UFC 249: The Fight Site Staff Predictions
Photo courtesy of the Ultimate Fighting Championship
Lucky we have other combat sports related interests, or else we’d have been stumped for content the last few months.
But we can leave the history and analysis to one side for a few days at least, as we now have live fights to talk about.
As is customary, The Fight Site crew got together to predict and analyse as many of these upcoming UFC 249 fights as we could. Hopefully you find enough food for thought here to go into this weekend’s card feeling more educated, or more confident when putting your hard-earned down on your chosen winner.
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
Sriram: It’s hard to think of a booking more predatory in recent times, even though the circumstances go a little way towards justifying it. Ultimately for me, I can’t really trust Ferguson right now; it’s been 4 years since his last elite win over a prime Rafael dos Anjos, and in the three fights since, he’s had nontrivial amounts of trouble with opponents built to struggle with the pace and pressure he’s meant to be the best at. The aforementioned RDA being the most comfortable counterpuncher of Ferguson’s recent streak is also noteworthy; dos Anjos is underpowered and Tony could get away with just eating the counter and drowning him in volume anyway, and Gaethje is not one where that works.
Ferguson’s consistent squaring-up on his entries, his tendency to run into even the crude boxing of fighters like Anthony Pettis and get knocked down, the fact that he starts slow enough to arguably drop a round to DONALD CERRONE, it says awful things to me in a fight with a terrific counterpuncher who’s durable as they come and starts quick. It’s just not forgiving, and Ferguson hasn’t faced anyone unforgiving for him in years (and he still hasn’t come out of them cleanly). Gaethje comes out fast, wipes Ferguson out, and violently puts the nails in the coffin of the famed legacy fight at 155. Gaethje by KO1.
Lukasz: The first round is going to be hellfire-tough for Ferguson. This we know. However, for all the problems he brings to the table for Ferguson, I think the reverse is also true. For all that Gaethje’s defense is better than advertised, that fact is built on excellent timing and control of distance. Tony’s bizarre movement leaves him vulnerable: it also gives him an unpredictable lack of rhythm that, along with his length advantage, will get him in positions where Gaethje, with his basic guard and relatively straight-lined movement, won’t be able to defend much. He’ll hit him round the guard, he’ll hit him to the body, he’ll take a lot of fire in doing so but eventually Gaethje will be reduced to exhausted one-punch-at-a-time lunges which will be of no use to him, and the referee will stop it late. Ferguson by TKO 4
Philippe : I’m picking Justin but somehow I’d be extremely sad if Tony Ferguson loses because it’s his last chance ever to get that Khabib fight, when Justin could bounce back from losing. In my book, I will always consider Tony the real lightweight Champ from the day he captured the Interim Lightweight title at UFC 216, until the day he loses, which may very well be saturday. Gaethje by KO2
Mateusz: I am so, so tempted to pick Ferguson; this really is a head-over-heart pick. I adore Ferguson, and he does have routes to victory. But I find it hard to look past the absolute minefield that the first round presents for him. IF he survives the first, as the fight goes on his chances of scoring a late TKO increase enormously; Gaethje’s stamina will never match Ferguson’s, and Ferguson tends to adapt to his opponent’s offence over time too. I could see a third and fourth round even being relatively wide for Tony.
But, I find it difficult to see him granby-rolling out of a Gaethje-applied knock-down. It’s with a heavy heart that I’m predicting a Gaethje KO 1
Danny: The only thing I’d say as a cautionary point is that while Justin Gaethje has evolved and has found a reliable way to score massive knockouts easily, he hasn’t won a fight past Round 2 in almost four years. I’m not saying he wouldn’t be able to continue fighting his fight after 10 minutes, but there might be a point at which he succumbs to his own pace. Anytime an extremely dynamic finisher doesn’t show much beyond their first gear (Marlon Moraes, Paulo Costa, Justin Gaethje), a bit of concern exists when they’re forced into unfamiliar territory. Nonetheless, Justin Gaethje via first round KO.
Ben: It’s no secret that TFS crew holds Justin Gaethje in very high regard, and we all generally have similar feelings on Gaethje’s chances here. Fergsuon, at this point in his career, is too easy to hit, especially early, and is very susceptible to getting into exchanges that are not to his benefit. We also know he is able to overwhelm his opponents via sheer pressure, volume, and grit. If Gaethje hurts Tony and goes hard for the finish early, the chances of him getting it are high. Conversely, if he does not get that finish, Tony taking over the fight against a tired Gaethje is the relatively obvious outcome.
Stylistically, this is kind of a high level layup for Gaethje. Tony needs to force Gaethje to work at a high pace, which will put him in more danger of being finished. If his chin holds up, and Gaethje’s pace is forced to be high for extended periods, he can win. But I can’t rely on that, so for me, Gaethje picks up another KO win. Justin Gaethje via KO round 1.
Ed: There’s not much to point out that hasn’t been said. The most important reads in my mind are that Ferguson starts slow, enters the pocket cold before he’s figured out his range or even gotten into any sort of rhythm, and that Gaethje is a horrible person to have that problem against. Sticking around in exchanges while standing tall and punching straight seems like a good way to eat a massive Gaethje counter. I have no doubt in my mind, Tony is getting bonked early. The question for me is whether or not that will matter, does Tony survive and find his long weapons up the middle, picking away until he wears Gaethje down and drowns him? That’s not impossible, although I think it’s overstated how well Ferguson will do at mid-range, Gaethje’s kicking game will matter there.
It just seems far more likely to me that 36-year-old Ferguson will have a hard time surviving those early exchanges. Justin Gaethje via first-round KO.
Kyle: In the ‘how can Tony Ferguson win’ piece I said: ‘it’s hard to find a route for a Ferguson win via conventional analysis. It just seems to be toughness + late-round violence = Ferguson’s best chance of winning.’
And that’s what I am going with: it seems so obvious that Gaethje is going to upset the apple cart that I think we at The Fight Site can’t all be right...it can’t be that obvious can it, in a fight between two top five fighters?
I’ve picked against Tony Ferguson too much in my life to continue to do it, even if I think Gaethje is poised to beat him and from what I can ascertain about his training camp, which has been excellent and well-prepared him for Ferguson in a way Tony’s famously unconventional training methods might not have done for him.
I say Ferg gets shit kicked early, but eventually grinds Gaethje down. Blood everywhere, naturally. Tony Ferguson by TKO round 4
Tommy: To me this has shades of Volkanovski vs. Mendes insofar as I think it’s highly likely that there’s a moment where Gaethje just makes Tony look old and broken. I suspect that’ll take 2-3 rounds. Justin Gaethje by third round KO.
Matt: This fight seems like a stylistic layup for Gaethje for the most part. Ferguson has been significantly hurt by much lesser punchers in the past and at 37 years old, should be in the twilight of his career. Subpar performances against Cerrone and Pettis, where a pressure performance didn’t force Cerrone to fold immediately, has me very concerned for his chances against Gatheje. Ferguson’s grit and creativity could have him survive the first round, but this is Gaethje’s fight to lose. Justin Gaethje by second round TKO.
Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz
Danny: Henry Cejudo is an undeniably great talent and one of the most thrilling competitors to watch in modern MMA, but this is beyond stupid. Cruz hasn’t won a fight in almost four years, he was already looking slower and more fragile against Garbrandt, and we have absolutely no clue as to what shape he’ll show up in. Fine, give Cejudo an easy finish, but if the champion doesn’t fight Petr Yan in the immediate future, strip him. Henry Cejudo via first round TKO.
Sriram: Henry Cejudo is taking a page out of Cruz’s own playbook with this defense, and his pursuance of a skeletally declined Jose Aldo suggests that bantamweight is tied up for the foreseeable future regardless of who wins this. It’s unfortunate in a division where youth is at a premium. The winner isn’t hard to pick, if only on presumption; I’m not a fan of Cejudo at all but he’s an A+ athlete who’s not easy to wrestle and that leaves him hard for Cruz at the best of times, and being out since 2016 makes it hard to trust him to show in good form. There’s a universe in which prime Cruz outfights Cejudo to a comfortable decision, but that isn’t the one we live in. Cruz is ridiculously strong mentally, there’s a chance he turns back the clock, but they all have to stop doing that at some point, no matter how great. Cejudo by TKO4.
Kyle McLachlan: Is Cejudo actually dealing with a cut around the right eye? And is he going to take the fight just because he’s such a shill for his employer? Cruz looks in good shape, is an excellent wrestler in his own right, and will likely have the defensive nous to keep Cejudo turning and not setting his feet for his punches. But can we rely on Cruz to turn up looking even anywhere near his Garbrandt form? For what it’s worth I don’t think Cejudo has the range or nous to carefully pick his spots against Cruz like Cody did. I think Cejudo will be limited to bum rushing Cruz and trying to ‘young man’ him, and just overwhelming him as he did Moraes, for different reasons here obviously. Maybe I’m just indulging in hero worship here, but I think Cruz takes a decision as his choppy, slashing (but not particularly hurtful) offence can bust Cejudo open and take him off his gameplan.
Lukasz: If Cruz was a younger man, his movement could cause trouble for Cejudo. However, right now, he’s not just old, his movement will be severely impeded by his repeated injuries and he’ll be suffering from general ring-rust. Cejudo by TKO1
Mateusz: Despite Cruz’s assertions that ring-rust isn’t real… I think it is. Especially with FOUR YEARS out of competition. Last time Cruz fought, Ronda Rousey was on the card, and frankly, that feels like a geological age ago.
Sure, a few fights ago, Cruz’s footwork might have posed Cejudo problems, but, despite what you may think of Cejudo’s rematch with Mighty Mouse, he wasn’t exactly left for dead in that department in that fight (yes, I think he lost, but he was not massively out-manouevred).
Yes, Marlon Moraes all-but dismembered him in the first round of their fight, but Cruz is not nearly fast enough, or powerful enough to pose the same problems, which ended up not mattering anyway.
I do think that Cruz’s upper body movement is going to pose Cejudo accuracy issues; his striking, while much improved, is not terribly subtle, and this fight will test to see how adaptable it is. If he shows he can layer in feints and counters, it could end up being a relatively easy win; Cruz’s lack of power means he’s not going to have to worry about absorbing the same amount of power Moraes and Mighty Mouse are capable of dishing out.
Up close though, for all of Cejudo’s wrestling prowess, I do wonder if size could end up being a factor. I get the feeling that however stacked-up Cejudo is on the night, Cruz will end up being the considerably bigger man- he has a considerable height and reach advantage- and he has shown an ability to convert size advantage into dominance in the past.
One x-factor is going to be the apparent cut Cejudo has been sporting pre-fight; if that does split, and it is not a small-looking one, and Cruz manages to work it, as he should, it could be a determining factor.
However, I see Cejudo’s speed and just hide-tough conditioning as instrumental in being able to break an aging and still fragile Cruz down before the end. Cejudo TKO 4
Ed: The physical matchup alone makes me uncomfortable, as a long-time Cruz fan. The stylistic matchup is a little more interesting, as there have been plenty of versions of Cejudo from fight-to-fight that I could see Cruz controlling the entries against and generally having his way. The thing is, Cejudo is close to indestructible and eventually he’ll commit to aggressive pressure. On its face that doesn’t spell doom for Cruz, but if we see a power round kicking game incorporated by Cejudo, like he had against Joe B, that will go a long way in cutting off the cage and punishing Cruz’s typical exits. I’m sure Cruz will have success, but Cejudo getting to him seems like an inevitability. Cruz is tough as hell, he may survive and rally, but it’s a bridge too far to pick him. Cejudo via unanimous decision.
Philippe : Henry Cejudo has become an amazing fighter while Cruz tried to save his career and his body. I wish that fight would have happened when Cruz was in his prime (UFC 132). Nowadays Cejudo athleticism and confidence are at an all time high. One thing going for Cruz is how tough he is and he may still be insanely confident. Coming to the fight itself, I’m afraid Cruz body will break down through the mid rounds and then he’ll have to dig the deepest he ever has to go to the decision. However Cruz’s length advantage is huge and he used to be able to be a weight bully in the past. If Cejudo struggles to counter him he can win this fight but how slow will he look ? His body looked a bit soft when he came back in 2016. I’d pick Prime Cruz over this Cejudo and I’m still gonna pick 2020 Cruz over Cejudo just because for history it would be the craziest thing ever so I’m gonna hope Cruz’s body can hold up and he will fight his fight and use his ring craft and reach in order to. Dominick Cruz by Decision.
Ben: I have always been partial to Cruz as a fighter. For all the things he does off, or “wrong” technically, I really enjoyed his dominant performances. I know I like a fighter when I score a fight for his opponent, yet I just don’t care because I’m happy for them. This fight though, this will make me sad.
Cejudo is absolutely not a finished product, and that’s what scares me. He’s still quite defensively unsound, can go into a fight with the absolute worst game plan, and still win emphatically by being a freak of nature athletically. In this matchup, not only will Cruz have a massive athletic and physical gulf, not helped by his age and plethora of injuries, he will also not be able to use his safety nets.
He is slower, won’t be able to rely on his wrestling game, is the less powerful puncher/fighter, and I can’t imagine he’s more durable either. Cruz’s path to victory would rely on Henry consenting to a long range kickboxing fight, where Cruz can try and peck at Henry’s legs (he is susceptible to leg kicks) and….well that’s it I guess. He’s not going to win a firefight, and let’s be real here, Cejudo isn’t sitting at range for 5 rounds if he thinks he’s losing. Cruz’s movement is going to be an issue for him early, but Henry is also a willing and powerful kicker himself. I think we’re going to see him kick the crap out Cruz’s body in this fight, and it will slow Cruz down real quick. I don’t know if Henry will finish Cruz, who’s proven to be tough as nails himself, so I’ll pick Henry Cejudo by Unanimous Decision.
Tommy: I suspect Cruz’s style will still befuddle Cejudo for a few rounds and he’ll look surprisingly good, but in the end the youth, power, and talent of Cejudo are going to overwhelm the former champ. Once Henry gets Dom’s timing I believe he’s a powerful enough puncher and has good enough speed and timing to catch Cruz on entries similar to Garbrandt. Henry Cejudo by fourth round KO.
Matt: Although a prime, or even a somewhat post prime version of Cruz would easily school Cejudo, there are too many unknowns at this point to have any confidence in a Cruz pick. In a matchup between one of the UFC’s least durable fighters and it’s most, it feels irresponsible to pick Cruz. While Cejudo has a tendency to rely on his insane athletic gifts to overcome, instead of adapting, the worst possible tendency against a guy like Cruz, can you really bet on Cruz making it through a five round fight at this point of his career? Cruz could barely walk in the 5th round against TJ Dillashaw, and with an abbreviated camp due to the coronavirus, I can’t see him making it through this fight. Henry Cejudo by third round TKO.
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik:
Danny: Rozenstruik demonstrated three things in his last bout against Alistair Overeem. #1 was a jab. #2, a leg kick. And most importantly, #3, a commitment to fighting at an agonizing slow pace without ever losing composure or confidence. Given how solvable Ngannou has proven himself to be against opponents who refuse to bite and are simply willing to kick him and move away, I am going to take a flier here that Rozenstruik can emulate the Derrick Lewis gameplan to hilariously boring effect. Jairzinho Rozenstruik via Unanimous Decision.
Sriram: Pretty much what Danny said. Zinho isn’t a dazzling fighter or even a particularly good one, but he’s conservative, and what got dos Santos and Velasquez killed by Ngannou was recklessness. The leg-kick that Ngannou has shown is also running into heavyweight’s best (if not particularly good) counterkicker, so I suspect Ngannou stops kicking eventually. Until I see it, I have no faith in Ngannou to beat a fighter who’s durable enough (as he showed against Overeem) to maybe not just get killed early, and who can sit on the outside and peck like Lewis did. Rozenstruik via UD
Kyle: I am not looking forward to this fight. Mercifully it’s only three rounds. Rozenstruik is relatively safety-first, but I see too much of a gap athletically here. I think Ngannou will land the better punches and win a decision in a fight where not much happens.
Ed: Oof.
Philippe : So I never watched a Rozenstruik fight in my life until like ten minutes ago. When he strikes the opposite hand is always so low (near the hip) and he turns way too much into his punches. He’s getting deaded Saturday night. Think somehow, people still have no idea how much of a cheat code Francis power is. I don’t think that fight last more than a minute. N’Gannou by KO1.
Ben: Danny summed it up nicely: jab, leg kick, patience. This will be boring as hell if we don’t get an early flash KO, which I do not expect to see. The only chance of this getting interesting is if Ngannou is forced to pressure because he gets frustrated, but then he probably gets countered by Jair anyway. Jair Rozenstruik by Unanimous Decision.
Matt: Has Ngannou recovered mentally enough from the Stipe Miocic fight to be able to do anything else beside counter, probably not. Evidenced by the Overeem fight, Rozenstruik has no issue completely avoiding any risk-laden exchanges. Think Ngannou-Lewis, but instead of meme kicks, it’s Rozenstruik throwing one or two leg kicks a minute while you either laugh or cry depending on how jaded you are with this sport. Jair Rozenstruik by Unanimous Decision.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar
Danny: Calvin Kattar has a problem. He should be absolute candy for analysts and fans, but as such a singularly focused technician, issues arise when opponents can configure tactics around his best area (namely, the pocket). Given his issues with rangey, mobile kickers, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of Kattar dropping the ball against someone as unstructured as Yair Rodriguez. Fortunately for the Bostonian, Stephens is not that opponent. He’s a plodding, footslow banger who can’t cut off lateral movement to save his life and has increasingly been looking a bit fragile. This fight is designed to give Calvin everything he asks for in a matchup, but consider me off the Kattar hype train in terms of actual divisional relevance. Calvin Kattar via second round TKO.
Sriram: In the exact opposite camp from Danny on Kattar. He’s comfortably a top-5 talent at 145, in my opinion, and his limitations have been shown by MMA’s craftiest kicker in Renato Moicano and Zabit Magomedsharipov (who not only would have lost wide in 5 rounds, but pulled a very close win in 3). The fights since Moicano have convinced me that Kattar isn’t as hopeless dealing with kicks as that Moicano fight showed; Lamas didn’t get them for free, and Zabit couldn’t fire them off at will to hobble him like Moicano did. If anything, Kattar’s fatal flaw isn’t anything as big as “is BJ Penn against kicks”, he’s just not particularly versatile or tactically-astute. He’s truly elite with his jab, especially against an opponent who wants to push him back, but struggles badly when the jab isn’t there. Make no mistake, that will bite him consistently, but it also isn’t as easy to show as many believe at the level of fighters like Yair Rodriguez (who’s even worse on the back foot than Kattar is on the front foot).
All that pontificating aside, Stephens shouldn’t be particularly difficult for Kattar, at any stage but especially now. He’s exactly the kind of “wants to pressure but isn’t good at it” kind of fighter than Kattar is most equipped to fight with his jab and his terrific footwork on the outside, he was befuddled by the outfighting of Yair Rodriguez of all people, and is massively outslicked in exchanges that he can’t avoid with length the way Zabit did. The kicking game might annoy Kattar, but there isn’t a reason to think that Stephens’ lack of consistent process around his kicks would equip him any better than Lamas was. Kattar’s window is closing for sure, he’s a finished product and his time to make a mark is short, but Stephens is one that he should take extremely decisively. Kattar by KO1.
Mateusz: Kattar should win this relatively easily.
Stephens is not a subtle striker; a very dangerous and effective one when allowed to be, sure. But Kattar has shown both an ability to adapt to adjustments (Kattar-Burgos) against a strong volume-striker, and also flummox a strong but relatively hand-and-footslow wrestle-striker, using astute feints and combinations (Kattar-Lamas).
Stephens has got that leg-kick that he’s taken on to great effect recently, but although I feel it probably does to some extent remain a weakness of Kattar’s in his last two fights he’s shown some evidence of having worked on it.
Kattar may not have the explosive power of a Gaethje, but he hits hard and accurately to attritional effect, and I can see this wearing down Stephens’ chin before the end. Calvin Kattar TKO 3
Lukasz: There’s a non-zero chance that Kattar gets himself knocked out of balance by a kick and gets slumped, but the overall difference in speed and striking skill is such that the chance of that is nonetheless quite low. However, despite his huge technical advantage in the pocket, I think Kattar will be a bit careful about finding himself in range for prolonged periods, leading to a slightly low-paced fight and a Kattar decision.
Ed: Thus far, we’ve really only see Kattar struggle with outfighters, outside of those brief early exchanges with Chris Fishgold. It’s extremely unlikely Stephens becomes a competent outfighter overnight, so his two options are to essentially concede initiative and try to hack at his legs and bomb from mid-range, or to pressure in hard. If Stephens chooses to pressure, I think he’s cooked. His entries are often reckless and Kattar thrives on the counter, especially when there’s a good deal of space to cover. The mid-range kickboxing match is a little more interesting, but I don’t see how Kattar doesn’t jab him up. As long as the range is right he can probably shoot counters down the middle when he sees Stephens loading up on naked kicks. Kattar by unanimous decision.
Kyle: I’m picking Kattar to win a decision, I can see Stephens winning the first round as Kattar is a slow starter. Then I see the second round being competitive as Kattar finds his groove. Perhaps the first round made Stephens more confident and he puts it together, meaning the inevitable strong third round for Kattar makes this a closer fight than it should’ve been. Kattar by close decision
Tommy: Great fight for Kattar to look excellent. Stephens is tough, but while he has some tools to get inside and do work Kattar has better tools for staying at range and picking Heathen off on his entries. Expect many, many Kattar jabs and 1-2s to pivoting off to safety while Stephens misses winging trigger counter hooks. Kattar by unanimous decision.
Philippe : Great fight. I wish Jeremy was a bit younger, he’s been hit a lot to the body lately and Kattar is a great body puncher. Jeremy’s not the best kicker in the division but he can still do it and Kattar Isn't the best at dealing with this. I give the power advantage to Jeremy and just cause I’m a fan of him I’ll pick Jeremy Stephens to get a late stoppage after getting outbox and outclass for more than 10 minutes. Jeremy Stephens by KO3.
Ben: Stephens is a tough out for many guys, but Kattar does seem tailor made to beat him. His issues with leg kicks/kickers at distance came from Moicano and Magomedsharipov, and while Stephens is a pretty active leg kicker, he is not as rangy nor as dextrous as they are with their kicks.
Kattar’s toughness is a factor here, because Stephens does hit very hard still, but it’s unlikely we see him land a lot of bombs. He does have a path to victory, but it would involve smart pressure and cage cutting footwork we don’t see him use consistently at all. Kattar should be able to just land the 1-2, slip and avoid the return fire, and made Stephens swing at air for most of the night.
We have seen Stephens bust out his wrestling occasionally as well, but Kattar has very good wrestling defense, better than Stephen’s offense I’d say. I appreciate Phil picking Stephens to break the chain, but I gotta go Calvin Kattar by KO round 2.
Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis
Kyle: I’m still going to take Pettis in this one. It won’t be like their first fight, but I still think Pettis’ body kicks will make Cerrone think twice before trying to throw hands with him. It will be messy and scrappy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was very exciting in a, these two guys are way past their best and can’t get out of the way, kinda’ thing. Pettis by decision
Sriram: This is a really weird sort of damaged-goods fight, isn't it? I want to take Pettis just on presumption, but I have the feeling Pettis has declined more than Cerrone has; he looks extraordinarily brittle physically and managed not to beat a Nate Diaz off a layoff as a kicker, where Cerrone has just lost badly to guys he would always lose badly to. Pettis has never been a strong decision-winner, so if the fight gets past a certain point, I think Cerrone might start putting it together on volume against the sharpshooter, and Pettis has a counterpunch but isn't really comfortable enough on the backfoot for me to say he consistently punishes Cerrone running at him. In general, though, I'll still ride with Showtime; the same was kind of true for Diaz but if Pettis goes "I'll be southpaw and spam kicks to the body" early as he did the first time, I don't know what a slow-starting glass-bellied Cerrone is even prepared to do about it. Pettis by KO1.
Philippe : Picking Anthony Pettis very confidently here. Pretty good matchup for him to win. Yes, he lost to Nate at 170 and then got tapped out by Diego Ferreira, but do you think Cowboy would have done any better? Pettis is still faster, better hands, better on the ground. Actually I think Cerrone takes him down and we get some cool moments on the ground. But overall I pick Pettis via Unanimous decision in a fun fight.
Mateusz: Just two old, brittle chaps, throwing down until one crumbles. This is actually some of the more even matchmaking on the card, in as much BOTH fighters seem to be on the way out, and increasingly brittle physically. I’m throwing tactics out of the window for this one: I think Pettis’ recent propensity for breaking something and deciding he won’t continue will kick in before Donald’s recent propensity to shell up into defeat does. Cerrone round 2 (Corner retirement)
Ben: Both of these guys are physically nowhere near their primes. Cerrone is coming off 3 straight KO/TKO losses in increasingly devastating fashion (albeit against stronger competition) while Pettis has 2 straight losses in which he took a fair amount of damage.
That being said, Pettis seemingly still has something left for at least the first round, compared to Cerrone, and a lot of the same issues that existed in the first match still hold true. Pettis is still much more dynamic and will definitely do his best to kick the hell out of Cerrone’s body. Cerrone has gotten better at dealing with pressure over the years, but his physical decline may not allow him to survive an early onslaught on this point.
I predict we see Pettis come out guns blazing and takes Cerrone out quickly. Maybe Cerrone can make this a grappling match, but that doesn’t make the fight easier by any means (though I would love to see these two on the mat). Anthony Pettis by KO round 1.
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabricio Werdum
Kyle: Well at least we know Werdum won’t get neck cranked, but I have no idea what shape he will be in or what he has left. Still, I’ll pick the superior grappler, assuming that he doesn’t have the twitch anymore to utilise his (pretty impressive) striking as he did in his championship run. Oleinik hasn’t been submitted for the best part of two decades, but I think that’ll change here. Fabricio Werdum SUB 1 (armbar)
Sriram: On paper this is cool, because Werdum kind of served as a higher-level Oleinik for a good deal of his career; he was a dangerous sub artist from any position, and was covered by pure aggression and volume on the feet. If they faced off during Werdum's championship run, I'd take Werdum with superlative confidence, as Oleinik is less a tip-top grappler and more one full of fun meme finishes. With Werdum looking shot in his last fight three years ago, though, I'll take Oleinik. Werdum gassed super-badly last time out, and I just generally suspect he's less used to fighting old-and-shot than the heavyweight master of being both. Oleinik by KO3.
Philippe : Werdum is cool when he do stuff and doesn’t fish for armbar from guard for 15 minutes. He’d probably be a bit stiff on the feet for his comeback so I think this goes to the ground first and we get a nice Werdum submission early. Could be an armbar or a Kimura. Fabricio Werdum via SUB1.
Matt: Usually when a fighter hasn’t picked up a win in over four years, and had one of their worst performances in their last fight, it’s probably the smart decision to pick their opponent. The issue is that Oleinik’s main path to victory is via-submission, and I can’t see him having any success against the former two time ADCC champ unless he’s added any sort of ground and pound to his arsenal. Fabricio Werdum via Unanimous Decision.
Ben: Werdum’s last fight showed his age, but against a young (Volkov is a child by HW standards), tough striker. He dominated on the ground for most of the fight too. Oleinik is ridiculously slow, and isn’t particularly good at defending takedowns. This is also a 3 round fight, and if Werdum has slowed before, it does take him time to get there. Not like Oleinik is known for his tank either. On the feet, Werdum can likely kick him a bunch at range. On the ground, I expect Werdum to slaughter Oleinik. One thing we might see is Werdum play it safe and just control him, but otherwise I have Fabricio Werdum by submission round 1.
Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson
Philippe : Can it be one of those fights that analyst would sell as if it goes to the ground Esparza will have the advantage and if it stay on the feet it’s gonna be good for Michelle but actually ends up more complex than that and finish in a somewhat competitive fight where conditioning and composure will play the most important factor ? Michelle is definitely the most explosive fighter out of the two and It might take a lot of effort from Esparza to get it to the ground.
I can see Michelle losing the first round and then taking over though and outlasting the former champion. Carla’s top game is pretty solid, I’m just thinking that Waterson speed and explosion on the ground might be just enough for her to get an armbar off her back as she’ll move her hips and explode much faster than a tired Esparza. I can see Michelle losing the first round and then taking over though and outlasting the former champion. Michelle Waterson SUB3 (Armbar)
Kyle: I’ll take Esparza to grind out a victory here. I don’t trust either fighter too much nowadays, but would prefer to see Waterson win it. I just think Esparza knows what her strengths are, and will grab hold of Waterson enough to negate her strengths, and Esparza isn’t the easiest to submit either. Esparza by decision
Ben: Much as I enjoy Michelle and her story, she’s a known commodity. Carla’s become quite adept and safely controlling fighters on the ground, and Michelle’s flash sub game is not going to stop her I think. Doesn’t help that Waterson’s takedown defense isn’t exactly bulletproof. Couple that with her gas tank issues and a grinding fight should go Carla’s way. Carla Esparza by Unanimous Decision.
Uriah Hall vs. Ronaldo Souza
Philippe : tough fight to call. Two years ago I would pick Jacare pretty easily because I think he would be able to get the fight to the ground but lately it’s been a massive struggle for him. If he stills hits hard he’s being very slow and his cardio is pretty bad. Impossible to know which Uriah We will see but I thought he looked better lately. I’m still gonna pick Jacare Souza via SUB2 (Arm-Triangle choke)
Kyle: I still think Jacare can win on the feet, he has a nasty right hand and Hall can sleepwalk through rounds as much as he can pull off some cool flashy shit. Even well past his best I just trust Jacare to get the job done. Jacare KO1
Mateusz: Uriah has—like Philippe says—looked a little improved in recent times, although still hardly a methodical world beater. If Jacare decides to keep it standing, which I sort of suspect he will given his apparent love for kickboxing recently, I can see Uriah catching the increasingly careworn Jacare cold and laying him out. Hall TKO 2
Matt: Jacare deserves better than this. Despite all he has accomplished in the sport, Jacare has been sapped of his athleticism, and what better way to exploit that by having him fight one of the most athletic fighters in the UFC. Evidenced by the Gastelum fight, Jacare does not have the stamina to grapple with his opponents for any significant period of time, limiting his paths to victory. Hall has enough craft on the feet to beat Jacare, and I would not be surprised if a Mousasi-esque finish occurs. Hall via Unanimous Decision.
Ben: This is going to come down to Hall’s ability to outfight vs. Jacare’s declining physical attributes. Easy pick for Jacare on paper if you made him a bit younger, but now….he’s just so low output and Hall’s improvements are a factor. I can absolutely see Hall just peppering Jacare for 3 rounds with strikes, mostly jabs, while Jacare refuses to throw more than 2 strikes a minute.
Hall’s takedown defense is solid and his athleticism is always a factor, but if Jacare can get Hall down like Carlos Junior did, I don’t know if Hall survives that. I’ll pick Jacare to pull out one more good performance, but I don’t feel good about it. Jacare Souza via Submission round 1.
Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price II
Philippe : I hate this matchmaking. Luque struggled early against Niko in their first fight then adjusted in the second round and took over. I’m gonna pick Vicente Luque in a brutal fight that unfortunately will confirm that he is slowing down and has been one of the worst mismanaged fighters in the UFC. Prelims action fighter who could have been much more. I love Vicente, I’m just mad about all this. Vicente Luque by TKO3 who will be saved by his kicks in this one.
Mateusz: I’ve got Luque fairly simply for this one. While Luque can get dropped, it’s usually by attritional fighters who can land with reasonable accuracy on his massive, otherwise durable jaw, and well, Price ain’t that.
Luque has an understated but very fundamentally sound game; he is capable of enough defensive responsibility to keep Price’s unreconstructed silly violence at bay, and working his way close enough to gain a TKO2
Kyle: I gotta’ go with Luque to bounce back here. I like both fighters, but will take Luque who won the first one even though he took it on short notice. Luque by decision
Ben: Luque has not declined physically enough to make me think this ends in any way other than a Vicente Luque KO round 2.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Charles Rosa
Philippe : Charles Rosa destroys him and makes a good comeback. Rosa is good on the ground and has much better striking than Bryce. I’m not very impressed by Mitchell’s wrestling so I expect Charles to win a unanimous decision
Kyle: I hope Charles Rosa wins, and that’s all I gotta’ say about that.
Sam Alvey vs. Ryan Spann
Philippe : Ryan Spann knocks him out inside 1 minute.
Matt: The UFC really knows how to excite an audience, who hasn’t seen a live sport in over two months, by bringing out a guy one fight away from being the next Conor McGregor. Alvey has somewhat of a left hand, but Spann should be able to finish him within two rounds. Spann via 2nd Round TKO
Kyle: I know they’re doing the best they can in terms of availability but this fight doesn’t excite. The prospect of Spann continuing his decent run does though, and it seems likely as Alvey has finally been condemned to the ‘irrelevant’ pile, whereas he would always spring up with enough of a face-saving performance that he would continue on in the UFC. I think Spann will beat him up. Ryan Spann by decision