Weili Zhang vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk: Championing the Challenger
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“It’s easier to become the champ, than stay the champ.”
So goes an increasingly well-worn MMA axiom. It’s easy to see why it resonates. As a divisional prospect, mostly, the person watching you is your next opponent.
As the champ, you have everyone watching you. The chances of someone figuring out the right combination of tactics and strategy goes up exponentially with each defense.
But it also means that as champion, you have in theory been tested in all the relevant ways it takes to actually become champion, and the question of competence is posed of the challenger.
At UFC 248, the co-main event- featuring Chinese strawweight queen Zhang Weili, vs long-time terror of the weight, the Polish agitator Joanna Jedrzejczyk - offers a reversal of this dynamic.
Joanna Jędrzejczyk
Of course, Jedrzejczyk was the champ for a while- two years and five fights- so we know her game fairly well by now.
A mean and prolific striker, she has excellent footwork, excellent takedown defence and good defensive grappling, a big frame for the division, which she uses extremely well in the clinch, a superb jab, buzzsaw combinations, chaining kicks to punches and punches to kicks…
The list goes on. The point is, she is comprehensively battle-tested, and we know how she’ll react given most imaginable situations in a fistfight. We also know her flaws, and how those can be exploited.
The women’s strawweight division is by far the UFC’s strongest female bracket, and Joanna has faced all of the premier talents in it.
The best grapplers, wrestlers, strikers (who aren’t her - she is at worst the second highest-level striker in the division), pressure fighters, counter strikers.
She has failed the test against only one woman at 115lb, and even against Rose Namajunas, in their second fight, she gave the champ absolute hell before dropping a decision.
Weili Zhang
Zhang Weili, the reigning champ, and in theory the best operator in the division… has not.
It’s clear she has talent, but it’s a bizarre situation to have a champion who is, at an elite level, almost unknown.
She comes into the fight on a twenty-fight win streak, but with the Chinese regional scene being something of an unknown quantity, it’s hard to read into the value of that.
Zhang’s four fights in the UFC offer some clues. However, as a rise to the title goes, it has not been a bona fide murderer’s row - more like a tax-fraud avenue.
Three of Zhang’s UFC opponents were somewhat overmatched physically. She is big for the division- she has a back that Romero would be proud of - and her aggression has often carried the day.
She likes to begin exchanges with kicks from range. An inside low and a side-kick; that sets range and makes sure she has the first say in contact.
Then Weili likes to get close and physical, throwing big punches while blitzing with her chin in the air, or crashing into a clinch and trying to wrestle her opponents to the mat..
Against Jessica Aguilar, she had the opportunity to throw one or two kicks, before Aguilar herself initiated a clinch; with the advantage of some bizarrely tall positioning from Aguilar, Zhang managed to trip Jessica, and dominate in a grappling exchange from the top which ended in an armbar.
Against Tecia Torres, Torres was far more content to sit on the outside. This allowed Zhang to pepper her with kicks of all sorts, while occasionally initiating a punching exchange.
However, Torres was able to mitigate a lot of Zhang’s wilder kicks simply by keeping mobile, even catching a particularly wild spinning back-kick.
Surprisingly, the striking portions of the match were surprisingly even given the size and speed disparity. Torres was outlanded, but not so much for it to be termed a domination, and managed to mark up Zhang’s face to boot.
More surprisingly, when Zhang managed to take Torres down, which was not often, she was not able to control her comprehensively until the end of the bout.
Against Jessica Andrade and her lamentable title defence, she faced an opponent who had an entirely undeserved confidence in her chin, and a void where a clinch repertoire should be. This meant that when Andrade marched into Weili’s arms and ate a beastly right hook, she wobbled forwards into a clinch that Zhang feasted on. A million elbows and marching knees later, and one of the UFC’s most rudimentary champions was no more.
The Matchup
Zhang’s style of overpowering opponents, when broken down, suggests problems she might face come Saturday, though.
The above three ladies are not even close to representative of the technical elite in the division. Torres comes closest, and it’s notable that Zhang struggled with her the most.
Since Joanna’s title win in 2015, she has faced the likes of Claudia Gadelha, Andrade when she was still a physical threat, Rose Namajunas and Valentina Schevchenko.
The latter two and Joanna herself make up the three best female fighters in UFC history, and Zhang hasn’t been remotely close to any of them until now.
So, we know Zhang has an outside kicking game; we also know it’s not particularly well-connected to the rest of her repertoire. Joanna counters kicks extremely well, and is perfectly adept at chaining strikes off her own kicks.
We know Zhang likes to be the aggressor. We also know that not only is Joanna good off the back foot, she prefers opponents to close range for her. Her own bout against Andrade was a masterclass in defensive manoeuvring, keeping a powerful, aggressive and somewhat unsubtle opponent at bay.
We know that Zhang leaves her chin unprotected when attacking; she has been tagged by Danielle Taylor, Tecia Torres and Andrade when swinging wild hooks. We also know that Jedrzejczyk is an extremely diligent and accurate counter-striker.
We know that Zhang’s preferred method of takedown is from the clinch. We definitely know that Jedzrejczyk is one of the UFC’s premiere clinch fighters; her framing, positioning, hand-fighting, elbows and general pathological viciousness make the clinch a very undesirable place to be. Not to mention her takedown defence is as robust as it gets, too.
Some more things we don’t know about Zhang; how does her chin or endurance hold against constant, accurate attrition?
How does her composure hold against diligent defensive footwork, and the realisation that her strength may be of little use in the clinch?
Will she have a method of winning exchanges if her speed is no longer the advantage it has been in the past?
How does she adjust against an opponent who has tools to deal with her primary weapons?
These are questions usually asked of the challenger, not an untested champ. This Saturday makes for an exam sitting of the highest stakes.