UFC 254: Staff Picks
Photo courtesy of the UFC
The annual sighting of the Eagle is set to occur at UFC 254, an event that was originally intended to be far deeper (the return of Islam Makhachev and Zabit Magomedsharipov among those cancelled) but has settled into being a solid card capped with a brilliant main and co-main event. In a fall tradition, the great Khabib Nurmagomedov looks to defeat the final massive threat to his throne at 155, the interim champion — in 2019 it was Dustin Poirier who’d proven a cut above the rest but a cut below the king, and 2020 sees the Dagestani flagbearer face a renewed Justin Gaethje. Gaethje captured his chance at Nurmagomedov with an uncomfortable beating of Tony Ferguson in May, and now has an opportunity to bring his new focus and style — and the backing of a brilliant team, and the violence of no one else in the sport — to a champion that has looked as untouchable as any in the modern MMA landscape. With a win, Gaethje would secure the undisputed UFC lightweight championship from the clutches of a monster who has spent much of his UFC tenure as the uncrowned best and the rest as the obvious best — and for Nurmagomedov, defeating Gaethje would not just essentially clear the division of threats and net him one more impressive win, but would also bring him one step closer to a coveted 30-0 record among the elite of the sport.
In the co-main event, all-time great middleweight Robert Whittaker continues his return — in the shortest turnaround he’s had in years, “The Reaper” looks to answer the questions left over from his loss to Israel Adesanya and his subsequent win over Darren Till, and earn another shot at the belt that he’d won in impressive fashion and seemed destined to hold for longer than he did. His opponent, on the other hand, has proven to be the ultimate spoiler — Jared Cannonier’s middleweight run has seen him thrice be the enemy on the road, and thrice come out an emphatic victor. After brutalizing the solid New Yorker Dave Branch in Madison Square Garden, finishing the Brazilian legend Anderson Silva in Rio de Janeiro, and putting Nordic contender Jack Hermansson away in Copenhagen, Cannonier has set his eye upon the middleweight belt — and Robert Whittaker is his last obstacle to contending for it.
The Fight Site’s MMA team brings you an exhaustive breakdown of the top two fights, and some thoughts on the other interesting bouts on the card.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje
Sriram Muralidaran: I really want to pick Justin Gaethje in this fight, and I’m quite aggrieved that I feel I can’t. It isn’t to say that I’d be surprised if he won, because I definitely wouldn’t -- Gaethje is not only a certifiably elite lightweight, he’s a certifiably elite pound-for-pound talent, and he’s hit all the right notes in the lead-up. The performance against Tony Ferguson showed a tier of tactical discipline and strategic versatility that’s genuinely rare, he’s shown to understand the value of footwork and ringcraft in a fight with the lightweight king, and he’s brought in welterweight champion and superlative cage-wrestler Kamaru Usman to emulate Khabib -- which in a perfect world would leave him overqualified. In addition, Gaethje’s smashing counterpunching, his devastating kicking game (which Khabib was vulnerable to against McGregor, to an extent), his soundness as a pressurer and as an outfighter in terms of ring position, and his bruising clinch all represent forms of resistance that Nurmagomedov hasn’t necessarily faced before -- and writing this, I feel like I’m almost talking myself out of the pick, because there’s a universe where Gaethje puts his skillset together in the right way to make Nurmagomedov look impotent, to punish him for his jab and crush him for trying to move forward and put Gaethje on the cage.
That said, while Gaethje’s wrestling background is quite solid, we’ve seen before that cage-wrestling is often a different story, and Gaethje would have to fight either a perfect fight or a short one to keep that factor out of play. Nurmagomedov is brilliant as a cage wrestler, and Gaethje is simply an unknown, so that’s a quite difficult thing to bank on in Gaethje’s favor. The other big concern is what happened to Dustin Poirier -- another A+ banger (as Gaethje himself found) whose performance against Max Holloway was absolutely stunning, but who fought exactly the wrong fight when faced with Nurmagomedov’s mythos. Khabib is not a reactive shot threat nor a particularly efficient open-space finisher, but essentially every fighter he’s faced has treated him that way, and Gaethje’s increased preference for letting his opponent come to him seems more liable to be adapted badly to the Russian than Gaethje’s previous incarnation of “pressure at all costs” -- as much as I loved Gaethje's ringcraft against Ferguson, my concern is that Gaethje might outsmart himself and take a riskier path than he has to, and he has no room to fail at being Eddie Alvarez here. Johnson-era Gaethje might do his thing and prove too dumb to fail at creating his favored sort of exchange, but current Gaethje won't necessarily have the stamina to put his brain to work if he has an early lapse at navigating unfamiliarly thin margins -- fighting on the backfoot against someone who can physically push to the cage if Gaethje even gets close to being backed up, and whose top game is truly unique in both exhaustive and exhausting efficiency.
Until someone faces a control-wrestler like Khabib and shows that their striking isn’t compromised -- the way AbdulAziz Abdulvakhabov did against Ali Bagov, for instance, which convinced me that Abdulvakhabov would take Khabib out -- there’s always a risk they look like Poirier, stiff and petrified of the takedown when they looked like the best in the world against every other archetype. I don’t think Nurmagomedov is invincible or near it, and Gaethje really does have the skillset to make his life miserable (especially if he pressures), but it takes a bit too much presumption to pick him outright. With a heavy heart, Nurmagomedov by TKO4.
Aiden Hayes: As Sriram said, Gaethje has plenty of the makings you would like to see in someone who could potentially beat Khabib. Whether Gaethje pressures, which I do not think should be his only strategy, or outfights, his footwork (specifically, his use of cross-steps and L-steps in the Ferguson fight), pocket acumen, relentlessness, urgency, striking defense, and solid first layer of wrestling defense are all aspects that could give Khabib problems. The problem with strictly pressuring, to me at least, is that we haven’t seen Gaethje be able to pace himself over 5 rounds when he only pressures and is allowed to play his A-game with little resistance. Adding in spouts of wrestling defense will work to fatigue Gaethje as well, because even though Khabib’s reactive TD’s aren’t great when he is being pressured and I don’t think he can get Gaethje down in open space, his single is getting better and better at forcing some length in wrestling exchanges by catching guys as they step-in or by drawing them into it. Khabib’s striking defense isn’t spectacular, but it is functional and very janky, which could give Gaethje some trouble early on when trying to figure it out (we saw Poirier doing this). In a similar way, Khabib’s ringcraft has shown some inklings of nuance, esp. in the 1st round vs McGregor, so he is not as easy to track down as he was in his early career.. Additionally, although pressure can force boxing and kicking exchanges that Gaethje is much better than Khabib in, I really do not know too much about Khabib’s chin. It’s definitely good, but how good? I can’t imagine it’s Tony Ferguson level, but I imagine it’s good enough to take a few from Gaethje. Can only pressuring work for him? Sure, especially with a coach like Wittman behind him. Maybe he stuffs all of Khabib’s single-legs from open space (he does have quick hips), avoids getting pulled in and turned to the cage, works the body, and just kicks him up and counters him at a sustainable pace, but overall, I think a combination of measured pressure + outfighting (a bit like the Ferguson fight, but with more pressure) will be the move for Gaethje.
Gaethje’s footwork in the Ferguson fight was splendid. He prevented Tony from lining up his entries by forcing him to constantly turn and angle, using cross-steps and L-steps. When Tony did commit, Gaethje planted his feet and countered the life out of him with his counter lead hook on entries and a cross counter. Gaethje also mixed in kicks from range. Against Khabib, whose pressure is relentless but not necessarily as nuanced as say an RDA, these same tactics will be key when Gaethje outfights. Forcing Khabib to turn using footwork to prevent him from lining up his driving double, using rear-hand feints and kicking to freeze Khabib before re-circling out, mixing in body work as he dips/weaves into the pocket, countering on every entry with a lead hook to herd him away, mixing in pressure, etc. The problem with outfighting is that while Gaethje’s footwork is tremendous and breaks his opponent’s straight lines of attack, he does not use it much to get off the cage when he is shoved behind the black lines. What I mean by that is he moves around his opponents, not around the cage. It worked vs Ferguson, but Ferguson eased up on his “swarming” pressure due to the counters, but with the grappling threat that Khabib possesses, will it work vs Khabib? Upon re-watch, McGregor showed many of these same footwork tactics to move around Nate Diaz that Gaethje did vs Ferguson, but he still could not find many opportunities to get off the cage vs Khabib. Part of that was lack of urgency, part of it was McGregor not having near as good outside footwork as Gaethje, but it is definitely something to note. Will Gaethje be able to punish Khabib’s entries with counters, stuff a few takedowns, break his line of attack constantly, kick his legs in, and beat him up boxing wise while he out-fights? It’s definitely a possibility, but I really do not know if I can trust his ringcraft to hold for an extended period of time, esp. not over 5 rounds. Even if you fight 99% of the way to perfection and force Khabib to turn a million times and don’t give him an inch to line up a shot, Khabib will get you at that 1% and punish you for it.
The biggest factor to me is that I have absolutely no real clue about Gaethje’s cage wrestling or wrestling defense past his incredibly energy inefficient scrambling and that makes it hard to pick Gaethje with any confidence here. I think Gaethje will do a good job of herding Khabib into his leg kicks or check hook/cross counter on the backfoot and will use his footwork to prevent Khabib from lining up his takedowns, but I do not trust his ringcraft to hold over 5 and expect Khabib to fully exploit that with driving doubles + his infamous cage wrestling and top game. I think Gaethje’s pressuring game will give Khabib some good resistance in the form of kicks, body work after he weaves in, and a jab, but I think Khabib will find some openings to go for his single, which probably won’t get Gaethje down, but will wear on his gas-tank or force the clinch. Not without adversity, Khabib Nurmagomedov SUB3
Iggy: There’s a ton of variables and unknowns with this fight but lack of data doesn’t necessarily imply damning or bad data for either fighter.
That being said, Gaethje’s been my #1 pick to beat Nurmagomedov for the longest time, and it still remains the case for me now. Justin, out of all Lightweight contenders, has shown the highest level of coachability and self-awareness, and Trevor Wittman has demonstrated some of the best gameplanning in the game to date. This is still a winning combination, and despite all the misgivings that I share with my colleagues regarding a Justin pick, I feel like I have to stick to my guns. There is of course the danger of overrating Justin’s performance against Tony, who in many respects is absolutely nothing like Khabib. What makes picking the winner so hard is that neither Justin nor Khabib actually fought anyone who approaches either of them stylistically or attribute-wise.
There are a lot of assumptions to make about this fight, and that is fine. A common and justified assumption is that Justin’s new style is just how he’s going to fight at all times from now on. The reason for that is redefining your game so completely so late into your career is incredibly mentally taxing: old habits die hard, especially habits that are hardwired into your nervous system. The second assumption people make is that Justin’s newfound style will surely somehow backfire. That’s only partially true: it’s arguably less foolproof because of the general assumption that simply going all out on Khabib is the way to go (which is in itself a stretch, see Aiden’s misgivings WRT all-out pressure), and that it plays into Khabib’s game to a significant extent. That’s true but going on the backfoot is not playing into all of Khabib’s strengths, especially if you demonstrate good ring generalship.
Of course, the goal here is to get the dynamics of the fight right, not necessarily the outcome itself, and there’s a noticeable lack of quantifiable data about this fight, so naturally I’m going to have to make some assumptions of my own. I’m going to go out on a limb and assume Trevor and Justin worked out a way to combine his newfound discipline and measure with his old pressuring ability. Remember: pressure is not the art of going forward, it’s the art of using your presence as a threat, keeping your opponent on a constant hair-trigger where he has to keep all his attacks on ready, exhausting them mentally and physically. Justin fought off the backfoot against Tony but the threat of his hitting power kept Tony from upping his volume and snowballing. In a way, Justin still acted as a pressure fighter — the pressure of being countered every time Tony crossed a certain distance left him unable to commit to any meaningful attacks.
To quote my friend Ed Gallo, Khabib likes to attack from space, so space is the enemy here. Assuming Justin’s figured out a way to pressure intelligently and put the pace on his opponent without actually increasing his own, now we have a way to instill a certain unease in Khabib and make him commit to a less-than-ideal entry. Gaethje’s scrambles are energy inefficient, that is true, but he’s still incredibly physically strong and dynamic. Khabib’s bodylock threat is potent but Justin is very violent in clinch exchanges. So that’s two dangers somewhat rectified, and that puts Khabib and Justin’s gas tanks on about equal ground. Remember: Khabib’s takedown attacks are also incredibly energy-inefficient, especially from space. Also keep in mind that Khabib spent almost half a round trying to take Conor McGregor down and establish his control, and Conor didn’t exactly go about defending the shot correctly, wasting precious time trying to slap Khabib upside the ear instead of fighting grips. Even trying to give him a swirly would have been more productive.
Khabib is the type of fighter that will take a mile if you give him an inch, but his level of comfortability on the feet is still incredibly lacking, as well as his level of comfortability when being hit or when being put on the defensive. Literally every single fighter who decided to hit Khabib in the midsection was able to do so for free. A sloppy, half-slapping, half-flailing noodle of a punch from Dustin (admittedly a very heavy-handed puncher) wobbled Khabib, who tenses up and spazzes out when presented with a striking threat. His recovery is very impressive but he can be hurt, and if Justin brings anything to this fight is willingness and desire to hurt his opponents bad at every opportunity. Khabib almost always gets flat-footed whenever he commits to an attack on the feet which leaves him open to Justin’s baseball bat low kicks — in fact, that is Gaethje’s #1 trigger to attack the legs.
Jank is a fine way to make your opponent hesitate if all else fails so Khabib got that going for him. Those of you who sparred against jumpy novices might understand what I mean by that. The counterargument to this is that Tony Ferguson was also plenty janky in his own way and threw a certain assortment of just downright wacky stuff at Justin, to which Gaethje’s only response was to take an angle and blast him in the face. What Khabib got going for him is the oft-discussed aura of a champion. His opponents frequently suffer from bad decision-making because they fight the idea of Khabib, who is frequently portrayed as an inevitable all-terrain wrestler/grappler, and that simply isn’t real. Khabib’s game is almost exclusively reliant on cage wrestling in order to get to top control, and Justin has stated multiple times that he is well aware of that and he intends to avoid getting stuck along the fence at all costs. Khabib fought fighters who were often either fearful and overcorrected with their adjustments or were cowed into passivity by the sheer prospect of fighting Nurmagomedov, or fighters who were fearless but didn't have a clue on how to actually fight him. I trust Justin not to fall into these traps. In fact, out of all challengers, Justin is the one I trust the most to fight his fight.
Conversely, of course, Justin’s eagerness to jump at every offensive opportunity is what may cause him to have a lapse in judgement, forget where he is in the cage, and subsequently waste precious energy trying to squeeze out of Khabib’s suffocating grasp. Push comes to shove, the look of the fight will be decided in the opening minute, and the onus is on Justin to fight the right kind of fight. For whatever it’s worth, I trust Justin to bring the right blend of discipline and violence into that octagon come Saturday night. Gaethje KO4.
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: This is my most awaited MMA fight of the year. I am a huge fan of Justin and Khabib. I know Khabib’s defensive striking, and the fact that people always fight a bad fight against him frustrates some of my colleagues but I can’t help but being a massive fan of him as a fighter. I love the way he carries himself and how competitive he is. I could write a 10 000 words article on how much I love both men here. I consider Khabib the greatest lightweight of all time and if he beats Gaethje he’d be super high in my all time great list pound for pound. Two years ago I said that Gaethje was the best lightweight in the world. We’ve all been waiting for years to see that matchup. But during those two years, Justin actually changed his fighting style. Turning into a beautiful counter puncher, improving his footwork and composure. Beautiful performance over Tony Ferguson but looking back at it, Tony is tailor made for Justin, Dustin and Conor to shine against him. If I love the confidence and serenity that emanates this “new” Gaethje, I can’t stop thinking that I was more confident picking the Justin we saw against Dustin or Michael Johnson to beat Khabib. Sriram said lately it’s always dangerous for fighters to outsmart themselves. I know how great and inspiring Trevor Wittman is but I don’t think there’s a fighter in the world that would beat Khabib if they do not go at him and destroy his body over and over, forcing him to shoot on them (and then in open space as they are the one pressuring). Prime Robbie Sprawler style. Maybe that’s what Gaethje will do, who knows but I’m afraid that like every other Khabib fight, Justin gonna look good for like a round or two and then Khabib will finally get his hands on him and that chain wrestling will slowly but surely exhaust Gaethje. I don’t see Gaethje getting back to his feet without exposing his neck or another part of him that Khabib won’t use against him. And as nobody mentioned it already, the weight of both fighters on fight night is going to be a huge factor. Khabib weighs around 190 lbs on fight night (if not more) when Justin said he barely cut weight (like 15 pounds maximum) and that difference will play a big factor once Khabib will have gaethje down. It’s going to be an amazing violent fight. Picking Gaethje is for sure a good idea, much better one than picking Conor and Dustin, but I guess as long as I haven’t seen Khabib in any danger all over his career I just cannot go against him. I’m still shocked by the way the fighters panics once he holds them. I cannot get this out of my head. That despair in the eyes of Dustin haunts me too much. Khabib Nurmagomedov by Sub Round 3.
Danny Martin: Khabib Nurmagomedov is one of the greatest fighters to ever compete in the sport of MMA. That much doesn’t even need to be said, but there it is. However, that doesn’t mean he is a flawless fighter or that his style and resume are infallible. To parrot a friend of the site, I feel like there are two Khabibs in existence: The first one is the mythologized, invincible titan of grappling that is just too good for any mere mortal to have a snowball’s chance in hell against and the second one is the intelligent, calculated grappler who possesses an acute understanding of an opponent’s threats, as well as an internal barometer to measure his own winning probability. So many people (from fans to actual opponents of Nurmagomedov) get hung up on the hyperbolized first Khabib, but few give the champion his due credit for the more accurate second iteration.
There is nobody at lightweight more difficult for Khabib than Justin Gaethje. For that reason alone, this is an infinitely more compelling challenge than either Dustin Poirier or Tony Ferguson would’ve been. As both a pressure fighter and (after the Ferguson beating) an outside counterpuncher, Gaethje is devastating and polished. Attacking the legs, body, and head should take priority for Gaethje here, because Khabib’s janky head movement freaks people out and willingly throws himself out of position. A committed body-puncher and leg-kicker such as Gaethje can accumulate easy damage against the champ, and he won’t be cowed if Khabib flails to get him off, which Dustin Poirier immediately fell victim to. Gaethje’s cross counter is available if Khabib wants to play off his jab, and the Ferguson beating demonstrated Gaethje’s improved check left hook, which he runs opponents onto should they encroach upon his distance carelessly.
Gaethje is a massive, physically imposing athlete, which counts for a lot on its own against Khabib, and he has a great background in wrestling that literally none of Khabib’s recent opponents have shown any acclimation toward whatsoever. The last great defensive wrestling threat that Khabib fought was Gleison Tibau, and while I’ll be the first person to recognize Khabib’s incredible improvements since that loss, it is telling that very few of Khabib’s opponents (if any) seem to fully acknowledge the kind of threat standing in front of them when it comes to the champion. I can’t overstate the following: As great as Khabib is, he has never fought a genuinely difficult stylistic matchup and nobody as of yet has fought an intelligent fight against him. That doesn’t diminish his greatness, necessarily, but it opens up a question of degree that I’m not sure the champion can answer.
I know that Gaethje has been training his wrestling and grappling defense with Kamaru Usman, which is huge. He has spoken openly about how dangerous Khabib’s wrestling is against the fence and how forcing his shot in open space is paramount. He is a serious threat in the clinch, can compete with Khabib physically, and punish lazy tie-ups. He is unlikely to get spooked a la Poirier, and he is tough enough to come back from a bad round better than Poirier or Conor. I don’t know how Gaethje’s raw takedown defense holds up against a repeated assault, but I do know that he won’t allow Khabib to just have his fight the way so, so many previous opponents have. Basically, Justin Gaethje has as good a shot as anybody to dethrone the champion, and should Nurmagomedov navigate this challenge in front of him, I will be legitimately impressed by Khabib in a way that I haven’t ever really been.
To hell with it. I play it safe with picks too frequently. Everybody should throw at least one upset pick into the ring. Justin Gaethje via second round KO.
Ed Gallo: Well I’m late to the party and my colleagues have done an excellent job breaking down the possibilities here. You can find my thoughts in full, which have not changed, in our “initial reads” article on this fight. I’m looking for Gaethje to keep Khabib on the backfoot, where his wrestling is markedly less effective and where Gaethje can use his excellent and dangerous cage-cutting tools to do damage. With regard to Gaethje’s defensive wrestling in a bubble - he’s clearly competent, as seen in the Luis Firmino fight. What got him taken down vs. Firmino was poor positioning as a striker, he either overextended himself and became vulnerable to the explosive leg attacks of the Brazilian, or backed up into the cage after being hurt with strikes, a symptom of his static high guard. Since then, Gaethje has cleaned up his defense, footwork and mechanics and stays within his stance for the most part.
I definitely worry about Gaethje looking to granby or funk his way out of rear-standing or other potential control positions, his moments will be when the wrestling exchanges are fluid, he should not give Khabib opportunities to lock down a solid position on the mat. On the other hand, Abel Trujillo had a ton of success with the granby roll vs. Khabib, so what do I know? Ultimately, I’m picking Justin Gaethje to keep Khabib out of the fight with steady forward pressure and hook off exits or chop out his legs when he attempts to circle out. If he does decide to hold mid-range and counter, I would be deeply concerned about how his defense holds up in extended exchanges off Khabib’s single leg in open space. He did show his capacity to limp leg out of singles against Firmino, but it’s a small sample. There’s never going to be a matchup in the UFC where I would be more confident about picking against Khabib, so I’m doing it.
Ben Kohn: Way late to this party, later than Ed. I blame the kids. Anyway, this fight has been covered in depth from a technical perspective but we already know Trevor and Gaethje have openly discussed the holes in Khabib’s game, and about exploiting them. It comes down to 1) if Justin actually follows the plans they’ve clearly laid out and 2) whether it matters. I do believe Justin can follow the plan and will rise to the occasion, it’s more #2 that intrigues me. Because at the end of the day, you can do everything correctly and sometimes it just may not matter. With Gaethje being a pretty big question mark on the ground, what if he does beat 7 shades of shit out of Khabib, and he just can’t stop him? Khabib is tough, we know that. He’s durable, fast, strong, and his cage wrestling and mauling grappling is something you can see me talk about here. We are going to see Gaethje punish Khabib’s entries, he’s going to be focused on staying away from the cage, and he’s very likely going to hurt Khabib. But if Khabib can take it and keep coming, things get very interesting. Personally, I think Khabib is more than tough enough to get into the championship rounds, damage buildup or not. I do anticipate him having success in putting Gaethje in bad spots too. However, as long as Gaethje can remain composed, he should get this win. Justin Gaethje by late TKO, 4th or 5th round.
Tommy: I have little to add in terms of technical analysis, other than a brief note on the grappling: while Gaethje has the credentials, it’s been ages since he was forced to wrestle for any long stretch of time, and he’s never shown himself to be a particularly skilled defensive cage wrestler. This doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but it’s a massive assumption to think his long-ago collegiate success will automatically translate to success in shutting down Khabib. The other thing to consider is the way Khabib’s grappling game has evolved since he last fought an American wrestler in Abel Trujillo. That fight featured a record number of takedowns, but most were what folkstyle wrestlers would call mat returns. Khabib could get Trujillo down but he couldn’t keep him down; since that fight the champion has developed a shutdown BJJ style leg riding game that in combination with his turtle breakdown and wrist control series has made it virtually impossible for his opponents to use folkstyle wrestling methods of getting back to their feet. Gaethje’s ability to use the guard to get back to his feet if necessary is a major unknown in this contest.
In terms of general read on the fight, Gaethje will use his footwork and body attacks to dissuade naked shooting from Khabib, and his physical parity with the champ will allow him to be competitive in the clinch so long as he can stay off the fence. However, I don’t know that he’ll be able to do that for the entire fight. And while Gaethje is an extremely powerful striker, his power is more thudding and attritive than one shot KO. As such I’m not sure he’ll be able to finish Khabib early enough to avoid being ground down in the later rounds. This intriguing fight is a virtual coin toss, but since we’re making picks Khabib Nurmagomedov by UD.
Kyle McLachlan: Given the actual weight (forgot ‘lightweight’) and the styles at play here, this is legitimately the Hagler-Hearns of MMA. The smart and seemingly unflappable champion who brings the pressure, and the janky, devastating monster.
For me, I see more avenues for Gaethje to win than Khabib. A quick release on his low kicks, a high-level wrestling pedigree (despite scant evidence of it in his fights) and an increased ability to get in and out of the pocket post-laser eye surgery, Gaethje has all the tools to be a Khabib nightmare. He can push him back, his post-fight comments after his shellacking of Tony Ferguson showed he knows where he needs to keep the fight (in open space, and keep his back off the cage) and he has potent power in both fists. He can force Khabib to lead, then force him to concede ground with his patented raids if he gets too close. Why analyse the Khabib side? If Khabib is going to win he will need to do what he always does. For me, this is more about what Gaethje brings to the table, as it suggests his skillset is the perfect antidote to Khabib’s approach. Gaethje will do what he needs to do to minimise the dangerous situations Khabib will try to put him in, and light him up late. If this is the Hagler-Hearns of MMA, this time I’m taking Hearns. Justin Gaethje by TKO round 4
*Saying all this there is one caveat to my prediction: Remember how Israel Adesanya beat Yoel Romero in extremely dull fashion? I said straight after the fight he did the right thing, beating Yoel the only way that would’ve stopped him getting destroyed at some stage of the fight. With Wittman in his corner and a more cerebral outlook as of late, do not rule out the possibility that the reigning violence king goes against type, utilises small steps and pivots all night and stays out of danger to beat Khabib in the safest way possible, limit the damage he takes, and annoys the majority of MMA fans in the proces. Gaethje is not Israel Adesanya, but on the feet Khabib is far less of a danger than not just Romero, but the majority of elite lightweights. If Gaethje can keep him shooting in open space, frustrate him and keep it standing, there is a definite chance he can also make it dull and take the win. Ferguson’s only moments of success standing was when he did crazy Tony Ferg’ stuff. I don’t envision Khabib’s level changes opening as many striking opportunities, nor am I relying on his famously wild flying knee and stuff like that. There is an avenue to success for Gaethje that doesn’t involve ultra-violence, and I think we should at least explore that before the fight takes place.
Haxxorized: Sometimes you can know a guy without actually knowing a guy. Or a fighter. Gaejthe/Nurmagemedov is one of those fights. I think everyone else has written enough of the technical details in the picks themselves (also see here, here and here), so here is my hackneyed attempt to summarise themes and ask some questions.
We know that Khabib is one of the most devastatingly effective grapplers to ever exist in MMA, with a keen sense of his and his opponent's strengths. We know that his threat value explodes somewhere into the stratosphere like one of those Kerbal Space Program success stories when the other man sees the fence as their friend, rather than the DEATH ZONE. We know that Khabib's janky-yet-functional striking and open-space takedown work are vehicles to get him to the best possible place to let the "smesh" commence. One could argue we know that for all of Khabib's tremendous accomplishments in the ring and scalps taken, nobody has consistently fought in a way to go after his weaknesses or neutralise his strengths. I find this observation especially crucial, because I would argue it is difficult to judge a fighter's cardio over five rounds until they have been stress-tested in such a fight.
But what do we know? Can he sustain his output over five rounds if forced to work in the hazy space between open-space and the fence, to resort to energy-expensive takedowns? Likewise, if a man proves competitive and ferocious, creating clinch collisions while walking forward with their hands out, relentlessly working his body and legs, how does Khabib react? Such a situation would probe his defensive limits; showing how much it benefits from his status as a takedown threat. That said, as frustratingly reductive as it is for "Khabib analysis" to end at "smesh or no smesh, this is question", when even exceptionally skilled opponents like Poirer buy the narrative (to their subsequent dismemberment), what else can you say?
So, onto Justin Gaethje. The man we arguably know since the Tony fight gets up in the morning with two wolves inside of him - one a remarkably restrained and tactful counterpuncher; the other an American take on Huitzilopochtli, or the Aztec god of war. But do we know if those two can ride or die together? Is it possible Gaethje comes out and transitions smoothly between a simple, brutal counterpuncher and a paced offensive war machine? Again, we know Gaethje is capable of coming up with appropriate game-plans to beat high-level opponents - can he tie together measured pressure and intelligent counterpunching? We simply don't know, and if he can't tie them together there one must always consider he might be 'too smart' and neglect to bring the pain that keeps him off the fence, although that has risks in itself. The path to victory for Gaethje lies somewhere between "the floor is lava", "the fence is electrified" and "spend the time not avoiding those beating him up or baiting takedowns into beating him up". Certainly, Wittman's guidance and adjustments coming into the Tony fight are a good sign - if there is any camp at this point I would expect to actually see who Khabib really is and use that to beat him, it'd be Gaethje's. Understanding is one thing of course; execution is another - and the story can change pretty damned quick with Khabib on top of you. Gaethje might see, but can he execute? Given it is just one-fight after he shellacked Tony, I have to conclude we just don't know.
So we have two fighters who typically win at a canter, who clearly study their opponents and bring appropriate game-plans. Their wins come through imposing their will and technique, their opponents cowed into fighting an idea instead of the man. Given their wildly different approaches of getting to that end game, I suspect much of the dynamic of the fight will be known by the first two minutes. I honestly think this is a 50/50 pick ‘em, and I hate that we can have title fights with so many unanswered questions remaining about really great fighters that'd let me pick one with confidence behind it. Mock me if you like, but I decided my "pick" by literally throwing darts on a board, so Khabib wins in three rounds or something.
Ryan Wagner: My colleagues have done a great job breaking down the matchup, so I’ll keep my thoughts brief. There’s a lot of aspects to Gaethje’s game that could trouble Khabib. Khabib will almost certainly need the cage to take him down, and he doesn’t fight off the back-foot terribly well, which means that Gaethje could do a lot of work through enforcing his pressure. Gaethje’s devastating leg kicks can also come in handy, as Khabib tends to retreat from exchanges in straight lines, and has always been either unwilling or unable to threaten takedowns off his opponent’s leg kicks.
The sticking point for me is the cage wrestling. Gaethje is uniquely primed to avoid having his back on the cage in a way that no other Khabib opponent has been, but it’s unrealistic to assume he can avoid the cage for the entire fight. He will find himself on there, and the question will become how prepared he is to deal with Khabib’s incredible cage wrestling on a tactical level. The answer? I have absolutely no idea, and I haven’t seen enough evidence of Gaethje in those situations to decide one way or another.
I think tactically astute takedown/clinch defense on the cage is essentially a prerequisite to beat Khabib consistently. If, before the fight, I see Khabib’s opponents fail to whizzer or control wrists, leave free arms in situations where it doesn’t make sense, give up underhooks through neglect - there’s almost no point considering how his game stacks up, because he won’t be able to keep himself in positions to exploit it. I haven’t seen that from Gaethje, but I also haven’t seen the right responses, because he just hasn’t been put in those positions often enough.
It’s entirely possible that Gaethje does have the responses we want to see from someone defending Khabib’s takedowns on the cage, but given the lack of evidence either way, I’ll have to take Khabib via UD
Mateusz Fenrych: Khabib is a strange beast. And I don’t just mean him and his ninja-turtle-shell-like lats. He is an almost-locked-on ATG with a very, very obvious weakness. And yet, nobody has really managed to engage him there with any consistency. When it comes to dealing with pressure striking, Khabib has been at his most vulnerable- for all their ultimate, embarrassing, attritional failures, both Poirier and especially McGregor managed to get Nurmagamedov backpedalling and looking nervous. Even Al Iaquinta sort of managed it. But it doesn’t really matter, because fighting Khabib has thus far been a sort of exercise is holding a line; not allowing him to cross the Rubicon, if you will, with the metaphorical river being getting the opponent’s back to the fence and getting him down, and Khabib has always, thus far, succeeded in successfully getting his waders on.
And Gaethje is almost the other side of the same coin, a striker with some supposedly dynamite TD defense (official UFC stat - time spent on the bottom, 17 whole seconds). But we just don’t know how that’ll factor against a cagewall monster like the Dagestani, where Gaethje won’t be able to roll through or explode out. As even he himself says, if he ends up on the fence, it could well be do svidaniya to his title chances. But his standup has become devastatingly cultured enough enough that we could see him make Khabib look weirdly rudimentary before he gets anywhere near being taken down fully. Measured pressure, a willingness to drop back into space and counter wild, lunging attacks with thudding, intercepting hooks and straights, and above all, a willingness to kick the lead leg.
Allied with an almost total lack of panic in his demeanour, and a pathological unwillingness to let an opponent in on his hips out in space, and we could see Gaethje dig huge holes in Khabib’s defence, and once Gaethje gets an attacking momentum, we know him to be devastating. This is a fifty-fifty, as Haxx says, but the end result, whoever wins, will be clear. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Gaethje stops Khabib fording the river this time, and earns a TKO 4.
Feño Sky: Chandler KO R2
Robert Whittaker vs. Jared Cannonier
Sriram: For a fairly decisive win over an improved-looking Darren Till, Robert Whittaker’s last fight did remarkably little to make everyone feel better about him -- in what should’ve been a layup for Whittaker, he still had his customary spot of trouble, increasing the total to five knockdowns and two catastrophic injuries in his last four fights. Even outside that mileage, he’s looked increasingly difficult to trust at putting together a clean performance since his dazzling wins over Souza and Romero in 2017. That said, he’s still only outright lost to the undefeated champion Israel Adesanya since his move to 185, and he looked pretty much present last time.
In my opinion, what troubled Whittaker in his last two fights was that he needed to extend exchanges to even land on the lead -- Adesanya’s crafty angle-taking and the massive Till’s big retreats meant that Whittaker’s blitzes weren’t as abbreviated as they were against Souza, where he could land and then take his (brilliant) defensive measures to exit, but he had to get two or three or four strikes deep to get into a position to hit and often lost track of his feet in the process. Jared Cannonier isn’t that kind -- even with the “reach” advantage, the former heavyweight always fights like the shorter fighter, pushing his opponent backwards and planting to counter upon entries, closer to a Romero than a Till. This is what makes me think that Robert Whittaker has an easier time making his blitzes look less risky -- Cannonier will be there to either be hit or draw a concrete reaction from, so Whittaker will have the option to build on safer leads (his jab, mostly, which could have atrophied but also loses some prominence against a huge southpaw).
On Cannonier's part, while his frightening physicality at 185 has been compounded by legitimate skillfulness, there's a lot of risk here that I'm not sure he's prepared to run -- especially if Whittaker's offensive variability on the lead is more than Cannonier can handle on the counter, which isn't unlikely since Whittaker's historically very good at drawing and proactively dealing with counters and fighters like Branch and Hermansson are not. Cannonier's a solid offensive boxer and a decent pressurer, but if he's forced to look to crowd Whittaker on the lead, it's hard not to see him running into Whittaker's educated counterpunching -- after all, even though it worked on Anderson Silva, it hasn't been terribly long since Cannonier's hooking raids got him counterpunched by Dominick Reyes, who went on to look about as threatening on the counter as a park bench against Jan Blachowicz. Add in Cannonier getting tuned up by Blachowicz (a less capable defensive-operator and ring general than Rob) with the jab-lefthook changeup that Whittaker is so great at, and Whittaker’s increased use of transitional work and takedowns that worse athletes in Branch and Hermansson had success with against Cannonier, and it seems like a fight that a prime Whittaker would find many routes in.
Is that to say it’s a safe fight? Absolutely not. I’m increasingly wary of picking Whittaker with confidence as his absurdly intense career has gone on -- and Cannonier can cause some trouble with his calm under fire, the bone-crushing power in his hands, and even the crippling (if rudimentary) leg kicking game that Whittaker has been susceptible to before. But Whittaker has run great risks before and he’s come out to win those fights, and Cannonier seems to give him too many spots upon which to show his considerable edge in depth. Whittaker by UD.
Danny: This feels like a trap.
On one hand, I’ve seen Cannonier comprehensively undone by fighters of a lower caliber than Whittaker (namely, Jan Blachowicz, Dominick Reyes and Glover Teixeira). Jan mostly kept him bamboozled at range with a decent jab, and Reyes managed to draw Cannonier out and counter an ugly, marching combination before putting him down. Combined with Glover outwrestling Cannonier with very little issue for fifteen minutes, I’m not sure exactly what to make of Jared. There just isn’t a lot of depth to his striking, and while a patient, stalking power-puncher archetype may be uniquely well-suited to middleweight, I still don’t believe that Cannonier is a particularly skilled fighter. He’s had three damning losses against a handful of OK light heavyweights, so why is he succeeding against genuinely skilled fighters like David Branch and Jack Hermannson?
Conversely, whatever trepidation I feel towards picking Cannonier is redoubled towards Whittaker. Where the hell is Rob at right now? From an accumulation of damage throughout his fights to him openly speaking about feeling burned out to those clean, composed victories over Jacare and Romero feeling more like relics of the past with each passing day...I don’t want to sign ‘The Reaper’ his death warrant just yet, but it feels as if the end of Whittaker’s peak operating window has passed.
The biggest question for me is how well can Whittaker employ his wrestling against Cannonier? He managed to take down Darren Till and layer in some transitional work here and there, but Cannonier is a far more imposing athlete who (frustratingly) allows opponents to wrestle with him until they get tired before timing their entries and clocking them. Watching Branch and Hermansson literally bouncing off Jared is concerning, both because if Whittaker sells out too much on the wrestling, he runs the risk of getting caught on entry. Can Rob just fence off the backfoot by sticking a jab in Cannonier’s face and hooking off the breaks? The last time Rob managed to employ that sort of game safely for fifteen minutes was against Jacare, three years ago. Again, I know Rob can do it, but trusting him to do it safely is the tricky part.
This is a tightrope fight for Rob, and I can see myself favoring a younger, better version of Whittaker (say, the one who deftly shut down Yoel Romero at UFC 213) over Cannonier without hesitation. However, Rob can barely seem to enforce his own fight without flitting over these ever-narrowing margins and Cannonier is the one here who can afford to make mistakes. Maybe this marks the return of Wrestle Rob, but Jared Cannonier via first round TKO.
Philippe: Great reads by Sriram and Danny. Very interesting. I’m leaning towards Danny’s pick also. The thing is that Robert Whittaker is the better fighter on paper but I have so many interrogations about him. And the more I watch his last fight, the more I have questions. Not a good look. I’d pick 2017 Whittaker to jab and possibly high kick Canonnier all night long, even 2015 Whittaker but now in 2020 that’s tough. I’ve always picked him so far but it’s tough to do so here. I know that Jared ain’t as long and as good a counter puncher as Izzy or even Till but he’s a man full of confidence who finally seems to have found himself and his perfect weight class. I haven’t rewatched Jared’s fights at LHW and HW because I don’t even see the point in it (different weight, body, confidence etc…) but I remember him being more skilled than he seemed but a tad bit chinny too. That chin is my only reserve regarding him at 185. When Jared will pressure Robert, will the Aussie jabs and circles or will he blitz over and over and while he changes levels will be welcomed by one deadly uppercut from the Killa Gorilla? That's my main question for this fight to be honest and if I’m sure Bobby gonna use his jab it’s tough to doubt that he’s gonna blitz or throw wild hooks once he feels the fence near his back. I’m not worried about Whittaker’s chin or his physique (I’ve never, on record, said many times that I never believed in that theory that Bobby’s physique was done after the Romero fights). I am worried about his capacity to see punches coming his way. I could be very wrong and I hope that I am but from all the fights I saw from Bobby he seems to never see coming or ignore all punches coming from below him. That’s why I’m so afraid that he gets sparked by a massive uppercut and some ground and pound early in the fight. Oh and one more thing, Jared is going to kick that lead leg over and over and this will for sure force the tough and reckless Bobby to blitz to warn Cannonier. I don’t like this at all. Canonnier by TKO round 2
Ed: Someone talk me into picking Rob.
Sriram: Don’t be a coward, Ed, pick Rob.
Ed: I’m picking Rob. Find out why on this week’s Heavy Hands
Ben: It does feel like a lot of sadness hedging here, and most of it is centered on Rob’s durability questions. Till can, and has, dropped plenty of fighters. Getting KO’d by Izzy isn’t something shameful, and he survived a Romero mauling. Cannonier is a monster himself, and he rarely wins without finishing his opponents. But, his MW wins are over 3 guys who bear no resemblance to Whittaker whatsoever. It’s not out of the realm of possibility Rob just pecks away at range while Cannonier follows him around.
That being said, if Cannonier scouts Whittaker well, there are areas he can take advantage of, namely Rob’s propensity to eat a lot of leg kicks. I’m worried about that, because if Rob’s movement is hindered early enough, it’s going to be a real problem considering he relies so heavily on quickly closing range and getting back out. In addition, if he plans to rely on his wrestling, that would affect his ability to shoot as well. Problem is, I don’t know how much I trust Cannonier and his camp to gameplan specifically for an opponent, so would his raw physicality and solid, but not especially deep, striking toolset be enough? We also need to keep in mind that despite him being perceived as rather scary, Cannonier can be hurt/KO’d (granted at LHW by Reyes but still). I really do see both sides of this equation, and I’m torn as well. I’d like to see Rob fight smart, just jab and kick from the outside for 3 rounds, and keep himself out of danger, and I think he can. Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision.
Tommy: Whittaker is the more skilled fighter and should win, but anytime you as an analyst find yourself saying that about a fighter it means there are good reasons they’re more likely to lose that you just don’t want to admit. In this case, it’s that for long time fans of Bobby Knuckles the notion of him falling to Cannonier on a combination of faded durability and suspect focus on the sport vs. the ridiculous physicality and crushing power of the younger fighter is saddening. But painful as it may be, it still strikes me as the more likely outcome. This is perhaps being a little uncharitable to Whittaker as he did look good bouncing back against Till, and it’s always tricky to try and time the moment at which a career full of wars will lead a fighter to drop off the cliff in terms of durability, but I’ll do exactly that in picking Cannonier by 2nd Round KO.
Kyle McLachlan: Till is a low output counter striker and even he had Rob down at one point. Cannonier is explosive and strong as fuck. If Bobby Knuckles wins it’s because he absolutely isn’t shot, but I’m still concerned he is. Call it a sadness hedge if you like, but I think Cannonier clips him. Cannonier round 1 KO
Aiden: Going to be honest, I am with the others here in terms of not knowing where either are at. Cannonier seems to be a solid and extremely powerful counter-puncher, but we have not seen him tested vs a solid leading game (outside of Blachowicz, who jabbed him up). Now, Whittaker has never been the best at entering in and was repeatedly clipped by Adesanya and Till trying to blitz in, but he does have an educated jab that he can (but often does not) use quite well. However, I am not sure I trust him at this point in his career at doing so. He seemed… confused trying to enter in at some points in the Till fight and seems increasingly okay with just trying to blitz in. That does not bode well vs Cannonier, who, from what I have seen, largely likes to fire off his counters on the step-in of his opponent. Cannonier is a frightening puncher and though Rob’s chin held up well vs Till, I am not sure it holds up well vs Cannonier. However, Rob has shown an increasing amount of skill as a counter guy on the backfoot, he has a nice counter lead hand in general. Cannonier has talked about and has shown a willingness to try to pressure in, so I think we could see Rob have some success there. Additionally, as the others have said, wrestling could be an outlet for Rob, but Cannonier does have quick & very powerful hips for TDD. A very tentative pick, but I think Rob gets it done here. Robert Whittaker - UD.
Iggy: All my friends are cowards and would not survive in the frigid steppes.
In all seriousness, the technical aspects were covered well enough by my colleagues so I won’t go into too much detail with regards to those. I have to say though, physicality and power are good and all but they have to be backed up by depth or at least a solid grasp on your fundamentals a lot of the time. Cannonier is a fairly rudimentary, nuts’n’bolts striker who, while used to contending with physically overwhelming opponents, was fighting against slower, frankly less-educated fighters. And Whittaker is physical, blisteringly fast, and incredibly adept at leveraging his technique with his natural attributes, however waned they may or may not be. Physical decline is the premier concern here, and mental decline frequently follows shortly after the physical one. Robert’s grueling run has truly codified the term “Middleweight Meatgrinder”.
But I trust Rob. I mean, since it’s a team effort and because it always pays to cover all your bases, I figured someone needed to look like a sappy, emotional idiot, and it might as well be me. I’m not ashamed of my admiration for Robert Whittaker.
This is the man who shrugged out of Romero’s crushing golem-like embrace time and again, and kept on fighting even as his brains were busy doing the cha-cha real smooth inside his skull, and even though being dropped by Till on entry soured Whittaker’s victory a tad, it was still timed — it wasn’t just Robert running face-first into a limb “Tom & Jerry” style. Whittaker lives and dies by the blitz lately and he has to connect with his punches in order to feel comfortable, but Cannonier is no Izzy. He won’t draw Robbo into a prolonged exchange, outmaneuver him in the pocket, and cut him down with razor-sharp counters while the Reaper is squared up and off-balance. Whittaker is the better boxer, the better kicker and the better wrestler. Who knows, maybe the Till fight taught Bobby something new? Or rather, reminded him of something he can do? We saw Robert employ time and measure before against Romero, and while his sortie against Darren Till wasn’t exactly reassuring, that was a long layoff. Fighters do sometimes need wonky performances to work out all the kinks and shake off ring rust. Darren Till is also enormous and has a unique talent of making almost everyone fight him in a weird way, safe for that time when he shit the bed against Woodley, causing everyone’s brain to break.
This is all speculative however. The leg kick is Cannonier’s main weapon against Whittaker here, and Whittaker’s alleged fragility is the main concern which is somewhat alleviated by the fact that Till, who as I’ve already mentioned is a very awkward fighter for anyone to beat at the best of times, wasn’t able to kick with Rob for free. And if there’s anything reliable in Whittaker here is that the man has an iron will. It’s a genuine intangible he possesses, and I feel like disregarding it here would be a mistake.
He’s fought against longer odds than these, with broken hands, torn knees and rattled brains; he trained until his guts burst out of his belly, and all of it was exacerbated by mental anguish always running in the background, seeping poison into his mind. Normally all these things would prompt me to cast serious doubt on a fighter’s ability to win but here it makes me feel somehow reassured.
This may well go on to become my epitaph to Robert Whittaker’s incredible but ultimately tragic run, where he loses to a fighter he should by all rights be able to beat, his body and mind failing him for one final time and the only thing going forward is the inescapable downward spiral of the aging fighter. But I feel like the Reaper’s experience, his depth, his technical efficacy, his craft, and the sheer dogged desire to win would let him run away with this one, just this once. Robert Whittaker TKO3.
Ryan: I don’t have much to say about this fight, and I’d take everything I do say about it with a grain of salt since it’s been about a year since I’ve watched Cannonier fight. I don’t think I even watched the Silva or Branch fights. Cannonier’s power and commitment to heavy leg kicks could pose a threat to Whittaker, but I don’t have faith in him to enforce his ringcraft. I haven’t seen sound pressure footwork out of Cannonier, and I don’t think he has the nous to either get in on the lead consistently or counter Whittaker’s blitzes. I see Whittaker out-foxing him on the outside and using his footwork to feint in and out. If Cannonier forces the issue and tries to create exchanges, Whittaker is a strong counter-puncher and capable of hurting or backing him off. Whittaker via R2 TKO
Haxx:
Tale as old as time,
meme as old as rhyme,
man with beaten body fights killer gorilla,
the dark cloud of sadness about the potential outcomes of this fight could be viewed from the territory of … idk … Anguilla?
(kill me).
Thanks people, institutions and social/cultural norms that enabled (and encouraged) Rob to overtrain until he chopped years off his peak. I hate it.
What worries me about this fight is I see one consistent (non-memey) way for Cannonier to win it - but it's a simple and intuitive one. Attack Rob's mobility wherever possible (and no matter the cost) by shellacking his legs, then clip him with some product of your athleticism, especially if it’s that uppercut and he’s blitzing in. It remains the right plan in almost every conceivable approach Rob can take, in my mind.
Is Rob staying at the end of his jab and fighting a superb and disciplined technical game? Stalk him and accept you will take damage, clip his legs, clang his head into the bleachers (maybe with the uppercut?)
Is Rob blitzing in on you (with perhaps some nuances of a wrestling threat)? Accept the damage, kind-of-stalk-him before he comes in, clip his legs, clang his head into the bleachers.
Is Rob finding some kind of middle-ground between extremes; and finding ways to bring his jab-left-hook and more educated blitzing twinned with the right low-kick approach and even some justified backfoot fence? Stalk him ... okay you get the point.
It's this kind of 'universality' of a “good” approach to get the win over Rob that makes me think Cannonier has a pretty good chance, and Rob has to be the more fundamentally sound fighter at all points in this contest. Additionally, we don't really have much information about How Cannonier's physicality actually translates to a lower weight class which was challenged in the same way it was when he was beaten in LHW. Glover might have been able to hold him down - are MW's another question; especially if Cannonier has shown concrete improvements in this area? Guess we’ll find out if Rob tries to wrestle ala the Till fight.
I concur with the general consensus that a younger, fresher and less damaged Rob would be able to treat this fight as a canvas upon which to paint. I also think that it would actually be a highly instructive fight to see just how much of a brain for fighting Cannonier really has, even if he might display some limitations in skill. I still think this fight can be that - the difference is that Rob's fragility adds a dangerous x-factor, especially given his increased preference towards blitzing entries of late. Still, sometimes you need to just ride with your homies, and my disgust for the typical Australian sports mentality of banking on physical supremacy until it fails you and 'unsociable conduct' (read: entitled manchild rule-breaking at every turn, a.k.a the AU cricket team) means I need to champion Australians who don't buy into this nonsense like Volk and Rob to the ends of the earth. Technique, baby!
Rob TKO 3, but prepare your coping mechanisms for an early Cannonier finish as Rob falls over, and Sriram/Ed/Tumen get caught performing some kind of dark ritual in a private chat involving half a swimming pool of alcohol, really depressing black metal; cheap cocaine, and the blood of a particularly salubrious chicken to wash the pain away.
Mateusz: I’m scared. I’m aligned with the rest of the Fight Site team with having a deep and abiding love for Whittaker, and despite a not entirely un-encouraging performance against Till, he still didn’t look like peak Bobby.
And Cannonier, despite some lackluster performances at LHW, at MW has shown a decent aptitude for finding a workable weakspot in his opponent’s game and prying it wide open. Against Silva, for example, he noticed the leg attacks worked well, so he did those until he kicked Silva’s leg off, and against Hermansson, he realised he could simply freak Hermansson out by ignoring his myriad feints and tire him out against his own hips when Hermansson tried to take him down.
He has a fairly minimalist game, but has shown a calmness in leveraging simple angles well thus far. If he takes any lessons from Adesanya or Till, I could see trouble for Bobby, with his big in-and-outs, timing his entries and breaking that line of attack. Mind you, Cannonier is not anywhere near as mobile as Adesanya, or even Till, and Whittaker is still a quick, versatile striker, so perhaps Bobby will still be able to work his range game against somebody who has been shown up at range in the past. Cannonier is massively powerful, but doesn’t seem very quick.
Sod it. I’m committing in real time here, to a Whittaker win, by UD. If Till was a sort of recovery performance after being blown out by Izzy, I can convince myself that Whittaker is a smart enough fighter to known how to rejig his game to keep himself safe against a big, powerful hitter.
Feño: Jared rocking the mythical crystals fade. Bobby UD.
Alexander Volkov vs. Walt Harris
Sriram: For a heavyweight fight, I’m quite looking forward to this one -- they’re usually guaranteed to be complete slogs, but both these men have shown spots of competence under very specific conditions, and it seems like both will be given those conditions by the other. Particularly, there probably won’t be any offensive wrestling, which probably drew a sigh of relief from both.
All that said, I think Harris is in a better position to look good in this fight. He’s a fairly committed pressurer when he gets his way, he’s a solid combination puncher sometimes (like the finishing sequence on the great Chase Sherman), and he’s an absolutely thudding puncher -- and Volkov has looked vulnerable to each of those, as an incredibly tall heavyweight who has the tall-man defense and the backfoot poise of Yair Rodriguez. While a volumeboxing style is easier to consider as “technical” than a powerpunching one, Volkov is still largely the fighter who lost (definitely lost, no question whatsoever) to Tim Johnson -- and him getting flustered and knocked dead by the sudden urgency of Derrick Lewis doesn’t bode well against an all-around more polished striker who can actually do several things. Not one where I’d be shocked either way -- it’s still a heavyweight fight, after all -- but Harris has a clearer route than Volkov seems to. Harris by KO1.
Ben: Walt Harris is about 3 times more athletic than anyone Volkov has faced on the feet, barring Hardy maybe, but he’s far more skilled than Hardy there. That being said, Harris’ best win on the feet was over…..well, Arlovski? Man, he has nothing to really say for himself in terms of quality wins against good strikers. Oleinik is dangerous but like, nothing compared to Volkov stylistically. Volkov’s durable as hell too so, I’m going to go with the more versatile and durable striker in Volkov. Alexander Volkov by UD.
Philippe: I like this fight actually. I like Harris' power/athletic fighting style. On a side note I’m happy to know that Walt is back to fighting and that this time his tragedy is not carrying the promotion of the event. It’s tough not to root for Harris though. But I think he can do it, he can beat Volkov, if he does it early. Walt truly does not have the best cardio (so powerful and explosive for 7-8 minutes). He’s one of my favorite heavyweights on the roster because he is a 1 minute destroyer. Walt is well aware of his strengths and weaknesses and knows the longer the fight goes the less likely he’s going to win. On the other side of the cage, Volkov can fight five rounds and can pace himself much better. I was very disappointed in his performance against Greg Hardy. And he also was in trouble several times against Werdum, blew his lead against Lewis so I’m not confident in picking him at all anymore. Can he use linear punches and kicks to keep Harris away for a round or two and then take over? yeah I guess but it seems u likely to me that Volkov keeps his focus for 15 minutes without getting caught by something big (ticket). Anything is possible! Walt Harris by KO round 1.
Kyle: I’ll take Harris, who actually showed he is at least a decent enough heavyweight before Overeem beat him. That doesn’t mean I’ll pick Volkov to beat him. Should be an absolute eyesore of a fight though. Walt Harris via decision
Aiden: Really liked how Walt Harris looked in his last one vs Overeem before cardio issues took over. Massive puncher, keeps his footing well when both counter-punching and combination punching, and is just pretty crafty at punishing any openings his opponent gives him. Cardio issues are big, but I don’t think Volkov has the power, grappling, or output to make it a huge problem like Overeem did. Volkov is a liability defensively and while he can keep range pretty well, I think Harris finds openings from counters or through his own pressure. Walt Harris - KO2
Ryan: Volkov via UD
Nathaniel Wood vs. Casey Kenney
Sriram: Bantamweight is so good. Kenney’s complete and utter smashing of AlatengHeili was a joy to watch, a very aggressive open-side kicking performance from the southpaw paired with a gorgeous counter right hook -- and given that he’s mostly been a grappler otherwise, there aren’t really doubts on him being “exposed” in a certain phase anymore. On the other side, even though a loss to John Dodson looks dreadful right about now, Wood re-established himself as a prospect to watch with the Castenada win -- and generally has shown to be a similarly broadly-skilled fighter, one with a love of snap kicks to the body and the left hook.
I think both have relatively high ceilings in the division, but my worry with Wood at this stage is how open he was to getting countered by Dodson — Kenney looked like a nasty counterpuncher against Heili, and while he isn’t a huge puncher, he’s a decently hurting one who finds his mark in combinations as the fight goes on. The southpaw Kenney is gonna have his kicking game here too, and for my money — while Wood is quite a crafty front kicker who probably builds his punches off those entries better — he’s the more immediately damaging kicker. The grappling could be delightful and I have no opinions on that but “it’ll be a brilliant wash”, so I guess I’ll ride with Kenney. I can’t express how highly I rate both of these guys as prospects, and I definitely wouldn’t be shocked to see Wood win, but this seems like quite a difficult fight for him. Kenney by UD.
Ed: I’ve grown to love both of these guys, it’s cliche but they’re so well rounded and full of promise. Wood continues to grow as a striker, and he has some solid offensive wrestling and grappling in his back pocket. Kenney is a grappler at heart who has always been competent on his feet, but his last performance showed a focused, educated attack from open stance. Ultimately I feel he doesn’t have the style to enforce a grappling performance against Wood, and that Wood’s striking is just so much more versatile at this stage, he should be able to control exchanges and get off way more volume when they clash. I’ll pick Nathaniel Wood by unanimous decision.