Terence Crawford vs Israil Madrimov: 3rd of August Boxing preview
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JULY 29: Terence Crawford celebrates with the championship belt after defeating Errol Spence Jr. in the World Welterweight Championship bout at T-Mobile Arena on July 29, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Terence Crawford returns to the ring this weekend, a year after his all-timer performance against Errol Spence. He’s now stepping up to 154 for a new challenge, challenging Israil Madrimov for his WBA title. While Crawford is definitely favourite, Madrimov is no mug, and should provide some interesting looks for Bud to react to. The fight tops a strong card, with a whole bunch of interesting, potentially entertaining matchups. Let’s take a look.
(one note: I’m going off the fight order Matchroom - one of multiple promoters involved- have on their website. Possibly the order on the night will be different)
Terence Crawford vs Israil Madrimov
Light Middleweight
What is there to say about Crawford that hasn’t been said already? He’s modern boxing’s great all-rounder, able to fight at any range, both leading and countering as necessary. We don’t know exactly what he’s going to do, but it’s going to be about controlling range, figuring out the timing and angles of Madrimov’s approaches, and then punishing him for them.
That’s for a pretty simple reason: Madrimov is very good, he might even be the best Crawford has faced so far. At range, his lateral movement and proactive head movement will have Crawford reacting and working harder to find him than most of his opponents, and he pushes opponents back with a good jab and lots and lots of feinting, with feet and hands. In close, he’s got a creativity and mobility that’ll test Bud’s defence. Not that you wouldn’t expect someone as good as Crawford to find answers eventually, but he’s a tricky customer.
Perhaps most importantly, when in closer in particular he has a big variety both of punches and of movements to set them up, so even if (when) Crawford starts baiting him with seeming openings, he’ll have more than one option to try to exploit them, making him unpredictable.
It’s the transition between the two that will likely be Madrimov’s biggest problem, though. Simply put, he’s got a tendency to rush that transition, too often either coming over his front foot while chasing punches, or simply leaping. It is an issue he’s very definitely worked on in recent fights, but it’s still there, and there is literally no boxer in the world right now better at drawing out dangerous instincts than Crawford.
In other words, we might see Crawford take a little while to make sure he’s comfortable at the weight and that he knows what he’s dealing with in terms of Madrimov’s feints and setups, but eventually we’re likely to see him holding position and indulging exchanges for just a little bit, to encourage Madrimov that he’s got some momentum, then adjusting and drawing back a half-step to draw that pitch over the lead foot. The uppercut will be a good punch for him there, but also hooks. In particular look out for the reaction to Madrimov’s step-in jab- it’s an important tool for the Uzbek fighter, but he tends to drop his right hand as he throws it, and Crawford may well be smelling check left hooks in answer to it.
And that, really, sums up the problem: Madrimov is a good, potentially even great, fighter, but you can point to clear tendencies for an opponent to target. That really just isn’t true of Crawford- you pretty much only ever see him punished for a mistake once before he closes the gap. If it shows up again after that, it’s usually a trap. And it’s a big jump - Crawford is by far the best opponent he’s faced as a pro, so Madrimov hasn’t really had to make those kind of in-fight adjustments in adversity. And having your first real adversity be against Terence Crawford is… tough. There’s gonna be no time to learn.
So Terence Crawford will almost certainly win, probably by mid-late-round KO, but it should be entertaining, and we should see his skills given a workout till he does.
Isaac Cruz vs Jose Valenzuela
Super Lightweight
The co-main event sees Cruz put his WBA title on the line against Valenzuela, an exciting rising contender on the fast track - surprisingly fast at first glance, given he’s on a title shot having won two of his last three. Really though, he should have won both against Conwell, and his upset loss to Edwin De Los Santos was one of those things- he got sloppy and got caught. Either way, this should be a good one.
Cruz, we know: he’ll mostly be bullying forward, crouched low, chin down, making it rough and as dirty as he can while colouring within the referee’s lines, and throwing flurries of looping punches to head and body. That makes him sound crude, but he isn’t really- he’s surprisingly tough to hit, especially clean, with decent proactive head movement and level changes as he steps in. And though his combinations will never be called lovely, he’s not just whaling away- his physical approach is about setting up the gaps for him to throw into, and though he does loop, that’s in large part by design- limiting his opponents’ movement options and enabling him to throw from odd, hard-to-block angles.
Additionally, and this could be important against Valenzuela, he’s not bad at mid-range- sure, being in close is his bread and butter, but if an opponent makes it hard for him to stick there, he has answers with corralling shots to catch them on the move.
Valenzuela is very different. Also a high-volume fighter, but that’s where the comparisons end. A purveyor of flash footwork and flash combinations, he’s very visibly a guy who likes to put on a show. That can get him in trouble- his loss to De Los Santos came when he just got too cocky about exchanging without much defence. It’s fair to say he’s worked on it since then, but he can still be vulnerable, in particular when he tries Lomachenko-like movement in close without Lomachenko’s corresponding head movement.
This is a pretty big jump in levels for him, so it’s possible he’ll simply be out of his depth- but if he’s not, he’s got a good chance, style-wise. Cruz, before he won his title, fought Giovanni Cabrera last year, and although he won reasonably clearly (though not according to the judges), he had some issues with Cabrera’s movement. His aforementioned facility with fighting at mid-range got him over the line, but Cabrera was not interested in engaging him at that range, he just wanted to jab and move.
If Valenzuela can keep Cruz from getting too close, throw his volume, and then get clear, Pitbull will struggle. Because while he can throw at those ranges, he’s not a volume puncher in the same way he can be in close. He’s not going to match the numbers unless he pins his man down. That said, what he might do is take advantage of the aforementioned vulnerability in Valenzuela’s head movement- if he catches him with one of his looping intercepting hooks while Valenzuela looks to spin out, he’ll hurt him.
It is, in other words, stylistically a very well matched fight, and should be a pretty decent war whatever happens. Look out for it.
Andy Ruiz vs Jarell Miller
Heavyweight
The card’s top heavyweight attraction gives us, to put it delicately, a meeting of the big fellas- and of two fighters with troubled careers. Andy Ruiz has gone nowhere since his fights with Anthony Joshua in 2019, taking two fights in the time since. One of them was a close, but relatively decent, win over the aging Luis Ortiz in 2022, but even still, there’s no momentum for a fighter who was already known for a lack of discipline.
Still, his opponent is Jarrell ‘Big Baby’ Miller, and while he’s been more active- four fights since his return from a drugs ban after popping for basically everything in 2019, when he should have been the one fighting Joshua, and in 2020- his discipline is not notably better. He’s never been a small man, but before his ban, he used to weigh in anywhere between 270 and 300lbs, creeping up to about 315 in the last year.
Since returning, he’s been tipping the scales at over 330, and as an active come forward fighter in style, he just cannot keep up his energy levels. That showed in his last fight against Daniel Dubois, where he performed reasonably well but totally ran out of gas and got taken out in the 10th and final round.
So, stylistically, how do they match up? Well, Ruiz is, when fit, the more mobile of the two and definitely the better technician, a neat combination counterpuncher with some decent head movement. Miller is more basic, marching forward behind a decent jab then delivering pretty loopy, loaded up power shots.
That means realistically if fit Ruiz should have the goods here, but Miller’s style is, despite the caveat about his energy levels over 12 rounds, far less dependent on being in good shape. Sure, he’ll run out of puff if he’s too big, but it won’t make too much difference to his style if he does. Ruiz, meanwhile, does have more of a risk of just unravelling from the start- he relies on bouncy movement and rapidity, and if he can’t bring that, he’s not got much else.
That makes it a hard fight to predict, seeing as we won’t really know who’s in better shape till they get going.
Jared Anderson vs Martin Bakole
Heavyweight
The next heavyweight fight down the bill also features a big lad- well, it features two, but you know what I mean. Jared ‘the real Big Baby’ Anderson, despite his name, is not really that- he’s a heavyweight athlete, a fast, explosive guy whom America’s future heavyweight hopes have been hanging on for a while. His most recent performance, plus some out-of-ring issues, have slowed that momentum somewhat, so he’ll need, to show up well here.
It won’t be easy though. Martin Bakole is an absolute barrel of a man, enough that his movement is clearly limited but he’s quite crafty and his hands aren’t slow. Since a 2018 loss to Michael Hunter, he’s built up a bit of momentum, notching some decent wins along the way. He’ll be a test for Anderson.
One of the defining aspects might well be how straight-lined Anderson is or isn’t. Until now in his career he’s often relied on his speed somewhat, moving in and out without much deviation from the center line. That showed up in a couple of dodgy moments against Charles Martin, and against both Martin and his most recent opponent Ryad Merhy, he struggled to cut off the ring as they circled- even if he won both fights comfortably.
He probably won’t have the latter problem against Bakole, but he will have to walk through fire. The Britain-based Congolese fighters’ recent performances have been characterised by smacking opponents really hard a few times, then basically refusing to engage on their terms, either following them around at a leisurely pace or waiting for them to come to him.
That seems like a pretty basic, exploitable gameplan, and eventually it will be- but the thing, at its core, is that Bakole hits really, really hard. The hardest shots of a Deonay Wilder or Zhilei Zhang might be harder, but it’s the ones they set up. With Bakole, pretty much anything he throws can set an opponent reeling if it catches them. And, though his feet are slow, as I say he throws reasonably quickly, he’s not Joe Joyce.
Anderson is certainly fast enough to avoid him if he comes correctly prepared, it’s just that till now it’s not clear if he has that in his locker. Even the fastest fighter is catchable if they just come straight in, and Bakole’s certainly smart enough to take advantage.
It is, of course, also possible that Anderson wins another dreadful decision if he can establish his jab without getting too close. Let’s hope not, but it’s on the table. That said, I do quite fancy Bakole here- even if he doesn’t win, I think we’ll see Anderson look uncomfortable.
David Morrell vs Radivoje Kalajdzic
Light Heavyweight
The final two fights on the main card feature a pair of Cuban fighters, both looking to make themselves stars. At light heavyweight, David Morrell steps into the division with a ‘title’ fight (Bivol holds the ‘super champion’ title. This ‘world’ really just makes Morrell top contender). His opponent, Radivoje Kalajdzic, hasn’t done a huge amount since losing to Artur Beterbiev five years ago, but he’s a decent fighter who packs a punch. You’d expect Morrell- an extremely explosive, aggressive fighter- to score the KO at some stage, but it’s not without risk, especially since Morrell does on occasion leave his chin hanging out as he leaps forward.
Andy Cruz vs Antonio Moran
Lightweight
And last (or first), but not least, Andy Cruz has his fourth fight as a pro, and his biggest test yet. Antonio Moran isn’t really a world-level contender himself, but he’s fought at the level against the likes of Haney, Jose Pedraza, and most recently Jamaine Ortiz, and how Cruz stacks up should tell us whether he’s really got the goods we think he does. He should, if we’re honest, win pretty comfortably, but he’s Andy Cruz, it’s gonna be fun.
There isn’t really much of a prelim card, but there are two fights - Steven Nelson vs Marcos Vasquez Rodriguez, and Saudi prospect Ziyad Almaayouf against journeyman Michał Bulik.
Other business this weekend
I won’t preview them, but there are a couple of cards worth looking out for on the other side of the Atlantic too. First, Sky and Boxxer have a show headlined by Zack Chelli vs Dulla Mbabe, facing off for Chelli’s British and Commonwealth super middleweight titles. Caroline Dubois also features, fighting Maira Moneo for an interim WBC title at lightweight, and there’s a bunch of prospects filling out the card.
And over in Belfast, on a DAZN job promoted by Jamie Conlan, a stack of local names and prospects get a runout, topped by Tyrone McCenna against Mohamed Mimoune and Caoimhin Agyarko against Tommi Silvennoinen. This looks to be mostly about getting the fighters in question in the ring more then any serious test for them, but well, it’s there.