USA Wrestling Olympic Trials Preview: Greco-Roman
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After a year delay, the US Olympic Trials for wrestling will be held April 2-3. Note that due to IOC restrictions on how many wrestlers can compete in Tokyo, countries must qualify for the Games at each weight class through certain international tournaments. At 60, 67, 87, and 97 kg, the US is already qualified, and the wrestler who earned that spot for the country has been given a bye to the finals. At 77 and 130 kg, the winner of the Trials will have to finish in the top two at the global “Last Chance” qualifier to become an Olympian.
The US is not as strong internationally in this style compared to freestyle, but there are definitely some medal contenders. Moreover, some of the weights that lack top-end star power are extremely balanced, and the battle to make the team will be fierce. Another thing to keep in mind is that a large number of these athletes are members of the US military as part of the World-Class Athlete Program and were subject to very strict lockdown rules until recently. As a result, most have not competed since before the pandemic, and their training throughout 2020 was limited. I think most of them will be able to overcome that, but it’s worth bearing in mind. Here are my thoughts and picks:
60 kg
Ildar Hafizov is sitting in the finals after winning the 2020 Pan-Am Olympic Qualifier, the last international tournament before worldwide shutdowns last year. Hafizov is no stranger to this stage: he was a 2008 Olympian for Uzbekistan, and made the finals of the 2016 Trials but lost two matches to one to Jesse Thielke. Battling for the right to challenge him in a best-of-three final series is a stronger group that includes multiple world team members and age-level world medalists.
Ryan Mango is probably at the top of that group. He had a lot of success at the non-Olympic weight of 63 kg, and he can absolutely launch guys [clip or link]. Fellow non-Olympic weight world team member Max Nowy (up from 55 kg) will also be here, and his two-on-one offense can be fun to watch. He’ll struggle with size against some opponents, but for others he’s a major stumbling block.
Dalton Roberts made the world team at this weight in 2018 and has several age-level teams to his name as well. He’s been quiet the last couple years, but he has elite wins and is always lurking. Same goes for guys like Leslie Fuenffinger and Sam Jones, who have never made world teams but been close in the past. Junior world bronze Taylor Lamont hasn’t completely punched through at the senior level yet, but he does have wins over some of the top contenders and looks to be healthier now than he has been in the past couple years. Randon Miranda will also be looking to really announce himself on the senior level after a ton of age-level success. The wild card could be Travis Rice, who looked good at the Last Chance Qualifier last week.
Due to his spot in the best of three, Hafizov is probably the front-runner here. Apart from the built-in advantage of avoiding the meat grinder of the Friday challenge tournament, he also proved himself with his performance in 2019 to make the world team against a lot of the same guys he’ll be wrestling here. His toughest challenger is probably Mango, who has been strong up at 63. He injury defaulted out of 2019 senior nationals, meaning we didn’t get to see him against most of this field, but his ability speaks for itself. They haven’t hit in competition since 2016, but they’re both members of the Army WCAP and have probably wrestled each other quite a bit in training. It’s basically a toss-up, but I’ll go with Hafizov, if nothing else because he’s not at risk of being upset before the finals. For the third national team spot, I’ll go with Fuenffinger, who beat both Roberts and Jones in his last outing at 2019 Senior Nationals.
67 kg
In a strange twist of fate, it will be Alex Sancho who sits in the finals at this weight. 2012 Olympian Ellis Coleman was the world teamer at this weight in 2019, while Sancho was further down the ladder while competing at the non-Olympic weight of 72 kg. He cut down to 67 and really turned it up for Olympic qualifying, though, winning 2019 Senior Nationals. This win meant that when Coleman suffered an injury and was unable to compete at the Pan-Am qualifier, Sancho was next man up, and he was able to get the job done for Team USA and punch his ticket to the final series.
Coleman, nicknamed “The Flying Squirrel” for the move he made famous back in 2012, is the top seed in the challenge tournament for the right to face Sancho. Ray Bunker, world team member at 72 in 2019, is next in line. Jamel Johnson and his brother Xavier Johnson, thankfully on opposite sides of the bracket, both can put up big points and have been in some of the most exciting matches of the last few years. Calvin Germinaro had a breakout performance at 2019 Senior Nationals, and he can go with just about all of these guys. Benji Peak was a borderline world team trials qualifier for a couple years but really broke out in 2020, winning Senior Nationals in dominant fashion both on his feet and from par terre. Similarly, Lenny Merkin had put up fairly middling results before winning last weekend’s Last Chance Qualifier featuring a lot of scoring from double overhooks and a win over Peak in the final. Also worth mentioning are Peyton Omania, who terrorized NCAA wrestling this year with his headlock, and Alston Nutter, a 2019 junior world bronze medalist.
One of the biggest unknowns to me is Bunker; he didn’t start wrestling Greco until after he joined the Marines and is on the steepest upward trajectory. His style can be frustrating to watch, but he’s had impressive results and should benefit from the move down in weight. Coleman, though, is probably too good, especially from par terre. I like him to make the final series against Sancho and then win a close series to become a two-time Olympian. For third place, you might as well put all the names in a hat, but I’ll go with Jamel Johnson.
77 kg
At arguably the deepest weight at the Trials across all three disciplines, no one is sitting in the finals. That means the winner will have to place at the final global qualifier in May, but it also means the spot is wide open for any of these guys. The top seed is Jake Fisher, who came out of retirement in 2019 and picked up even better than he left off. RaVaughn Perkins won the spot in 2016 down at 66 kg but failed to qualify the spot in the Olympics; after a few years at 72 kg, he’s come up and is surely looking to right that wrong. The rep in 2019 was Pat Smith, who won a hard fought series over Kamal Bey. He slipped to the 3 seed after a loss overseas to Perkins, but has shown he can pull out tough matches when he needs to. Then there’s two-time Olympian Ben Provisor, who made the 2012 and 2016 Games up at 85 kg. After losing out to Joe Rau in 2019, he made the decision to come down to this weight for a potential third Olympic team. Mason Manville is an interesting name, as he made the world team in 2017 but has seen his results dip a bit since then. He’s the 6 seed here, which gives him a tough road with Smith in the quarters, but he could certainly go on a run. Sadly, one of the biggest stars at this weight, Kamal Bey, is out due to a USADA failure-to-test violation. At last week’s qualifier, both Austin Morrow and Jesse Porter looked really good.
Making picks at this weight is tough. I think the top four of Fisher, Perkins, Smith, and Provisor are all legitimate contenders. Fisher fully earned the top seed with his domestic results since coming back, but others have had consistent results both in the US and at overseas tournaments for years that are hard to overlook. Provisor has a strong track record and even beat Alan Vera, a leading contender up at 87, at an obscure event a couple weeks ago; on the other hand, he hasn’t made a weight this low in over a decade. If those two hit in the semis, I’m inclined to take Provisor, if nothing else because he does well in low-scoring matches and his size advantage will make it Perkins beat Smith pretty convincingly in 2020, which makes him the favorite in the bottom semi. I don’t like Perkins’ chances in the final; although he gets to the body really well and has a good lift game on top, he’s struggled with larger opponents in the past, and got pushed around a bit against Provisor at the Wrestling Underground event last summer. Although that match probably shouldn’t count for much because it took place at a higher weight limit and inside an MMA-style cage, the image of Provisor turning Perkins with a gut is hard to get out of my mind. This is probably my least confident pick, but I’ll take Provisor to make yet another Olympic team over Perkins, with Fisher claiming the third and final national team spot.
87 kg
Joe Rau sits in the finals here. He’s got quite the story: he bulked up to 98 kg for 2016 and beat out returning world teamer Caylor Williams to make the team, but then failed to qualify the weight and was unable to compete in Rio. Now he’s in the opposite position, having qualified the weight a year ago at the Pan-Am qualifier, but still needs to secure his place on the team. The biggest gun in the challenge tournament is Alan Vera, who immigrated from Cuba and only became eligible to represent the US in the last year. Because he wasn’t a US athlete for any of the 2019 Trials qualifying tournaments, he had to go through Last Chance, but he won that in dominant fashion. Jon Anderson has not wrestled at World Team Trials in recent years, in part due to military obligations, but he’ll be ready to go here. Pat Martinez made the world team in 2018 and has to be part of the discussion, though Rau seems to have climbed ahead of him since. John Stefanowicz has a good arm spin and made the 2019 world team down at 82, though size might be an issue for him here. After that the field drops off a little in terms of name value and accolades, though wrestlers like Barrett Stanghill and Spencer Woods are no walk in the park.
Based on his dominance at events like the 2019 Dave Schultz, 2020 Senior Nationals, and Last Chance Qualifier, it’s hard to pick against Vera. The only cause for concern is that loss to Provisor, a 1-1 bout where the only points came from passivity calls. With the intensity of his handfighting, Anderson might be able to replicate something like that. I still don’t have enough confidence in anyone to stop him from scoring both on the feet and on the mat, though, to actually pick them to beat him. I like Alan Vera to advance to the best of three against Rau. From there, as much as I hate to admit it (I love Joe Rau), I think Vera cruises. He’s beaten Rau convincingly in both previous meetings, and I expect him to do it again. The third spot on the national team probably comes down to Martinez vs Anderson, and I lean toward Anderson.
97 kg
Like 87, this weight has one clear favorite, but unlike 87, the favorite has a bye to the finals. G’Angelo Hancock has been the rep at every world championships this cycle and has wins over some of the world’s best, but has never been able to break through and win a medal of his own. Challenging him are a group of familiar faces, including Lucas Sheridan and Daniel Miller. But there are also younger guys on the upswing of their career, including Nick Boykin and the surging Braxton Amos. Jake Clark also came back from a layoff and did well at last chance to get himself into the field.
I have something of a bad track record of jinxing the wrestlers I write about, but I think Hancock wins this weight handily. He already has a long history of success against Miller and Sheridan, the top two seeds in the challenge tournament. If someone pulls the upset, it’s probably as much a sign that the elder statesmen are on the decline as the takeoff point for a new contender. The only wrestler whose potential might rival that of Hancock is Amos, who is just one year out of high school. He lost to Boykin back in October, though, and probably needs more time to develop before he’s contending for world and Olympic teams. I’ll take Hancock, Miller, and Sheridan to make the national team spots at this weight.
130 kg
There are two front-runners at this weight. Adam Coon made his first world team right out of college, unseating Robby Smith, and winning silver at the world championships. He’s cooled down a bit since, failing to win a match at 2019 worlds and picking up losses at the international events he’s done. Meanwhile, Cohlton Schultz has been heating up, making Final X in 2019 and winning Senior Nationals in 2020. Other big names are Jacob Mitchell and elder statesman Toby Erickson. One intriguing guy is Tanner Farmer, who played college football at Nebraska and joined the wrestling team while serving as a graduate assistant at Concordia. Now he’s making a name for himself in Greco, and won Last Chance easily.
The big question is whether Schultz has reached the level of Coon. Schultz pushed around college heavyweights pretty easily this season, earning tons of stall points after driving them out of bounds. Iowa’s Tony Cassioppi, though, had the size and Greco skill to hold his ground and eventually crushed Schultz on the mat. Coon surpasses Cassioppi in both departments, so at best Schultz is probably only going to go even on the feet with Coon. From there it comes down to par terre. Coon didn’t have much of a top game when he first got to the senior level, but he was able to turn Schultz in 2019 and was starting to show a wider skillset even in matches he lost before the pandemic. Schultz has also stepped up his top game and gutted most of his opponents at Senior Nationals, though he did get countered a couple times. My pick to claim the Olympic team spot is Coon, who will then have to qualify the weight next month in Bulgaria. Mitchell has a bit of a game between himself and the rest of the field, and he should take third.