Takeru vs Leona: Predictions

If you were not already aware, perhaps the most intriguing fight K-1 can stage (and arguably one of the top five potential fights in all of kickboxing) is taking place this weekend.

Longtime K-1 champ and poster boy for the organisation Takeru Segawa is taking on Krush champ and longtime contender Leona Pettas, in what is not just a great clash of styles between highly-ranked fighters, but a fight that is literally years in the making.

Without further ado, let’s see what our analysts—and some of our friends covering kickboxing from outside of The Fight Site—have to say about this tremendous contest.

Hamady ‘Baba’ Diagne : Finally! The best fight the K-1 group could offer is upon us. Really pumped for this. A rangy, technical fighter versus the ultimate, hard-headed, powerful pressure fighter. Problem for Takeru : he really struggled with rangy, disciplined Karatekas lately, and Leona is much better than his previous foes. Leona's story makes you wanna root for him, but I'll go with Takeru by UD in this one. I think he'll sustain damage in the process, but eventually the pressure will be too much, and he'll land a boat load of blows in the 3rd. The other way around wouldn't be an upset at all to me though. Great fight.

Don Goodman: I should preface this with a campaign finance declaration, I gave 50 bucks to Leona's crowdfunding to keep his gym open explicitly titled "Defeat Takeru" so you should take what I say in its proper context.

I think the default position for any Takeru fight is "he's gonna win" and that's been my gut feeling, but the Leona that fought Murakoshi beats the Takeru that fought Murakoshi. Obviously that's not the way things work but I have a really hard time visualizing how their styles mesh and I think there's a few key flashpoints at different ranges that will determine how it goes down.

Despite having arms twice as long as everyone else in the division, what Leona really thrives on is creating chaos and then smothering people in close with shots from above, below, and around the guard to score knockdowns by cumulative strikes. But to get there he quite often baits opponents into throwing outside leg kicks and rushes in when the right hand threat is temporarily gone. The issue is Takeru almost exclusively throws two kicks, a Yuya Yamamoto style snappy inside leg kick and a front kick to the body, both with his lead leg and rarely if ever precluding him from throwing the right. Tatsuya Oiwa (Takeru's main training partner) also discovered that you can mitigate a lot of that chaos by just headbutting him constantly.

That leaves the other things you'll see that Leona uses to open up, a not-so-great pull counter at the edge of his opponents' punching range that his chin has made a non-issue to date, and a sneakily good counter knee to the body catching guys coming in. I think Takeru will probably have more respect for Leona's power than a guy like Koji, so won't be waddling straight in enough to get hit with the knee too often, and I think if Leona has much success leaning back and countering with straight punches then Takeru can always find his body with the front kick. While Daniel Puertas Gallardo is a much more hunched down, in close fighter than Pettas, I think he illustrated the point that Takeru can still punch tall guys very hard.

So ultimately I don't know what the complexion of the fight will be, but the first guy to draw out a moment of weakness is going to follow it up with 5000 punches to the head and everyone says "of course I knew it all along". I suspect there's a cagey feeling out process while they figure out how their puzzle pieces fit together and then somebody gets brain damage. I think Takeru probably takes it but I pray from the warmth of my Leona Pettas t-shirt that he doesn't.

Also, the last time I'm aware of Leona tasting the canvas was six years ago against Haruaki Otsuki. Things went wildly off the rails with 5 combined knockdowns including one by running headbutt. If this fight starts off slow, stick with it, it could get nutty.

Kyle McLachlan: This is a very hard fight to predict, and rightly so. Leona is taller and longer, a way more active kicker, and a straighter puncher. Takeru is shorter and stronger, and a banger to both head and body. Leona’s torso is long and will be the main focus of target for Takeru I expect, and then Leona is the straighter puncher with the longer reach so should be able to get off in between Takeru’s wide swings. Leona’s foot feints and in-and-out movement could make Takeru hesitant to engage, and keep the fight at the challenger’s preferred range.

So, who takes it? I honestly don’t know. This really is a mega fight and anything can happen: Leona is the best fighter Takeru has fought in a while (perhaps ever) and the challenger has wanted this fight forever, so will be laser focused I’m sure. I have to go with Takeru by decision: he turns the pressure up as the seconds tick by and is capable of keeping a high pace right until the end of the bout, so even with the issues he will undoubtedly face with Leona, I think he can get enough damaging work done. I think Takeru will get the bigger shots off, and will trade on his iron chin (perhaps for one last time?) and get through some really tough moments whilst launching bombs himself. But if Leona were to break through and shockingly put Takeru down it wouldn’t shock me either. Mouth-watering fight, without a doubt the best fight around this weight that doesn’t involve Tenshin moving up a few pounds. 

Trashydrakefan (Kick To The Future): Most exciting fight in kickboxing this year and definitely Takeru’s best opponent. Wouldn’t be surprised if Takeru finishes him within one or two rounds but due to legal reasons and respect to Leona’s mother I have to go with Leona winning by decision. Takeru has mentioned in the past if he ever loses he’ll be done with kickboxing so I hope Leona and Kona are looking at land to buy because the payday will be huge if he forces the face of the K-1 brand to retire.

Kevin Strobel (Beyond Kickboxing): One of the more intriguing matchups to make in recent years. Both in significance for the Japanese scene, and as a stylistic clash. Leona’s general awkwardness and off-angle punching in the pocket, make this a hard one to predict. He has a very underrated jab, which he uses to set up follow up strikes and swarm his opponents. We’ve recently seen Takeru struggle against someone with an educated jab in Murakoshi, but unlike him, Leona doesn’t look to dictate the fight on the outside. Takeru possesses the physicality and infighting skills to match Leona’s output, so I see him coming out on top. Leona's size will mostly play a role in his ability to take a punch and crack one out, and less in him making use of his range. Despite K-1’s three-round format and Leona’s toughness, I still think Takeru will end it inside the distance just by being sharper in the pocket and the more dangerous body puncher.

Ryan Wagner: Takeru is perhaps the most aggressive pressure fighter in kickboxing, which makes Leona such an interesting matchup for him. Leona is a sharp mid-range puncher, with excellent counterpunching and distance control. Fighters like Takeru do their best work with their opponent’s back to the ropes, and sharp, powerful mid-range punchers often provide the best foil to their pressure, as they can force exchanges in open space. Takeru uses a consistent lead-leg low kick to harass opponents at range and prevent them from establishing a rhythm, but Leona is a sharper, more consistent kicker on the outside, which should help him avoid being forced to give ground due to the low kicks. 

Leona is a more precise puncher in exchanges, but tends to let his defensive awareness lack in heated flurries. Wild, chaotic exchanges likely favor Takeru, but he’ll need to get past Leona’s first layer of counters to create that chaos. With his rangy, precision straight punching, Leona may be able to dissuade aggressive entries and slow the pace down. Leona’s bouncy rhythm and constant in-and-out feints are another tool that can dissuade Takeru’s entries through the threat of an explosive drive, or set up his own if he can keep Takeru on the outside.

If Takeru can get Leona to the ropes consistently, he’ll be able to tee off more openly. Leona’s body is there for the taking in exchanges, and Takeru mixes up body-head combinations brilliantly. Leona has excellent, well-disguised knees that he can throw from short range, which could punish or dissuade Takeru from hunting the body.

Ultimately the fight will be decided by ringcraft. If Takeru can force Leona to the ropes consistently, tee off with flurries, stick him in corners and bang the body, he’ll overwhelm him with volume and pressure. If Leona can dissuade entries with counters, punish Takeru’s aggression, and consistently force open-space engagements before his back hits the ropes, he can stem the tide and control the chaos. While it seems like a close fight and is hard to make a confident pick, the style matchup makes me lean slightly toward Leona via UD

Phan Kế Sơn (Lev_Kick): Leona is a long, smart, and incredibly durable fighter. His latest run has been incredible. On the other hand, Takeru has struggled against longer fighters, and unfortunately seems to be declining ever since his fight against Yodkritsada (who was on an incredible run at the time). His recurring hand injury doesn't inspire confidence either. Leona Pettas by decision