UFC 276: Staff Picks
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
UFC 276 sees the returns of two truly great Oceanic champions, teammates on the verge of seemingly clearing their entire divisions of credible threats — but under very different circumstances nevertheless. After a competitive second win over the great Robert Whittaker in February of 2022, Israel Adesanya doesn’t have much to prove with regard to skill — in fact, he hardly had anything to prove in that regard before the fight. However, the now-longtime champion has a chance against Jared Cannonier to fight someone new at middleweight for the first time in several years — his last two title defenses saw Adesanya settle into a confident but workmanlike groove in fights where he never seemed to feel in danger, but Cannonier is both novel and dangerous for the New Zealander. Following a brutal knockout over divisional staple Derek Brunson, the powerful “Killa Gorilla” looks to find the mark against one of the most elusive champions in the sport.
On the other hand, Adesanya’s teammate in the co-main event has only grown more violent with each subsequent title defense — Alexander Volkanovski followed two competitive outings with the great Max Holloway with the destruction of Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung, looking more and more the part of a pound-for-pound topper. “The Great” now circles back to Holloway, his greatest challenge and the man who came closest to beating him at UFC 251 — and since, Holloway has also proven to be a cut above the rest of the field, particularly with his record-breaking performance over elite contender Calvin Kattar in January of 2021. Both men have something to prove against the other after the razor-close rematch, and UFC 276 may be their final chance to prove it.
The Fight Site’s MMA staff bring our predictions for the two big title fights, as well as a bantamweight showcase further down the card between hot prospect Sean O’Malley and the perennial contender Pedro Munhoz — looking to predict the dynamic of each fight, and which (if either) of these two champions will leave Las Vegas as the best man in their class.
Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
Sriram Muralidaran: Interesting-enough fight, I think - Adesanya has definitely settled into his “long-term champion” incarnation, for better or for worse, but being conservative hasn’t made him particularly easy to beat. Since the loss to Blachowicz at light-heavyweight, Adesanya’s racked up two rematch wins, and both have largely gone the same way - Adesanya isn’t exactly improving on his previous performances, but his skillset at 185 is formidable enough that he largely doesn’t have to. At this point, Adesanya makes his hay on being elite at both keeping opponents at distance (with his ringcraft, his subtle angles in the pocket, and his size) and at playing with his opponent’s expectations at range. Adesanya isn’t as rapid or as willful a builder off his feints as Volkanovski (his teammate), but he largely doesn’t need to be - being an incredibly sharp and mechanically sound kicker made him a nightmare for even the very best contender of his generation.
If Cannonier is meant to be the man to bring out another Whittaker 1 or Costa performance from “Stylebender”, I think that’s probably a mistaken belief - and that isn’t necessarily a compliment to nor a demerit from the Alaskan, he just seems perfectly tuned to make Adesanya’s fight lead to very few returns. Cannonier’s middleweight run has been defined by his composure - he doesn’t exactly end fights faster than he starts them, but he’s threatening and poised enough on the counter to make overwhelming him a daunting task. When Jack Hermansson tried to exhaust him with janky wrestling and a twitchy, feinty game on the outside, for instance, Cannonier simply ignored all the static being thrown at him - and that’s a temperament that contrasts sharply with Paulo Costa taking big steps back at every Adesanya feint, or Robert Whittaker’s general reactiveness. Cannonier doesn’t have the overall craft of someone like Yoel Romero, but he does seem to approach fights in a similar way philosophically - where he understands exactly what he doesn’t need to worry about, and can wait for his moment because his moments always mean more.
Combined with Cannonier being an active kicker who has some modicum of understanding on how not to get kicked all the time for free, this seems like one where Adesanya might have to live with small wins and struggle to find the big ones he had with Costa’s outside inertia or Robert Whittaker’s distance-closing desperation. The problem for Cannonier, however, is that there’s a big difference between Adesanya struggling on his own terms and struggling on someone else’s - and Adesanya has had this exact sort of fight so many times by now that he probably just wins on experience. Cannonier is a fine pressurer, but nothing too special, and the ring generalship of Robert Whittaker did throw him for a loop - he’s a stalking presence in the cage but not much of a ring-cutter, and that means he likely won’t fall afoul of Adesanya’s sharp counters (when his opponents give up their stance to cover too much distance in one go) but also won’t have much of a shot at forcing a pocketfight where Adesanya is far more beatable. It seems more and more doable to cause “Stylebender'' annoyance, but the gulf between annoying him and beating him seems too much to overcome - and fighting him on his terms probably leads to a slow, attritive fight where Adesanya doesn’t necessarily impress and doesn’t necessarily build, but does enough. Adesanya by unanimous decision.
Dan Albert: I was surprised to find this one might be potentially more competitive and difficult for Adesanya than the initial matchup might suggest. I have likened Adesanya to a quintessential sniper. That is, Adesanya works his best at a set distance where he can pick you off behind his feints, kicking game, and brilliant initiative. If you close the distance too recklessly, Adesanya’s predilection for counters is superlative. That is to say, the worst things to do against Adesanya are to rush him or to give him space to operate. Still, Adesanya has a few things that might play into Cannonier’s game. Although Cannonier’s lack of throwaways and ranged weapons - outside of his kicking game - means he’s liable to give up too much ground to Adesanya, he remains one of the division’s biggest spoilers and opportunists. Ignoring the fact that Cannonier is such an absurd hitter, what stands out is his patience and sense of timing. In his more difficult outings, Adesanya has shown to be very open on the counter, especially if his opponent wants to time him in the pocket or off the resets (esp. With his tendency to frame over repositioning). Whittaker’s success off the counter jab and Blachowitz/Romero’s decisions to feint back at Adesanya led to a surprising amount of tepidness from the champion - and Cannonier being willing to stand his ground and fire as Adesanya does while attacking from kicking range may help him here.
But there are a few reservations: Besides the aforementioned lack of ranged tools, Cannonier’s defense is incredibly static (his guard offers very little and he’s open to kicks) and, in layered exchange, he is incredibly rote. Against someone who is very willing to work around an opponent like Adesanya, this can be an enormous issue. Although Adesanya may well be willing to stay in a single gear to win and concede a fight that may end up being closer than it should, it’s tricky to find an ideal route for Cannonier to find a consistent success outside of staying close for pocket exchanges; though he may well be just about the worst person for Adesanya to get hurt by if it happens. He may give Adesanya some surprises, but I will take Adesanya by fourth round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Cannonier already talked about implementing a “patient” gameplan, which disappoints me somewhat. Adesanya would very likely win a long range, tepid kicking range fight with relative ease. As explained above, he’s the more adept and experienced fighter at that range, both in MMA and with his wealth of kickboxing experience.
What I’m hoping for is that Cannonier will get impatient at some point. He’s not going to win that fight, and he’s not one to be content when losing is my guess.
If Cannonier does come after Adesanya, things get interesting. Cannonier’s defense relies almost exclusively on parries and counters. His power is probably only second to Pereira’s in the division, and he’s got the craft to put hands on virtually everyone in the division as well. The problem is, he’s not the most adept cage cutter, generally stalking/walking down his opponents, and that kind of defensive style is ripe to be messed with by Adesanya’s feints. I don’t think he will bite on everything, but if Adesanya can really get him guessing on what’s coming, I expect Cannonier to start coming forward more recklessly to track Adesanya down. This is not a guarantee of Adesanya winning of course, but based on their respective performances when Cannonier does do this, I think Adesanya will land some stinging shots and start picking Cannonier apart. While tough, Cannonier has been finished/hurt before, and if Adesanya hurts him, I do expect a finish. Oh, and Adesanya does have quite a chin himself.
For Cannonier, he can’t let kicking range be for free. Adesanya is more risk averse, particularly early in fights. If he feels there’s a danger in trying to just kick from range, Cannonier will have a better chance of getting Adesanya to lead with punches, with plays into his parry/counter based defense. This isn’t unwinnable for Cannonier at all, but I’d feel way more confident in his chances if he was a more adept cage cutter. As it stands now, I’m actually expecting a slow pace at first, before Cannonier shows some urgency and tries closing distance, leaving him open to counters from Adesanya. Israel Adesanya via KO round 3.
Mateusz Fenrych: I think I, like a few of the Fight Site lads, am a quiet Cannonier appreciator. He’s not the most dynamic fighter nor exactly revolutionary, but he is a canny bastard, low-key strategically adept, and calmly vicious when the opportunity arises. Him having the aforementioned ground-shaking power helps give his fights that tinge of morbid anticipation; it’s pretty intriguing to see how this heavyweight-turned-middleweight applies his limited but well-honed gifts to get into a position where he can land a meteor on the other dude’s head. He has been capable of bringing nice adaptations or apparently specific tactics into a cage with him; see his leg kicks vs Silva and takedown defence vs Hermansson or Brunson, so it’s apparent he can gameplan well.
What doesn’t bode too well for him, though, is that his opponent in this case is a much better strategiser in the cage than Cannonier is. Cannonier is good at spotting a useful aspect of his game to bring to bear but, as mentioned, he is not the most natural at getting to the best positions to utilise them, He IS a very calm operator, but so is Adesanya; the previously established apparent ability to filter out unnecessary noise is less useful against someone who has, in the the past, if not so much recently, shown to be very capable of building off feints and reads, and against more furiously fast-paced operators than Cannonier himself. Cannonier’s advantages lie in the clash of the fight, and he seems less able to work between the flashpoints, his lack of feints or less-than-stellar footwork being two examples of this. Adesanya meanwhile is one of the few fighters on the UFC roster who can be seen observing and adjusting in the moments between the clashes.
I’ll differ to my colleagues in saying this is likely to be one of those fights for Adesanya where he CAN find a resurgence of flashy form; I think Cannonier’s game is just perfectly stop-start enough for him to be able to play in the margins, while also having to be very mindful of his obvious physical threats. An Adesanya performance similar to that of against Costa seems a distinct possibility, and with Cannonier’s chin being erodable throughout a fight, I shall predict a Rnd 3 TKO, Adesanya
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway 3
Sriram: There is something deeply wrong about Volkanovski and Holloway still not getting a PPV main-event, for a trilogy that really has had everything one could want from MMA. Both have very real claims to being the pound-for-pound top 2, both are thrilling fighters who only seem to have grown more dangerous, and the fights themselves have been so different that a trilogy when one of them is 2-0 seems entirely fine. Since their last meeting, both have gone 2-0, and often in devastating fashion; the champion destroyed Chan Sung Jung with ease and defeated the crafty Brian Ortega with only moments of danger, where Holloway put record numbers on another one of the best boxers in MMA in Calvin Kattar before a barnburner against Yair Rodriguez. The winner likely still won’t be free of questions, even with Josh Emmett on the horizon - and the loser will still be one of the very best to ever fight.
For a fight that’s happened twice before, it’s also unusually difficult to predict the dynamic of this one; Holloway has only looked better and better, including in the rematch with Volkanovski, and this includes how he approached the fight strategically. Fight 1 saw Holloway doing his usual thing - looking to close distance and play with expectations with his jab, building into long multi-level combinations - but Volkanovski’s ability to frustrate Holloway at every turn with his ringcraft and his ways of intercepting Holloway’s entries (the counterpunching, the counter kicks, and the transitional work) got him a convincing win. In the rematch, the Hawaiian flipped the script - kicking with Volkanovski, feinting his way in behind the kicks, and drawing out Volkanovski’s entries to punish him with specific counters. Volkanovski still got his kicks, but not as often for free, as Holloway wasn’t looking to jab in as obsessively - and Volkanovski’s leads needed to grow more and more educated to keep Holloway from finding success.
Ultimately, barring physical concerns - Volkanovski being the older and less durable man - this still seems like an unusually difficult fight for Holloway. As terrific as the Kattar performance was, Kattar is also a fighter who relies more on force and accuracy in the pocket to dissuade volume - and Holloway is a fighter who is almost entirely immune to those considerations, so he wasn’t tested in the same way as Volkanovski shortchanging his entries. While Volkanovski’s defense in the pocket is somewhat exploitable, getting there is a far more difficult task for Holloway than it was against Kattar (whose entire style invites exchanges on any terms, compared to Volkanovski dictating exactly when and where he’ll allow a pocket trade to happen). In contrast, while Yair Rodriguez is a significantly worse fighter than everyone else Holloway had faced since Jose Aldo, he did draw an annoying fight for Max - one centering around kicking him very hard and avoiding longer exchanges, however messily. What sunk him was ringcraft and positioning concerns that simply do not exist with the champion - who looked genuinely flawless for the vast majority of both Ortega and Jung, in fights that largely hinged around his ability to feint his opponents out of their pants and take angles into the pocket.
I do get some weird feelings about picking Volkanovski in this fight, despite being 2-0 - Holloway is just as smart in clearly actionable ways, he’s younger, he’s more durable, he’s faced the tougher competition since their second fight (more in Kattar than Rodriguez but nevertheless), and I think it’s very easy to overstate Volkanovski’s improving form in the unique position of (until now) fighting markedly worse competition with each subsequent title defense. However the fight goes, it’s one where the loser is 99% as good as the winner on their best day. But between Volkanovski still looking like a tricky matchup for Max, plus Volkanovski figuring out Holloway’s insanely sharp adjustments in the middle of fight 2, I feel like Holloway is more likely to hit a wall in terms of the adjustments he can make. Ultimately, a fight where Holloway is always going to be fighting his B-game - having to work very hard to establish and close behind his jab, and essentially never getting his insanely long punch combinations - is going to make it tough to favor him consistently in a battle of wits against the smartest fighter in the world. In a fight this deep, there’s no way not to be a bit reductive - so I’ll lean into it, pick the proven guy, and say Volkanovski by decision.
Dan: Considering I’ve already broken down both the first and second fights, I think most of my reads on how both men operate are pretty fleshed-out. Nonetheless, it’s nigh-impossible to find a more significant, high-level fight the UFC can put on right now; the winner of this one will have as legitimate a claim to being the best in the world as you can pick. And, for anyone trying to get a read on this one and who the victor may well be, good luck.
What I can say is that what often determined either man’s success in both fights came down to ringcraft. That is to say, the man who controlled the space for engagements and where they occurred is best equipped to win here. Neither man is necessarily great on the backfoot, but their improved efforts in neutral space and with cutting the cage will matter quite a bit here. Of the two, with his cast-iron durability and having arguably the greatest offensive depth of anyone on the roster, it’s naturally difficult to make Holloway back up without navigating the fine margins of the pocket - you have to make him think or make him back off. Fortunately, Volkanovski has demonstrated that he can engage Holloway consistently and mitigate the former champion’s most dangerous ranges even when he’s the one on the backfoot - the only caveat meaning he has to amplify his workrate and mixup game. His greatest successes lied in turning Holloway into counters, mixing up his offense consistently enough to keep space, and, what may end up being a focus here, looking to create tie-ups for trips. Still, Holloway’s own efforts with his kicking game and the transitional attacks he utilized in his last few are indicative that he recognizes how pivotal being on the frontfoot in multifaceted ways matters here.
Simply put, this is a fight where lessons from the previous fights cannot be ignored - both men will have to double down and, if they’re looking to take some modicum of control, add something else to the table. But, make no mistake, this is a fight where if technical lessons are forgotten - or if either man has lost some step - that could very well tip the fight in the other direction. Both men are going to be met with demands of their conditioning, strategical preparations, and tactical adaptability throughout. If their rematch ought to have enforced anything, it’s that both men are good enough and aware enough to do all of that. How many answers both can have left remains to be seen.
Ultimately, we’re splitting hairs here. You can have some expectations for what’s going to happen when these two meet this weekend, but no one ought to feel confident with their pick. I’ve decided to take Max Holloway through a contentious, hard-fought decision in a bout with some variation of the dynamic from fight II - where I think Holloway’s offensive depth and improved attacks in the clinch might prove instrumental. Volkanovski is MMA’s best at staying just one-step ahead, though the amount of activity he needed to keep ahead of Holloway does cause some room for concern - in the rematch, it made it about an even fight and giving Holloway even just a little bit means he’ll find more ways to push his momentum and surprise Volkanovski on enough occasions. Still, this is anyone’s fight. And I cannot wait to see it.
Ben: I’ll keep it simple. Holloway came into that second fight with a nearly perfect response to the first fight, and the issues he had with Volkanovski in those five rounds. By the end of round 3 in the second fight, Volkanovski had figured Max out again and was winning the fight. I love Holloway as a fighter, I really do. I am not sure what he will be able to do in this fight that will change the complexion of the fight all that much. I expect this to be just as closely contested (finish notwithstanding) as the other two, but with a similar outcome. There’s nothing I can give you analytically that hasn’t been said by others smarter than me. Read Dan’s article on the second fight. Alexander Volkanovski via Unanimous Decision.
Haxxorized:
Full disclosure: I gave Max fight 2, and I have never been able to score it any other way.
We have written enough about the dynamic of this fight. The first fight was close but clear, despite how competitive it became. The second was even more competitive and with a far more disputed outcome. These are the margins we are working with here, and I would probably accept an argument that these two fighters are the pinnacle of skills in the sport. Aljo/Yan are probably the only two in the running real competition in that department.
Despite my initial doubts about Max after fight 1, fight 2 proved both have a bottomless well of tricks, trials and tribulations they can bring. Each man has made purposeful improvements while beating up top5 contenders, which is always encouraging. Max’s improved clinch and incorporation of elbows for higher power strikes are exciting possibilities to pair with fight 2’s kicking game. Likewise, Volk’s sharpened lead hand, confidence on the counter and general offensive threat are all areas he has further developed post-Max 2. The problem with reading how those changes factor into this matchup is, to be blunt: that they are both miles ahead of everyone else in the division.
This matchup is a meta within its own, so there is a hard limit to meaningful reads you can take from either man’s development since their last outing. The only prediction I would ever feel confident making is that Max is more likely to open with the surprises, and Volk is more likely to prove the more substantial late-fight adapter.
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley
Ben: Munhoz having 3 rounds to tire out and break down O’Malley makes this trickier to pick. 5 rounds leans me to Munhoz. His leg kicks, ridiculous durability, relentless pace, and incredible scrambling and grappling are honestly a nightmare for O’Malley, who will look to snipe Munhoz coming in with hard straight shots. O’Malley needs to focus his attack on the body and legs in order to wear down and slow the plodding Munhoz. He’s the faster and longer fighter, and we’ve seen him empty his tank trying to break unbreakable chins before. He’s a hard hitter, but far from anything special in that regard. Munhoz is of course aging, and his chin can’t hold forever, so it’s a situation where it will depend on if it’s vintage Munhoz. If he’s still himself, it’ll likely come down to how quickly Munhoz can get to his leg kicks, and get his pace up. O’Malley will slow down if he can’t fight at his preferred pace, not something you can do with Munhoz. Pedro Munhoz via submission round 3.
Sriram: This feels like a weird trap fight for both sides. The popular wisdom at this point is that a fast, long fighter is generally going to make Pedro Munhoz look bad; he’s not a very quick bantamweight, he’s defensively very raw (mostly because his durability means he mostly doesn’t have to care), and his game tends to work best against opponents who don’t exactly put a premium on mobility. That said, I think Munhoz’s last two fights drastically overstate the vulnerability of Munhoz to just “guys who can move” - in that, regardless of their mileage, Aldo and Cruz are two of the trickiest movers in the sport. In terms of ringcraft, they’re both among the very best to ever fight - and Sean O’Malley decidedly is not that. He knows to move, but in general, the massive bantamweight tends to prefer huge leaps backwards and running out of bad spots - and past some sharp counters on big entries from his opponents, he’s not a particularly deep pocketfighter. Unlike Jose Aldo, he’s not keen to stand his ground and make Munhoz reconsider jabbing in - and unlike Dominick Cruz, the messiness of his stance isn’t weaponized into tricky shifts and direction changes, it just exists on its own. Without the auxiliary tools of those two, even very fast bantamweights ran into very real trouble with “The Young Punisher”; for instance, the speedy Jimmie Rivera’s work in the pocket and his footwork were more refined than O’Malley’s by orders of magnitude, but lack of an urgent and systematic response to Munhoz’s kicking game meant that his raw speed just didn’t really matter after a point.
In a general sense, a completely indestructible pressurer (no matter how sound) who loves kicking legs as hard as he can seems like a terrible matchup for Sean O’Malley - who needed a second wind against Terrion Ware just walking at him for a round, whose stance and movement don’t enable the kick defense of Aldo or even Cruz, who was effectively kicked and pressured in spots by Kris Moutinho at a huge athleticism disadvantage and whose physical durability has seemed suspect on more than one occasion. Munhoz has exclusively fought better competition than O’Malley since the win over (the also very quick) Garbrandt 3 years ago, and he seems entirely attuned to making O’Malley’s life miserable with the slightest bit of slowdown.
That said, the concern of Munhoz slowing down (metaphorically, can’t get much slower literally) is a valid one - considering how much he leans on his durability. As seen in Rob Font, at 135, slight declines tend to build and compound until they look like absolutely game-breaking flaws - but I don’t think there’s a great reason to expect it right this moment, and O’Malley seems to absolutely need it for a win. The route to beating Munhoz has never been to take him out with one big counter on a sloppy entry, the way O’Malley tends to win fights against decent competition - even over 3, beating him took hardworking and disciplined outfighting performances from some of the best bantamweights of all time. O’Malley doesn’t seem anywhere close to that, and I think the style matchup of “Munhoz vs. a fast but physically fragile counterpuncher with suspect responses to kicks” (which we’ve seen a few times before) bears out. Munhoz by TKO2.
Mateusz: Boys, let’s face it, this should really, on the face of it, be a relatively simple fight for O’Malley, right? Long, pretty fast (and fighting someone who would make Joe Joyce look speedy) and capable of some useful movement, the weed-obsessed dope should really have a relatively simple path to victory here.
However- his fragility leaves something of an open question. And not just in the sense that his bones keep disintegrating while he fights, enacting a sort of weird real-life analogy for that one scene in Looper where a dude’s limbs disappear in real time. He has also shown that he can rather slow down in fights, and also run out of ideas despite initially seeming like he has all of them - his early flash didn’t translate terribly well into substance against Kris Moutinho, a majorly undersized last-minute opponent.
Munhoz has the durability that Moutinho showed in that fight and then some; and he also has something to offer in return.
Munhoz has the experience to suggest that he will not fall for O’Malley’s colourful peacocking in the cage - he tends not to get visibly frustrated by more technically refined opponents, but rather plugs away like a tiny golem, using his chin and attritional kicking game to wear on his opponents until he gets close enough to grapple or land a biggie. He also has the stamina to last the course; he has never been finished and the fight is ALWAYS difficult for the victor. Just ask current champ Sterling, or former champs Cruz or Aldo, or Frankie Edgar… you get the picture.
O’Malley simply isn’t in the same class craft-wise, stamina-wise skill-wise as any of these extremely accomplished fighters who struggled mightily to a win - meanwhile O’Malley got a hurty leg once because he damaged it on Chito Vera’s shin, and then got finished. This seems like a very obvious pick for the metaphorical dynamic wave to crash against the immovable cliffs and dissipate rather suddenly, so Munhoz TKO Rnd 3