UFC 288: The Fight Site Staff Picks
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Cejudo vs Sterling
Sriram: The UFC’s most cursed championship continues its journey. Aljamain Sterling has struggled for legitimacy as a champion, for a few reasons - the TJ Dillashaw win obviously had the caveat of an early major injury to his opponent, the method of his wins over former champion Petr Yan were less than convincing (especially down the stretch), and the subsequent form of Yan has made those showings seem less excusable. The belt started as a bit of an albatross for “the Funkmaster”, and the Yan rematch made that no longer the case, but most of Sterling’s claim to being #1 still comes from fights with no belt on the line - successive wins over Jimmie Rivera, Pedro Munhoz, and (especially) Cory Sandhagen make his position as a top pound-for-pounder absolutely undisputable. That said, his fight at UFC 288 can very easily unravel any claim to being the legitimate bantamweight #1 in the public eye - as the former champion who vacated looks to get it back.
I think Henry Cejudo is an interesting opponent for Sterling in the sense that he’s absolutely smart enough to know when it makes sense to fight dumb. This might sound like a backhanded compliment, but the Moraes fight is a great example of why it isn’t backhanded at all - Cejudo started it out with no real idea how to approach the great Brazilian contender, but eventually just figured out that he was faster and more durable and the best way to leverage that was just to keep his right hand in Moraes’ face until he crumbled. An approach not being remotely transferable to lesser athletes doesn’t make it wrong, essentially - neither of Cejudo’s showings for the 135 belt were all that deep from a tactical perspective, but he consistently landed on the right broad strategic points with the athletic margins to afford a few lost exchanges on the way. Having absolutely absurd hips and sound responses at every stage to takedowns, plus a real five-round tank even with a hard cut to 125, makes Cejudo a tricky athletic matchup on the face of it for Sterling - an opponent who responds to smoke and mirrors with unceasing and enthusiastic aggression would seem to make it harder. Someone like Petr Yan was prone to outsmarting himself a bit against Sterling, particularly in the rematch, and Sterling still barely got through it when Yan just went mad and shifted at him through the later stages of that fight - on the other hand, Dominick Cruz is perhaps the fighter most suited to making fighters overthink, and Cejudo just stayed committed to a game that was essentially designed to totally ignore as many of Cruz’s tricks as possible.
So if Cejudo just commits to that same kind of game against Sterling’s tricky movement and long-range volume - storming forward, cutting off movement with kicks, exploiting the fact that he’s just a bigger hitter with a better tank - I think it’s constitutionally tough for Sterling. The fight I’m most thinking about here is honestly Pedro Munhoz; Sterling looked phenomenal overloading Pedro with light volume and stopping his advances with jabs and direction changes, but it clearly wore on him in a three-round fight, and Munhoz got a lot of (underscored) attrition that a more nimble and footspeedy fighter could convert into a winning gambit over 5 rounds. That said, a 3-year layoff is big in a division so young - Cejudo’s camp has actually had some very nice successes in the interim, his mind for the sport is clearly there, but the fact that his own style only really works in the context of someone completely immortal makes a layoff fairly relevant. Sterling isn’t a big hitter but he is a fighter who doesn’t allow mistakes - he’s not a forgiving opponent by any means, and the stylistic edge Cejudo holds is very contingent on his attributes and his reactions being there. I’ll very tentatively go with Cejudo by TKO5, but I don't feel good about it.
Javi: The jokes about this matchup write themselves. Both men won their first belt in disputed decisions against fighters touted as greater or better than them, both defended it against versions of TJ Dillashaw that were nearly unrecognizable from the explosive movement machine we all know and love, and both now struggle against accusations of fraudulence despite each being objectively very skilled and great in their own rights. The biggest threat posed by Aljamain Sterling here is obviously his ability to snatch control of the back with minuscule windows of opportunity almost invisible to most other fighters. However, Cejudo is no stranger to freaky fast opportunistic scramblers as we’re all well aware, and the fact he was able to not only hang with Demetrious Johnson, but make him really struggle on the mat is to me an infinitely more impressive feat than taking the back of Cory Sandhagen. Much of Sterling’s success in offensive wrestling also comes from tie-ups rather than open space shots, and this has been true since his days as a promising talent in Division III. We’ve seen what happens to people who tie up with Henry Cejudo, and as skilled and physically strong a wrestler as Sterling is he simply does not have the hips that Cejudo does, as was demonstrated nearly every time he was relegated to bottom in the referee’s position (it would not be an exaggeration to say that Cejudo’s switches are at least twice as fast as Sterling’s). This is not to say Sterling is a bad defensive wrestler obviously, I’ve seen him survive in spots that would mean a pin for most other wrestlers; but he also never survived in those spots against someone as purely skilled in all areas on the mat as Cejudo. I believe even an old and possibly decrepit Cejudo would not concede some of the points that Sterling has at or near his peak. The shock of some readers is understandable: “What?! An Olympic gold medalist and generational wrestling prodigy is an objectively better scrambler than a DIII athlete?” I know, right? All this to say I don’t expect Sterling to snatch Cejudo’s back for any significant amount of time because Henry will most likely either seize the initiative on offense and keep Sterling struggling for opportunities from bottom or deny Sterling any action in the grappling realm whatsoever. On the feet, I expect Sterling to have more visible success at the start of the fight, likely coming forward at Cejudo and keeping him guessing and reaching with his trademark long, janky offense. However, as was previously mentioned, I also expect Cejudo will find much of the attritional success that Pedro Munhoz was able to find against Sterling with his kicks as well as meaningful bodywork whenever Sterling forces the clinch, and if this happens we will see a very tired Sterling by the end of the 3rd and a newly offensive-minded Cejudo ready to fling hard shots at his prey with undeterrable enthusiasm. For these reasons, I am also going with Cejudo by TKO5 but I DO feel rather good about it.
Tim: This is a battle of world champions in the UFC’s most stacked division. Aljamain Sterling will be looking to defend his throne against the former two-division king Henry Cejudo. Without any X factors to consider, it feels like an easy pick for Cejudo for several reasons.
The current bantamweight world champion often does not get enough credit for his striking acumen. Sterling has a good mix of punches, knees, and kicks which he mixes well with quite good timing. He has three main issues on the feet. 1. He enters and exits on straight lines. 2. He will fall for feints. 3. He is a little slow for the division, especially in later rounds. Cejudo (Lil’ Frank Shamrock), in his prime at least, should be able to exploit these.
Cejudo’s Karate stance works well to land inside punches, enter a clinch for inside trips, catch kicks for takedowns, and will be angling in and out in different directions. All of these we observed in his second match against Demetrious Johnson.
‘Funkmaster’ Sterling is a dangerous and powerful fighter when he is able to be to aggressor, his weakness often shows when he is forced on the back foot. Cejudo, at least in his prime, was/is a fighter who pushed the pace.
Sterling absolutely has a path to success, though. His back take ability is paramount. Sakuraba-esque in his ability to jump on the back. If anyone in the UFC, including a historic Olympic gold medalist, finds Sterling on his back, it is a highly dangerous position.
However, let’s now account for the X factors. These being, Sterling will have an impressive size advantage and Cedjudo’s years away. I can only write about what I have seen. These X factors are variables which we do not know how largely it will affect the fight.
Overall, Henry Cejudo via Unanimous decision.
Ben: I will, as usual, be the sole Sterling defender it seems. Cejudo’s return comes with a lot of question marks. A three year layoff is one thing, but coming back at 36 years old, as a fighter who was used to having significant athletic advantages over virtually everyone he’s fought, is another thing. Stylistically, it’s hard for me to predict what Cejudo would try and do here. He’s done a phenomenal job as a coach/running a camp. Being a coach can detract from your own growth, but that’s impossible to predict as well. He’s clearly a student of the game, as they say.
However, we’re forgetting something pretty important I think. Every single fight, Sterling comes out with an effective gameplan, oftentimes showing different looks and approaches, and he follows them religiously. Serra/Longo has shown time and again they will put together broad gameplans that have distinct areas their fighters will push the action to be, and utilize the strengths of their fighters. While there are flaws to the approach, varying from fighter to fighter in how that manifests, it’s a consistently successful approach. There’s only five rounds to work, and Sterling has shown he can take three of them, even if it means some survival tactics for the final two. And that’s something to note, because of some key factors.
Cejudo’s lack of variety on the feet - his improvements from his first DJ loss, to what we’ve seen after is impressive, no doubt. But he’s not particularly varied in his strike selection. Rear roundhouse, right hand 90% of the time to play off it, and he’ll throw a left hook/hook right hook combination in close. His kicks often are thrown naked as well, leading to them getting caught quite consistently. Getting a kick caught by Sterling is an easy way to get your back taken.
Cejudo is a void off the back foot - I would be shocked if Sterling didn’t attempt to push Cejudo on the backfoot immediately. Watching his Moraes fight, Cejudo backed off pressure immediately after eating the first leg kick. Granted, he of course said “fuck it” and became a damage sponge, but that urgency was forced out of him by Moraes trying to kick his body into pieces. Sterling’s not going to damage him that much, and mentally it may take longer for Cejudo to kick in that gear of “fuck it”, just because he won’t necessarily be getting as badly hurt. There’s of course another factor to consider that makes Cejudo pressuring even more dicey.
He poses zero grappling threat - Cejudo’s clinch is excellent, utilizing strikes, frames, underhooks, and trips to off-balance and damage his opponents. That being said, I would be unbelievably shocked if he posed any submission threat to Sterling, barring a club n’ sub, which is always possible regardless of skill disparity on the mat.
So how does this factor in with Sterling? Well, looking at Cejudo’s last few fights, the path to victory for Sterling is clear for me.
Push Cejudo on the back-foot - Aside from being a complete void on the back-foot, it’s also shockingly easy to get Cejudo to back up. Dominick Cruz had Cejudo bounding away every time he pushed forward, in a straight line too. Cejudo didn’t force Moraes on the back-foot really, Moraes just stopped aggressively pressuring. Aside from a takedown feint and attempt, there wasn’t too much Cejudo himself did to get Moraes backing up. Sterling, regardless of jankiness, his very effective striking. His variety, length, and volume have given guys fits as they tried to find their own openings and entries to land shots and get a breather. Sterling will need to be careful with counter punches coming back, as Cejudo hits quite hard, but if Sterling is moving forward, it’s bad for Cejudo.
Grappling and size - Look, I understand Cejudo is a significantly better wrestler than Sterling, I am not arguing that. However, the size disparity is startling, and that does come into play big time in extended grappling sequences. Cejudo is a really good scrambler, but Sterling has built his style around taking advantage of the holes those scrambles will leave. It’s why his back takes are so effective, it’s a counter to the MMA scrambling meta that has developed. If Sterling gets to Cejudo’s back, I am not sure he’s going to be able to do anything more than hold on and survive.
Output - Cejudo isn't the highest output fighter. He is happy to work his way in slowly, attacking in short explosive bursts, before getting back out and repeating the process. With his lack of variety, his entries are heavily reliant on his feints, speed, and power put on the shots. He essentially relies on you respecting him enough to grant him the front foot, and letting him dictate most of the engagements.
This matchup is intriguing due to so many factors, and it could go either way (duh). Sterling’s path to victory is there, pushing back Cejudo consistently, landing his strikes from range and forcing Cejudo to throw his strikes from long range. Sterling can time his entries off the rear kicks Cejudo will throw naked, and threaten those back takes from there. Round winning minutes, fight winning moments will be the game plan. Look for those back takes, but don’t relentlessly pursue them. Cejudo’s style necessitates moments that will leave him open to them. The big leaping movements, powerful strikes, and explosive scrambling will give Sterling opportunities for the back takes. As long as he can keep Cejudo moving back, I think he takes this. I also think we would likely see the size difference play out big time if Sterling gets the back. Do I think he finishes Cejudo? That’s hard to say, I would assume Cejudo’s submission. Sterling by submission.
Muhammad vs Burns
Sriram: Belal Muhammad is a very interesting fighter in theory, in that recovering from being a nailed-on gatekeeper at a division with the matchmaking of 170 is genuinely impressive - since the fight against Geoff Neal over four years ago, Muhammad hasn’t lost (with the caveat of a run-in with welterweight champion Leon Edwards which would’ve likely been a loss but for an unfortunate eye poke). At nearly every step, he’s been the unheralded B-side of the matchup - a retiring great in Maia, a contender needing a bounceback in Thompson, the division’s best action-contender in Luque, and a prospect on the rise in Sean Brady - and he’s come out with the win each time. That said, the workmanlike versatility of his style seems to be bound to run up against a ceiling every time for a reason; even beyond most of his better wins seeming to come against opponents on a marked career downswing, a fairly smart all-rounder is much more actionable against limited specialists than other all-rounders.
This is likely where Gilbert Burns lies - a fighter who does have his fair share of issues, but is probably a cleverer and more dynamic threat anywhere it goes. The one big edge Muhammad does seem to have over Burns is likely his tank; Burns has slowed down before, and his last fight (a whole month ago) had him settle into working more in bursts against Jorge Masvidal. Muhammad does have fights where he pushes a hard 1-2ing pace (Lima and Brady), and a 5-rounder would seem to make that a bigger edge than it would be otherwise. That said, Muhammad being an absolute mark for both the left hook and the leg kick (actually, any kick, given his fights against southpaw double-attackers) in those pressuring performances is clearly sub-optimal against a very functional Hooft striker. It might be a situation where Burns has to hurt Muhammad repeatedly to overcome the volume/tank edge, but there’s also very little indication that he won’t be able to do that - for Muhammad to enforce his advantages and avoid getting kicked a lot at range, he likely has to put himself at risk for counters in a way he probably can’t afford against a big hitter with solid counters. Muhammad did solve the game of Vicente Luque in their rematch, a similar Hooftian with a pared-down left hook and legkick game - but Burns has shown at every turn to be meaningfully craftier than Luque tactically, with no real risk of completely disarming himself with southpaw switches for no actual reason. If Burns can force Muhammad into cautious outfighting, the way he did with Luque, Burns’ sharper kicking game and better ideas to close distance behind the kicks/the jab than Luque should make a big difference.
Add that Burns is a better grappler than essentially anyone he’ll face in MMA (taking away the top control route Muhammad made great use of in that Luque rematch as well), and I don’t see a great reason to overthink this - Muhammad is solid, but Burns seems both better all around and better at being an all-rounder. It isn’t to say Belal can’t win, but to do it, he probably needs to safely put on a pace in a way he hasn’t done before - where Burns has the margins, probably the moments, and a perfectly competitive game on minutes as well. Burns by TKO3.
Javi: Belal Muhammad leaves me with a conundrum as a fighter. I love cheering for him because he’s from my adopted city of Chicago, and he seems like a generally good person overall, but good God his fights are a chore to watch. I will grant that the circumstances surrounding his career have set up a great narrative for him as the Little Welterweight Engine That Could. Hell, if you told me three years ago he’d beat Vicente Luque in their rematch I’d laugh in your face. But he did. Now, once again, he comes up against a test which to most knowledgeable eyes leaves him with no real path to victory. Empirically speaking, there’s no way Gilbert Burns doesn’t nail him with a left hook pretty early on to sit him down. Empirically speaking, there’s no way he takes Burns down or even finds any success at all in the clinch. Empirically speaking, he should get his ass kicked from pillar to post on Saturday. But I think he won’t. Honestly, I don’t see a single realm of MMA in which Muhammad has a real clear-cut advantage over Burns. He’s a fairly good control wrestler for MMA, sure, but he’s not nearly as offensively capable once he’s on the mat as Gilbert is. He’s a half-decent volume striker even if his mechanics leave quite a bit to be desired, but Burns is a much more refined kickboxer and has hands like cinder blocks, not to mention a left hook from hell which has proven time and again to be Muhammad’s Kryptonite. Sure, Belal will likely have the stamina advantage, but even then Burns is no slouch when it comes to cardio and has shown that he can go as long as he needs to when he doesn’t blow his wad in desperation. If Belal wants to win, he has to recognize that his win condition likely involves him getting very badly hurt and losing more than a handful of brain cells. I think he’ll be more than happy to make that sacrifice. Despite all evidence to the contrary, Belal has proven me wrong on more than one occasion, so I’m going with my heart and picking Muhammad by (perhaps contentious) Decision.
Tim: Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns represent two top fivers welterweight battling for a position in a competitive division and should be a banging match. On paper, it is a great fight. Let’s break down a few folds that we can take a look at.
Neither Muhammad or Burns has a ton of great defensive work on the feet. Muhammad does not have a ton of head movement nor an especially active guard. Instead, he has a solid jab which he likes to control the fight with. Similarly, Burns has very little slick defense. Burns is happy to eat punches then try and close the distance.
Burns will throw each shot with 100% power with no concern for what’s coming back. He has thrown various combinations with built in muscle memory, such as his 1-2, dip, left hook. But Brazil’s Burns will abandon these at the first available firefight.
Belal’s volume may get him into trouble. Burns will be looking to create haymaker combo opportunities. If Muhammad chooses to plant his feet and throw, he will find a dangerous set of hands coming back at him.
On the ground, as others have mentioned, there are not a ton of MMA fighters who can compete with Burns there. While Muhammad may find some success in control, it seems unlikely, based on both of their history, even with top position, that he will be able to finish the fight from there. At best, Muhammad will be able to stall for time on the ground. At worst, he may get submitted.
Overall, Burns Rd 2 TKO