Errol Spence vs Terence Crawford: The Fight Site Predictions

Terence Crawford and Errol Spence have been circling each other for years. Now they finally step in the ring, in one of the biggest clashes boxing has seen for years. There’s a lot of questions to be answered here, and the Fight Site staff are here with our thoughts on the subject. 

Taylor: Hey there - it’s been a while! This has probably been my most anticipated matchup in boxing for a good five years or so now, although I admit that I’d all but lost interest given how unlikely it was looking that this would ever get made. But here we are, and whilst Crawford-Spence isn’t quite as exciting as it would’ve been back in 2019, it’s still almost certainly going to be the biggest fight this year. So, how do I see it panning out?

If you asked me a few years ago, I’d have said that this is a true 50/50 pick’em - both men are versatile and can outbox opponents at range (Postol, Garcia) as well as beat them on the inside (Horn, Porter). Crawford is the superior boxer of the two, but Spence has the advantage in terms of volume and physicality. Yet whilst he may be the bigger man in the ring on Saturday, will Spence be able to impose himself on Bud up-close? I’m not so sure. Despite his frame, Crawford is physically strong at 147lbs and knows how to wrestle inside - just ask Jeff Horn, who was bullied throughout their fight back in 2018. Furthermore, Crawford hits hard enough to earn Spence’s respect, and I think he can take away the Texan’s volume with sharp, well-timed counters and offset his pressure by staying mobile. I’m expecting to see Bud box patiently out of the orthodox stance at first, with the closed-stance dynamic making it harder for Spence to land and build off of his jab, which will lead to him attacking from too far out - keep an eye out for Crawford landing the left hook as well as his own jab over the top of Spence’s lead hand, as well as uppercuts when Spence leans in. As the fight goes on, we may well see Crawford switch to southpaw and step to Spence, pushing the bigger man back. I have Bud winning a clear 8-4 type decision with a knockdown along the way, and whilst I’ve been flirting with picking a late stoppage given Bud’s killer finishing instincts, Spence’s size and physicality may be enough to see him hear the final bell. If it does go to the cards, don’t be surprised to see some classic Vegas bullshit (hey, its been a little while since we’ve had big-fight controversy!) with one head-scratcher of a scorecard. 

Mateusz:  Oh boy, boxing frustrates (fuck you, heavyweight), but when the big fights are delivered there’s no intrigue like it.
Crawford-Spence truly is one of these match-ups; two supposedly generational talents, who, having the obvious talent, very much need one another to really cement their respective legacies.
That’s not to say they haven’t fought tough opponents, and have been shown the way through a few rounds, including by common opponents (Porter, Kell Brook), but ultimately their ascents have been smooth enough to not have a legend-establishing fight or rivalry on their records.
It's odd to label Spence as rudimentary. But, under certain relevant circumstances in this matchup, it's kinda true.
Spence is a shifting landslide of a fighter, lots of inexorable energy and a building tempo, versus Crawford, the cold, calculating biffing-computer.
The main problem, as I see it, is that despite being something of an athletic specimen, Spence is not particularly sophisticated from the outside, and not especially quick, either to the punch or at covering distance.
Once at close range, he has a very broad repertoire; an immensely enjoyable fighter to watch when he gets down into the trenches and starts shoveling.
Adept at headposting, handfighting and just I’m applying physical leverage to control and keep track of his opponents, Spence is often able to direct them to where he wants his foe at any given time.
He's also a very diligent rib-killer, using bodywork to slow his opponents and open up the head for shots.
The problem is, Bud has a beautiful control of range, for the most part (the most qualifier is important). He is also quick, powerful and extremely quick to make reads on his opponents - despite on occasion starting notably slowly, a boon to the fast-starting Spence - so Spence's relatively crude distance covering tools will likely not stay very effective for long.
Spence has one opportunity that is likely to bear some fruit for him though; Bud, while not given to full complacency exactly, can be a little lackadaisical in moving back or giving ground when faced with a rushing opponent. Shawn Porter, a shorter and slower fighter than Spence, managed to bum-rush his way into Bud's chest and clip him a time or two over the course of there fight. Also notable however is that Porter's final charge before being finished basically consisted of rushing Crawford, the difference being that Bud had decided that this time such a thing was unseemly and decided to end the fight.
The larger, longer and considerably better inside fighter in Spence should however be able to capitalise a bit more.
Here's the kicker, though.
Having gotten to the inside, the now-rolling Spence may assume to have the upper hand. What he is likely to find out is that Bud is pretty fucking comfortable here too.
And here's the most fascinating potentiality of the fight for me; their respective styles on the inside should make for a very interesting fight in close.
Spence is a head-down, foot-shifting, rib-ripping bastard, working away like a man desperate to chop a tree down with his bare hands.
Bud Crawford is more upright, more eyes-on, usually protecting his ribs extremely diligently (Porter, a crude but powerful bulldog inside himself, was almost ineffectual in close) while effectively protecting his head in a shell, able to see punches and roll and counter with great accuracy, and in combination. Moreover, he has the presence of mind to set traps, even in the midst of the maelstrom working away at his defences.
Spence is bigger, drives a higher pace, and likely stronger and so will likely test Bud's poise and conditioning like no other fighter has. The tie-ups will be fascinating, though, because despite his relative slimness Crawford is clearly freakishly strong and likes to prove it with a bit of wrestling.
But enough prevarication; I think Bud being close to (or perhaps even equal to) Spence on the inside will prove decisive. Bud will not be blown away there, but, if he doesn't like it, simply has the option, clear-headedness and discipline to take the fight to more open waters where I suspect Spence won't quite be able to follow.
I would not be surprised if Bud found the finish he so often does, but Spence is tough, extremely well-conditioned and dogged as fuck, and his own pace and physicality may just be enough to stay awake. So, a Bud Crawford UD it is.

Lukasz: It looks like we’re all more-or-less in agreement here. Spence is really good. Crawford is great. It’s not just that he has more options - it’s that what Spence wants to be doing is what Crawford most wants his opponents to be doing. Spence needs to push, he isn’t going to win doing anything else- but in doing so he’ll be giving Crawford openings, and showing him habits he can condition into flaws as the fight goes on.
Spence’s chance is that, in some of his fights, Crawford has focused harder on getting his reads than getting scoring punches on the board. To date, he hasn’t been caught out by that habit, but if anyone can build up enough of a lead then survive long enough once he decides the fight needs turning, it’s Spence. 
But the counter to that is that if anyone is sharp enough to counter the mistakes Spence does make as he comes in- and they aren’t many but they exist- it’s Crawford. And Spence takes a lot of shots, he’s an attritional fighter who’s happy to take one to land two. Against most people, he’s the more damaging puncher so that works- but Crawford’s one might be enough to stop Spence throwing the two in the first place. 
As with both the other guys, I wouldn’t be surprised by a knockout- but I am going with Crawford by decision.