Sunny Edwards Could Totally Win, Guys
Photo by James Chance/Getty Images
Skepticism, Warranted or Otherwise
This Friday, Sunny Edwards makes a big step up in level to take on long-reigning flyweight champion Moruti Mthalane for the IBF world title.
Now, Sunny's a frequent, vocal, fight-his-own-corner presence online. He's a promotional favourite of Frank Warren, which always incurs some skepticism. He's the fella who once turned up to a fight in pigtails. Plus he's the younger brother of Charlie Edwards, who for some reason incurred the internet's ire when Julio Cesar Martinez decided, having blitzed him to an almost-certain early defeat, to hit him very definitely after he went down and incur a No Contest. So Sunny's got that familial sin going against him in some eyes too.
And he is taking a very big leap in levels of opposition, which as a fighter with genuine talent but also some fairly raw holes in his game, is a risk.
All of which is to say that ever since the fight was first rumoured, people have been queuing up to suggest that either Sunny Edwards is going to get comfortably (and for some, righteously) beaten, or he's going to win a robbery on home soil against a skilled but unheralded travelling champion.
And, well, either of those things might happen. Both have, in similar situations, happened before. That is not, however, what we're going to talk about today.
Instead we're going to take a look at that which is somewhat slipping under the radar: those reasons why, despite everything, Sunny Edwards does have a chance at legitimate victory on Friday. We'll get the obvious, unflattering, one out of the way early- Mthalane is 38 and hasn't fought in a year and a half. At that age, the fall off the downard slope of physical capability could happen any time, and ring rust will be harder to shake off. So Edwards has that chance, right off the bat.
Even if that doesn't happen though, there are reasons to believe the upset may be on the way, that Sunny might have it in him to be a genuine world champion and contender in tough divisions at 115 and 118. So let's discuss what it is he does that might cause Mthalane actual problems.
In Constant Motion
The first thing you notice about Sunny when he's fighting is most likely going to be the movement. He's always in motion, in and out, laterally, with frequent stance switches. None of those things are inherent virtues in boxing, and he does make some technical errors in movement that could cost him – in particular he sometimes overbalances when pivoting out at close range and ends up having to hop his way to safety hoping he has fallen enough to the side of his opponent to prevent incoming fire- but for the most part he is a fluid and effective mover, and his stance switches usually serve a purpose in gaining position or difusing an opponent's line of attack, rather than as some frequently-switching fighters do just hoping to confuse by sheer volume. Mthalane is also himself an effective mover, but not necssarily a fast one, and he might well struggle to push Edwards to the ropes and corners he'll need him to be to do his best work.
This could be compounded by Edwards' head movement- something you may have seen highlighted by BT Sport's pre-fight sizzle reels, as they've evidently decided it's a selling point. It, is, in fact, not Sunny's best skill, in close in particular he can get a little upright and off-balance, but at distance he is effective, which will compound Mthalane's potential problems with herding him into corners.
A Fair Few Punches
The second notable feature of Sunny Edwards' game, and one where he notably differs from his brother Charlie, is volume of punches. For an outboxer who favours counterpunching, Sunny throws a lot. He'll rarely throw a single jab when double or triple is there for him, and he'll throw combinations wherever they're available, even when operating at range where for many fighters a single punch or 1-2 is the norm. He combines this with his movement, which does compromise his power – something his detractors will definitely be noting in the buildup to this fight- but means that he rarely ups the defensive risk even when getting extra punches in. Of course, a fighter of Mthalane's level will not be easy to do this to and will be far more likely to either find the gaps or scare off the volume than his opponents so far, but the pieces are there to suggest that, if Edwards can keep it at distance, he might be able to outthrow Mthalane, who wants to be closer to do his best work.
Rhythm Is King
The last thing we'll talk about is a little more abstract, a bit harder to pin down and also harder to trust will manifest itself in a jump up levels- but if it does it could be the difference between failure and victory. It's also a rare skill and why Sunny is rated among the top British prospects right now. What we're looking at is rhythm, and the manipulation thereof.
As we know, many fighters, even some good ones, get themselves stuck fighting at one pace all the time, be it full-forward charges, repeated short blitzes, or one-at-a-time range fighting. Others- more common at higher levels- can break their own rhythm via feints, punches on the half-beat, but are rarely responding to something the opponent has done. Or they can read what an opponent is doing, and counter their timing, but their own responses may all be at one pace (this is a common reason for natural counterpunchers who have looked classy on the backfoot becoming suddenly uncomfortable when asked to lead).
There are a few fighters, though, who can do all of it- read their opponent's rhythm, manipulate it with their own feints, punches and moves, and keep the fight constantly on their own tempo not by forcing it but by both adapting and forcing their opponents to try to adapt.
Whether he belongs to that elite, of course, remains very much to be seen, and will probably take more proofing even if he wins here, but that manipulation- play, almost- is something he has so far done very well. Look back at both of the two previous skills we've mentioned, and consider them in this light. The reason Edwards' movement is effective is not just because there's a lot of it- he times his changes of direction, pauses, foot feints, stance switches and all to both distract his opponent and to break away from his opponent's timing. When he throws with volume, it's not just for its own sake – he'll throw a triple jab to occupy an opponent's guard and vision while he moves, then take advantage to their response to land a punch or two and leave the area. He'll throw out punches to gauge responses, then taylor his more deliberate next moves based on those. This constant shifting of pattern and refusal to allow his opponents to settle into any tempo is a big part of his success to date.
This won't be easy to do against Mthalane, who's going to be far better at cutting off the ring than anyone he's faced so far and who, with his punches in particular, does have the ability to vary rhythm and therefore cut off Sunny's attempts to do so before the start. 'With his punches' is the key phrase for Edwards, though- footwork wise, though precise, Mthalane is more one-paced, and if he can keep the champion guessing, following, and moving, he might be able to keep him from ever being comfortable to throw. If that happens, we could see a new champion.
So there it is. This isn't a formal prediction – there's too many unknown variables of time, age, off-screen improvements or losses and the like, to comfortably do that for this fight- but it is a useful list of things to look out for, and for reasons not to be shocked if Sunny Edwards does come out on Friday and legitimately, fairly, on the back of his own skill, win his first world title.
And even if he doesn’t, there’s a bright future ahead of him.