Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje: TFS Staff's Initial Reads

Photo Credit: Amy Kaplan/FanSided

It’s not the fight we were promised for a long time, but Khabib Nurmagomedov defending his title against interim lightweight champ Justin Gaethje is no less compelling a stylistic matchup.

Here at The Fight Site we’ve been mulling this one over for a while anyway, so thought we would get our early reads down.

Ed: The popular narrative I see around this fight is, “Gaethje has a great wrestling background, that’s why he can win.” While having wrestling skill competency is very important in beating Khabib, it’s not the reason I, or my colleagues, are so high on his chances. The main factor is ring craft. The Al Iaquinta fight showed that in open space, Khabib is much less effective, his single leg has its limits and is clearly physically taxing to execute. Against Dustin Poirier, we saw that if you can’t at least hold center, he doesn’t need to shoot that single at all. To defeat a dangerous champion, you have to take away their main strengths and force them into engaging you with their “B game”. Against both McGregor and Iaquinta, we saw how little it takes to back up Nurmagomedov. While he’s got decent movement and tactics to get off the cage, it’s remarkably simple to get him there. 

Out of all the UFC lightweight contenders, Justin Gaethje is the best fit for putting Khabib on the back foot, keeping the pace high and punishing him. While retreating, Khabib stands tall, leaning back at the waist. Not only does this keep him out of position to shoot intercepting leg attacks (something he has done literally once in his UFC career), it opens up key defensive holes that Gaethje has demonstrated an eye for. Against Ferguson, he adjusted his left hook to the body after whiffing several times when Tony adopted a similar defensive strategy. However, this will require Gaethje to revert, in a sense, to his old form. Pressure brawler Gaethje is the man for the job, the more patient, mid-range counter-fighter we saw vs. Cerrone and Ferguson could give Khabib serious issues, but it’s not as perfect a match as a Gaethje married to the idea of forward pressure. I have my concerns about how Gaethje will hold up in extended wrestling and grappling exchanges, but in the UFC lightweight ranks, no one’s ring craft is more of a nightmare for Khabib than Justin Gaethje. It speaks to the talent of the lightweight champion that even against his toughest style matchup at the weight, I cannot pick against him with confidence.

Sriram: I'm of two minds here, honestly. I agree with everything Ed said conceptually, and I actually think backfoot-Gaethje can do well too; he needs to consistently angle off and stand his ground when Khabib looks to run him back, but he did that against Ferguson. Beating Khabib with the pressure-approach is probably easier, but there's a reason I'd also pick a heavy-handed slick out-fighter like Eddie Alvarez to give Khabib trouble too, and Gaethje can probably lead Khabib into counters since Khabib's boxing is mostly a jab. Fundamentally, it's about keeping it in space, and I think Gaethje has multiple ways to do that, and it keeps his options open in terms of both cutting off Nurmagomedov's open-space entries at the pass and wrestling out if he gets on the bottom (instead of getting stuck under Khabib against the fence, where he's as elite as elite gets). Gaethje also has a huge advantage in the clinch when Khabib doesn't have a bodylock, and someone who consistently smashes Khabib's body would be very interesting. 

The concern I have is what reared its head with Dustin Poirier, who also looked like one of the most fearless fighters in MMA before shrinking in the face of Nurmagomedov's reputation. Gaethje has never been dumb, but his previous reputation for marching forward with reckless abandon had a bit of a "too dumb to fail" appeal; Khabib's opponents have paralyzed themselves trying to specifically deal with a wrestling threat they've never seen before, and Johnson-era Gaethje seemed like the kind to (probably correctly) simplify it to "I fight my fight and I win". Now, I'm a bit worried he outsmarts himself. Add that to not really seeing his bottom-game in the UFC and it's a worrying low-margin fight. Gaethje's the best in the UFC to deal with Khabib (although I'd probably trust Abdulvakhabov more), but it isn't necessarily a wide fight because of that. 

Philippe : UFC better not push for Gaethje / Conor. Gaethje vs Khabib is the fight. Big fan of both.

Justin followed the Poirier route (win streak, interim fight) but I think unlike the inspiring ‘Diamond’ he will get through to Khabib and here’s why: Khabib is great, you won’t read much of me saying bad things about him. I think he’s faster than people think and also he’s the best at fighting his fight (so far). Justin’s wrestling background? Yes he’s gonna need it but that’s not the main reason why I pick him to win.

I’ll pick Gaethje if ‘composed and serious’ Gaethje finds a way to mix himself with ‘promoters’s wet dream’ Gaethje: the one that moves forward recklessly with his high guard and breaks his opponent. I believe that with a better shot selection and some more output than from his last three fights, Gaethje will chop Khabib’s leg and work his body. Pressuring Khabib, cutting the cage will cause tons of trouble for Khabib who is so reluctant to shoot for reactive takedowns.

But it’s not that easy. We can only base our analysis on what Khabib showed us, what if Khabib’s will to survive/win is at the same level as Tony Ferguson ? Because he’s so dominant we always expect Khabib to be a front runner. I don’t. I think that Khabib has the heart of a true warrior and that to get to where he’s at now he had to face a lot of adveristy. I don’t think you can break him mentally but you can probably outfox him if you make him strike on the back foot. So if Gaethje can fuck that leg up and sprawl his way out of those single legs and punish Khabib for it he can win. Important not to forget that in the past when Gaethje got tired he got real sloppy. He seems to have corrected it but let’s not forget it still. 

Danny: Even as a mid-range counter puncher, Gaethje has made himself much harder to push back into the fence than someone like Poirier. His footwork against Ferguson was genuinely phenomenal, consistently breaking the line of Tony’s attack, shifting forward, and punishing with the check hook or a short right hand every time Tony stepped into range. His lateral movement and cage craft is legitimately excellent, and Gaethje also has the ability to switch into pressure when he needs to. 

I will likely die on the hill that Khabib is more than just a beatable, but a solvable fight for a number of fighters whom, for one reason or another, just aren’t lightweights. Gaethje might not be among the first tier of bad matchups for Khabib, but his improved footwork, distance management, and ring craft has given me hope. He’s the more dynamic finishing threat, and should have a pronounced advantage in neutral tie ups. 

Mateusz: Amongst all touted reasons why Gaethje might be such a compelling match-up against Nurmagomedov—his aggression, fearlessness, power, wrestling background (and especially his proficient takedown defence) and so on—one in particular sticks out as something to grasp onto as a potential X-factor: his composure.

Now, this might seem a bizarre descriptor to attach to the whirlwind of violence that early-UFC Gaethje was presented as (and, well, was).

But the fight that Gaethje has been fighting since he lost to Poirier is a totally renovated one. Gone is the gasping, haymaker-loving berserker, and a new, ferociously intelligent fighter has taken his place. 

Against Vick, Barboza, Cerrone and—most impressively—Ferguson, Justin Gaethje has married his bloodthirsty love of violence to a keen eye for tactics, and shown a high level of in-fight coachability and adaptability.

And, against Ferguson, we really saw his composure. While he didn’t need to show it as much against his previous three opponents, Ferguson has a reputation for breaking and overwhelming his foes, and for a moment or two, he looked like he had an in against Gaethje, but nope; Gaethje stayed calm, adjusted and battered Ferguson.

He’ll need it against Khabib, the scourge of the lightweight ranks. It doesn’t matter that he apparently has only one way to approach a fight; he’s apparently so frightening in the cage that it terrifies people into submission.

Witness one Dustin Poirier. A tough and doughty fighter, he walked the coals versus Gaethje himself and won, convincingly. And yet against Khabib, he froze, and lunged his way to a poor submission loss.

Such is the fear of Khabib’s wrestling that he makes smart and battle-seasoned warriors lose themselves in a panic. I have a feeling this myth may meet its match across the cage from Gaethje’s calm.

Kyle: For a while I’ve thought that Gaethje would be Khabib’s kryptonite, but I have to consider that….well, what if his wrestling chops don’t help him? Of course, Gaethje should be able to keep Khabib backing up, which would be perfect, but his new and improved style might actually give Khabib more breathing room, more time to set up his shots. Am I wrong in thinking the old style kamikaze Gaethje would be the superior stylistic matchup for Khabib? Just because he’d be backing him up more consistently. Khabib doesn’t have great defence but he does move his head, perhaps that would be his way to turn Justin, get him against the cage and start working him over? I don’t know, strange fight to contemplate even though the styles matchup is pretty clear. I’m done betting against Khabib, and I’m done betting against Justin.

Ben: It’s an interesting thought whether the newer, more patient, Gaethje actually suffers in a matchup against Khabib. Personally, I think yes and no. His kamikaze, blitzing style would have benefited him in certain areas for sure. Constant pressure against Khabib combined with forcing Khabib to shoot reactively, which is not his strongest area, would absolutely have given Gaethje a real chance of winning that fight. The problem is, that’s also a pace we’ve seen bite him after a few rounds. Khabib is tough, we know that, and Gaethje blitzing will drain him by round three. Will Khabib be done by then? I don’t know, it’s a question we’d only have an answer to once they fight.

Conversely, the more patient style exhibited by Gaethje will give Khabib more breathing room, but I think Gaethje can keep it going for much longer as well. He also places his shots better, leading to his string of finishes. There’s also the point of Gaethje’s wrestling defense, and can it hold up. We haven’t really seen Gaethje deal with a strong, dedicated wrestler in a very long time, and I frankly think that’s a big question mark for him. Lightweight, as good as it is, does lack quality, high level offensive wrestlers. Gaethje has a great sprawl and is beyond competent in the clinch. It’s more if Khabib does get him down, can he just pop up live we’ve seen, and do it consistently? I really don’t know.

Personally, I think the more interesting matchup is the newer, more patient version of Gaethje. I think he will force Khabib to be much more careful with his shot selection, as well as measured in using his own pressure game, which has lacked good footwork in many of his fights. Khabib’s limited striking will also be a true liability here as well.

I think Gaethje is just a bad matchup—no matter how you slice it—on the feet for Khabib. The only thing we just do not know about is his game off his back. If he can stay off his back, he will likely win, and handily.