Teófimo López vs Richard Commey: The Fight Site Staff Predictions

There is more at stake in the IBF lightweight (135lbs) boxing contest between Richard Commey and Teofimo Lopez than a simple red strap.

The winner also wins the sweepstakes for a lucrative and meaningful four-belt unification bout with arguably the world’s best boxer, Vasyl Lomachenko.

Both heavy hitters, the tantalising fight tonight (chief support to the underwhelming ‘Bud’ Crawford vs. Egidijus Kavaliauskas fight) between the tough African titlist and the streaking knockout machine could only spark debate when mulling over the potential outcome.

So it’s only natural that The Fight Site team wanted to have a go at predicting what might happen.

Taylor Higgins: I’m gonna keep this relatively short and sweet, as I’m relatively confident in my prediction; I think Commey’s come-forward style will give Lopez plenty of opportunities to counter with a bomb, especially considering how Commey’s form tends to go to shit at times which leaves him wide open. Commey is tough and I doubt he gets flat-out iced, but he’s been hurt before by Beltran and Easter so I don’t doubt that Lopez can do the same.

Conversely, Commey may very well land one of his trademark right hands early. It’ll be interesting to see how Lopez reacts - will he fold and become frustrated like he did in the Nakatani fight, or bite down on his gum-shield and show what he’s made of? I’m going to say he can, and I think stylistically Commey’s weaknesses play into his hands.

I like Commey a lot, and hope he pulls it off tonight. He’s a good fighter who deserves a big unification against Lomachenko, and by all means he’s a genuinely nice guy. But I think the young upstart will be too fast and sharp here, which is why I’m predicting Lopez by KO in the first half.

Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: Huge fan of Brooklyn’s own Teofimo Lopez I try to ignore this as I give this prediction. Lopez last performance wasn’t as bad as what the boxing world said but it is true that he struggled with the weight a little bit and if he outlasted his opponent he didn’t shine as he used to. That being said I think Nakatani was a difficult match up for Teofimo. I am a bit more worried about Teo’s personal life but skill wise I think he’s a fantastic puncher who’s best assets will be his creativity when it comes to counter the champion Richard Commey. Teofimo needs to go to the body consistently this time, this is a massive weapon that he sometimes doesn’t use enough. If he get to slow down the champion I am sure he will get him to overextend or threw hail-maker that will lead to devastating counters. Commey is a very good boxer and he has something to prove to the world tonight also. I thought his last performance over Beltran showed how dangerous he is but also how vulnerable he can be to counters. Both men see this fight not going the distance but here I am gonna pick the younger, fresher fighter to win on the scorecards. So in a fight where both men will be hurt I think Teofimo Lopez will win a close Unanimous Decision

Kyle McLachlan: I really rate Commey, he is tough as hell, hits hard and always gets stuck in. Lopez is an excellent prospect but looked out of ideas against Nakatani, and his post fights comments worried me, as it stunk out of fighter who has had it all his own way not liking it when presented with a look he didn’t like.

Commey should give him a preferable look: whilst smart, the defending champ is wild at times, and looks to punch in combination, which should see him open to Lopez’s sharp counter punching.

Since the fight was first rumoured, I’ve favoured Commey to have the strength and balls to pull off a hard-fought victory. But there’s two things I can’t quite shake as we get closer to the opening bell. Bob Arum’s want for a Lopez-Lomachenko unification fight, and the counter right hand from Robert Easter (not a noted puncher) that shook Commey to his boots in the final round of their excellent fight.

I can see Lopez coming through some tough moments to land that right hand with enough frequency that he shades it on points in a close and competitive unanimous decision that will certainly be widely discussed on social media afterwards. Thing is, he will learn from this fight either way, just as Commey bounced back from the fights with Easter and Shafikov. Expect fireworks!

Lukasz Fenrych:  Richard Commey is an awkward, tough, crafty sort of fighter, the kind where, even if he weren't holding a belt right now, is always likely to be a tough outing for a prospect who's used to having it his own way. Teofimo Lopez didn't look good last time out- he won, but Masayoshi Nakatani made him look all sorts of awkward and devoid of ideas against a taller man. So a quick glance might make one favour Commey, a higher-level fighter than Nakatani, to frustrate Lopez and teach him a few life lessons.

That will likely happen to some extent. Lopez would need to add some depth he hasn't shown so far to look comfortable here. However, there is one big flaw in Commey's attacking game, which is that he frequently finishes some pretty good combinations and pressure work with wild lunging hooks from either hand that draw him completely off balance to the point where he's staggering (this is something he also does to try to close range if his opponent is managing to keep away from him).

One thing Lopez does do well is fade back just enough to make big shots whiff and then counter with something big of his own, which means that habit of Commey's is likely to get him in trouble. And if he does feel Lopez's power and start to move backwards, that's trouble for him too, because although he's awkward he isn't a particularly effective back-foot fighter.
All that in mind, I see a fight that starts awkwardly for Lopez as he struggles to keep from getting tangled up in Commey's rough exchanges, but a few game-changing counters back Commey up and eventually lead to Teofimo Lopez by KO.