Jordan Burroughs vs. David Taylor - The Fight Site Preview and Predictions
Photo courtesy of Ginger Robinson
On Wednesday, January 13th 2021, Five-time World and Olympic champion Jordan Burroughs will once again face off with the 2018 World champion David Taylor. The two have history, Burroughs is 4-0 against the former Nittany Lion. However, those matches took place over six years ago, and at 74 kg. Since then, Taylor has successfully moved up to 86 kg and won a World title over the likes of World and Olympic champion Hassan Yazdanicharati.
In what may be the biggest challenge of Burroughs’ career, and a stiff test for the returning David Taylor, wrestling fans and analysts are scratching their heads to predict the winner. The Fight Site’s staff of analysts put their collective knowledge together in an attempt to make sense of it all.
Ed Gallo: I will start by saying my tiny brain has a hard time getting past the ~25 pound weight difference in this matchup. On paper, it is an absurdly tall order for even the best guy in the world at 74 kg to beat the best guy in the world at 86 kg.
However, thinking about the matchup itself in detail reveals a much more complex reality. Last month we saw Jordan Burroughs take on the much larger Zahid Valencia, forcing him to wrestle at a lower level and picking him apart with reattacks. My first question is, do you see anything in Burroughs' and Taylor's games that could lead to a similar dynamic?
Jack Hurley: I do think the style matchup and these wrestlers’ history with each other has to at least give some pause in picking Taylor. Taylor is not the kind of guy to control a match and shut down his opponent’s offense; he wins by getting to legs, particularly low level shots, and winning scrambles. Even as the bigger man, I don’t think he’ll really overpower Burroughs. Length would be the bigger problem, but Burroughs showed both in 2014 against Taylor and last month against Valencia that he can handle an opponent with that kind of reach. How, exactly, would a Taylor victory play out? What would be different from the past Burroughs-Taylor matches or the Zahid match?
Ed: Thinking about a win for either of them definitely feels weird. It’s hard to picture either man scoring clean. I feel for Burroughs, it will probably be one-pointers and perhaps some clutch finishes on the edge, for Taylor I think he could score on scrambles and work his way through some shots if he gets a bite on a leg or ankle. What I’m having a hard time conceptualizing is who can control the engagements of the match with their hand-fighting and positioning. Historically, Jordan Burroughs is the type to do so. Furthermore, thinking about Burroughs’ recent losses, how often is physicality the cause? As you said, it’s really not something we’ve ever seen. The more discourse around this match-up I see, the more I start to lean toward a tight Burroughs victory.
Dan Sweeney: I am not sure the past matchups between Burroughs and Taylor will be indicative of how this one goes. For one, I don’t think either is the same wrestler as they were when they previously faced off - the last time they wrestled was in July of 2014 (6.5 years ago). At that time Taylor was just a few months removed from his senior year at Penn State while Burroughs was coming off 3 consecutive World titles (including a gold medal at the 2012 Olympics). While I consider Taylor to be one of the most dominant college wrestlers in NCAA history, I think it’s fair to say his technical skills have improved significantly since the summer of 2014. Burroughs for his part has also undoubtedly added depth to his repertoire since then (for example, Burroughs has always been known for his double leg, but his sweep single has become an extremely reliable and effective attack for him). Second, as Ed alluded to, I think the weight difference really matters. Taylor’s transition to 86 kg allowed him to really fill out his long frame and to add some horsepower to his bruising style of hand-fighting and wrestling in the pocket. Sure, Burroughs just beat a similarly long and heavy Zahid Valencia (which was impressive to say the least), but I’m not sure Taylor’s conditioning will fade towards the end like Zahid’s did.
Jack, I’d be curious to hear why you don’t consider Taylor a physical guy - I actually consider him one of the most physical wrestlers in the game today. I think about his matches with Hassan Yazdani, who is a guy that routinely crushes his opponents’ souls with relentless hand-fighting, a punishing left underhook, and constant push-outs. To date, Taylor is the only guy I’ve seen that is able to weather the storm that is Yazdani’s physicality, and eventually beat him with superior conditioning and scrambling ability.
Jack: Dan, what I mean is that Taylor is not the kind of wrestler to really lean on his strength or size to overwhelm people; instead, his success seems to come from technical superiority, quickness, and pace, advantages that he doesn’t really have against Burroughs. If Burroughs were to wrestle someone like, say, Artur Naifanov, it seems like he might just get manhandled, but I don’t see that being the case here.
Dan: I see, thanks for the explanation. For my part, when I watch Taylor wrestle I really see the influence the Graham High School style of wrestling continues to have on his game. The Graham still is all about wrestling “in the pocket” (as they call it), which means using close range heavy hand-fighting to set up your offense. Taylor’s game, as I understand it, is built primarily around a strong left hand collar tie which sets up his ankle pick. Taylor then uses the ankle pick to set up the rest of his offensive attacks. This aggressive close range hand-fighting + Taylor’s high attack rate + his reliance on superior conditioning is why I consider him to be a very physical wrestler. I’m picking David Taylor to win.
Jack: Yeah, if the weight advantage makes a difference, it will probably be in Taylor’s ability to get Burroughs heavy on a leg before attacking it low. He got to that attack a couple times when they wrestled in 2014, and he’s been very successful with it up at 86. On further review of the tape, Taylor doesn’t throw away as many shots as I thought he did, which limits Burroughs’ opportunities for reattacks. Another point in Taylor’s favor is that if he can force Burroughs into taking single legs rather than doubles, he reduces the chance of a clean finish and increases the chances of an extended scramble, where he should have the advantage.
A while ago, before I’d put too much thought into this matchup, I decided that I was going to pick Burroughs. I’m sticking with that pick, though I see the reasons why it might not make sense. Burroughs has given up more leg attacks in the past few years than he used to, perhaps because he can’t blast through people as much anymore and has to wrestle from closer range and be more active with his hands. Taylor’s tactic of pulling on you to get you heavy over one leg could be made easier and more effective with the size advantage. But whether it’s Burroughs’ unbelievable toughness and fortitude, his history with Taylor, or just personal rooting interest, I’m picking Jordan Burroughs to win this match.
Ed: I’m still on the fence, but one factor that may help me decide is Taylor’s recent tight match with Gabe Dean in his return. It’s possible he’s a little rusty, and I think that’s what is going to tip me over the edge to pick Jordan Burroughs in a close one.
Seth Petarra: The dynamic of the substantial size difference (Burroughs walking around maxing out at 180 and Taylor over 200+ at 6 foot+) is a important one with regard to a match like this. You can argue a lot of Taylor’s matchups against Burroughs were when he was sucked down at 74 kilograms and got out-hustled and overpowered in key moments in the four-match series. With a more filled out Taylor, I see his defense posing the biggest issues for Burroughs. Even at 74 kilograms, Taylor was able to cause big early problems in their 2014 series by exposing Burroughs off extended shots with his cradle. The other issue I see JB facing here is that if he does get to legs on Taylor and is extended, and Taylor doesn’t directly expose him off his cradle series, I believe he’s going to have a lot of issues in being able to elevate and come out the back door and fight the far ankle scramble of Taylor.
Going to a point that Dan made about pace in this match and how Taylor isn’t so much of an explicit front runner as Zahid, who has had gas tank issues in the past from pushing so hard, I think Burroughs will have the edge in attack rate and ability. He’s the lighter man and can wrestle from space without giving up any speed against Taylor. Taylor is primarily going to be looking to break Burroughs’ positioning off snapdowns and level changes to set up his ankle pick and his knee pull single, but he also possesses a really solid double leg he finishes with authority, and a fireman’s carry off his front headlock that he most notably hit on Ed Ruth in their 2015 match at the U.S. Open. I don’t think Taylor attacks nearly as much as he did in 2014, and will have to deal with tiring out and getting countered off his shots. His added size does help his hand-fighting in setting up his attacks, where I think his biggest means to score here will be his knee pull single.
This match doesn’t scream offensive blowout from either man at all, but compared to Taylor, Burroughs has to go uphill much more than in his last series at 74 kilograms against Taylor. I’m expecting this to be a close win for David Taylor.
Burroughs: Jack Hurley + Ed Gallo
Taylor: Dan Sweeney + Seth Petarra
You can watch the pro card main event between Jordan Burroughs and David Taylor tonight on FloWrestling, starting at 8 PM EST.