Analyzing the Threats Surrounding Henry Cejudo: Flyweight Edition
Photo by Brandon Magnus/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Two-division champion Henry Cejudo hasn’t fought at 125 in over a year, but in the unlikely scenario that he drops back down to flyweight, there are currently two potential challengers waiting at the gate.
Danny: “I knew he was hurt, I caught him with that leg kick right on the chin ...This victory was for the flyweights …”
The narrative Henry Cejudo chose prior to the TJ Dillashaw fight was perfectly representative of “The Messenger” in a nutshell; incredibly self-aggrandizing, not the least bit self-aware, but ultimately hyperviolent, so who gives a fuck. In all seriousness, beating DJ (kind of) and TJ back to back is genuinely amazing, but after bulking up significantly to take out Marlon Moraes at bantamweight, the future of flyweight feels tenuous once again. Claiming that the division had been saved was at least enough to keep flyweight from being completely gutted (more than it already had been), but I’m skeptical that we’re going to be seeing dual defenses from Cejudo. In most of these double-champ scenarios, it feels like the title holders generally just prefer to abandon to lighter belt and keep the heaviest one, likely to prevent excessive weight-cutting.
Sriram: Cejudo’s callouts of fighters like Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo make it even less likely; in general, the flyweight division has been a bit bereft of “star power” (their most popular and accomplished champion was traded for a bust of a can-crusher, after all), and it’s clear that star-power fights are what Cejudo is looking for. It’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve it; at least on paper; his last three wins are as good as it gets, and a good deal better than most champions get before calling for their “money fights”. For my money, he’s a top-5 PFP on those alone. A win over a name like Jose Aldo might not mean a ton with the context, 15 years into his career at a weight class that isn’t his own, but it still likely brings more value to Cejudo’s name than a win over the average 125er or 135er.
That said, 125 isn’t nearly as bereft of talent as it is of star power, and there are two contenders ready to go as soon as Cejudo is ready to drop back down. They’re definitely fights worth seeing and they’re opponents worth Cejudo’s time and concern as a competitor, even if they aren’t the most lucrative options.
Danny: In the event that Cejudo does return to 125, he has a couple of interesting tasks ahead of him. One would be a rematch with all-time great Joseph Benavidez, a scary prospect for the veteran considering Cejudo’s rate of improvement, but a welcome challenge after an excellent first scrap. On the other side, there is perhaps the only flyweight at athletic parity with the Olympian in the form of Deiveson Figueiredo, the most violently capable hair stylist in all of combat sports. Combined with three potentially awesome bantamweight fights, there’s a lot to look forward to in the future of Henry Cejudo.
Joseph Benavidez
Sriram: Perhaps the most underrated all-time great there has ever been, Joseph Benavidez is still going strong despite it looking (for a moment in 2018, at least) that he’d fallen off a bit; his close loss to Sergio Pettis wasn’t particularly encouraging, but he’s come back with three straight wins in vintage Joe-B fashion. In fact, Benavidez’s last win may have been his biggest overall; in his title-eliminator and rematch with (also underrated) Jussier Formiga, Benavidez seemed to have the Brazilian solved, and head-kicked him for the finish in the second.
If Benavidez gets the title shot, though, the allure isn’t his deservedness; in fact, had the Formiga/Benavidez fight gone the other way, there’s no way we’d be talking about more than one likely contender for Cejudo at flyweight. The allure of a title shot for Joe-B comes from his win over Cejudo in late 2016, a tight affair with an early version of Cejudo that was arguably decided by a point-deduction. Cejudo has avenged (in a manner of speaking) one of his losses, and he’ll need to drop back to 125 to avenge the other.
Danny: I’m a bit reticent for Benavidez here, sadly. Regardless of how you scored their first encounter (and all dick-kicks accounted for), it did look like the trajectory of both men was opposing. Benavidez was able to outslick Cejudo in later exchanges, despite getting hurt somewhat badly in the first round. Conversely, Cejudo’s all-out aggression brought him a significantly moment early, but he ultimately got outworked by a craftier, more experienced opponent. In short, the margins felt narrower for Joey.
Cejudo’s inability to cover his entries with feints was mostly the story of the first fight. Henry would leap into range with explosive punches or knees, and Benavidez would eventually find the timing for his counters. Tricks of rhythm, a greater diversity of entries, and body punching meant that Benavidez was able to employ his typical in-out approach against Cejudo, while drawing counters that he was able to evade over time. When Cejudo opted for the takedown, Benavidez showed once again why he is perhaps the single most talented scrambler at flyweight, relentlessly building his base and attacking the head, meaning that Joey was able to eliminate any significant grappling from the bout.
Sriram: Worth noting that the first knockdown was largely the product of Cejudo weaponizing his freakishly large head, but yeah, that's all accurate. Cejudo is never going to be the man to hold down Benavidez; more than any other prospective fight for him, this is one that Cejudo needs an edge on the feet to win. Joe-B is no less talented or less crafty than he used to be, as shown by his last three, but Cejudo's realization of his indestructibility has turned him into a pretty different fighter.
That said, I think I'd still favor Benavidez going into the rematch. Cejudo has become smarter in terms of leveraging his athleticism, and he's even a better boxer than he used to be, but the Moraes win was still a function of Cejudo wading forward and driving a pace without a ton of diversity (right hand leads and the southpaw jab, mostly). Benavidez isn't at all a gassing threat, and over 5 rounds, he'll only get more opportunities to figure Cejudo out down the stretch. A settled-down Cejudo probably doesn't have the tools to avoid getting outvolumed by Benavidez nor the defense to mitigate it, and he doesn't have the tools to reliably put work on Benavidez without Benavidez figuring out answers to his more unrefined aggression as he did the first time. It's certainly winnable for Cejudo, he arguably did the first time, but Benavidez showed enough the first time for me to favor him over a longer fight.
Danny: In general, it didn’t look like Benavidez was clearly the better fighter. Cejudo just fought stupidly, and Joey has tons of experience. This was the first fight where we’ve seen Cejudo fight with a chip on his shoulder, and despite losing the decision, he came out of it looking like a far more capable fighter than the one who lost badly to Demetrious Johnson earlier that same year. Since then, Cejudo has absolutely soared and I can’t help but feel that Benavidez eeked out that victory at exactly the right time. It was the kind of fight in which Benavidez’s greater depth of skill looked to be just enough to compensate for the athletic disparity. I’m...not sure I can pick that to be the winning formula again in a rematch. Over time, Cejudo has become a more willing puncher and he’s generally become a lot better at listening to his corner (i.e. settling down) between rounds. Enough time has passed that I have to give Cejudo the edge in terms of youth, durability, and athleticism.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Danny: Fig is a physical force, and he’s built his game on hitting his opponents to the body really, really hard. Largely a counterpuncher, Fig is a somewhat mercurial fighter; a natural pugilist with a knack for drawing opponents onto massive counters who doesn’t mind being in the line of fire to find his opening. He feints and probes, but he’s not as active with it as someone like Holloway. He doesn’t fight at a tremendously high pace, and it’s notable that he slowed down against Alexandre Pantoja in the third round of their fight, but he’s incredibly powerful and strong. Opponents don’t like being hit by Figueiredo, so he generally controls the pace of fights with a couple of weapons and offense in every phase.
Deiveson isn’t a particularly scientific fighter, but he’s an extremely lethal and willing one. Fig will utilize upper-body movement to slide into the pocket and crack his opponents before they realize what’s happening. Defensively, he can be a bit lax, but he’s mobile in the pocket and his bladed stance + long guard allows for a more elusive target from range. He’s a little less process-driven than he needs to be and his occasional dip in activity can hurt him on the scorecards, but he’s a brilliant finisher, so it rarely matters. He’s shown an outstanding chin, freakishly long arms, power in both hands, and a voracious sprint grappling game.
Sriram: Figueiredo is the sort of fighter that everyone wants to be a contender, but seems almost a bit too violent to be one; it isn’t that he ever looked bad (maybe except the Jarred Brooks fight, but he still clearly won), but the “swing huge and catch bodies” archetype that Figueiredo embodies has never been the type to thrive at a strong division’s upper echelon. Apart from a loss to Jussier Formiga (perhaps the best defensive operator at 125), Figueiredo has proven those claims wrong with the rare power-punching to the body and some underrated craft of his own, and he sits second-in-line for the title shot. He’s probably first-in-line in terms of excitement value, with respect to Benavidez; in fact, even across divisions, it’s hard to think of a fighter markedly more fun than “Deus da Guerra”.
Danny: I have to agree. A fight between Cejudo and Figueiredo would likely be weird and violent, which is about as much as you can hope for at flyweight. I’m still not convinced by Fig’s defensive wrestling, unfortunately. He isn’t an easy fighter to physically overpower, but expert timing from technicians like Formiga have been enough to stifle Figueiredo at range. In particular, Formiga expertly initiated the clinch to diffuse Fig’s combinations and then disengaged the clinch before Fig could leverage his strength. Counterpunch, intercept, break, takedown.
I don’t know if Cejudo is disciplined or tactical enough to replicate this exact gameplan, but he possesses a stout wrestling advantage and he’s probably the only flyweight on the roster who won’t be deterred by Fig’s freakish gifts. Often times, instead of defending the single leg or digging for underhooks to stifle a takedown, Deiveson will just immediately jump on a guillotine or concede to slashing elbows from his back. This can work (as Tim Elliott can attest), but there have been times in Fig’s career when more fundamentally sound takedown defense would’ve gone a long way. Regardless, a potential fight against Cejudo would be an explosive war for as long as it lasts, so whatever happens, it should be great fun.
Sriram: I honestly don't trust Cejudo's top game enough as a top-player to deal with a massive and frighteningly-athletic Figueiredo; while he has a tendency to give takedowns up and just athlete up, I don't think it's unlikely that it works. A game built around athleticism isn't necessarily universally-applicable, but when he was even able to just shove an A+ top player in Formiga off him, Cejudo's half-guard shoulder-pressure doesn't seem too dangerous. Cejudo doesn't have the craft of Formiga in entries, either; where Jussier could block or move his head away from Deiveson's bombs right into underhooks, Cejudo's more likely to just...get hit.
My worry with Figueiredo comes from the Pantoja fight, as impressive and as entertaining as it was. Pantoja proved to have a chin of adamantium in that fight, but Cejudo's chin is no less sturdy, and Figueiredo slowed badly in round 3. Figueiredo isn't built to pace himself, and against a tank like Cejudo, he'd either have to (improbably) bang him out early or survive the championship rounds against a champion who knows when to turn the urgency up. If Cejudo didn't prove mostly immune to attrition against Moraes, Figueiredo's body-punching might alleviate that concern a bit, but it's hard to see Figueiredo winning over the distance without Cejudo fading badly. Hard not to root for him, though, and at least for as long as his cardio's there, "Deus da Guerra" running Cejudo into hammers will be a phenomenal watch.
There is a significant possibility that Henry Cejudo never returns to 125, and Benavidez vs. Figueiredo becomes a reality. Time will tell, but for now, we are assuming Cejudo is still assuming championship over both divisions.