The Fight Site Boxing Preview, March 25th- Benavidez vs Plant and more
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Most of our attention will be on Plant vs Benavidez, of course, but there’s a couple of other fights of note going on too. Let’s take a look.
David Benavidez vs Caleb Plant
Super-middleweight
Let’s start with the big show, though. This is a matchup long in the making- back before Canelo busted in and took all the belts, these were the top two in this division, and they’d been circling each other for years. It never quite came together, but between Benavidez’ adventures with drugs and weight misses, and Plant’s loss to Canelo, they have a lot to prove here. Neither are old - Benavidez, at 26, may be just coming into his prime- so it shouldn’t be past its sell-by date.
It’s a fascinating fight stylistically, too, bringing two very different fighters together. Plant is a slick outboxer, comfortable at long and mid-range and capable of using a shell guard and shoulder roll as it should be used. Benavidez is a high-volume aggressor, with very fast hands thrown in accurate, well-picked combination. Where the fight will be decided is most likely where each fighter can most get at his opponent’s weaknesses.
To elaborate a bit, then: Plant uses his stance and footwork to cover and slip incoming punches, then take advantage with sharp single counters or short combinations. His shoulder roll works in that, unlike many Mayweather imitators, it’s connected to his whole stance. He’s not just waggling his shoulder, he’s lining up his entire body behind it, which blocks many angles of attack with maximum efficiency. He also uses it to set up attacks- rolling to the outside while dropping his left hand for example, setting up shots to the body from wider than his opponent was set for.
That kind of thing will be useful against Benavidez, who despite improvements in this area over the years does not move particularly well. Specifically, he’s still only starting to actually integrate step-and-slides consistently, which often leaves him off-balance while moving. If Plant can bait shots at mid-range and evade them, he’ll have a good chance of drawing his opponent off-balance to chase him, and shots in those moments will be hurtful.
He’ll need to make that success count, though, because the counter is that when he’s in close, his defence tends to come apart. He has no real defensive layers- his head movement can protect him from two or three strikes, but after that he’s off-balance and has shown no good way to reset. He also doesn’t have much of a guard, and Canelo showed he can be physically shoved around.
This, of course, will be blood in the water to Benavidez. The younger man isn’t just aggressive and high-volume- he has a huge array of punches he can throw in any given situation, he picks his combinations in response to what his opponent is doing, and he’s very fast. It’s precisely the right combination of factors that, if he does get close enough, Plant will find it very hard to react on time.
That makes it hard to predict how the fight will go, because if either one’s weaknesses are found too easily it could be a blowout, despite being a very close fight in skillset and level. But don’t be surprised to see Plant get success early, but if he fails to find a knockout, then start to break down, and be hanging on in the later rounds.
The Undercard
There’s a pretty strong undercard here. Canadian Cody Crowley, at welterweight, is jockeying for position as the heirs to Spence and Crawford gather. He won’t be first in line, but as a hugely aggressive, high-volume fighter with decent skills, he’ll be hoping to pick up enough of an audience to boost him a bit. He’s certainly worth watching, even if his opponent Abel Ramos probably isn’t really going to threaten his record.
Possibly the real pick of the bunch is a recovering-prospect clash as Chris Colbert steps in with Jose Valenzuela. Both lost upsets last year, and while Colbert had reached the higher level before he got unexpectedly dominated by Hector Garcia, he’s stepping up in weight to Valenzuela’s lightweight turf, so both are in new territory. It’s another matchup between outboxer- Colbert- who proved limited when Garcia managed to crowd him, and a high-volume aggressor. (Valenzuela is a gym-mate and close friend of Benavidez, and you can see the similarities, though his footwork is a lot slicker- but does still leave him vulnerable at times. It should be interesting.
We also have a clash of undefeated prospects, as Joey Spencer and Jesus Ramos lay their 0s on the line. Of the two, if either one is to reach world level you’d think it would be Spencer, with his slick defence well-connected to his creative short combinations, but Ramos is no mug and this fight should tell us a lot about both.
Jose Ramirez vs Richard Commey
Super-lightweight
The other fight on US time this weekend sees the return of Jose Ramirez after a year out. He’s not chosen an easy fight, as Richard Commey is a crafty veteran who last year gave Jose Pedraza a solid test and a draw on the record. But, well, Ramirez should be winning: Pedraza seemed to make mistakes in the early rounds, of hanging out trying to win power exchanges with Commey with a leaky defence. Ramirez, though an aggressive fighter, is more patient and more controlled. He’ll push at Commey, who’ll land some work, but he’ll do so with more restraint, letting much of the veteran’s work land on his guard before throwing his own. He’s also likely to test the 36-year-old’s gas tank, and since Commey is not a natural at this weight, the size advantage will factor too. Still, if for whatever reason you’re not watching Plant vs Benavidez, this should be decent entertainment.
The undercard
The co-main sees a unification at women’s minimumweight, as Seniesa Estrada fights Tina Ruprecht. Between the two of them, Estrada is more of the aggressor while Ruprecht is a volume counter-puncher. Ruprecht is probably the more skilled of the two, with Estrada having a tendency to overbalance that may be used against her. However, Ruprecht is known as ‘Tiny Tina’ for a reason - at 4 foot 10, she gives up four inches in height to Estrada. Since Estrada knows how to leverage her physicality quite well, Ruprecht will have to be at her sharpest here.
Other than that, rising lightweight Raymond Muratalla will be looking to live up to his ‘Danger’ nickname and build on his impressive KO record, against Humberto Galindo. Muratalla is hittable but goes for it big-style when he sees an opponent hurt, so he should be fun.
Laurence Okolie vs David Light
Cruiserweight
Lastly (though actually first, being in the UK), we have this, with Okolie defending his WBO belt in a promotional debut with Boxxer and Sky. Light earned this shot by beating Brandon Glanton in a tough scrap in December. He’s not a bad fighter, but it seems unlikely he’ll have enough for Okolie. Either he’ll be too slow to get close easily- in which case we might see the smooth outboxing Okolie who occasionally makes an appearance. Or he will close range, at which point he’s almost certainly not got the tools to deal with the more commonly-seen awkward bastard clinch fighter Okolie. It’s not a dead fight by any means, and Light will certainly be there- travelling from Australia- to cause the upset, but it should play out like a tune-up. A good one, but still a fight Okolie is expecting to win.
The undercard
There’s not a lot on the undercard. Probably the most notable is Frazer Clarke, at heavyweight, making a bit of a step up after a ropey opening to his pro career. Bogdan Dinu is on a two-fight skid, but those two fights were against Daniel Dubois and Kevin Lerena- fighters far better than what Clarke has seen so far as a pro. If he’s lacking, Dinu might find that out. Beyond that, Boxxer are a promoter still building out their roster, and a lot of the fighters that would often be filling out a card like this are instead leading their own shows or co-headlining on others. Still, they’re looking to bring some prospects through, so it’s worth keeping an eye on at least.