Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez vs Billy Joe Saunders: Staff Predictions

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This weekend, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez looks to forward his claim as arguably the top pound-for-pound boxer in the world with a win over Billy Joe Saunders for the unified super middleweight belt. Despite standing at an undefeated record and reputation for slick outside movement, our staff members believe Saunders to be a bit untested whereas the Mexican stands among the most proven and impressive the sport has produced in the last decade. Nonetheless, this is one of the bigger fights of the year so far, if only for name value alone - probably more than the stylistic clash itself. As for said, stylistic clash, our analysts had some opinions below.

Taylor Higgins: I’ve seen far too many people say Canelo struggles against elusive opponents with good movement, pointing to his close and controversial win over Lara (which was nearly 7 years ago) as evidence, and that Saunders will be too slick for the Mexican star on Saturday night because look what he did to Lemieux. The problem with this line of thinking is a) Canelo is a completely different beast in 2021 and b) he’s a tad better than the painfully one-dimensional David Lemieux.

Over the past few years, Canelo has transformed into one of the finest pressure fighters in the sport. He’s efficient, smart and brilliant at slipping-and-countering on the front-foot. Alvarez isn’t going to let Saunders control the real estate of the ring, and he’ll consistently target the body which I think will pay dividends down the stretch as Saunders’ gas tank hasn’t looked great at 168lbs. The Brit is tough, but doesn’t have the ridiculous physicality of a Callum Smith to convince me that he’ll go the distance.

At best, I think Saunders’ underrated jab will give Alvarez something to think about for a few rounds, but I can’t see him winning in Texas as Canelo dominates past the halfway point. Canelo by TKO round 9.

Dan Albert: It’s growing increasingly difficult to not call ‘Canelo’ Alvarez the world’s best boxer – or at least the best at enforcing specifically refined ideas in the ring. ‘Canelo’ gets how simple measures can lead to the best of results. That is to say, Canelo’s ring generalship, footwork, and shot selection within minimalist concepts is top notch. It’s also becoming increasingly difficult to find a sort of fight that ‘Canelo’ can’t be comfortable in. In both of his bouts with Gennady Golovkin, ‘Canelo’ proved he could play both the matador or bull to negate GGG’s pressure or advantage in longer exchanges while accumulating experiences against an adaptive and versatile opponent. As he’s gone up in weight, his guile and poise has only shown more and more. Even worse, his pressure and ability to adapt that pressure with his reads has only gotten better. Kovalev, Smith, and Jacobs found themselves pushed back and disoriented by Canelo’s mixups and upper-body feints. When you consider the shot selection, especially the manipulation of an opponent’s guard to land debilitating body work, it’s hard to think of many better in the world right now than the Mexican.

In this writer’s opinion, Saunders certifiably is a solid outfighter, but he hasn’t necessarily faced the competition that has really tested his prowess in the way that Alvarez is likely to do so. David Lemieux is a willing, powerful aggressor, but he ended up flattering Saunders a bit. That is to say, Lemieux’s pressure and ringcutting is fairly one-dimensional and straight-lined. Saunders could afford to break his stance or dip his head and reposition because most of Lemieux’s attacks were following the head and barely ever mixed it up to the body. Martin Murray fought a passive pressure game at first, but his limited options and lack of mixups saw Saunders quickly back him up and overwhelm him. What gives some cause for concern about Saunders is that he’s an incredibly reactive fighter first. In other words, he’ll rely upon passivity or try to counter. Although his mixups behind a jab to break rhythm and reset are solid, he will often do one without the other. These things give cause for concern versus Alvarez, who applies his pressure subtly, but far from passively. Beating Canelo, to be frank, probably requires the ability to force some pace on him whilst competing in a positional battle or be able to make him back off with decisive, concussive blows. BJ Saunders isn’t really the latter, but he can offer some resistance with the former. Saunders does apply redirections and throwaways to keep himself safe from dangerous engagements; however, he’ll need all that and, frankly, more than what he’s shown. I don’t buy that he is that though. I expect ‘Canelo’ to eventually figure him out after a competitive few rounds and then apply patented pressure and attrition that will break Saunders down to a late finish.

Lukasz Fenrych: Does Billy Joe Saunders have what it takes to beat Canelo Alvarez? Well, no, probably not, let's get that out of the way first. If he does somehow scare up a win, it'll be by bringing his best tools to the table in pin-sharp form – he has an excellent jab, and good defensive footwork. Canelo's footwork these days is excellent- efficient, subtly decietful, and nearly mistake-free – but it is nonetheless still quite slow, so if BJS were to throw out that jab and step away consistently quickly he'll find success and if he's very very good at it he might be able to keep it up for 12 rounds. Ultimately, though, that isn't likely to be enough. Firstly, while good, Saunders' footwork is not particularly rapid itself, and secondly, Canelo is far too good at working off his opponent's jab to beat him with that as your only serious offensive tool. He'll be swerving it with his vaunted head movement then stepping in behind it to pepper Saunders with short combinations as soon as he gets in range, working the body throughout to slow Saunders down enough that he can get into full-delivery range. And Saunders will be vulnerable to this- he's seen as a defensive fighter, but ultimately in that respect his game is quite shallow, and once a fighter does get past the footwork and jab there's not a lot there. It's why he looks so bad against opponents who should be far beneath him if he shows up in less than ideal shape- if he can't keep away, he hasn't got the tools to pick the right frame to avoid damage, to get a viable non-static guard up, or even to find the angles to move back to distance safely once he is in the pocket. So most likely what will happen is Canelo will look a little awkward early on but put the pressure on and ultimately break BJS down. The Englishman's size and from what we've seen so far decent toughness make me think he'll survive, though, so I'll go for Canelo by clear decision.

Ollie Raderecht: We’re all in agreement here. It doesn’t take much deliberation to pick Canelo over any fighter between 160-168 right now, since he’s indisputably the most skilled and accomplished fighter there. Saunders’ crafty but limited jab-and-move game simply isn’t enough to beat, for my money, the best boxer in the world currently. Saunders will look to box on the back-foot, pumping out the jab and preventing the combination puncher from setting himself to land effective fire. Overall, Saunders will attempt to forestall Canelo’s rhythm and make it a tricky, uneventful affair. Many will point to the trouble Canelo had with Mayweather and Lara to support the possibility of a Saunders victory, but Canelo’s a vastly superior fighter now than in 2013/14. In particular, Canelo’s footwork and positioning are much improved, and he’s evolved into one of the best in boxing at picking off an opponent’s jab. Canelo will be able to draw out Saunders’ lead hand with deceptive upper-body movement, which will additionally allow him to close the distance consistently and fire away at mid-range. Saunders, not being a particularly layered technician nor capable of exchanging with Canelo (a much finer shot-selector), won’t have much to prevent the Mexican from gaining the upper hand once he’s out-positioned the Brit. Essentially, without being able to keep the fight at a distance, Saunders cannot win, and Canelo’s impeccable distance management will make dictating the range an incredibly difficult task. Due to the southpaw-orthodox dynamic, Saunders will likely circle to the right for outside foot position, meaning he’ll be circling into Canelo’s potent left hook to the body, which will drain him. Furthermore, Saunders doesn’t have the volume to really trouble Canelo and keep the Mexican contained, made worse by the likelihood that Canelo’s counterpunching threat will make Saunders hesitant to open up. I said the same thing prior to Canelo fighting Callum Smith, but I don’t think it’s a question of whether Saunders can beat Canelo, rather how long he can last. Smith lasted the full twelve, contrary to my prediction of a KO, but I think Canelo may be more spiteful against Saunders tonight, break him down and stop him inside the distance. Saunders doesn’t have the best gas tank, to say the least, and Canelo’s bodywork will exploit that. Eddie Reynoso’s seemingly confident prediction of a stoppage and Canelo’s sentiment toward Saunders may have swayed me, but I’m going with Canelo by late TKO/KO. Overall I expect a somewhat competitive fight early on with Canelo showing the gulf in ability in the second half. Regardless of whether Canelo will stop Saunders, he should win comprehensively.