UFC 250: Fight Site Staff Picks
Photo courtesy of the Ultimate Fighting Championship
Still in the middle of a massive public health crisis, the UFC has now turned to the Apex for their next pay-per-view; UFC 250 likely would’ve been a milestone event in a universe without the novel coronavirus, but at this point is defined by how far the UFC has been willing to go to keep the show going on. The headliner is a symptom of exactly that, as Amanda Nunes looks to clean out the floundering 145 division completely by defeating the final contender there; Felicia Spencer has established herself as the last challenge Nunes has to face at women’s featherweight, unless it deepens considerably. While Nunes’ claim as the WMMA-GOAT likely doesn’t change at all with a win here, Spencer would at least be a name that symbolizes her dominion over WMMA above 115.
Truthfully, though, the story at UFC 250 is not women’s featherweight, but men’s bantamweight; arguably the best division in MMA, 135 will likely have a severe rankings shake-up by the end of the night. While Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo is likely during the summer, 250 has a fight for the man who should be fighting for that belt next; Aljamain Sterling and Cory Sandhagen have largely torn through their opposition so far, and fight for their right to be the #1 contender (in actuality, if not in the official rankings). The other big 135 fight is between two fighters on losing streaks, but who could be back in the picture with a win over the other; former champion Cody Garbrandt and all-time great Raphael Assuncao square off to create some momentum, in a division where that’s at a premium.
The Fight Site’s MMA team is here to look at the most important fights scheduled for June 6th, and try to predict the dynamic of each fight.
Nunes vs. Spencer
Sriram Muralidaran: I don't care. Spencer via something, because it'd be funny
Ryan Wagner: lol, Nunes via UD I guess.
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: I like Nunes, a lot. I’m just not sure which fight we’re going to see between her and Felicia. Will the Lioness pressures the Canadian, staying behind her jabs, teeps and long straight punches and focusing mostly on not getting taken down by one of Felicia’s reactive takedown or will it be Felicia pushing the pace, willing to eat a few shots to fence wrestle Amanda ? Can Nunes get some success on the backfoot countering The sloppy but nonetheless tough Spencer ? Those are the reasons I’m curious about this fight. The winner of that fight is the one who’ll move forward in my opinion as none of them has a backfoot game (Nunes has in some nuances). I’m leaning towards Amanda because I don’t think she’ll fear to grapple with Felicia and definitely don’t respect her counter punching abilities. Amanda may even tried to take Felicia down as Spencer is very heavy and dangerous on top but wasn’t very impressive against Cyborg when she was on her back. Felicia is game though, she’s very brave, tough and only knows to fight moving forward. So, if you follow me here, there should be a lot of pocket exchanges and clinch battles in the open. Who’ll win the clinch will definitely dictate where the fight goes. That’s why I’m hoping for a sloppy but fun banger with these two. My only interrogation about Amanda is her cardio at 145 lbs but as long as she’s fighting her fight she’ll be just fine enough to stop Felicia Spencer inside Three Rounds. Amanda Nunes by TKO Round 3.
Tommy Elliott: I have no interest in this fight and the UFC really needs to stop trying to make 145 happen. It’s not going to happen. Nunes by TKO in R2.
Ben Kohn: Phil and I are on the same page here (we usually are, what a king). I like Nunes as well and I’m curious about this fight too. This seems to be a fight that comes down to Spencer tiring Nunes out by enduring a potential onslaught or forcing a grinding fence/ground battle. If Nunes is able to keep her at range with her long 1-2 and kicks, Spencer will get chewed up. Considering the beating we saw her take from Cyborg, we know how tough she is and, unlike Cyborg, Nunes doesn’t have the best gas tank either. It is intriguing, but I rarely feel comfortable picking someone who’s game plan will need to be “take punishment and hope your opponent gets too tired to fight back later”. Nunes is also more than capable on the ground so I’m going to pick Nunes here to defend her title. Amanda Nunes by KO round 2.
Lukasz Fenrych: There’s a pretty good chance Spencer, who is absolutely wild at distance on the feet, just gets starched coming in by Nunes’ clean punching at mid-range, and as Ben says even if she doesn’t fall over she’s in bad shape if the fight stays in that range, but if she can consistently get through that, she’ll have a strong chance, since while Nunes can certainly handle herself in the clinch, she isn’t the same KO threat there and if Spencer can last with Cyborg in close, she can probably survive Nunes and make her work. Since Nunes’ gas tank isn’t the best, that also means the longer the fight goes, the more chance Spencer has of getting the fight into her world and winning on the ground. So with the caveat that an early KO for Nunes is a significant likelihood, I’ll go with Spencer by submission, round 4.
Danny Martin: Lukasz summed up my thoughts. I don’t know how good Spencer is over five, but she’s a tough, aggressive wrestler and grappler and Nunes looked miserable against GDR. It’s WMMA. Spencer via second round TKO.
Mateusz Fenrych: Yeah, just because it’s a title fight doesn’t necessarily mean it should be headlining. But the UFC gonna UFC I guess. I like Nuness personality, but her fighting style, while wild and occasionally exciting is very rudimentary on the feet, something which as Danny alluded to, GDR exposed in her last fight. Spencer is tough, but even less good on the feet. Not to mention, Pennington, Holm, and Cyborg all had reputations as being tough, and it didn’t matter much. Nunes TKO2.
Assuncao vs. Garbrandt
Sriram: Bit of a make or break for Garbrandt, or I guess a "make or break further". Problem is, Assuncao isn't just yet another elite opponent (the last thing Cody needs right now), he's also a uniquely bad matchup for Garbrandt on paper, unless he just falls off a cliff at 37. One of the issues that caused Garbrandt's last 3 losses was his irresponsibility and predictability on offense, as he got laced on the counter by Dillashaw and Munhoz, and Assuncao is a terrific counterpuncher who's defensively more aware (not elite in that respect, but terrific at playing with distance and limiting exchanges, and builds his offense well off parries). Assuncao's careful to the point of inertia on the lead so Cody likely doesn't get his favorite counter-combos easy, he has no way to make Assuncao lead on the outside, and his chasing footwork is often "shifting to get the outside angle and throw hands" (which is problematic both in terms of shifting towards a terrific counterpuncher without ingrained defense, and in terms of giving Assuncao the inside-angle he used so well against both Munhoz and Dillashaw). Garbrandt also struggled with the outside-kicking of Pedro Munhoz, and Assuncao isn't as hard a kicker but a solid one.
The ones who beat Assuncao have been broadly craftier boxers than Garbrandt, less prone to sitting in the pocket and squaring up to throw long thoughtless flurries and more likely to draw counters out, and even those three took some solid and clean shots themselves. Dillashaw and Moraes and Sandhagen were just durable enough to eat them and smart enough to adjust afterwards. I see no reason to trust Garbrandt to be either. Assuncao by KO2.
Philippe: Matchmaking in the UFC is so brutal. The Munhoz booking (one of the most dangerous finishers in the division, and the best chin) was already very stupid, but why would you then book Cody vs Assuncao? It’s one of those “I’m only 1 win away from being back to contention” sort of fights, but that’s short-term thinking and thinking long-term is always the best answer. I wish Cody would go way down and fight Eddie Wineland or Ricky Simon, and slowly but surely improve/correct his flaws and get his confidence back before entering the cage with one of the all time greats of the division. Cody will be much faster than the aging Assuncao, but Cody had a similar speed advantage against Pedro Munhoz and still didn’t make the most of it. So will Cody be disciplined and focused, and fight in-and-out as well as TJ did when he outpointed Assuncao at UFC 200? I highly doubt it.
Assuncao is aging and seems to be an even slower starter than he used to be but he’s still super difficult to beat. Historically one of the hardest punchers in the division with a brilliant and underrated all-around game. There’s never any surprise with Assuncao, he’ll perform well, patiently waiting for his opening and staying focused all fight long. I’m also very confident in Raphael destroying Cody’s lead leg real quick.
So, I can see Cody winning the first round, doing pretty well, until once again he loses focus and patience and Assuncao starts to take over the fight and finishes very strong. Raphael Assuncao via Unanimous Decision.
Tommy: The UFC must have something against Garbrandt now. This is a very unforgiving style matchup for him. He’s never shown either the discipline or the unpredictability in his attacks to beat a guy like Assuncao, and I predict that once Assuncao has his timing (midway through R1 most likely) this will get ugly and Garbrandt will look very bad. Assuncao’s defense is built into his offense in a way that Cody’s isn’t, and given Garbrandt’s inability to resist throwing counters with his chin up he’ll bounce hooks off Assuncao’s shoulders as Raphael jabs and then get countered hard by Assuncao’s follow ups. I don’t know that Cody’s chin is so far gone that Raphael sleeps him, but this should be a pretty rote win for the Brazilian. Assuncao by UD.
Ben: As covered by my colleagues, I do not understand this matchmaking whatsoever. Your former champ has suffered 3 KO losses, displayed a lack of adjustment in those 3 losses, and you book him against a guy who has the exact skillset to take advantage of the mistakes he’s consistently made before? What the hell?
Look, if Cody hasn’t made some real tangible changes to his game, expecting anything other than a 4th straight KO loss is silly. It’s also problematic that Cody does not fight the same way as Assauncao’s most recent opponents that beat him do either. He won’t be able to replicate Sandhagen or Dillishaw’s gameplans, so he will need to beat Assauncao, a vicious counterpuncher, using a different strategy (assuming he doesn’t KO Assuncao, which he can do).
To win, Cody will need to be able to draw out Assauncao’s counters and peck at him from the outside using kicks as well. Don’t engage in long firefights, use the jab often, and feint like hell to throw off Assauncao’s timing and triggers. Cody should not be searching for a KO here, but rather look to limit the dangerous moments in this fight as much as possible. He can do it, and just to be contrarian, I’ll pick him because it would be kind of amusing if he actually comes out composed and picks Assuncao apart. History shows he won’t, but fuck it, MMA. Cody Garbrandt by Unanimous Decision.
Danny: There isn’t much reason to pick Garbrandt here, aside from the fact that he’s blindingly fast and Assuncao is a bit long in the tooth. So, why do I feel like this might be a Misha Cirkunov-type situation, where the broken down prospect finally turns the ship around when everybody has already given up hope? Garbrandt can’t leverage a volume edge unless opponents consistently engage him. If he dives into the pocket the way he did against Munhoz, he probably gets cracked again. Assuncao is a good enough kicker to draw Garbrandt out from range and he’s the smarter fighter to boot. There isn’t much reason to pick Garbrandt here...but Assuncao’s crushing loss to Marlon Moraes isn’t far enough away for me to have confidence. Every fight card needs at least one gut pick. Garbrandt via first round TKO.
Lukasz: As the gentlemen above have summarised, this is a terrible fight for Garbrandt in many ways, but there’s one x-factor: Cody is very fast and very powerful and Assuncao is 37.It should also be remembered though that Cody isn’t terrible at everything all the time: when he’s not got it into his head he’s got to take the lead, which he’s very bad at, he’s got an excellent appreciation of space in the cage and nice timing on his counters. We expect him to get frustrated if Assuncao sits back, but if he can keep his cool he might well be able to outbox the Brazilian in an outside battle. Garbrandt KO 3
Aidan: As mentioned throughout my guest post, I think Assuncao’s overall ability to position himself in exceptional places to land as well as being smart at curbing exchanges with the clinch and with hand fighting will serve him well. Assuncao is a very crafty fighter who, in his prime, dismantles a fighter with Cody’s holes with ease. The only reason I am a bit hesitant in this one is due to Cody’s athleticism vs a (possibly) withering Assuncao. Will a few shots from Cody discourage Assuncao from countering? I do not think so, but it is a real possibility. Raphael Assuncao via UD
Mateusz: Right, so ultimately, I’m expecting Cody to lose here, but with the usual caveats that my colleagues have outlined. Assuncao is in pretty decent nick for 37; he’s not slow, but Cody’s speed is still fairly startling even at bantamweight. However, he usually relies heavily on a trigger to unleash it; his blitzes almost always come as a counter. Assuncao is one of the craftier defensive fighters out there, he tends not to leave himself open while throwing. He also has supreme patience in the cage; his dedication to not leading would bore even 248 Romero.
And herein lies the rub; I think Cody will feel like he has to lead; that Assuncao, possibly now the UFCs premiere crafty vet, will just be able over time to goad him into overcommitting to an attack he feels he has to make to get a much needed win. He is an emotional fighter while Assuncao… just isn’t. And with Cody, that increasingly feels like enough, for a good, established fighter.
And Cody’s chin is fairly well-established as being glassy by this point; I could see Assuncao breaking it, for a TKO3.
Ryan: I’m totally on board with all the reasons others have given to pick Assuncao. I elaborated on this more in my podcast appearance, but Cody is fairly rudimentary on the lead. He tends to stand out of range and cover distance with blitzes, rather than soundly working into range with his jab and footwork. Assuncao is a master of distance, standing just far enough that opponents need to take an extra step to reach him, where he can counter and move away. Cody will have trouble closing distance, and likely lacks the patience to draw Assuncao into his own counters consistently. Meanwhile, Assuncao can rack up points at range with leg kicks and jabs to tease more aggression out of Cody.
The problem, of course, is that it’s hard to trust Assuncao at this point. He’s 37 years old, coming off a two-fight skid for the first time in years, and his volume is waning, which is a big issue for an already low-volume counter puncher. With very little confidence, I’m going to have to favor the youth, aggression, and power of Cody Garbrandt. Garbrandt via TKO
Sterling vs. Sandhagen
Sriram: There's a fighter here I like way more, and I can't really trust him too strongly to pick up the win. Sandhagen is a very fun fighter broadly in the Dillashaw mold, a twitchy volume-boxer who can fight forwards and backwards and builds well off the reads he gets. He's a solid jabber who can fight long, and one of the more committed bodypunchers in MMA, but his response to wrestling is entirely his voracious scrambling once his back hits the ground. That could be a serious issue against Sterling, who's gaining more comfort as a boxer himself, but whose real forte is his wrestling and top-game (which may be the best at 135 right now).
Sandhagen seems like the more viable striker, at least at length parity; he's craftier defensively where Sterling can default to just ducking out, he can jab with Sterling (and the jab was Sterling's saving grace last time out), and Pedro Munhoz got to Sterling's body whenever he tried. I'm struggling to see how he keeps Sterling off him, but I think I'll take the flyer on the younger fighter with more room for growth (being only 5 years into his career, somehow). No fun without a little blind faith. Sandhagen by UD.
Philippe : I’m curious about this fight. I think both guys deserved a 5 round main event spot. I was super impressed with Aljamain Sterling’s performance on the back foot against my man Pedro Munhoz. It took me a long time to believe in Aljo, but after that performance from last year I think he’ll handle fairly well the constant pressure of a game Cory Sandhagen. Cory’s a pretty good scrambler and seems to improve fight after fight but I think Sterling has improved more and possesses more experience that will help him survive/weather the storm. I see Cory starting very well but eventually getting taken down and getting caught in a submission in those scrambles. Aljamain Sterling SUB 2
Tommy: I am really stoked for this fight, it’s the best one on the card by far. These guys have a lot in common in terms of being rangy strikers who like to switch stance, throw leg kicks, and chase subs on the mat. Sandhagen has the better boxing with a consistent jab that can probe or pop, but Aljo has a clear edge in wrestling and is probably the best submission grappler in the division (though Sandhagen himself is right behind him in that respect). Both men like to kick legs, and both rely on sometimes exaggerated head movement for defense. Both men also have a penchant for naked stance switching, which has gotten them both into trouble at times. These guys are both used to fighting with a reach edge, and given that neither one will have one here I expect they’ll each take more shots than they’re used to as they both rely on that reach edge to keep them safe (Sandhagen more so than Sterling). I expect we’ll see a lot of leg kicks exchanged some of which will be very telling if they catch their target out of stance (a vulnerability of constant stance switching), and we’ll also see some ninja shit on the ground as Sandhagen doesn’t defend takedowns so much as counter attack and Sterling will be the best grappler he’s ever faced. This fight is very, very hard to call, but I think ultimately Aljo will edge it out by staying competitive in the striking and racking up points with takedowns and top control. Sterling by SD.
Ed: This is pretty much the only fight I’ve done any research on, so it’ll be really embarrassing if I’m flat wrong. The basic dynamic will likely be Sandhagen applying measured pressure, with Aljo holding ground, sometimes accepting the backfoot role as he did vs. Pedro Munhoz. Until now, Sandhagen’s first line of defense as a wrestler has been “scramble first, ask questions later”. It’s not even that he’s losing out defensively on his first attempt and then funk rolling or knee pulling or initiating some other scramble situation, it’s his first response. That’s important. Aljamain Sterling has a variety of situations he can enter off of, it’s his finishes that usually give him some trouble. So, if Cory Sandhagen is going to be doing the work of making it a grappling match for him, I have to give Sterling the edge. He’s likely the best top player in the division, as Tom said, and I trust him to not be totally undone by any funk - he is “The Funkmaster”, after all. You saw his response to granby rolling and leg passing vs. Cody Stamman, he knew to trap a leg and get height, shutting down the attempt pretty quickly. This one goes to decision, but Aljamain Sterling wins by controlling positions for just a bit longer than Sandhagen. Sterling by UD.
Ben: I am so split on this fight. I really have no idea what to think, because it is entirely dependent on how Sandhagen approaches the wrestling exchanges. On the feet, he’s the more comfortable striker for sure, even with the massive strides we’ve seen from Aljo in that realm. Both of them rely on a heavy volume attack, but both generally fight while moving in different directions (Sandhagen likes to pressure, Sterling is more comfortable moving around and will back up). What makes Sterling so threatening as a wrestler and grappler are that his entries are disguised well by how he strikes. He will lunge forward for both striking and wrestling entries, and his striking also melds into his clinch entries quite well too. This can make it difficult to time his takedown attempts, and with Sandhagen going to be the one coming forward, he will need to have those entries scouted well.
The other problem is Sandhagen’s TDD, which is (as mentioned already) generally focused on scrambling out of positions, or into better spots for himself, rather than stopping the actual takedown itself. Against someone as dangerous on the ground as Sterling, that would be incredibly risky, and completely unnecessary as well. Sandhagen is more than capable on the ground, and his fight with Assuncao alone is more than enough evidence of that, but Sterling is not worth tangling on the ground with if you can avoid it.
On the other hand, Sterling’s improvements on the feet aren’t leaving him bulletproof, and now he’s facing someone who lands at a clip that’s among the top strikes landed rates in the UFC today. When you’re used to being the one who overwhelms your opponent with volume, it will be interesting to see how Sterling handles that. Neither one are going to be landing KO shots is my guess, so it’s likely we see this go to a decision (barring a submission). We’ve seen Sterling gas before, but he’s also seemingly fixed those issues.
Final note, I trust the EFT guys know their fighters and the fight game. I am sure they are going to work to keep things on the feet, but the question is if they can. Assuming that this fight plays out on the feet, I think we see Sandhagen take a high paced, very close fight which will piss off a lot of fans.. Cory Sandhagen by Split Decision.
Danny: I remain unconvinced by Cory Sandhagen. He is a talented, natural competitor for MMA, but I have a hunch that he has a little too much Dillashaw in his style at this stage in his career, without some of TJ’s great parentheticals. In general, he is reliant on his offensive craft without owning much in the way of depth, and his wins recently have come against flat, aged versions of perennial top 10 bantamweights that Cory was able to tough and grit his way through. I don’t like how his defense and ringcraft sputters from time to time, and I’ve seen too much vulnerability from him to convince me that he can’t just be consistently pushed backward and bullied. Sterling has his own mechanical and technical shortcomings, but he’s evolved into a remarkable wrestler and top player, who can largely insulate himself with range and a diversity of kicks. Close fight, but I have a hunch that Sandhagen might be staring down the barrel of a brutal loss fairly soon. Sterling via Unanimous Decision.
Aidan: I am pretty split on this one. Sandhagen can control the exchanges and ruin Sterling’s body with his jab and feints, but his takedown defense is very troubling vs a high level chain wrestler like Aljo. Aljo can also move well, his game is improving at a high rate, and his overall cardio is fantastic. Sandhagen has a tough fight on his hands, but I am not ruling him out. Say he wins a few scrambles, discourages Aljo from shooting, and then picks him apart. That is a real possibility. Still, I like Sterling more here. Aljamain Sterling via UD (Read Aidan’s article on Assuncao vs. Sandhagen!)
Mateusz: The people’s main event. Great fight, and should be viewed as an eliminator of sorts for a crack at the vacant title. I’d have no problem if Sterling’s next fight was for the belt, and if Sandhagen wins this, he’s earned a shot.
Sterling’s striking has really impressed me the last couple of fights. In his fight with Munhoz, he was pushed on the feet, and passed the test. However, it wasn’t all gravy for Aljamain; he looked pretty tired at the end, although not exhausted; however, I would expect Sandhagen to be able to push a more intensive pace than Pedro did.
Moreover, Sandhagen’s reach is the equal of Aljo’s. And he knows how to fight at distance. While keeping up constant movement.
While Sterling looked bang tidy against Munhoz, Munhoz presented none of these caveats, and it felt like a large part of Sterling’s success relied on him just about keeping sufficient range. But keep range he did. And I lean on my more learned colleague’s assessments that if it were to reach the ground - and with Sandhagen’s already commented-on TDD, it seems prudent for Sterling to take it there - the chances of victory start to sway towards Sterling. I’m not certain that either man has the power to knock the other out, so short of a Sterling sub, I shall lean towards a Sterling UD, based on a more well-rounded performance, where it looks relatively equal on the feet, but Sterling takes the edge on the ground.
Ryan: I’m super pumped for this fight, and disappointed it isn’t the main event. Like my colleagues, I’m worried about Sandhagen’s takedown defense here. He relies on scrambling and counter-wrestling rather than stopping the takedown first, and I’m not sure if kimura traps and sweeps will be reliable against Sterling. On the other hand, Sterling is a fairly messy finisher, so if Sandhagen does place a premium on stopping the takedown here, he may have some trouble converting.
On the feet, Sandhagen is the sharper striker, but Sterling’s range might give him some trouble here. Sandhagen likes to throw out a lot of non-committal feeler strikes and fight hands to draw out reactions and pick up reads, but Sterling might spend much of his time out of punching range and refuse to give Sandhagen that data. Sandhagen relies a lot on attritional strikes like body punches and leg kicks to wear opponents down, but three rounds may not be enough to significantly wear on Sterling, especially if he can find moments to implement his grappling. This fight isn’t easy for me to pick, and I’d struggle even more if it was given the 5-round length it deserves, but I like Sterling to stay competitive enough on the feet that his offensive grappling tips the balance toward him. Sterling via UD.
Magny vs. Martin
Sriram: Martin's been a respectable veteran for a weird amount of time now, and the Maia fight showed that he's certainly ranked-level, at least at this point in his career (as that fight should've been a draw). He's a broadly competent and versatile fighter, a terrific grappler who's comfortable on the counter and can also just play a sound jab+legkicks game against fighters as good as Ramazan Emeev. Magny's status as a top-10 gatekeeper has eroded into being more of a top-15 gatekeeper, and unless Martin fights dumb (as Jingliang did, exhausting himself in the clinch against Magny's unassailable endurance), expect him to just legkick and box to a win against an opponent who isn't defensively too strong against either. Martin by UD.
Ben: Magny looked great against Jiangling, but “The Leech” seemingly thought wearing Magny out was a viable gameplan. I have no idea why, but what the hell dude? Magny’s pace, cardio, and toughness have historically been his strong points, and once he gets you tired he can overwhelm you. The problem is that overwhelming Rocco at this stage is….well I can’t see that happening. Rocco has developed quietly into a poised and dangerous striker at WW, and his only loss being to Maia who had to survive some hairy spots against him to get the win. The big question mark here is the low output of Rocco, and if Magny can try and win this by just out-scoring him with volume, but I’m going to go with the more polished technician here. Doesn’t help that Rocco is a terrific defensive grappler. Anthony Rocco Martin by Unanimous Decision.
Philippe : I didn’t expect Magny to keep at bay Li Jingliang that easy last time. I was happily surprised by Magny’s jab and capacity to fight long against a pressure fighter. I always felt Magny’s ranking was always too high in the UFC (he’s been top 10 at some point). My fear for Neil in this match up against Rocco is that once you get past his long jab, he’s very open in the pocket and this time won’t be able to outgrapple Rocco Martin. I think Martin will push the pace, close the distance with feints and can if necessary butcher Magny’s lead leg (which will also help Martin to get Magny down). Would be cool to see Magny surprising me again but this time I think he’s just gonna get overwhelmed. Anthony Rocco Martin by Unanimous Decision.
Danny: As much as I love upsetting everybody with wildcard picks, Martin has grown as a competent fencer at range and Magny is still an absolute mess defensively. Martin via Unanimous Decision.
Ryan: At this point, I think Magny is a bit of an IQ test for fighters approaching the elite, and I think Tony Martin might be establishing himself as that quality of fighter. Martin should control him on the feet with a sound jab and distance management, plus sharp leg kicks that have historically proven difficult for Magny to deal with. Martin is also a great defensive grappler, possession a tight butterfly guard off his back, solid takedown defense, and even competent tactics for standing up against the cage, which will be useful against Magny’s bodylock takedowns. My one concern is that Martin’s most consistent tools on the feet benefit from a reach advantage, and I’m not sure how comfortable he is fighting someone as long as Magny, but I don’t think Magny uses his reach particularly well, and the leg kicks will do a lot in taking away Magny’s jab. Martin via UD
Formiga vs. Perez
Sriram: A depressing bit of booking, one that I don't see going well for Formiga at this point. Perez screwed the pooch against Joseph Benavidez, but he's still a great athlete with strong wrestling who's the more damaging and enthusiastic striker right now; Formiga's classically terrific at sidestepping pure aggression, as he showed against Deiveson Figueiredo (even at a hilarious athletic disadvantage), but his recent performances have seemed more and more dependent on staying on top, and I can't trust that to happen at this stage. Jussier was a terrific defensive boxer and ring general in his prime, and he might make a charging Perez look a bit silly if the Moreno fight was just a misstep, but signs of age tend to be catastrophic at lower divisions and Perez is just the kind to make it clear. Perez via KO1.
Ed: I’m tempted to just decide that Formiga is shot and pick Perez, who I love, on that alone, but I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that. Formiga’s loss to Brandon Moreno was a function of dynamism, skill competency and gameplanning coming together for a beautiful performance. I think Formiga was plain out-fought on that night. You look at Alex Perez and see an aggressive wrestleboxer, one who can smash the body and work in combination. When he does finish his singles or wrestling exchanges on the cage, he makes his work on the mat count. However, Formiga taking down and controlling strong, aggressive wrestlers is nothing new. Perez struggled a bit at closing distance and entering vs. Joseph Benavidez, and Formiga is comparably as crafty when it comes to creating awkward tension from that range. I think we see an inspired performance from Formiga, he’ll read the attacks of Perez and find his clinch or shot entries, and while I’m sure the grappling won’t be one-sided, that initiative will see him through. Formiga by UD.
Philippe: I’m not as sad about Formiga as my handsome colleagues here. I thought Formiga looked good against the stud Moreno. Did Formiga lose a step? Yeah, and it’s been a few fights already. However, I still think his superior control and skills in all aspects of MMA make him able to shut down most flyweights in the world. Jussier Formiga by UD.
Danny: I don’t have a lot of insight on this one, other than something Ryan has been banging on about for years: Formiga doesn’t score well. Perez, on the other hand, is a powerful, large bantamweight who might be a bit of a Charles Oliveira-type (i.e. folding when the opposition stands up to him in a meaningful way). Formiga doesn’t really do that. Perez via Unanimous Decision.
Ben: Formiga by Unanimous Decision.
Ryan: I love Formiga, and this fight has a high chance of making me sad. I share Ed’s temptation, but I’ll go a step further and say that I think Formiga is shot. He’s still crafty defensively, and a great grappler when he’s able to get the perfect entry, but he seems almost incapable of taking scoring actions at this point. His already low volume has withered almost entirely, and he’s having more and more difficulty converting his entries into completed takedowns.
Perez is a great wrestler with strong takedowns and a folkstyle-inspired top game. Most importantly, he throws a lot of volume on the feet, meaning that even if Formiga is able to outslick him, he almost certainly gets drowned in the volume if he can’t find opportunities to grapple. Even if Formiga can take him down or find the back, he’ll likely struggle to do anything with it, as he lacks much in the way of ground and pound or submission attempts these days. The best I can see for Formiga here is a controversial decision in which Perez clearly lands the more significant offense, but Formiga wins off the judges’ attachment to optics and “control.” The pick is, unfortunately, Perez via UD.