UFC Fight Night 174: The Fight Site Staff Predictions

We’re not exactly hyped for this card.

But there are a few fights on it we felt worthy of discussion (‘Cowboy’  Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta should be interesting too) and….well, it’s a mixture of intrigue and inherent fear or being depressed that seems the constant reading through these predictions.

Robert Whittaker Vs Darren Till

Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: I like this fight a lot and I love what I heard from Robert Whittaker this week. He truly feels happy to be here and feels fresh. I think the absence of fans and heavy media attention is the best thing that could happen to him for his comeback.

Since his last fight in October I changed my mind a couple times on ‘The Reaper’. I never accepted to believe his body was breaking apart forever. For sure, he had a series of bad injuries and mental breakdown, due to overtraining and feeling burned out but I never thought this was because of the brutality of his fights with Yoel Romero. I thought that Bobby Knuckles looked amazing physically against Israel Adesanya. When I first saw the fight I was very mad at Bobby, not for losing but for how dumb he fought. I guess it was just an emotional reaction as I love him dearly. After watching the fights a couple times, he actually didn’t do as bad or dumb as I thought. It’s just that I expected so much of him and definitely underrated Adesanya. So, even though Whittaker’s blitz tended to be too similar, (not enough body punching, no takedown threat, no real manipulation of rhythm) I can see why he kept head hunting as he only missed some of those heavy shots by a narrow margin. So I’m pretty optimistic for the former champion to come back. He has a solid opponent in front of him. 

I like Darren, he’s a good fighter, very strong, super fast with a good left hand. The open stance matchup is probably going to favor him a little bit more, as he makes good uses of body kicks. I disagree with Robert’s statement about Darren only having a left hand, he has more than that. We’ve been talking a lot about Robert’s struggles but Darren had his own problems to overcome. His last three performances at 170lbs were not that good. I thought he looked a bit limited in the fight with Stephen Thompson, too shy against Tyron, and not so inspired in the Masvidal fight. He looked better against the lesser opponent in Kelvin Gastelum, he shut him down completely and I enjoyed watching it a lot. But even in this fight, I see a Till who’s in doubt, concerned about his durability, and I’m forever wondering if he’ll get over the knockout loss he suffered from Jorge Masvidal.

I think Whittaker can win the fight comfortably if he mixes his wrestling with his striking. Darren has a good sprawl, but that’s about it, and it’s time for Bobby to wrestle some fools now. If Whittaker gets one early takedown, he will be able to get his striking going much easier during those blitz/shifts. Darren’s defense is not very good and I don’t think he’s able to defend strikes and takedowns at this point. Can he catch Bobby coming in with a left hand shot? Yeah of course but I don’t think it’s likely to happen, Whittaker’s head movement is very good and Darren does not have the counter skills of Adesanya. So, Till’s best chance would be to pressure Whittaker and end him there (like when he knocked down Jorge, KO’d Cerrone, and dropped Thompson) and I don’t think there’s a chance in the world, Whittaker spends time in that fight with his back against the fence. Whittaker will fight his fight, pressuring Till with those blitzes, good enough cage craft to spend most of the fight in the position he wants to be. Definitely has enough power to make Till gun shy too. I think Darren’s a solid middleweight though that will stay in the top 10 for many years. Overall, Robert is a better mixed martial artist and I think once again a beautiful left hook will send Till to the canvas unconscious. After Saturday’s night everybody will agree that the reaper is back. Robert Whittaker via TKO round 2.

Kyle McLachlan: If I wasn’t at all concerned about Bobby Knuckle’s physical and mental state, I would pick him easily. However, I have to sadness hedge: I imagine Whittaker will look pretty good, but can see Till catching him with a left hand as Bobby tries to enter the pocket with one of his ‘dragging’ left hooks. If Whittaker wins it’ll be by dictating the pace and range (we’ve seen Till get snake charmed into low output bouts more than once) and I see him doing just that until he gets clobbered. I don’t even really rate Till as a puncher, I’m just low on current Bobby Knuckles. I hope I’m wrong, and realise I’m allowing my emotions to get in the way here: this is anti-analysis Darren Till by depressing TKO round 3

Sriram Muralidaran: The doubts I have on Whittaker are a bit similar to the ones I had with Dustin Poirier prior to the Hooker fight, although more intense here; Whittaker looked less shot than I thought against Israel Adesanya, looked more like a bad matchup that encouraged him to make bad decisions, but there are just too many factors for me to fully trust Whittaker moving forward. He’s deep into his career with injuries and sicknesses outside the cage defining the last couple years for him, and his work inside the cage has largely been brilliant but defined by the same kind of adversity; mid-fight injuries in both Romero fights, and the sheer damage he took at the hands of Romero at 225 and Adesanya at 243. I don’t expect him to stay elite for much longer.

That said, I frankly don’t really think he needs to be elite to beat Darren Till. Till is a fine meat-and-potatoes sort of southpaw, he’s huge and relatively powerful and his game is the classic open-stance backstepping counter upon his opponent’s entry, for which he creates opportunities through his pressure. He’s a fine pressurer and he looked thoughtful on the backfoot against Gastelum, angling back and framing to keep Gastelum turning to face, but Gastelum is also the lowest-level test one can find for an outfighter in terms of footwork alone. Till couldn’t counter the blitzes of Jorge Masvidal as soon as Masvidal started to feint to cover his entries, he got dinged hard with left hooks on the inside there, and the general pocket-differential is massive; Whittaker is (was?) a genuinely brilliant operator in close offensively and defensively, and Till is quite one-note in both respects with his signature awkward lean when his opponent swings at him.

I don’t think Till has much success timing even the 243 version of Whittaker on entry, because even Adesanya largely didn’t and Whittaker is incredibly diligent in terms of building defense into his offense; I also don’t think Till has the defensive poise or the footwork to frustrate Whittaker’s shorter blitzes and force sloppier moments from him the way Adesanya did, nor the specific sort of counterpunching to put him on ice on exits the way Romero largely found his success at 225. Whittaker can likely feint Till’s counters into passivity, kick him from the outside, and cover the requisite distance smartly enough with his jab and left hook to make Till’s defense look inadequate. Till could try kicking him but he hasn’t been particularly keen to kick in open-stance matchups the way he did the southpaw Gastelum, and he’ll be facing likely the most diligent backfoot operator of his career. Rob may lose it, but it is his to lose. Whittaker by TKO3. 

Danny Martin: I picked Darren Till in the podcast, but I’m starting to think it might be the wrong pick. He is a negative fighter, who appears to be fighting middleweights with an extremely uninspiring punch-&-clutch strategy. It leverages his size and his ability to limit exchanges, which makes an already boring fighter nigh unwatchable and probably won’t even work past a certain point, given how badly outsized Gastelum was and how merely OK-ish Till proved to be in the clinch. If Whittaker looks anything like his old self, he should have this locked up as he is plainly the better fighter of the two. However, I’m picking this fight entirely based on how the two have trended and I guess there is some value to being the more active fighter. I worry that Rob left whatever was left of his athletic prime on the mat against Yoel Romero in their second fight. Darren Till via Unanimous Decision. 

Lukasz Fenrych: Till is a fighter with some decent natural gifts- timing, positioning- who spent so long relying on his size that he’s crippled his ability to use those gifts by leaving himself with a shockingly empty toolkit. As Sriram says he’s a decent pressurer, and on good days might even be a very good one, but he’s utterly reliant on turning that pressure into one or two strikes and if they don’t have an effect, he’s got no way to follow up. 

There are also some pretty enormous questions about what happens if an opponent can force him to back up; so far a combination of the right opponents and the sheer scale of the man has meant Till’s ability to actually fight on the backfoot- as opposed to just stepping off to maintain range as an opponent struggles to stay off the cage- has never really been tested, except for by Masvidal, who obviously knocked him out by forcing him into pocket exchanges  With that in mind, Whittaker, who in contrast has one of the most layered attacking games in MMA - despite the limitations Adesanya exposed- and is a more consistent pressure than Gamebred would really have to be off the boil to lose to Till. It’s not impossible that Till’s size will bait the same awkward rushes Adesanya did, but even if it does he’s probably too predictable to surprise Whittaker and will be helpless once he arrives in the pocket.Because of this, and acknowledging that Whittaker might be eroded enough by the wars he’s been in that all this will be moot, I’m predicting Whittaker by KO.  

Mateusz Fenrych: I’m with Phil on this. While Whittaker’s middleweight career has been a grinding slog, and he did look somewhat flat against Adesanya, I also don’t think he’s totally done. I don’t like to make too many predictions involving factors like a fighter’s out of camp state of mind or anything like that, but he has spoken in a somewhat encouraging fashion about overtraining up until now, which would suggest he’s corrected a significant problem in maintaining in-cage performance. He has also had a decent break since his title loss.

Plus, a large reason for him looking flat against Adesanya is that Adesanya is a brilliant fighter who gameplans well, and clearly worked to Whittaker’s weaknesses; mainly, denying Whittaker the confidence in his own range and timing.

I have strong doubts that Darren Till, decent fighter with his own strengths that he is, will be able to so consistently break Whittaker’s line of attack - be it by angling out off the back foot or simply stepping away from Whittaker’s straight-line blitz path as Whittaker was setting himself to rush - or, more importantly, layer in counters on top of counters in longer exchanges.

Till is a good pressure fighter, but Whittaker is not cowed by pressure; he never once looked fazed by Romero when crowded by him, nor did he ever lose his head under the wild rushes of Derek Brunson. 

Till, despite being a large chap, even at middleweight, doesn’t seem especially strong either, so the clinch game Till showed against Gastelum should hold no fears for Whittaker. Not that it wasn’t a more cautionary strategic approach from Till; he was using the clinch to escape counters rather than to initiate attacks.

In Till’s favour though; he is fast, and starts fast. And while he isn’t the most powerful hitter either, Whittaker has been rocked several times in his last three fights, being finished, indeed, in his last one.

However, I think that Whittaker’s in-cage experience will tell. He’s faced a murderers row of late, and mostly faced them down, while Till is new to the weight class and still somewhat finding his feet as a fighter, especially after his two back-to-back losses. I think a relatively well-rested Whittaker gets the win with a TKO3.

Ryan Wagner: Rob’s rocking the unshaven head for this fight, which can mean only one thing: Darren is fucked. Robert Whittaker UD

Ben: Whittaker KO 3

Mauricio Rua Vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Kyle: Their 2015 bout was ultra-depressing fun, and I think this has the makings of an even more depressing--but even more fun in a sloppy as fuck way--kinda’ fight. 

I’ll take Shogun, finally stopping Lil Nog….and for gawds sake, please lads, both shake hands, hug it out, and agree to both retire after this one. Shogun by TKO round 1

Philippe : I love them both so much. Kyle and I actually commented on the two great fights they had against each other. So if you want to see it, support us on Patreon, and if you are a patreon go watch it! 

Now, for that third fight, they obviously are both so past their prime but I’m still happy they made that fight. I much prefer seeing them against each other rather than being fed to the young lions. It’s hard to see Nogueira being competitive at this point. He’ll probably try to fight at a lower pace and I guess he’s gonna pull guard at some point because I’m not sure he can deal with Shogun’s pace in 2020. Can Nogueira pull one last Armbar victory of his back ? That would be beautiful. But I think Shogun (who’s six years younger) is still in a much better condition (even with Two destroyed knees) than Lil Nog. One thing's for sure though, they may be much slower, sloppier than they used to be but they are two real fighters at heart. Thoses 2 legends were born to fight, so they will put their heart out in that one. Hopefully, this is the last fight of their career, but I think only Lil’ Nog will retire. Shogun’s recent wins over younger light Heavyweight (says a lot about the state of that division) probably give him that illusion that he can still compete at high level so he’s gonna stay there a couple more years but for Lil’ Nog I’m confident it’s the last one. One All time classic fight in 2005 in Tokyo, a second fun fight in 2015 in Rio de Janeiro, and now a third and last one in Abu Dhabi in 2020. The perfect way to end that beautiful rivalry. I think Shogun is going 3-0 still by decision in a sloppy but brutal war in which Nogueira shows once again the heart of a champion he has. Nothing but love for these two guys. Mauricio Rua by Unanimous Decision.

Sriram: Why? None of Little Nog’s recent showings look as bad as a draw with Paul Craig where Shogun nearly got knocked out on the feet, so I’ll go with him, but this...isn’t good. To be honest, Nog should’ve called it a career after clubbing Alvey; respect them both a lot for once being genuinely solid fighters at weight-classes where that’s hard to find, but this fight is so far into “please retire” territory that bare-knuckle promotions are currently sneaking into their locker-rooms to leave business cards. Little Nog by UD.  

Ben: RUA KO 2

Fabricio Werdum Vs Alexander Gustafsson 

Kyle McLachlan: They’re both shot, they’re both below average based on the recent performances we’ve seen from them, but I feel like Werdum just being ‘better’ as well as naturally bigger will give him the edge, even though Gus is younger and faster. Werdum via decision in one of the worst fights of recent memory

Philippe : Way more optimistic for that fight than Kyle. I think Werdum is shot bad. I think Gustafsson is shot but not as bad as the brazilian. I wish Gustafsson would have made that move to Heavyweight years ago. Alex looked shy against Anthony Smith 13 months ago. But I think the speed advantage he has in there will make him feel good and I think he’s about to style on the old Werdum. In a fun but not necessarily high level fight I see Alexander Gustafsson stopping Fabricio. Alexander Gustafsson by TKO 3. 

Sriram: It’s becoming increasingly clear how much the UFC is struggling to make compelling fights above 185. Given their last performances, I’d pick nearly anyone with a modicum of athleticism over Werdum or Gustafsson on presumption alone; Werdum looked dreadful in every way against Alexey Oleinik, even in a fight he could’ve won, and Alexander Gustafsson looked absolutely listless in a submission loss to middling action-banger Anthony Smith. This is a compelling fight because both seem to be at about the same stage of decay, and that’s the worst sort of compelling fight. 

Werdum wins for every moment that he’s simply sprinting at Gustafsson the way he did at people in his prime, because Gustafsson’s poise on the backfoot is akin to that of a deer on ice; however, Werdum likely doesn’t have the cardio to do that for more than 3 total minutes, where Gustafsson builds his game on racking up jab/left hook/uppercut volume in open space. For my money, it’ll be a disgusting fight where Gustafsson looks bad and Werdum looks worse, both physically and in the fight. Gustafsson via UD, in a fight that makes us appreciate the shot fighters who can still do enough to get knocked out.Lukasz: Both guys are beyond shot at this stage, and neither was brimming with boundless ability even in their prime. I’ll pick Werdum because he’s bigger and, as Sriram says, Gus’s ability to get out of the way of things is basically zero, but there’s a pretty good chance we get one round of action and two rounds of two exhausted, broken men trying to get their bodies to move against their better judgement. Werdum by sleep-inducing decision 

Mateusz: Oh man, heavyweight, while just beginning to occasionally show some green shoots, does like to remind us what it’s mostly about, doesn’t it.

Gustafsson has un-retired into active retirement, and has the appropriate apparent physique for it; Werdum has been sporting said physique for a while, and has been looking extremely lacklustre for some time.

This could be an ugly fight dominated by the sound of clicking joints and old-man breathing for three rounds, or it could end extremely early, and it’s hard to pick who loses easiest; the man who got submitted by Anthony Smith versus a known grappler or the man who got TKOd by Volkov or outstruck by Oleinik versus the… known… striker?

I’m going to throw out a guess and say that Werdum manages to drag Gustafsson down and submits him with a Rnd 2 Submission.

Ben: Gustafsson KO 3