UFC 251 Fight Island: The Fight Site Staff Predictions
After a last-minute switcheroo gave us arguably a better card than we had before, MMA fans are salivating at the three title fights on offer at this weekends UFC 251.
‘Fight Island’ (actually Yas Island in Abu Dhabi) adds some extra intrigue to events, just because with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the measures taking place to put this event on in the first place makes it a weird one.
The card itself is pretty darn good: take a look at what The Fight Site staff had to say about the main fights.
UFC Welterweight Championship: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
Ed Gallo: I’m quite high on Masvidal’s defensive wrestling. Technically he does a lot right, and he’s typically approaching his defense with a sense of urgency. He can turn his hips to turn doubles into singles, whizzer and control wrists, post and limp leg. On the cage, he’s great at going underhook and wrist to turn off and strike on the break. The issue for me is that this is largely reactive, he’s not so great at avoiding wrestling situations entirely, he’s just near-elite once he’s in them. I feel that if these two continue to clash in the clinch, Usman will eventually wear on him and take over the fight.My confidence in Usman’s ability to continue to get to wrestling situations stems from a couple of things. Masvidal’s cagecraft isn’t a strength of his, especially off the backfoot. And given his likely acceptance of close-range exchanges so he can get his licks in, Usman won’t find it too difficult to get within range for snatch-single entries. He can use these to get to the cage consistently. From there, while again I’m high on Masvidal’s abilities, Usman has shown to be excellent at smothering and eliminating space in the early going against talented clinch fighters like RDA. I’m sure it will be extremely competitive, but I believe Usman will be able to get to his approach consistently and take over the fight in the championship rounds. Usman UD.
Kyle McLachlan: Short notice, yes, but Masvidal is old school, very experienced and as long as the short-notice cut doesn’t kill him he can still be competitive in my opinion.
Problem is, I’m as high on Usman as I am any champion in the UFC: strong, an excellent wrestler, an expert in controlling his man against the cage, and a striking game that has seemingly got a lot sharper in recent fights.
The big question is, will he try and use his striking to win, or use it to set Masvidal up? Nate even got Masvidal’s back up against the cage for a few brief moments. You’d have to think Usman can keep him there.
What I’m saying is that although Masvidal is crafty in all phases of MMA, I’m only giving him a ‘strikers chance’ to pull off the win. Kamaru Usman by decision
Philippe “#1 Jorge Masvidal hardcore fan” Pocholle-Marchetti: Jorge is one of my favorite fighters of all time. So it’s tough not to be biased in this matchup. It’s a good fight, I like it a lot. It’s a shame though that Leon Edwards is nowhere near a title shot.
I know my colleagues are very impressed by Kamaru Usman. I am too but not as much as they are. He’s a phenomenal athlete, insane cardio, good composure, very reliable, extremely dominant. I know, it’s a lot already, I should be impressed but I don’t know what Kamaru is made of. He’s good in all aspects of fighting (very strong in the clinch) but all I’ve seen from his UFC career is him being dominant. How does Kamaru come back from a bad round ? or getting cut? Hurt ? I don’t know. I’m sure he’s super tough but is he willing to risk his health to defend that belt I don’t know.
I know that Gamebred will never quit, no matter what though. Vintage Jorge was a beautiful talented undisciplined fighter. It was obvious when you watched him that there was always so much potential. Jorge could have been elite but he kinda blew it a little bit. But on the skill level I think he’s still to this day very underrated. I’m not talking about the bandwagon fans that love the three piece and a soda. I’m talking about educated fans. I think Jorge’s grappling skills are going to surprise more than one on Saturday night. Is he gonna shut down Kamaru’s offense ? Not entirely but he ain’t gonna be an easy out for Kamaru. I know for a fact that Jorge’s been in the gym a lot the last two months. He’s probably in decent shape but not in shape to go five hard rounds with Kamaru. So I expect Jorge to try to do what he did good lately. Take Kamaru’s head off. If Jorge goes to the body early (southpaw body kick ; punching the body) and punishes Usman everytime he grapples, then he has a shot. I also think Usman wants to prove to the world he can hang in there with Jorge. Kamaru actually became a decent striker—not on the level of Jorge—but as much as I think Jorge gonna surprise people in the grappling department, I think Kamaru is going to surprise people in the striking department.
Kamaru is the favorite, rightfully so, as he’s the better fighter. But the best fighters don’t always win. If it gets past Round two, it’s over for Jorge because I definitely see Usman taking over and gassing a frustrated Masvidal out. But I’m picking Jorge Masvidal (someone has to and I can never pick against him) for the upset. Jorge Masvidal via Round 2 KO
Feño: Very intriguing match-up, Usman is stiff but fundamentally solid at range and has all the tools to transition to the clinch, where he is one of the best and most punishing fighters in the sport. Jorge on the other hand is the smoother operator at kicking and boxing range and is a crafty clinch fighter himself. I expect Kamaru’s pace and physicality to make the difference on this one, Masvidal, as solid as he is in the clinch, is not a very active fighter there and Kamaru’s size and strength will mean he will either get outworked there or tired trying to constantly exiting tie-ups against the fence. ‘Gamebred’ has a real shot if he is responsible with his footwork at open space and diligently works to create space at Usman attempts of closing the gap. Possible, but I can’t really trust him to keep it for 5 rounds, I expect a very competitive and fun fight early and the champion to have more dominant (but not exactly damaging) rounds eventually as it develops. Usman by UD.
Sriram Muralidaran: Not a ton to add. Masvidal wins a fight that Usman approaches the way he did Covington, but there’s absolutely no reason to expect Usman to fight like that; he’s a fairly smart fighter who knows where he has the biggest edge here, and Masvidal is dangerous and a skilled wrestler himself but not impossible to control-wrestle (as seen against Maia). The answer to Usman at this stage isn’t someone who’s going to concede wrestling chains, even if they can hold it off in the clinch the way Masvidal and even Leon Edwards likely will; Usman’s answer is an Aldo or a Whittaker, and that just doesn’t exist at the weight-class. Usman could get hit hard and finished, it isn’t impossible since his defense in the pocket is (to put it kindly) developing, but between Masvidal’s short-notice, Usman’s increasing comfort as a striker, and the ranges where Usman can enforce both skill and physicality edges, the probable winner is clear to me. Usman by TKO5.
Ben Kohn: This is not an especially difficult matchup to analyze. Jorge’s chances to win are centered around his ability to force Kamaru to engage him on the feet, and stay off the fence. Jorge is a capable clinch fighter, has really good takedown defense, and is an excellent defensive grappler. But there’s a big difference in fending off the wrestling attacks of Demian Maia, and Kamaru Usman. Usman’s ability to impose his physicality on his opponents is surpassed only by Khabib. Usman’s striking has improved, but he should avoid hanging too long on the feet with Jorge. He’ll be particularly vulnerable in those deeper exchanges, as Jorge is able to pick up Kamaru’s reads the longer he engages him.
What should give pause to picking Usman with full confidence is he’s still rather stiff on the feet, and Colby was able to tag him plenty in those exchanges. Usman’s proven his chin is solid, but Jorge is a pretty powerful guy by any standard. That being said, I see Usman being able to enforce his game, pressuring Jorge back toward the cage, engaging in the clinch, and delivering a grueling fight for anyone who loves Jorge (sorry Pipa!). Jorge can definitely win this, and his kicking game would need to be a huge part of that. Body kicks galore my friend. Anyway, Kamaru Usman by Unanimous Decision.
Mateusz Fenrych: Looks like my pick will somewhat mirror my colleagues. Although I too have a high degree of respect for Masvidal, and he certainly seems the better-rounded fighter, I can’t see past Usman’s sheer physicality in this match-up. It’s a similar issue that Burns would have had to contemplate: although Masvidal looks good at 170lbs physically, Usman is monstrous.
That said, on the feet, Masvidal is a much greater threat than Burns would have been, especially in the open, and with Masvidal’s variable veteran wiles I can see him causing issues while it remains in the centre of the cage. Remember, as Ben mentioned, Usman was given pause for thought by Covington’s striking, which is hardly elite in power or craft. Masvidal’s is.
But, once it gets to the fence, and it almost certainly will, I have a hard time seeing how Masvidal will be able to handle that Umsan grind. Masvidal has shown excellent defensive grappling chops - Demian Maia’s words of praise need to be highlighted here - but Usman made his bones, and won his title, wrestling people into the octagon floor; beyond that, it’s hard to see far beyond an Usman UD.
Julian Lung: Last minute fight for Masvidal and even though he’s shown tremendous takedown defense and submissions defense, I highly doubt he can hold off Usman for very long. I expect him to low kick and beat up Usman’s body for the first few rounds and probably rough him up in the clinch, but I expect Usman to have his way with him down the stretch. Masvidal has an insane chin and recoverability, so I don’t expect him to get finished out right, so Usman UD.
UFC Featherweight Championship: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway II
Sriram: While the first fight was significantly more competitive than many believe, Volkanovski/Holloway II is an awful fight to make at this point. Not only does the division have other contenders who could feasibly face the champion (the surging Chan Sung Jung, and Zabit Magomedsharipov), there are multiple top-10ers who both deserve shots at Holloway's top spot and would serve as winnable returns for him (such as Calvin Kattar and even Yair Rodriguez). In my view, not enough has changed for Max to be relied upon to win this one; an easier fight would likely give Holloway either the confidence to go back to the aggression he showed before the Poirier fight, or the opportunity to fully work the kinks out of his newer approach (of commanding the fight via backfoot-jabbery), but now he's just stepping in against a guy who seemed to have him figured from the opening bell.
In a perfect world, Holloway turns earlier to the open-side kicking that helped him late in the first fight, which would help him make a fight of it down the stretch, against Volkanovski's surprisingly versatile leg-kicking game and his ability to limit Holloway's jab with his distancing and his counterpunching. However, I expect that only the latter manifests, and even more meaningfully than the first time; it will likely be the same Holloway, and Volkanovski can build off his successes as well as anyone. Going to take a fairly wild, very sad gamble and go Volkanovski by TKO5.
Mateusz: This one differs from the welterweight title fight in that while I can understand why the UFC made it since there isn’t really a clear other challenger to Volkanovski’s title, it really doesn’t feel like it should happen anyway.
Volkanovski’s performance was not a total domination of Holloway, but as already noted, he knew most of the answers to Holloway’s questions before he stepped in the cage, and it wasn’t until the deepest tracts of the championship rounds that Max even looked like landing particularly hard on Volk.
That said, the fact that he DID land on Volk late might lead to some developments, if his team are diligent and rigorous in their planning; body kicks and punches had a notable effect. The effect tended to be a shit-eating Aussie grin, but nevertheless, it was a sign they landed.
If Max did manage to reverse the result, it would honestly rank up near the highest-grade rematch turnarounds for me, since I believe it would require a real against-type fight for Max- perhaps a genuinely disciplined stick-and-move type of outfight that I don’t ever recall him adopting until now.
So, with no evidence to the contrary, I’m going to have to stick with a Volk victory once again. I’ll pick a Volk by UD, because although Holloway has been taking hard damage lately, he didn’t look troubled in a conscious sense against Volk, who isn’t as thudding a hitter as Aldo or Poirier.
Ed: Two things stood out to me from Max Holloway vs. Volkanovski the first time. One was that his confidence in fighting through the pocket was clearly shaken. Volkanovski was doing an incredible job picking at Max at distance, and countering when Max attempted to close in behind his jab. However, we’ve seen Max fight through those situations in the past and extend exchanges, where he can apply his pace and start to gain momentum. At the first sign of trouble, Max backed off. That’s deeply troubling, and I can’t be sure that much will have changed with an immediate rematch. The other thing I noticed was that when Max was kicking to enter his boxing range, or kicking on Volkanovski’s exits, he did quite well. Max’s kicking game has always been incredibly effective, when utilized (see: Anthony Pettis fight), and it did seem to address the aforementioned pocket entry problem. Simply kicking more is an easy fix for a more competitive fight from Max. However, I think there are deeper changes necessary to make Volkanovski’s gameplan obsolete. The one that jumps out is more variance on the jab, Volkanovski found Max’s entries predictable and his success in those situations is what gave him time to pick away at Max’s legs. Feinting and stutter stepping into range may draw out those reactions from Volkanovski, giving Max a better window to work from. That seems like something that could happen within one training camp.
Ultimately, there isn’t really a reason to assume Max is going to do things much differently, with this quick of a turnaround and no evidence to suggest change. Volkanovski UD.
Danny: When this fight was first being discussed, I hated it. Now, I still hate it, but I’m not quite as pessimistic as I thought I would be. In general, when a fighter approaches a fight with such a categorically incorrect gameplan, the opportunities to improve in a rematch are great. Therefore, I don’t want to rule out the possibility of Max kicking more, finding counters to the low kicks early, and using tools like the intercepting knee to time Volkanovski’s entries. There is no part of me that wants this fight to happen and it is always smarter to favor the winning fighter, so Volkanovski via Unanimous Decision feels like the right pick, but Max found enough answers in the latter half of their first fight that a potentially closer rematch could be on the horizon. EDIT: So, I just learned about Holloway’s training situation and that does not inspire in the slightest. Maybe Volkanovski finishes the job this time around.
Kyle: If Usman is one of the champs I am most high on, Volkanovski is the guy I can’t believe more aren’t high on.
Recent news about Max’s training camp (or lack thereof) don’t do much to change my mind. I think Volk can replicate what he did last time but be even more comfortable and confident and build to a late stoppage. Max hasn’t really looked the same since the Dustin Poirier rematch: I think he may be low on confidence, and after having such a tough career from such a young age, I think we may have already seen his best. Yet with Alexander Volkanovski, I’m very much of the opinion that the best is still yet to come. I think it might well come this Saturday. Volkanovski TKO 4
Philippe : Hot take, I think Alexander Volkanovski is the best fighter in the UFC roster. I did a video breakdown on how Volkanovski beat Max Holloway so check it out (Philippe’s prediction continues after the video)
(Philippe breakdown continued) And for the rematch, I’m extremely concerned by what Max has been saying (denial about how the first fight went, training methods). Hopefully he’s trolling us and knows he needs to go to the body as soon as the fight starts (Volk did adjust the body shot in the last round by the way, giving up on the high guard and moving in and out much more). But I think Volkanovski is just better everywhere. I love Max Holloway and I think Saturday Night is the night we’ll see him get crushed badly, sadly. Alexander Volkanovski via TKO round 3.
Lukasz: Max Holloway is a guy who is by far at his best when he can get a good rhythm going, and get his opponent responding to it and trying to escape from it. Alexander Volkanovski is a guy who really really excels at figuring out an opponent’s timing and just refusing to play into it- it’s remarkable how comfortable he ultimately was against Holloway the first time despite not really doing anything that seemed really special at first glance. Given those factors, and given how unconvincing Holloway’s response appears to have been (essentially denying that he lost at all), I don’t see Max changing enough to change the outcome, unless he’s leading us all on and has been taking rhythm-breaking lessons of his own, so I’m going for Volk by Decision
Feño: Volkanovski really had a good read in the first fight, while not a domination by any means, it was clear his camp did the homework and it paid off, enough to put exclamation marks in enough rounds to win a clear decision. Holloway has avenues here, if he starts working the body earlier this time this could get very interesting, it could either win him the fight or expose him to bigger counters by Alex. If we go by interviews, I don’t expect Max to do much about the leg kicks and Volkanovski to make some fine adjustments after spending 25 minutes in there with the former champ. Probably an even closer fight that the first one, but I expect the champion to do enough. Volkanovski by Decision.
Ben: I don’t think we see Max turn it around from the first fight. If the claims that he basically cardio kickboxed for this camp are true, I see this going even worse than the first one. Volkanovski’s rise has been beautiful to watch, and we will see him beat Max even worse than the first time. I’m not sure Max will adjust by kicking the body more, but even if he does make the adjustment, it’s not as if Volkanovski is not going to have any answers. Those openings that were left in the first fight will have been studied, and likely addressed with backup plans too. I expect we will see Volkanovski catch those kicks should they be thrown in earnest, and look to land big shots off them to stymie Max. Max’s durability is still a question mark for me, but I think we see him lose another decision. I was wrong about the finish the first time, hopefully he doesn’t get finished here. Alexander Volkanovski by Unanimous Decision.
Julian: What upset me the most last time about their first fight, is Max’s inability to throw a body kick or even head kick. Against Swanson and Pettis he was blasting body kicks and forcing them to block them to land jabs and hooks. I think Volk doesn’t need to change much to win the fight, but it isn’t inspiring to see Holloway more or less dismissing the win in the pre-fight build up. I expect Max to lose the same way, unless he rediscovers his love for body kicking and his lovely stance switching body hooks. Alexander Volkanovski UD
UFC Bantamweight Championship: Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo
Sriram: As a collective, we rate Jose Aldo as the greatest fighter of all time, and many of us (including myself) would consider his prime form the best fighter of all time. If this was a shrunk 2014 Aldo, or even a shrunk 2017 Aldo, I'd give Yan a very slim chance, because it's a dreadful fight for even a pressurer as singularly talented as the Russian. A bulletproof defensive boxer and ring-general has obvious implications for Yan, considering the points where Jimmie Rivera found success (and where he found failure), and prime Aldo was also a massive hitter who can pose danger in even-exchanges to Yan and find routes around Yan's high guard (including to the body). Every component of Yan's process would run into heavy resistance.
The concern is that nearly the entire last paragraph was in the past tense. Aldo's decline started as his output faltering hard, and now even his defense looks less reliable than it used to; the cut and age has taken a toll for sure. At this stage, a fighter like Yan who can force pocket exchanges and hit his body, and generally drive a pace while being responsible enough to not give Aldo glaring openings, will probably take rounds off Aldo and deal some damage as he waits for that opening. In 5 rounds, expect that to turn into a finish, as Aldo's heart is still there but his body isn't. Yan via TKO4.
Mateusz: Am I mad for thinking Yan might actually have some trouble with Aldo?
I still expect a Yan victory, but unless Aldo is totally degraded (and the Moraes fight suggests that he's some way gone but not totally), I still think the match-up gives him some trouble.
Holloway, for example, and Volk, are two guys who both make huge numbers of feints, and their responses to reads are often to overwhelm opponents in ways they can't layer out of exchanges; Volk feinted so much that Aldo seemed almost overloaded by the decision of which ones to react to, while Holloway keyed in onto Aldo’s defensive reactions and poured it on in such volume that Aldo couldn’t ‘process’ his way out of trouble.
Yan doesn't really do that; while he does test layers of defence, he often allows his opponent to cycle through those layers until he catches them at a prime point; his Riveira fight looked like that.
Aldo is (was?) obviously pretty excellent at mounting his layers of defense in unpredictable ways if you don't push him to react in new ways in each one.
That said, I think the two fighter’s career arcs are going to be of paramount significance. Aldo really has lost a step in terms of reflexes, and has utilised fewer deadly tools since UFC 200 (wherefore are the leg kicks?!). The Moraes fight proved his chin is still surprisingly durable, and his cardio allowed for a surprisingly concerted pressure game, but Moraes looked diminished in confidence and craft himself, after his humbling by Cejudo.
Moreover, Aldo’s reactions look far jerkier and less refined than they used to, head movement eliciting a spasmodic jerk from his upper body when called upon, and Aldo’s cardio has never been an issue when his defence is not being tested.
Yan’s cage craft is very good. He cuts off and stalks with malicious intent; he hits the body, grapples and throws combos with varying aims and purposes, and eventually, unfortunately, I think Yan’s more optimal combination of youth and technical primacy will see him to a sad, sad TKO, possibly in the 4th.
Ed: It’s a very sad fight all around. While Jose Aldo doesn’t look bad, necessarily, at 135, he looks markedly worse than he did at featherweight. For someone who reportedly struggled greatly with his weight cut to make an even bigger cut, deep in his career, is so worrisome. His durability appeared to be intact vs. Moraes, but reaction time, dynamism, and even simple things like balance were clearly diminished. Not to mention Aldo officially lost that fight, it’s an unearned title shot in a division with two clear #1 contenders. With all of that in mind, it’s hard to think about this matchup in terms of the pure stylistic clash. Petr Yan is one of the most defined (and successful) pressure fighters in the UFC right now. He starts slow and stalks, showing single strikes to begin making reads and figuring out how best to corral and counter his opponent. Once that pressure begins to build and his pace picks up, Yan is probably the best in the UFC at extending pocket exchanges by transitioning into and out of collar ties and grips on the wrists. While the value of those tactics was already clear, they were made undeniable when he knocked out the notoriously granite-chinned Urijah Faber off the break.
Aldo, on the other hand, has proven to be one of the most difficult fighters to pressure in the history of the sport. He has pressure discouraging weapons like his jab, he can evade entries and control cage positioning with lateral footwork, slips and pivots. This is not to mention that if the goal of that pressure is to grapple, his grip fighting and hips are absurdly quick and powerful.
Ultimately what I see is a physical, durable, gritty, pace-driven fighter in his prime coming after an aging legend who has increasingly had trouble managing cardio even in three-rounders. It’s hard to unsee. Petr Yan R4 TKO.
Danny: If all three title fights on UFC 251 are marked by reservation, this one is definitely the worst of the bunch. Why is Aldo here? A minor point that people aren’t mentioning is how badly this reflects on Petr Yan, who has done nothing but cleared the path in front of him, ducking nobody and violently climbing his way up the ladder. Should he finish Aldo the way most of us anticipate he will, the only narrative to come from this bout will be a negative one surrounding the matchmaking. Whatever. Once upon a time, Aldo was the greatest outside striker in MMA and the single toughest fighter in the world to pressure, so on a stylistic level, Yan isn’t generally the kind of guy I’d expect to trouble him. That said, Aldo has looked horrific since the Volkanovski fight and I still can’t believe that he opted to move down to 135 in the first place. Yan’s pace, body-punching, and consistency should be more than enough to carry him to victory against a year-16 Jose Aldo. I love Yan and I want to see him succeed, but this is a bummer. Yan via fifth round TKO.
Kyle: I cannot see Aldo getting much done at all here, he’s a two-round fighter at best nowadays, and I don’t think there’s any argument for him being Moraes either.
Yan is crafty, and his trip and throw game might negate Aldo’s incredible takedown defence (which might not even be as great as it used to be after Moraes got him down) and outside of an Aldo bombardment to the body, I can see no reason not to pick the younger, fresher guy who also appears to have an elite skillset.
As with Masvidal--but even moreso--’strikers chance’ is not analysis. It’s fantasy. Yan by TKO round 2
Philippe : Do people not realise that Jose Aldo retired after UFC 179 ? What is this shit? But if he’s fighting then I’ll pick him just because he’s Jose Aldo. Jose Aldo via TKO Round 2..
Lukasz: The one thing that gives Aldo a shot is that Yan, in his quest to deliver Lomachenko-like angles but without leaving himself as open to leg kicks as moving like Lomachenko would do, does sometimes lean into those angles instead and leave himself overbalanced. If Aldo can time a pivot or step back and the right response (an uppercut or knee for preference), he could have Yan falling into something in a way that would make up for all his faded explosiveness and leave Yan spark out on the floor.Beyond that though, it’s not likely to be a fun fight for the Aldo fans. Yan’s just too young and too busy, and although the style is very different, the ultimate effect is likely to be something quite similar to the Max Holloway fights, except with Aldo far more faded than he was then, ending with Yan by TKO 3
Feño: For some reason I’m expecting Aldo to look better than he did versus Moraes here. I think his body will be more used to function at its new composition, and hopefully that will be enough to give us a good fight. Aldo, technically, has all the tools to win this, his defense, footowork both in defense and offense, and keen eye for openings could be a trouble for Yan, but at his age both his pace and his consistency aren’t what they used to be. Aldo still has flashes of brilliances but flashes won’t be enough for this one, Petr will keep the pressure going, will adjust and will make José pay for every moment of not being great, and I expect those to show up more and more as the fight goes on. Yan is your new Champion, TKO, Round 3
Ben: To give my thoughts, I’d be echoing a lot of my colleagues. Aldo would have presented a pretty bad stylistic matchup for Yan during his prime, but he’s past that….by a lot. When speaking with Pedro Rizzo, I asked him about the fight and he told me he expects Yan to draw out Aldo’s ferocity, and frankly I think he’s right. The question is how long can Aldo fight at pace for, especially with the weight cut? I’m not sure, and Yan is very durable in his own right. The safe bet is Yan, mostly by just being young and not shot. I do think we see Aldo take the early rounds potentially, but if his tank can’t hold up, Yan should take over. Petr Yan KO round 4.
Julian: Aldo looked rigid, slow, and frail against Moraes, while he did pressure him and marked him up, nothing he did shows me that he can sustain that for a long period of time. Interestingly, I believe Yan will most likely fight on the outside for the first couple of rounds and we’ll see what he does from there. I do believe that Aldo can hurt Yan and trouble him, as he has lovely low kicks and can definitely time knees/hooks when Yan drop shifts and changes stances. Still, I expect Yan to get Aldo a horrible beating in the later stages of the fight, as Aldo just doesn’t have it in him to fight 5 rounds especially at Bantamweight. Yan TKO Rd. 4
Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica Andrade II
Kyle: My hope is that Rose has been able to train and further her knowledge of the game in the 14 months since her loss to Andrade. If the slam has taken something out of her, Andrade also got walloped soon after, so in terms of accumulated damage they might be about the same?
Regardless, Rose looked very sharp in the early going against Andrade first time round, and only needs to stay sharp for another round-and-a-half this time. Andrade is strong, but has always been pretty basic IMO. Unless Rose’s confidence has been knocked for six, I think she can build on what she did last time, counteract Andrade’s clinch game in a way that doesn’t get her sparked out, and score points and cut Andrade up with her sharp striking. Thug Rose by decision or late stoppage
Philippe : I know my man Lukasz is going to disagree but I’ll always pick skills over athleticism. And I do think Andrade’s physic was awful against the champion. She looked soft and unmotivated. I’m picking Rose to continue what she was doing, except that this time she gets Jessica out of here inside 2 rounds. Rose Namajunas via second round KO.
Lukasz: I am gonna disagree, but not by an awful lot. Rose has the obvious advantages in skill, despite what happened she had clearly been working on certain improvements (a greater degree of lateral movement, notably) before the first fight, she’s had an extra year to bed those in, and with Andrade’s chin cracked against Zhang the same damage Rose did the first time might well end the fight here.However.Even in the first fight, all the lateral movement only really happened when Andrade approached slowly, and gave Rose time to think. The one move she did have that she could employ to move out was the pivot with check hook and Andrade figured that out before the end of the first round, started kicking her standing leg out from under her. And that’s the thing really. Andrade is technically crude, but she’s smart, makes the right reads, and if there’s an adjustment available to her with the tools she’s got she often makes it. Even if Rose makes certain changes that let her avoid Andrade’s initial rushes, I feel like chances are good Andrade will mess with the timing of her approaches and find ways to grab hold the way she needs. And while true that Rose only needs to survive a round and a half longer than last time, if she’s feeling as tired as she looked at that point in the first one, a round and a half will be a lot. Which is why I’m ultimately going to go with Andrade by TKO Round 3
Feño: Not really liking what I’ve seen from Rose’s training situation to be honest, but she still is the younger, less shopworn and more technical fighter of the two here. Andrade caught up with some good tactics late in the first fight despite her limitations, and I expect her to implement those early here. Even then, I expect Namajunas early to be too sharp for her and put on a good lead. The winner will most likely be determined by who wins the second round as I expect Andrade’s pressure and attrition to overwhelm Rose eventually, not to getting finished but to lose control of the fight. Not confident here but I think Rose does enough to control distance and land bigger and cleaner in the first two. Rose by Decision.
Sriram: Not enough time has passed for the dynamic of the fight to change, in my opinion. Andrade has a single gear and she fights in a way that leaves her vulnerable to anyone who can counterpunch her wild hook-flurries (or anyone who has any degree of comfort pivoting or moving offline), but Namajunas is still a fairly weak clincher/wrestler who can be manhandled by strength or gassed out by pace despite her skill as a pocket-boxer for WMMA. The difference here is form, and both could’ve decayed; Namajunas hasn’t fought in over a year, where Andrade got smashed completely by Weili Zhang, and Andrade’s style is so reliant on durability that any slip there could be catastrophic. We’ve seen already that Namajunas can hurt Andrade badly and absolutely school her on entries, so while Rose’s form is indeterminate, I’ll take that over Andrade’s more defined decline-risk. It could look literally identical to the first fight, where the nearly unkillable wrestler runs down an in-out boxer who just stops being able to keep the smasher off, but I think it’s marginally more likely to look exactly like the first round and end there. Namajunas via KO1.
Ben: For me, this really just comes down to if Andrade can eat the shots again. After getting KO’d by Zhang, that’s not something I can say with confidence anymore. Rose was landing bombs on Andrade in their first fight, and stung her badly. If she lands those same strikes again, I don’t know if Andrade can take them.
That being said, the first fight was not a complete wash, as Rose’s movement and defense showed plenty of holes, eating the leg kicks and getting caught flush with big hooks. Rose’s clinch looked as meh as it has historically as well. Andrade has avenues to victory here, and this fight is kind of difficult to call.
I rarely pick a fight based purely on a fighter likely not being durable enough anymore, but I’ll go Rose Namajunas KO round 1.