UFC 265: Staff Picks
Image courtesy of the UFC
While the summer has been somewhat inconsistent for the UFC, due to many of their biggest stars fighting fairly recently, UFC 265 has turned out a quite solid card regardless; originally headlined by Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena, the UFC scrambled quickly to replace it before it was even cancelled, and the result is a supremely questionable interim-belt that nevertheless should create a definite contender for Francis Ngannou. In a sense, even more clearly than the eventual titlefight, Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane can dictate the direction of heavyweight moving forward — as Gane’s unique slickness and mobility for a heavyweight prospect contrasts with Lewis’s ability to pull sickening knockouts from thin air with veteran aplomb. While Ngannou’s recent title-win makes the belt for this one somewhat illusory, there’s also reason to be interested in either against “The Predator'“— as Lewis already has a decision win over the champion from 2018, whereas Gane poses an elusive and tricky challenge that no one else at 265 seems poised to present (especially with the decline of Stipe Miocic).
Underneath the main event, one of the greatest (if not the greatest) of all time looks to continue an unparalleled legacy, as Jose Aldo looks to get a second victory at 135 — after giving Marlon Moraes and even Petr Yan all they could handle, the Brazilian took a decision over the solid Marlon “Chito” Vera, but now can cement his place among the top 5. His opponent is one of the most under-ranked in the sport — Pedro Munhoz already has wins over the #4 and the #6, both within a round, but finds himself outside of the elite looking in. Off a terrific fight against Jimmie Rivera, “The Young Punisher” can get in range for his first crack at a belt at UFC 265, if he can leverage his tremendously high-paced approach against perhaps the best pace-limiter in MMA history.
The Fight Site’s MMA team brings our predictions — who we expect to walk away with the next shot at the heavyweight belt, which great bantamweight can take another step forward, and a few more interesting fights up and down the card.
Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane
Sriram Muralidaran: Lewis is seemingly inept at the vast majority of things he does -- a brutal knockout-chaser carried by absurd athleticism and a decent eye for counters that appears to work despite any hole he gets dug into, and yet completely dismantled in Junior dos Santos' final UFC win before he started getting knocked out by every quasi-elite he fought. Gane is a patient range-fighter who seems to understand his limitations in longer exchanges, a solid kicker who can jab quite decently, and he attacks the body more than the heavyweight average of zero times (which has been a notable spot of fragility for Lewis, hurting him consistently and chipping at a tank that's already not quite impenetrable). Limiting Lewis has been done before several times, he does nothing to dictate the pace or place or range of the fight for the vast majority of the time, and Lewis isn't the sort to consistently attack Gane's issues (such as linear retreats or occasionally shoddy mechanics in exchanges). The pick seems obvious. Lewis via KO5.
Iggy Schekelburger: Heavyweight is the premier meme division in MMA, and a “Good Heavyweight” is something of a perennial white whale for fight fans. So naturally every time a heavyweight that shows a certain degree of proficiency shows up, people feel compelled to hop on that bandwagon. Then it turns out for all the flash and technical ability in one area of the game, said heavyweight has a bunch of glaring and silly holes in his style, which is often revealed by way of embarrassing KO against someone exactly like Derrick Lewis: a lumbering, plodding brawler with a hard head and a big punch. Cyril Gane is the newest candidate for the title of “The Good Heavyweight” in a long string of promising HW contenders: he’s in shape, he’s good-looking, and his style is pretty and eye-catching. A big man that does switch-hitting and seems to ascribe to the idea of floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee? Why, he must be something truly special! Except in Gane’s case I think his style is better summed up as: “He floats like a butterfly and stings like one, too”.
He’s good at controlling the pace of the fight in the sense that most of his opponents tend to be bedazzled by his ceaseless movement and ability to jab off both hands from both stances, and he does have good stopping power in his body kicks. It’s a good combination of skills to have, but from what I’ve seen of him he lacks proper stopping power in his rear hand. As in, he just plain does not have a good rear power shot that is essential to have at HW. Part of the reason why most HW fights turn into snoozefests is that both guys are afraid of getting sparked, and so far all Gane showed us is horrendously ugly straight-arm rainbow swings that are just begging to be countered.
Gane has a process which already places him head and shoulders above most HW contenders but I feel like this process isn’t really geared towards finishing fights decisively. And while styling on your opponents and making them look like out-of-shape mall cops is funny and all, that is not a very safe thing to do, not at HW. We saw the limitations inherent in risk-mitigating games like that when Nate Diaz spun Leon Edwards’ jaw around and quite literally made everyone forget that Edwards was kicking Nate’s ass from pillar to post for what was essentially 99% of the fight. At HW, a shot like that means you’re getting sparked, plain and simple.
If Gane was able to mix his kicks and punches in a way that contributes to getting finishes, then yes, I’d be sold. If Gane had a well-developed clinch game that lets him find transitional attacks or sneakers on the break, I’d be sold. So far he seems to be content with pot-shotting his opponents to a decision. He seems to have a decent eye for submissions from top but then the opponents he was able to finish this way were 1: completely exhausted, and 2: not very good. Seeking funny sub victories is cool and all, but is it safe? Is it safe to do in a division where a 265-pound man may fall on top of you, squish you and then ground and pound you into unconsciousness? Especially when your opponent is Derrick Lewis, who laughs at silly little things like “top control” and “mixing the martial arts”, simply because he is big and square? Derrick Lewis’ defensive system from bottom can be quite literally summed up as “Okay, time for me to get up now”. That’s the type of physical monster we’re dealing with here.
Not only that, but Gane's opponents so far weren’t able to exploit Gane’s lack of defensive system at multiple ranges past his control of distance, I would still consider this an untested area of Gane’s fighting style, and as such I’d veer on the side of caution and remain skeptical for now. “I’m longer and I jab and I kick” was good enough for a while, but will it be enough going forward? Will it be enough against Lewis? Granted, Derrick Lewis is not some kinda masterful counterpuncher that corrals people into carefully-lain traps with wit and guile. He just gets pieced up a bunch and then unloads with massive blows, but he’s been winning this way for years. Not only that, but he’s been improving at doing exactly that, which is a scary and hilarious thought. Derrick Lewis is learning how to counterpunch.
All in all, my feelings towards Gane are mixed. I’d be very pleasantly surprised if he shows marked improvement in the areas I have outlined above, and I am not discounting the possibility that his skillset may prove to be enough to outpoint Lewis, who is pretty much the farthest thing from a “round-winner” you can find in MMA. That said, I am not sold yet. While Lewis does not have much of a gas tank, like, at all, and Gane is a very strong body kicker, Gane’s style of fighting is also very energy-intensive — especially for a man who is as large as him. Gane does not seem to possess any genuinely hurting weapons outside of the body kick, and while body kicking Lewis into taking up crossfit may be a viable path to victory, it also opens Gane up rather dangerously to Lewis’ atom bomb overhands and hooks, same deal with rangier straight kicks to the gut, which is something many fighters tend to get lazy with and just start throwing them willy-nilly, forgetting about range and setups.
Then again, Gane may well prove to be tough enough to survive at least a couple of those shots, and once you cross that 200lb threshold pretty much any punch you throw will hurt, so Lewis getting TKO’d off a particularly hard body kick and a flurry isn’t out of the question. But the safest way for Cyril to fight here might be to just sit at range and throw the occasional jab and a low kick, and if anything I trust Gane to make the fight incredibly boring and win a comfortable but uninteresting decision. Otherwise, Derrick Lewis by KO.
Ed Gallo: I have no new analysis to contribute, but I’m feeling confident that Gane by comfortable but uninteresting decision is a strong possibility.
Dan Albert: Gane may have blatantly ripped off the Jackson-Winkeljohn striking manifesto in order to bamboozle the big bad men meta to such an extent that you even wonder if you’re watching the same weight division, but I’ll give him credit for trying to win in ways other heavyweights just aren’t. Gane epitomizes control and the premises to which he makes that control happen is through his jab and body kicking game. My peers have already covered most of what needs to be said about Gane’s effectiveness, though, as my fellow analyst, Feno Sky, once pointed out to me: Gane is often tough for heavyweights because he is willing to elongate exchanges and punctuate them. In this regard, fighting Gane means being able to do things with him or punishing some of his mistakes. Derrick Lewis is arguably the most dangerous finisher in the division and is deceptively quick on the trigger, though Lewis’ one-note, one-shot waiting game means that he’s only likely to get his wins if the other fighter messes up or he gets some arbitrary read to end their life. Gane’s looping overhand means he’s liable to be countered on a level change - a tactic that Lewis tends to go for. That said, it’s difficult to imagine Lewis winning unless Gane makes too large an error here. I’m personally not too sold on Gane’s abilities and poise when he isn’t in control of a fight, Lewis is not the opponent to likely test that. And, once you consider how Lewis is a magnet for a body-centric attack, his chances of winning decrease. This may be a decent litmus test to prep Gane for an Ngannou fight down the road and, although Lewis has a window, it isn’t exactly the most open. And I don’t really like to bet on those kinds of situations, Heavyweight or not. Gane by 3rd round body attack TKO.
Ben Kohn: Iggy’s dissertation covered pretty much everything. The holes in Gane’s game are there to be exploited, and Derrick Lewis does possess the ability and few tools to do so. Gane’s lack of craft in the pocket will be a major point of danger for him here. Lewis may act like a lumbering idiot, but he’s both aware of what/who he is as a fighter and embraces it, for better or worse. Gane will need to be flawless from range, pot-shotting from a distance and refusing to engage past that first layer for the most part. Lots of kicks to the body, long range strikes, frame, and separate. There’s no reason for him to tie up or grapple with Lewis, who’s surprisingly decent. For Lewis, he will need to try and time Gane’s entries with his hands and match that leap in, colliding with him and trying to catch Gane when he’s in the middle space, where his defenses are at their worst.
Despite Lewis’ terrifying persona, he’s not actually the most durable guy, particularly to the body. Gane isn’t a powerful puncher, but his kicks do damage. Gane kicking the body up from range, and keeping as much space as possible behind him to escape any rushes from Lewis, is the most likely avenue to victory. It’s also the most likely outcome, barring the flash KO by Lewis. It’s not a guarantee though, because it’s HW, but Cyril Gane by Unanimous Decision or late TKO through attrition.
Mateusz Fenrych: For as much as MMA above 155lbs still lacks the depth to really harbour ‘gatekeepers’, Lewis has become something of a gatekeeper, and for what it’s worth I’m quite excited to see whether Gane can pass the test. I know this is a hard-analysis site primarily, but allow me some colour here; there is a great deal of narrative juice to be squeezed from the idea of the shiny new knight testing his skills against the big bad (Black) Beast. Sure, heavyweights mostly bad and all that, but the sense of peril one feels when watching someone face off against Derrick Lewis is palpable, and remember, he has beaten quote-unquote good fighters by managing to cash in on the ‘it only takes one’ gambit - Volkov and Blaydes will attest to that. Both were soundly kicking his lumbering arse before he sparked them the fuck out in spectacular and sudden fashion. And indeed, so was Travis Browne, and this example provides a tidy link to one of Gane’s main paths to victory, already fielded by my learned colleagues.
Body kicks. Lots and lots and lots of bodykicks. Gane can do them and Gane must do them. I also believes he has the ability to stick to a gameplan; he at least has the natural disinclination to engage in wild brawls that could end with him on queer street. Gane has speed, a good jab, good kicks and a gas tank. If he can also reproduce an iota of the patience and methodical application that an ancient and already fragile Hunto did to Lewis, he should be able to win relatively easily. Gane TKO 4.
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
Sriram: Seems like Aldo’s been through this drill three times in his three bantamweight fights -- this one wouldn’t be particularly competitive, but for his recent and more defined difficulties with longer fights and with the defense that made him so terrific in his prime. For what it’s worth, Aldo has somehow managed to look like a top-7 bantam despite that, which is shockingly impressive. In his win over Marlon “Chito” Vera, a kicky pace-pusher who’s completely indestructible but not hard to find, Aldo did a very good job working around his limitations -- putting less burden on his previously-impeccable reflexes and speed by pressuring to draw out attacks, and hanging onto Vera’s back when the pace got to be too much. Munhoz is probably more difficult to stall out late, and more intent upon pressuring himself -- but heavily relying on low kicks against Aldo is probably still not an easy way to beat him, and Munhoz isn’t primarily the sort of fast straight-puncher who puts a great deal of load on Aldo’s reactions (more of a hooking blitzer, although quite a clever one, but doing that on a longer fighter with strong defensive instincts is a rough ask). Munhoz’s defense on the inside has been exploited by strong highguard-rippers such as Jimmie Rivera (and Aldo showed in the Mendes rematch that he was that guy in his prime), and Aldo’s bodywork should be a consistent find as a result.
Ultimately, though, I’m given too much pause by Aldo’s condition. Maybe I’m waiting on a drastic further fall-off that won’t happen for a while, but between his mileage and a cut to 135 that seemed tremendously inadvisable until he did it several times, trusting Aldo to show up exactly as good as last time feels like a gamble. Aldo should have Munhoz covered in every respect until he’s tired, but regardless of how much he’s in control, he has dropped off in each of his 135 fights -- and Munhoz knows his advantages well, he doesn’t stop pushing at any point, and he seems nearly impossible to even hurt. Against Edgar, Munhoz actually looked quite solid at flicking out constant and noncommittal volume on the front foot - using the jab to score and draw out exploitable counter responses, as well as a consistent front kick at range -- and while Aldo made some of the sport's best jabbers look downright reckless for trying it, being forced into huge reactions and constant trades by an unspeakably durable and conditioned pressurer isn't any easier when you're older and cutting more.
Aldo scraping the second round and living through the third seems very much in play, and Aldo beating a true top-5 135er right now would be one of the most unassailably impressive things I'll have seen in MMA. Unfortunately, I think Munhoz gives Aldo all the circumstances to look amazing for as long as he can, and takes over hard when he’s done too much for his own good. Munhoz via TKO3.
Ed: Absolute banger. Pedro Munhoz is one of the most offensively oriented fighters in the sport, and he has all the tools and attributes to make it work. He doesn’t get tired, his chin is iron, he’s fearless, and possesses decent power. He leverages this approach with attritional work, low kicking constantly to the outside and kicking straight to the body through the inside. Munhoz is definitely on the slower side at 135, but given enough time - he’ll get his man. I thought he deserved the win over Frankie Edgar and should be considered among the top 5 in this division.
Much to my surprise, after 17 years as a pro and following the questionable decision to drop down to 135, Jose Aldo is still a threat to elite fighters. He gave Petr Yan his toughest test in the UFC, and is still holding it together enough to back off rising contenders like Marlon “Chito” Vera. Aldo historically struggled with the cut to 145, so it was quite a shock to see him stringing together solid rounds against the top of the insanely stacked bantamweight division. Outside of his excellent performance against Petr Yan, however, there is a big drop off after about 8 minutes into the fight.
Without taking conditioning or fading into consideration, I love this matchup for Aldo. He can work his jab to intercept Munhoz’s pressure, attack the body ruthlessly against the high guard, and his kick defense is some of the best in the history of the sport - perhaps the best. I expect him to score consistently and avoid most of Munhoz’s offense in the early going. The problem is - with the pace Munhoz pushes, it seems a cardio cliff is inevitable. To make matters worse, Munhoz is very difficult to hurt or back off, meaning Aldo might not be able to buy himself breaks with effective offense, like he did vs. Chito. Picking this fight is a gamble, you have to make an assumption about just how long Aldo can keep up a solid counter-fighting performance before Munhoz gains the advantage. I think he can win two rounds, and I’m picking Jose Aldo by decision.
Iggy: Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz are both 34 years old. Jose Aldo has 36 fights under his belt, with 29 wins and 7 losses. Pedro Munhoz has 25, with 19 wins and 5 losses. If you want a more illustrative example of the difference between chronological age and fighting age, you’d be hard-pressed to find one.
I suppose Aldo’s been relegated quite firmly into a role of a gatekeeper for elites a long time ago now, and the sheer fact that he’s been doing a very good job of it long after getting knocked off his throne is a testament to his incredible skill. That said, now that he’s older, and at a lower weight class, there is now a hard limit on what he can accomplish in fights. Dropping down to Bantamweight still seems like a baffling decision to me but I suppose it came with certain benefits: Aldo possesses a notable size advantage over many BWs and while his shots lost a great deal of their speed, they now carry a certain amount of heft that is able to give many elite BWs enough pause for Aldo to have some room to breathe.
There are several things that concern me with this matchup:
Perdo Munhoz is tough as nails.
Perdo Munhoz never stops coming forward.
Pedro Munhoz is a very respectable hitter.
Aldo had his fair share of fights where he was able to diffuse forward-movers, no matter how powerful or tough, fairly comfortably. I am in agreement with Ed and Sriram here: the sheer mileage on Aldo’s body, the weight cut, and his declining speed promise to make this fight a lot closer than it might have been a few years earlier, and put Aldo and Munhoz on more even ground than it would’ve been some time ago.
That said, Munhoz is not exactly the slickest operator out there. He is skilled, but he is not a defensive maestro: while Aldo’s style is not geared towards efficient throwaway volume, he has shown to be able to pull smart adjustments out of his big bag of tricks even now, 17 years deep into his career. He has pressured Chito Vera very effectively to gain an early lead and then grind it out late. There is an avenue through which Aldo can curtail the cardio handicap: he can walk Munhoz down by blasting him early and hard to put the threat of his power in Pedro’s mind, and continue peppering him with non-committal strikes, work around his basic guard, mixing in hard punches to the body and to the head. Volume work is obviously out of the question for Aldo if he wants to last past 8 minutes, but he is skilled enough to leverage his size and power in a more efficient way to do enough damage for Munhoz’s offensive potency to be curtailed early on. Relying less on reactive head movement for defense and more on an active guard and punch & clutch, start/stop style of striking may also benefit him immensely here.
That said, it’s hard to predict what sort of approach any given fighter will take coming into the fight, and it’s a crapshoot to predict a fighter to fight in a specific way based on what we think he should be able to do. It’s entirely reasonable to expect a solid effort from Aldo in the first couple rounds only for Munhoz to finally overcome Jose’s fading gas tank and break through the aging legend’s defenses to unload with hard, high-octane offense. That said, Jose Aldo’s skillset is such that, provided he hasn’t slowed down even more — and it’s a fairly reasonable thing to be wary of — he should be able to build enough of an early lead to run away with a decision in the end.
One other thing: Pedro’s style should naturally lead him into pocket exchanges with Jose Aldo if he wishes to secure his win condition, and Aldo likes stopping people in their tracks with incredibly hard punches the instant they get to mid-range. Pedro Munhoz is not very fast, and does not have the sharpest reflexes in the world. They’re good, but they’re not lightning-quick. Again, Jose Aldo has slowed down a lot but he should still be able to pick his shots and find moments where he can deck Munhoz as hard as he can. Munhoz is tough, but is he that tough? I guess we shall see.
It’s hard to say. Aldo should be a tough test for Pedro Munhoz but he might just be shop-worn enough for that not to end up being the case, and Munhoz will just spark him the fuck out. Pedro Munhoz should be a really tough one for Aldo but his depth and breadth of skill are so vast he may just about pull another miracle out of his ass. You know what? Fuck it, Jose Aldo TKO 3.
Dan: This one has a lot of intrigue for a number of reasons. In many ways, this is the test for Pedro Munhoz’s adaptability and attritional potency versus a difficult stylistic matchup who has all the tools to exploit and deny his game. That said, like most bouts for Jose Aldo at this point, it’s just as much a battle with time. The main points to consider are ranges and pace. Munhoz may fight at a relentless pace and has effective ideas cutting his man off, but his problem is consistently that he can be forced into set ranges where he is more limited. Munhoz wants engagements and he often makes them happen with an unwavering desire to delimb his opponents, whereupon he can then club them with hooks. The kicking game is instrumental in helping him deny spatial and pocket disadvantages. However, he still may need a bit more to work with versus Aldo, who still excels at shutting down opponent’s positional and striking entries. Although Aldo is not going to replicate the door-closing output Aljamain Sterling used to keep Munhoz at a restricted range, he does have the footwork that Aljo did not have. In short, if many of the same principles of control Aldo utilized versus Petr Yan two years ago are still feasible, then he has a very good chance to deny Munhoz’s assault. Yan, one of the sport’s most versatile fighters and adapters, had to apply multiple routes and tactics to keep Aldo from pivoting out of range or getting countered to the body. Munhoz is likely to keep Aldo working, though without more variety (i.e. a body-head attack, work behind straighter punches), he may find himself running out of time. I think this fight will answer a good deal of questions about how deep of a fighter Pedro Munhoz is as a strategist and tactician respectively - especially if he wants to use his trademark attrition to win here. If Aldo shows up in decent enough form, this will be worth watching. I’ll take the risk and pick Jose Aldo to win a unanimous decision.
Ben: The dynamics of the matchup are laid out. Aldo’s skills are very well tailored to shutting Munhoz down. His kicking defense, body work, and footwork are all problems Munhoz needs to solve to overwhelm Aldo….or they would be if Aldo’s tank wasn’t empty by about halfway through the fight.
The problem here is that, unless Aldo can nab a finish (my guess would be through some huge body shots under the high guard of Munhoz), he’s going to be slowing down against someone who will only increase the pace and pressure as he slows. Something else to note is that Munhoz’s grappling is a problem. Aldo won’t be able to rely on having a grappling advantage over him in the same way he did over Chito Vera. Munhoz is one of the best scramblers in the sport, and his submission snatching ability is up there too.
It’s quite possible we see Aldo try and replicate the gameplan of utilizing his wrestling/grappling to ride out the fight once he tires, but I’m not sure a gassed Aldo can do that with Munhoz. I don’t know if Munhoz can submit Aldo, but I think that 3rd round gets very dicey. A TKO in the 3rd for Munhoz on top isn’t out of the realm of possibility. That being said, I’m not sure if Munhoz can do it in just 15 minutes, so, Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision with some scary moments. I can also see a draw if Munhoz gets a 10-8 3rd round.
Mateusz: Squeaky-bum time for all Aldo fans once again.
As mentioned in great detail above, Aldo still has all the tools to, in theory, make good work of Munhoz. Leg kicks, kick defence, excellent cage-craft, defensive footwork against a foot-slow opponent and some of the best upper body movement of any fighter still out there. But he is after all, still operating at a very diminished capacity from his peak, and yes, I’m going to mention it too. His cardio sucks now, very much.
The body shot, and crippling leg kicks are an obvious route to victory; Munhoz is heavy on the front leg and not quick to move it out of harm’s way, and that short stocky body is often open while he keeps a high guard around his stupid-big head. But it seems more and more these days that Aldo is skirting the drop-off. In days gone past he could maintain a fierce edge for five rounds, a lá Mendes II, or keep on his elusive bike for five rounds, a lá Edgar II, or even blast a teak-tough, huge opponent out in short order, a lá Stephens. But his fights against Vera and Yan, although he won the former, not only suggest but shout from the rooftops that that physicality is long gone. Munhoz would be a brutal matchup to find out that you can’t maintain power long enough to keep a mini-golem off for long enough to recover, and I have a horrible feeling that Munhoz is going to be able to attrite his way to a TKO3.
Michael Chiesa vs. Vicente Luque
Ed: I’m not going to think too hard about it, but I like this matchup for Luque. He’s a pretty solid grappler himself, he’s a nasty counter puncher, and his kicking game will allow him to score from the outside. Chiesa has dumbed down his approach on the feet and is looking to punch and clutch as soon and often as possible (which I like for him, honestly), but that’s going to be more difficult against someone who goes to the body and can wait on you to lead. I could see this being a competitive fight where Chiesa does get Luque down and has his moments, but I also feel that Luque getting inside the arms and cracking Chiesa on the chin is extremely likely. Luque round 2 TKO.
Sriram: Largely on the same page. Luque is Hooft's tight functionalism at a fairly high level -- without the Burns wrestling threat, but compensating with tighter form and stronger counter work. I was very worried about him after the unnecessarily messy Price rematch, but piecing up Randy Brown and Tyron Woodley fairly cleanly showed he has the same strengths and weaknesses he used to -- a tremendous counter left hook + cross counter, absurdly heavy hands, and a static defensive shell mostly subsidized by the other two things. I'm given a bit of pause by not knowing a lot about him as a clincher, and the little I do know being from his loss to Leon Edwards, but Chiesa isn't the same sort of offensive nor positional threat from there -- and I think he's mostly going to have trouble getting there.
Chiesa is a fairly inefficient and uneasy mover on the outside, he isn't comfortable in exchanges, and his 5 round win over Magny seemed to exhaust him a bit through the later stages (bailed out by Magny only being threatening in the area that Chiesa was much better in). I don't think Luque has much issue kicking him for free like he did the last tall guy he fought, the pocket exchanges should be one-way traffic, and that danger should make it tough for Chiesa to enter the clinch unless Luque consents to it for some reason (the usual Magny-magic, basically). Luque does have a very real front-choke threat, and his fights with Pettis and even Masvidal showed that Chiesa isn't necessarily impenetrable as a defensive grappler; I don't think this is a fight where Chiesa is automatically safe and winning in any grappling context, unlike Chiesa's others at 170, so a need to set up entries and get to clean positions probably forces him into exchanges he can't afford with the division's biggest bomber. Luque via KO3.
Dan: Chiesa has a tightrope to walk here and he’s mostly benefited at Welterweight from fighting opponents he can easily overpower or not offer too many threats outside of the body lock. It might be a tad bit reductionist, though Luque’s best offense is often his best defense. Chiesa needs to make it a priority to one, not let Luque work his game on the frontfoot, and, two, be able to secure tie-ups (i.e. the body lock) as soon as possible. Luque’s limited defensive responses on the backfoot ensure that he has a ceiling in this division - and exploiting his basic high guard cover ups through aggressive volume can give Chiesa some leeway here. Problem is, in short, if Chiesa cannot get to Luque, he will get check hook countered and enter exchanges with arguably the most dangerous puncher in the division. Chiesa’s own inconsistent footwork and telegraphed offense means he’s liable to have a ceiling in this division too. I’ve not much else to add, though winning here, barring a quick finish on the ground, means Chiesa has to be safe in some regard for extended periods of time during this fight and he has never really been that fighter. And I’m not sure this is a fight where he can’t afford to not take risks to win. Luque KO2.
Ben: Luque is one of the most fun fighters in MMA today, there’s no doubt about it. His power, toughness, and grappling/scrambling ability always makes for some damn fun fights. That being said, he’s also got issues that could lead to him losing this fight. Despite a clear advantage in striking experience, craft, and power, his style leaves him in a position to get taken down by Chiesa.Chiesa’s clinch game and takedowns are a step above most fighters, and his back taking ability is among the best in MMA. Luque’s plodding style and high guard defense have led to him getting clinched up with and taken down by multiple, less skillful grapplers than Chiesa (such as Derrick Krantz and Randy Brown. In addition, he prefers to come forward and push his opponents back to the fence, but he can also be overwhelmed out of the gate by a fast start. Chiesa coming out hot, pushing him back, and getting him to cover up high will give him the clinch entries he wants, and from there score his takedowns.
Finally, Luque is usually content to give his back when trying to stand up, likely due to his confidence in his grappling ability. Against a dangerous back taker like Chiesa, that could lead to disaster. Submitting Luque would be an extremely impressive feat, and it’s not one we’ve seen happen in a long time.I’m not sure Chiesa will get the submission, but I do expect him to be able to find the openings to clinch up with Luque and get the win. Michael Chiesa via Unanimous Decision
Bobby Green vs. Rafael Fiziev
Ed: Sick. Awesome. So cool.
Ben: This will be a lot of fun while it lasts, but Fiziev is a better striker, much more physically gifted, and I think this looks a lot like the Poirier fight where Green is caught clean trying to be the slickster. Doesn’t help that Green is quite the elder statesman at this point. Rafael Fiziev by KO, round 1.
Mateusz: This seems like typical UFC circus cruelty. Can’t find a dangerous fighter a cool fight, just give him an elder statesman to slaughter to keep his name out there for the time being. Bobby Green does some fun stuff but c’mon. Fiziev KO1
Sriram: On the same page as Mateusz with how the matchup has been conceived, but I think Green could be interesting enough here. It isn’t really a matter of his striking in itself — I don’t know how well his game is built to deal with a strong and versatile kicker since he’s fairly side-on to enable the shoulder roll, and at least one very potent and skilled combination-puncher in Dustin Poirier has found his way through it before — but if there’s an issue we’ve seen with Fiziev, it’s that he tends to let his opponents back into the fight after ruining them for about 10 minutes. He doesn’t fall apart at all, but lesser competition such as Alex White and Marc Diakiese have lasted to that point to make the fight seem a bit closer than it was. There’s also a reason that Bobby Green has been to more contentious split decisions than anyone else — he’s very durable, he’s well-conditioned, and he doesn’t have massive glaring weaknesses that let even strong veterans such as Francisco Trinaldo just run him over. Between a wrestling base/a strong clinch/consistent pecking on the outside, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Green picked up the third once Fiziev starts to flag a bit, but Green is also getting older and those athletic traits are no guarantee — and Fiziev should convincingly take the early rounds off Green, as the much bigger hitter with the tools to dissuade his volume and batter him at basically every range. I’ll make the assumption that Green is still there completely, and go Fiziev via UD.