Boxing Preview, May 20th: Haney vs Lomachenko, Katie Taylor, and more.
Photo by Jeff Lewis/Top Rank Inc via Getty Images
We have not one but two undisputed title fights in boxing this weekend. Not only does Vasiliy Lomachenko make his tilt at gaining all the belts Devin Haney holds, but Katie Taylor steps up a weight to challenge Chantelle Cameron for her collection. Let’s take a look.
Devin Haney vs Vasiliy Lomachenko
Undisputed 135lb title fight
The route to this fight has been long, twisty, full of sanctioning-body and promotional bullshit, shock upsets, injury and one war. The long and short of it, though, is that Haney has all the belts but still has some things to prove as far as being a truly elite boxer goes, whereas Lomachenko has a chip on his shoulder over losing the chance to unify the belts a few years ago.
Style-wise, the likely dynamic is pretty clear. At its simplest: Lomachenko will be trying to do things, whereas Haney will be stopping him trying to do things. That is, of course, a simplification, and a little unfair to Haney. But it’s broadly true not just because Lomachenko is the more aggressive fighter of the two, but because the flaws that might exist to exploit in Haney are things that Lomachenko’s usual gameplan is most suited to exploiting. He needs to stop Loma moving around him in the tight angles and circling steps he loves not just because that is what Loma loves, but because Haney may have specific problems with that style.
What it comes down to is something I’ve talked about before: a little disconnect between Haney’s head and his feet.
It’s not huge, or easily visible, but it’s a possible explanation for both of the main issues we’ve seen from him, even in his wins. When he throws, even with full power, he’s not properly throwing from the feet, which follow the punch rather than generating it. It both means he gets off-balance sometimes, and that even when really putting his all into it, his shots don’t have the power they should.
Defensively, what we’ve seen from him is that even though he’s very tough to hit, when an opponent does pin him down he seems to be more moved by the shots than the power would account for. Sometimes he seems hurt, but others it’s not even that- he’s simply staggered a step or two before he regainst his balance.
The problem is essentially the same one: when he takes a shot, his head moves with it but the movement stops at his waist; if he leans too far with it at certain angles, he’s not adjusting his lower-body balance to compensate, and has to take steps to recover.
He’s covered that well so far in his career. Good opponents like Jorge Linares and Joseph Diaz have shown signs that it exists, but not been able to exploit it. Thing is, both of those are notably quite average movers, for their overall level. Lomachenko clearly is not. If that flaw does exist to the extent it seems, his circles and angles seem the prime thing to make Haney pay for it.
It won’t be easy though, because for all his brilliance Lomachenko does have a couple of potential flaws of his own, and Haney isn’t entirely unsuited to finding them either. Most notably, when he lost to Teofimo Lopez, it was because he spent too long unable to find a way inside his opponent’s reach. Lopez has a good jab and excellent timing on the follow-up shots, and Loma didn’t have good second options when he found his initial efforts intercepted.
Haney won’t have that interception game down quite as well - he simply doesn’t have the power, for one thing- but he is a more natural defensive mover than Lopez and probably has a better jab. Or at least, a more varied one. If he’s able to jab and step off cleanly enough, Lomachenko may find it a struggle to negate the size advantage.
That size will factor when in close too. Haney isn’t a particularly skilled clinch fighter, but what’s crucial here is, really, neither is Lomachenko. He’s certainly got better at it in recent years, but the unusual thing about the Ukrainan magician is he doesn’t really clinch-fight even when at clinching range- because that impedes his movement. Essentially, he uses mid-range techniques at extremely close range. It’s a lot of what makes him so hard to deal with, but it does make him potentially vulnerable if an opponent is just there to stifle him: as Haney will try to do.
That isn’t to say Loma doesn’t know the tricks. He does, but often his response when held onto has been to simply swing his opponent round sharply, in an attempt to break free. It’s extremely unsubtle, and quite possible that doing so repeatedly has contributed to the shoulder injury he was carrying during the Lopez fight and has since had surgery on. He’s worked on more technical ways to work his way free since, but it’s never been his favourite thing to do, and Haney may find some success in stifling him that way.
All that makes it a hard fight to predict. There are, of course, far more unanswered questions about Haney. The result probably comes down to the success of that jab. If Loma can breeze past it and Haney is relying on holding alone to stop his plans, he may frustrate the Ukranian, but he isn’t likely to be scoring points while doing so. So he’ll need to spend substantial time keeping his opponent at range. It’s a tricky, well-balanced one, this.
The two other fights on the PPV portion of the card are… well, okay. Oscar Valdez returns after his loss to Shakur Stevenson a year ago, in a tune-up agains Adam Lopez. More interesting is Raymond Muratalla, seeking to make the step from prospect to contender by beating Jeremia Nakathila.
The real attraction is at the top of the prelims portion, airing on ESPN and ESPN+ in the US. There, we’ll see Junto Nakatani in action, looking to win a super flyweight title against Andrew Moloney. The rising Japanese star, an unnerringly accurate puncher with a superb lead hand, is potentially good enough to have a future on the p4p lists, but Moloney will be good enough to test if his defence is up to scratch against the bigger opponents at superfly.
Katie Taylor vs Chantelle Cameron
undisputed women’s 140lb title fight
So… Katie Taylor’s big homecoming. She hasn’t fought in Ireland as a professional yet - apparently largely because of the complexity of making fights without any MTK fighters involved, which she didn’t want to do and may have caused problems getting the card sanctioned anyway. In any case, MTK has gone down the tubes as a management company, so the way is clear.
This was meant to be the rematch against Amanda Serrano, at Taylor’s usual weight of 135lbs. Serrano got injured shortly after that was announced, though, so instead Taylor decided she was going to attempt to be undisputed in two divisions, and stepped up to challenge Chantelle Cameron, for the belts she’s collected.
Of the two, Taylor is of course far the more experienced. Not just as an amateur - although they’ve both collected all the belts, Taylor’s battles with Serrano, Delfine Persoon and Natasha Jonas are far more credible tests of skill (even if close, and in some cases controversial) than the majority of Cameron’s opponents. She did however beat Jessica McCaskill to unify this division, and that is a very good win.
It is a fight that might give a clue as to why Taylor should have the advantage here, though, even though she’s much smaller than McCaskill and a very different fighter. Simply put: Cameron completely outclassed McCaskill early in the fight, but a combination of the older woman finding her range and Cameron simply seeming to tire a bit meant the second half went the other way.
And sure, Taylor won’t be as physical as McCaskill. If she has to weather a storm, she’ll be taking a bit more damage than McCaskill maybe did, or at least wear it more. But on the other hand, it simply isn’t going to happen that she’s made to miss as badly and as consistently as McCaskill was. She’s far too skilled for that. Cameron slowed and nearly wilted in that fight while taking very little actual damage. In this one, she will be.
Her main route to victory will be where it usually is for Taylor’s opponents- she’s very good at range, and very good inside, but a little ropey sometimes in transition, occasionally leaving her chin out and over her front foot as she closes range. If Cameron can get her jab going, force Taylor to work her way past it, then intercept her as she comes, she’s got a decent shot at stopping the movement in its tracks. If she can do that, she’s on to a good thing.
The biggest problem will simply be that there seems to be a pretty sizeable speed difference. And that while Cameron is a pretty smooth boxer in what she does, she has so far lacked some of the little details in timing and positioning that Taylor has shown she has. If she misses the intercepting shot, or Taylor simply takes it, Cameron will find it hard to adjust or distance herself as Taylor works in close. That makes Taylor the favourite, but it’s a very close fight, and that the local hero is 36 and has clearly been somewhat on the downslope of her career for a couple of years now may need to be factored.
The co-main here sees Terri Harper fight Cecilia Braekhus, with the WBA super-welterweight title on the line. Braekhus was once arguably the best fighter in women’s boxing but… well, she’s 41. Terri Harper may not be having quite the career she hoped for before Alycia Baumgardner upset her 2 years ago and 14lbs lighter, but… well, she’s not 41. And the new weight may suit her health much better. Braekhus will be hoping for one last hurrah, but Harper will be optimistic here.
Beyond that, it’s a raft of Irish fighters, in what should be decent entertainment. You may see a claim that Dennis Hogan’s fight against Jamie Metcalf is for a world title. Don’t be fooled, it’s just the IBO, but it’s a good scrap nonetheless. Gary Cully is a towering 6 foot 2 lightweight with a hell of a lot of power and some charisma: at 27 he needs to get a move on, but he’s got potential. And Caoimhin Agyarko fights Grant Dennis in a middleweight scrap in which Agyarko is definitely favourite but which should be fun.