Analyzing the Threats Surrounding Henry Cejudo: Bantamweight Edition
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There are a total of five legitimate title threats across flyweight and bantamweight right now that would be willing to step up and face Cejudo on a moment’s notice. Sriram and Danny discuss Cejudo as a technical fighter, where he’s made legitimate strides in his game, and where some of these opponents could challenge him. This edition is for the three who would lay claim to his title at bantamweight.
Danny: It’s taken a bit longer than it should have, but I’m finally coming around to the idea of Henry Cejudo as a P4P lock. It helps when you ignore literally everything he has to say, but in the cage, he is truly electrifying to watch. Maybe he didn’t deserve the decision against Demetrious Johnson, but he also prevented one of the sport’s smartest fighters from building on him for five rounds. Wiping out TJ Dillashaw in under a minute is impressive in its own right, but stomping out one of the sport’s most lethal finishers inside of three rounds after an incredibly rocky start? Truly epic. I’m not exactly sure where Cejudo goes from here since he hasn’t fought at flyweight in over a year, but whatever he ends up doing, sign me up for a front row seat.
Sriram: I'm a bit more cautious about Cejudo as a P4P top guy, even though I probably shouldn't be. After all, the list is arguably mostly fighters who deserve to be there less than Cejudo does, even considering his skillset being dependent on his absurd athletic gifts; for example, given the relative speed and durability and strength of Cejudo, I wouldn't trust someone like Jon Jones to do a monster like Marlon Moraes the way Cejudo did. He's genuinely improved a lot, from a near-pure wrestler (who wasn't awesome at wrestling in MMA, despite that Olympic gold) to a shrewd boxer who can stand with the best.
On the other hand, of Cejudo's three P4P-level wins, two feel...a bit odd, in a way that I'm trying hard to avoid calling a "fluke". Demetrious Johnson in his prime is about as strong a win as anyone could have, and Cejudo's performance in the rematch was night-and-day compared to his performance in the first one, but there's next to no argument for Cejudo legitimately winning that fight by the judging criteria. Cejudo smoked TJ Dillashaw in approximately thirty seconds, at the apex of his bantamweight reign, but Dillashaw was also making his debut at a weight-class where he looked concerningly gaunt on the scales. The Moraes win was a showing of both skill and heart like no one else, but also one of Moraes imploding in a way that you really don't see at the highest level. Cejudo's unquestionably proven himself, he's on the road to a convincing claim as an all-time great (especially considering decisive wins over Jussier Formiga and Sergio Pettis as well), but there are doubts that I simply can't shake yet.
Athleticism Aside
Danny: Exactly how good is Henry Cejudo? Analysts (including us) are struggling to pin it down. The nebulous term “athleticism” has become inextricably tied to discussions about Cejudo’s toolbox, and for good reason. In recent outings, Cejudo seems to have configured more efficient ways to leverage his athletic base versus more formally skilled opponents. His performance against Marlon Moraes was one of the most athletically domineering performances in MMA history. For a round and a half, Cejudo fought Moraes from a mile away, eating what have previously been fight-ending leg kicks before storming into the clinch and bombing on him until Moraes was utterly broken. Impressive, yet confounding.
I discussed this a bit in my analysis of that fight, but I’ll reiterate it here: I’m not sure if Cejudo is best served by his long karate-style striking arsenal. Against Wilson Reis, Cejudo was able to feint and draw the plodding opponent into inside-angle counters, hand traps, and intercepting knees, but this hasn’t exactly been working against...functional strikers. Sergio Pettis stepped laterally to defuse Cejudo’s round kicks, and drew responses from the Olympian before countering. Demetrious Johnson wasn’t able to build on any of his offense, but he largely just hung out at range and kicked his legs a lot. Nearly every time Moraes sat down on a punching flurry, he landed, and he even counterkicked Cejudo’s entries quite nicely once or twice.
Sriram: One observation made a couple times is that Cejudo is somewhat in the Daniel Cormier mold (or, more pithily, that Cormier is pseudo-Cejudo), and while it's reductive, there's some truth there. If Cejudo has looked less effective than prime Cormier has, it can be attributed mostly to him facing better and smarter strikers. Beyond the "strong wrestling credentials" similarity, Cejudo is working with the same sort of athletic margin that Cormier has always leaned heavily on. When it comes down to it, even if someone like Sergio Pettis can outgame him in exchanges, there's usually a significant athletic edge that Cejudo can choose to press. He's terrifically strong, he's very quick (especially for 135, as even the frighteningly swift Marlon Moraes found), he can punch for his weight-class, he can drive an inhuman pace when he wants to, and he's as durable as anyone in MMA has ever been.
Even from that jumping-off point, the Cormier analogy has some (albeit limited) utility; at a stronger weight-class, Cejudo has to be better than Cormier to reach the heights he has reached, but it isn't hard to see a little bit of DC in the Cejudo who stormed into Moraes' face to push the pace and broke him with volume and an aggressive clinch. For his part, Cejudo has a much better grasp of his own game than Cormier does; he's a sounder pressurer than Cormier who keeps his stance and kicks actively to push his opponent into the fence, and he's a far better technical-boxer. The issues with poor defense papered over by athleticism are still there, though.
Danny: Subtracting all athleticism from the equation, Cejudo is a functional fighter in every phase of MMA, but he distinctly lacks depth. Some of his smoothest clinch work came from intercepting his opponents in the middle of their combinations and either threatening with an inside trip or slamming knees into an opponent’s midsection. Similar to Yoel Romero, Cejudo’s ability to blend punching blitzes with collar tie conversions is strong, particularly if his opponents resemble a rough approximation of Rich Franklin in the clinch. If an opponent grabs double collar ties on Cejudo, he’ll either grab double underhooks and try for a takedown or occasionally slam some Rick Story-esque body shots to his opponent’s midsection.
This is all well and good, but Cejudo can still be somewhat haphazard in lock-ups. Craftier clinch fighters such a Formiga and DJ defaulted to the underhook + wrist control, as well as netting superior head position underneath Cejudo’s chin. They would be better lined up inside to mash knees into Cejudo’s stomach, and they’d exit the clinch more safely on breaks. Both fighters would continually slide their free hand underneath and inside of Cejudo’s free hand onto the bicep. Small punches upside the head, then back to bicep control.
All this is to say, Petr Yan is a notably interesting challenge here.
No Mercy
Sriram: Even from his debut, Yan seemed like a threat to the top of the division, and doubly so against an elite fighter like Cejudo; with his ferocious pace and his voracious offense, Yan never seemed like one to be beaten by someone who could just leverage an athletic edge. His last fight wasn't flawless from him, but Jimmie Rivera is a fundamentally different challenge to Henry Cejudo; where the former could play a thoughtful and defensive outside game, the latter is a lot more likely to just smash himself against "No Mercy" in the center, jousting for the front foot.
Is it particularly likely that Cejudo can convince Yan to back down? Not in my estimation, but the opposite also seems a bit tough to see. Where Cejudo's pressure is facilitated by inhuman durability, Yan's is more a function of awareness in the pocket; like Justin Gaethje, the blows he takes are more a function of his style taking him into harm's way than a lack of strong defense. He's a terrific pressurer, but he's first and foremost a genuinely fascinating boxer to watch.
Danny: In many ways, Petr Yan is a deeper, polished version of Cejudo’s showcase against Moraes. Specifically, he wants to pinch his opponents between the fence and the clinch, where they’re either forced to fight a high-paced outside striking battle with a relentless and educated opponent or get bullied inside. Yan’s clinch in particular is nasty, where he will continually grab for wrist and postural control before yanking down and attacking in the transitions. He thinks two or three layers deep into clinch exchanges, where Cejudo mostly just looks for the immediate offense.
In the pocket, Yan is a potential landmine for Cejudo. His entries allow him to time an opponent’s lateral movement and make accurate, powerful reads all stemming from an incredibly deep offensive skillset. Watching him figure out Jimmie Rivera in several significant moments was gratifying, particularly the outside angle high kick that Yan ran Rivera into the cut off his exit along the fence. These aren’t random Jackson/Wink look-see-do attacks. When he gets rolling, Petr Yan is exceptional at sequencing offense instead of simply sustaining it.
Sriram: Another good example of that sort of thing was how he got the knockdown in round 1 of the Rivera fight; Rivera was marvelous defensively, but Yan read him dropping back off the right overhand to shift into a nice left overhand. Even at the end of round 2, Yan found moments to work around Rivera's defense, lining up uppercuts with collar ties as Rivera was backed to the fence. Yan seems like the sort of fighter who's absurdly difficult to mount a comeback against; both in terms of being absolutely grueling to fight in an attritive sense and making sharp tactical reads as the fight goes on. I'd be very surprised if the fight played out the way Moraes/Cejudo did (of Cejudo "weathering a storm" for a round and a half). It's likely more an unending barrage of ever-smarter attacks, and Yan's freshness through 3 rounds might suggest that he's even better through 5.
Cejudo's aforementioned lack of depth probably gets him into trouble in this fight, against an opponent who probably won't wilt violently as Marlon Moraes did. Even Cejudo's comeback wasn't built on some layered read of Moraes' offense; he simply prioritized shocking Moraes with his speed at every juncture. He shortened his stance to get inside and stay there, and he essentially spammed straight-right hands (both from orthodox and as a southpaw jab) until an already-brittle Moraes broke under the pressure. A more-conditioned and attritive opponent might've found a way to deal with that approach more suitably, even if Cejudo is probably still the more athletic party in the fight. And the fight being competitive in the clinch (if not an area of clear advantage for Yan) means that it won't serve as the safety net it did for Cejudo at 238.
Danny: This potential fight’s outcome would likely hinge on who gets to pressure. Yan seems pathologically unflappable when it comes to pressuring, whereas Cejudo is less immediately committed to backing his opponents up to the fence. In terms of pure footwork, Yan is the more dangerous of the two with expertly crafted cage-cutting footwork; Switching stances & shifts to create angles on trapped opponents and taking small steps forward with his lead foot while reangling with his rear foot to track an opponent down without ever taking more than two steps back. Cejudo, on the other hand, enforces mostly a straight line attack that Moraes and Dillashaw simply couldn’t get out of the way against.
So, how does Yan’s pressuring, angular attack stack up against Cejudo’s blindingly fast linear attack? Both fighters have proven to be quite durable and extraordinarily high-paced, so unless one of them gets wiped out early, I have to imagine that Yan’s more layered technical toolbox will reap benefits in the later rounds. More volleys of body work, more time to figure out exactly which punches he needs to be avoiding or counter, and greater opportunity for massive reads. In terms of wrestling, Yan remains one of the division’s most agile scramblers and Cejudo’s top control is sorely lacking (barring a brutal flurry against completely incapacitated Marlon Moraes).
The Sandman
Danny: Sandhagen has been a lovely surprise at bantamweight, blending TJ Dillashawian movement with a surprisingly nasty arsenal of attritive offense (liver shots, leg kicks) with a few finishing weapons thrown in for good measure. As a lateral mover, Sandhagen is surprisingly adept, both at cutting angles on the outside and the occasional sankaku-tobi to end up behind plodding opponents. Only a year older than Petr Yan, Sandhagen performs with a brimming confidence that hardened veterans like Assuncao and Lineker haven’t been able to dissuade. He possesses some of TJ’s technical flaws (more ‘craft’ than ‘depth’ particularly on defense) but he keeps such a torrid pace that it hasn’t reared its head yet.
Sriram: Sandhagen was interesting from his debut, especially as the rare prospect who appreciated bodywork from the beginning (as seen by his finish of Austin Arnett, noted body-shot defender), but he showed just enough vulnerability on the way up that he seemed like less of a "definitely champ-level" prospect than Yan was. Where Petr’s biggest pre-rankings obstacle was Jin Soo Son simply being unkillable, Sandhagen had a banger with (the talented but underacheiving) Iuri Alcantara that he survived by the grace of one hypermobile elbow to come back and win. To some level, the fight against John Lineker supported the doubters; Lineker's own body work and potency on the inside gave Sandhagen real issues, and while Sandhagen came away with a decision for his work at range (and he did a much better job not getting absolutely swarmed the way someone like Rob Font was), he probably didn't deserve it.
However, Sandhagen's most recent showing most certainly established him as an elite-level fighter, and framed Lineker more as an annoying matchup than as a hard ceiling. At 135, he's the only man to officially beat the crafty Raphael Assuncao on his first try. Sandhagen's busy and deceptive game on the feet seems custom-built to fluster counterstrikers (which is one way the previously-made Dillashaw comparison works perfectly, and also why he was so tough for a defined counterpuncher in Assuncao to deal with), and that might not be too applicable against Cejudo, but a real volume threat who liberally hits the body is a unique challenge for "The Messenger".
Danny: The closest analogue for Cejudo here is John Lineker, who wasn’t able to employ his usual pressuring approach against Sandhagen. Cory pushed Lineker back with the jab and kept a constant array of feints and fakes in front of the Brazilian, making the brawler swing at air for much of the bout. On the outside, Sandhagen showed off some keen ring-craft, drawing Lineker into rushing forward before exit out the side. Far from a defensive mastermind, Cory nonetheless picked up on the predictable rhythm of Lineker’s winging hook combinations and did his best to catch the incoming punches. As such, he rarely got hit by more than one punch at a time. Sandhagen just stayed on Lineker and refused to be intimidated by one of the most intimidating fighters in the division. This says good things about his prospects against Cejudo.
Cejudo’s wrestling is a fairly large question mark for Sandhagen here, as Sandhagen have been taken down by far lesser wrestlers. Cory is generally content simply playing guard and attacking with submissions off his back, but this almost got him finished by Iuri Alcantara. Cory’s all-violence-everywhere game is incredibly entertaining, but I have to wonder if a deeper, more controlling fighter is just waiting to pick it apart.
Sriram: I'm not terribly worried about the wrestling here because Sandhagen's scrambling in his last fight was simply sensational. Assuncao (a phenomenal grappler) is likely a more-equipped top player than Cejudo, whose top game is fairly inert given the Johnson rematch, and Assuncao just couldn't lock down a real position of control whatsoever. Cory's upcoming fight with Frankie Edgar might shed some more light here, but even Edgar is historically a more vicious and fluid top-player than Cejudo has been. The Condit approach to takedowns isn't necessarily the most encouraging, but I don't really see it being an issue specifically against Cejudo.
My worry with Sandhagen against Cejudo is the aforementioned comparison of Cejudo to Lineker; Cejudo isn't as consistent a body-puncher, but he might be even more committed to pushing into Sandhagen's range and combination-punching than Lineker was (at that stage of his career). Sandhagen isn't the best defensively deep into exchanges (his defense is largely the strength of his footwork and his offensive depth inhibiting counters), and I wouldn't be too surprised if Cejudo banked on his insane durability against Sandhagen's probably-not-as-insane durability to force a shootout in-close. That isn't to say Sandhagen is fragile, quite the opposite; he pushed through punishment from Alcantara and Lineker, and didn't let the powerful counters of Assuncao slow him down, but Cejudo's brand of resilience is truly freakish. On the other end, though, Sandhagen's one of the few who can truly be trusted to put in attrition work on Cejudo whenever he can, and the frequency and craft of Sandhagen's bodypunching could pay dividends against the 238 iteration of Cejudo who drove a terrific pace to win.
Danny: I genuinely wonder how much of Cejudo’s brutal approach (appropriately coined “Gold Medal Mode”) versus Moraes will receive play against less fragile bantamweights. As our friend Schwan Humes pointed out in the lead up to Cejudo/Moraes, there is a mental and physical kind of fight that Marlon simply can’t hang in, but not every bantamweight is as breakable. Barreling forward against Sandhagen might actually be in Cejudo’s best interests, as Cory can be pushed back in a straight line against combination punchers before angling out along the fence, but can he do that for 25 minutes or until Cory crumbles? Sitting in midrange with Cory might mean that Cejudo is just left trying to outpoint a craftier, higher paced opponent with more offensive trickery. Assuming Sandhagen is willing to take an early beating to figure out exactly what Cejudo will be threatening with, there is a solid chance he could take that fight over late. If nothing else, Cejudo/Sandhagen should be a tremendous fight of pace.
Funkmaster
Danny: This is the matchup I’m the least interested in out of the lot. There’s no doubt Aljamain has improved out of sight since his UFC debut, and on paper, he probably possesses the strongest argument for a title shot at 135. However, from a sheer stylistic point of view, Cejudo seems like a rough night for “The Funkmaster”. Cejudo’s elite wrestling pedigree likely means that both the clinch and the mat (usual safety zones for Sterling) won’t be available, and there isn’t much preventing Cejudo’s straight-line assault through Sterling’s volume.
Sriram: Aljamain Sterling came into the UFC meant to be the bantamweight coming of Jon Jones, and at this most mature point of his career, he's turned into something...better than Jon Jones. Granted, that doesn't necessarily have the viability at 135 that people might expect it to, but Sterling has gone through his growing pains (losses to Assuncao and Moraes and bafflingly Caraway) to fill in the holes in the broad Jones archetype. He's learned to box enough to keep guys off him, and while his defensive reactions aren't amazing, he isn't downright easy to hit. This is paired with one of the more creative and effective top games in MMA, which leaves him functional (at least) at every range. Someone like Pedro Munhoz wouldn't be remotely beatable for the Sterling of old, which speaks to the leaps he's made.
Danny: Sterling leverages his physiological frame is its fullest effect. Similar to Jon Jones (there it is again), Sterling throws volume from a significant distance away in the form of naked kicks, long punches, and the occasional step-in elbow to score points. None of this is particularly powerful from a singular offensive perspective, but it peppers the opponent and it keeps them busy. When an opponent doesn’t step in past Aljo’s outer layer of volume, Sterling attempts to grab the clinch and either work a variety of body-lock takedowns or trips to play from top position. Credit to him, Ajamain is one of the most fluid transitional grapplers in the division, with arm-traps and two-on-one wrist control allowing for effective GnP from more traditional wrestling positions like the ride and the seatbelt. Sterling’s game is a weird one, but it works.
The problem is that Sterling still feels so vulnerable. His volume from range is not generated from any kind of deep toolbox, he just throws it to land and keep an opponent off him. If an opponent hangs in the pocket with Sterling and just counterpunches him, his reactions under pressure are concerning as he doesn’t react well to being hit and he generally just turns and skirts out of the way. Ajamain isn’t that quick on his feet, and his defensive arsenal is elementary, as he resorts to overextended rolls instead of tighter slips. His body and legs are ripe for the picking against opponents who commit. Even in Sterling’s best performances (Rivera, Munhoz), he just...looks like himself, for better or worse, against opponents who cannot seem to adapt.
Sriram: Yep, the boxing for Sterling feels a bit tacked-on, although that's better than not having it at all. To invoke the Jones comparison again, Sterling is a similar sort of "all the way out, or all the way in" fighter; he's at his best in-contact with his opponent (whether working to take them down or actively scrambling with them), he's comfortable on the outside flustering them with his kicks, and his pocket game is just something to keep his opponent in one of those other two boxes. He's developed a nice counter right-hook and kept Munhoz at bay with a jab, and avoided getting pressured with decent direction changes on the outside, but the difference between Munhoz and Cejudo is massive in terms of closing speed (Munhoz is crafty and potent, but one of the more plodding 135ers, where Cejudo is literally the opposite). Sterling's striking defense is largely just ducking out, which worked against Munhoz and might work against Cejudo, but isn't a sign of Sterling being able to comfortably operate in the environment that Cejudo created for Moraes.
So there are real pluses and minuses for Sterling in this matchup. On the one hand, he can fight long and (at least at a surface-level) not get pressured at will, and he's very unlikely to be the man wrestled into submission by Cejudo. He's a good athlete and a terrific mat-wrestler, to the point where he almost landed a full-nelson on another great wrestler at 135 in Cody Stamann. On the other hand, if Cejudo can implement the game he did against Moraes, Sterling is more likely than Yan or Sandhagen (or even Moraes) to be caught bare and destroyed.
Danny: If there were ever a time for Cejudo’s cheat codes to be employed, it’s now. Aljo isn’t much of an attritional striker and his mechanics don’t allow for any kind of stopping power. In the moments that Munhoz was able to trap Sterling along the fence, Aljo’s responses to pressure were concerning since he doesn’t possess Cory’s cage-craft or Yan’s defensive arsenal. A straight-line attack from Cejudo who simply shrugs off anything coming back is probably nightmarish for Aljo. If Cejudo consents to a midrange kickboxing match like he did versus Moraes for the first half of their bout, he might get outpointed, but the moment he decides to step forward and bomb on Sterling, it’s likely over.
I respect Sterling a lot. I have a soft spot for fighters who struggle in their early careers and do their damnedest to improve every time out, and that description is Aljo to a T. Cejudo just feels like the wrong fight for him.
No fight has been confirmed for Henry Cejudo yet at either flyweight or bantamweight. Whichever fight is next on the horizon, Cejudo will have a lot of eyes on him, because any and all of these matchups will likely be terrific.