Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje II: The Fight Site Preview
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 291 may not be headlined by a title fight, the way the promotion tends to prefer — but the UFC also tends to have a very high bar for non-title fights they trust to headline pay-per-views, to the point that those bouts (mostly including Conor McGregor, in recent years) are often more anticipated than the typical fight for a belt. In the case of Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2, there are very few fights more deserving of that trust, even atop a better-than-average card for the year at an altitude that breaks men on its own — the first bout in 2018 delivered on all the promises made, where two of the most dynamic and violent boxers at 155 absolutely battered each other for just over fifteen minutes. Their Glendale meeting, however, was under very different circumstances; Poirier was just starting to break the impression of a fragile banger who’d take one big step back for every two steps forward, where Gaethje was 1-1 in the UFC with more of a reputation for life-shortening fights than any expectations of being a persistent elite. Since then, both men have held interim UFC belts — Poirier has become a bona-fide all time great (not just at the weight class but for the sport itself) with two wins over Conor McGregor and ending the winstreak of Max Holloway, where Gaethje changed up his own approach to dominate Tony Ferguson on the hottest streak 155 had ever seen. While neither man was able to unify the belts against Khabib Nurmagomedov, both subsequently proved that their spot atop the division wasn’t simply there for the next hot prospect to take — as both Dan Hooker and Rafael Fiziev found, at different points.
At the time of their current meeting, both Poirier and Gaethje are veterans off solid wins — and with every new contender getting turned back at the cusp of a title shot (namely Beneil Dariush at the hands of Charles Oliveira, the other shared loss for Poirier and Gaethje), the title shot queue is a lot shorter than it would otherwise be for fighters with several chances at the undisputed crown behind them. With a different champion atop the mountain in Islam Makhachev, Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 is likely a title eliminator — but given the brutality of the first fight, it could also easily spell the end of an elite tenure for one (or even both) of them. The Fight Site Staff look to the first fight and how both men have grown, to see which one can position himself for yet another opportunity at the top of 155.
Sriram Muralidaran: Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje have had pretty much identical paths since their first fight - their records are actually exactly the same, they’ve taken the same two losses, and neither has been knocked out of their spot on top of the division since Poirier’s fourth-round knockout win in April 2018. However, this somewhat belies how they’ve grown apart a bit since their fight - in ways that many would interpret positively for Gaethje, but I’m a lot less convinced of that.
Poirier, for all intents and purposes, is the same fighter as he was in the first meeting - an extremely bizarre but nevertheless absurdly comfortable pocket-boxer in exchanges, in the southpaw mold of Robbie Lawler (less rangy double-attacking, more close-range exchanges where the jab and right hook gain primacy). In fight 1, the story was how Poirier would deal with someone looking to back him up for the entire fight - and while Poirier has never looked like a particularly great outfighter in terms of ring positioning and footwork, he did force Gaethje to fight hard for every inch of ground. Gaethje’s biggest successes came from Poirier’s need to back him off - Gaethje’s presence and pace forced Poirier’s characteristic shifting entries, and Gaethje’s counters opened up as he induced Poirier’s more committed work. As a result, Poirier got his base knocked out again and again as he tried to gain ground towards the center - but in between those, Poirier’s work in midrange was far more than Gaethje could handle. Gaethje’s committed and sweeping counterwork looked so devastating against the fence or with Poirier coming in with big swings, but looked equally useless as Poirier picked at him with jabs in the center, keeping the counters difficult to time and keeping himself in positions to respond (largely with that tricky shell). As a result, Gaethje would often have to default to a high-guard as Poirier had the room to box scientifically - and Poirier’s varied and sharp combination work around the guard played havoc with Gaethje there too.
The issue there seems clear - fight 1 was extraordinarily close, and in fact an immediate rematch would’ve seen me pick Gaethje on the effectiveness of those legkicks, but he’s moved away from the parts of his style that worked against Poirier and towards the components that got him beat up the most. Since Poirier, Gaethje has moved wholesale away from pressure - preferring a style of lateral movement on the outside and dropping 2-3s whenever they get into bad positions chasing him. To be clear, this isn’t something Poirier is immune to, as someone who loves shifting into range - but Gaethje’s approach has also fallen apart against opponents who put some kind of premium on their stance closing in. Where Ferguson and Cerrone played directly into this style as fighters who love entering range with their feet level and their momentum committed, Nurmagomedov and Oliveira feinted him into massive overreactions and stayed safe by keeping their positioning in check - and Poirier seems likely to key in on occupying Gaethje with his less-committed straight punches before giving him big entries to time. Gaethje’s counters are solid, but much more in the context of pressure - without that, Gaethje’s inability to throw counters at half-speed is a big liability, and Poirier likely won’t have to reach and expose himself (where a rangy and long opponent like Dan Hooker forced that just to reach him, and could suddenly switch to holding his ground and blasting in the pocket to catch Poirier unaware). Dustin can just jab from the start, and unlike Fiziev, Poirier’s handfighting and defense makes it much more difficult for Gaethje to just beat him in a jabbing match.
Rematches are always weird, and altitude makes this weirder. But Gaethje’s optimal fight got him knocked out last time in a 50/50 - this time, feels like Poirier gets all he needs for clean exchanges on his terms, and Gaethje has to go back to an approach he hasn’t used for years for much luck in making Dustin uncomfortable. Poirier by TKO3.
Haxxorized: I said a while back that the story of Gaethje lives or dies with how he ties his skillsets together. His aggressive forward pressure was good, yet lacked “connective tissue” to his wrestling threat. Pressure using that power and intensity can be fantastic when used to get the other guy swinging back at you - a few basic counter-threats then become exponentially more dangerous. The question is always about the quality of his transitions, or in other terms:
Can Gaethje consistently pressure people into throwing back at him on the fence and smack them with counter-strikes?
Can Gaethje mix wrestling into his pressure and his counterpunching, adding flourishes like more activity from the clinch, hitting the body (something he should always be doing but never did enough), or level changes and other transitions?
Can Gaethje tighten up his form to make his pressure more sustainable?
He has done none of those things. Instead of developing new skills to tie them to his old strengths, he leaned more into being a backfoot stereotype of the Wittman camp. He is thus weaker than he could be. MMA is too broad and deep a sport to be good at everything. Ergo, you should specialise in what you are best at, using transitions to take your B game and mix it in with your A game. Your A game should (ideally) combine your athletic attributes and preferred style/habits. Yet post-Tony fight, Gaethje has increasingly looked like a guy trying to max his B game, having learned that B game half a decade too late.
Compare that to Dustin, who has a game that leans into his best qualities. Hell, you can argue Porier might even show a little self-awareness to recognise after an incredible strength-of-schedule LW run after being a pretty "mid" FW fighter he may not have the capability to solve those old problems anyway. He remains sharp and effective in the pocket, comfortable enough to trade if you chase him (even if his ringcraft is flawed, he still lands) and can sustain his tremendous engine through five rounds of risk when working his way into the midrange. Combine that with solid fundamentals for winning an MMA jabbing game - as jab wars remain a time-honoured way of burning dead time when you do not want to risk getting your head sniped off, and you have a fighter that makes sense.
Fighting somebody in their areas of strength is a dangerous game. Nobody has been able to do it against Porier, banking on you somehow being “the guy” to break that seems a low-percentage strategy. It was sustained (and high-cost) attacks against Poirier’s weaknesses by Gaethje that found him the most success in their first fight: a simple example being the low kicks as part of a sustained pressure game that forced Dustin to move at a pace other than his own. That creates opportunities to punish shifts, land counters and load up outside of being cut open in the midrange. Sure, the Poirier shifting might get him in trouble at points: but in the broader strategic contest, Dustin loves a fight where he can occupy his opponent with less-committal straights and work with his intentions, range and stability before throwing power punches. A “Shin Akuma” perfect Gaethje who had combined his wrestling, counterpunching and pressure is a nightmarish fight for Dustin - that fighter that does not exist and never will.
Dustin should feel pretty good about the rematch for all those reasons. There are openings for Gaethje. Likewise, his wrestling always could have been prominent here - hell of an assumption to make that he comes out with that now, though.
Ben Kohn: There’s not much for me to add in terms of the fight dynamics at play here. The first fight took place on a razor’s edge, with both men taking advantage of the flaws in each other’s game, and maximizing their offensive output throughout the bout.
With the change in approach we’ve seen Gaethje take over the past few years, it’s hard to assume he will suddenly revert back to what he did in the first fight, and we can’t expect him to start blending the best aspects of the two approaches he’s had in his career. So we’re stuck with a fight that will potentially take place where Poirier thrives, a mid-range striking battle. If Gaethje won’t force the issue, it’ll give Poirier more time to set up his combinations, get Gaethje whiffing on big counters, and possibly make this look one-sided in a way you wouldn’t expect, considering how close the first fight was.
It’s almost impossible to imagine a fight that has such a clear path for Gaethje to follow to maximize his chances of winning, but that path also requires him now, at 34, to dust off his tools from 2018. Can he do it? Yes, it’s possible. He’d have had to really dedicate himself in camp to bringing himself back into that fighting mode. The issue is, it’ll also force a pace that is probably unsustainable, even in the best of conditions. With this fight happening at elevation, I can only see it working for a few rounds, if he doesn’t finish Poirier. He will gas, and a gassed Gaethje early on with Poirier is a horrific situation to deal with. I think we see Poirier win this fight regardless of Gaethje’s approach, but I expect this to be a more one-sided affair than the first. I could be wrong, and Gaethje’s win over Fiziev should remind everyone, including myself, not to count him out of fights. That being said, Dustin Poirier via TKO round 3.