can make overwhelming styles without overwhelming durability look far too risky to work.
This raises some very interesting and specific questions for Adrian Yanez, assuming (for the sake of making the pick interesting) that Font isn’t far off his peak and an 11-month break did him more good than the previous 5-month one. Yanez absolutely has a range where he can put Font in trouble - a phenomenal and well-schooled combination puncher in exchanges, Yanez is certainly more comfortable in closer-range fights than Font (who prefers to dip in and out of the pocket, hanging out at the end of his own long jab). However, this range has been taken away in certain fights; Davey Grant’s commitment to staying far away and being weird brought a frustrating fight out of Yanez where Yanez largely won on the counter, and Randy Costa gave Yanez a ton of early trouble with a furious jabbing assault that was all but a Font performance until Costa gassed (and Font’s gas tank is, in contrast, beyond reproach). Yanez has some pressuring looks, but is largely a fighter who operates in neutral space, looking to slip and counter in combination - taking what you’re given against Rob Font seems a bit like drinking from a fire hose, at least for all but the craftiest fighters who make a consistent game of adjusting and punishing volume.
Yanez could be that guy, secretly - which would be horrible luck for Font, since that kind of fighter is pretty rare. However, it seems more likely that Yanez’s game is simply a poor fit to deal with Rob Font outside of Font just being done physically. It is worth mentioning that Yanez didn’t just wait for Costa to gas out jabbing him, as Yanez started jabbing with him to regain control of the cage; the counterjab was the bane of Font’s existence against Vera, but as Cody Garbrandt showed, that’s far from a sure thing against an offensive fighter so compounding. Yanez is also a bit of an unknown quantity in the clinch/wrestling, as of now - Font’s clinch game off his own jab (converting to frames and collar ties with shocking regularity as his opponents react) is absolutely fantastic, in a way that likely complicates a slip-counter game (even Aldo fell victim to that many times), and Font somehow gets takedowns on almost everyone he fights. Font’s lost two straight against opponents who both got jabbed a lot, but I still can’t bring myself to pick against one of the deepest jabbers in the sport in a fight where he probably gets both the jab and control of the cage through the jab. Font by decision.
Miguel: I respect the pick from Sriram and recognize that Yanez indeed has shown vulnerability to high volume offense, but this is yet another matchup where momentum is firmly in favor of one fighter. Font is coming off heartbreaking back-to-back losses for the first time in his career and even showed up a few pounds heavy in his last outing. Meanwhile, Yanez has spent his first two years in the promotion putting together a streak of five victories, all of which the UFC deemed worthy of performance bonuses. Yanez won’t be able to rely on momentum alone though as Font represents a very big step up from his previous opponents.
It’s important to note that a big part of Randy Costa’s first round success was his ability to force Yanez onto the back foot. That bodes well for Font, who will undoubtedly be happy to push forward and is much craftier with his swarming than Yanez is used to. Furthermore, Yanez seems easy to bust up and quickly adorned a leaky countenance in the first rounds of his fights with Costa and Tony Kelley. That means that similar to Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo, Yanez will have to find big moments of offense to win back rounds but he’ll have less rounds to do so.
At different points in their careers, it would be easier for me to pick the veteran who brings a difficult style matchup, but I can’t bring myself to pick a nearly 36 year old bantamweight who appears increasingly fragile to overwhelm a much younger, fresher, and harder hitting fighter. Yanez will need to find a way to stand his ground and push Font back, but I think he can do that by catching and countering kicks (as he did against Kelley) and counter jabbing (as he did against Costa). Even if we look past his age, Font has always been hittable, not just because he’s a swarmer who regularly puts himself in range to be hit, but also because he’s lacking defensively. Font primarily relies on keeping his hands high and trusting in his own volume to dissuade opponents from throwing back, but Yanez is equipped to work around a high guard and very willing to throw back in the midst of longer combinations. It’s possible that Font deviates from his usual approach and tests the wrestling and grappling defense of Yanez (which we know relatively little about). If the fight plays out primarily in boxing range, I trust Yanez to find some shots to back Font off, which will allow him enough time being on the front foot to craft some spicy combinations that work around the guard of Font and finish him off. Yanez via TKO2.
Tim: Bantamweight never misses, this is another banger and a potential fight of the night. We’re all a little high on Adrian Yanez who is on a nine-fight win streak. Whereas, Rob Font is coming off two losses. Albeit against top-five competition.
The last pure southpaw striker Yanez faced was Randy Costa in 2021. In this bout, Yanez gave up dozens of jabs to his opponent. The first round saw Yanez out-struck a whopping 50 to 17 on head strikes. To win the fight, Yanez pressured forward in round two showing a significant advantage in cardio. All the while, giving up jabs even as he was winning. Since then, Yanez has faced two switch hitters.
At UFC 287, Yanez will face a pure southpaw striker with a strong jab Rob Font. It seems likely that Adrian Yanez is about to learn a lesson as to why the jab is the most important tool a fighter can have. Rob Font Via Rd 1 TKO.
Ben: Is Yanez going to be able to wade through the incoming whirlwind of volume Font is about to throw at him to land his counters?
We've seen him do so against much less skilled versions of that gameplan in Randy Costa, but there's a vast skill discrepancy there.
Thing is, Font is likely just not durable enough. This might look eerily similar to his prior performances, winning minutes but losing on moments. Is Yanez going to finish Font? I'm not sure. For me, this is another fight where the path to victory is there for the older veteran, but the age/durability just isn't necessarily there to confidently pick them. Adrian Yanez by TKO, round 3.