Is Volkanovski’s Defensive Grappling Ready for Makhachev?
Photo by Brett Hemmings/Zuffa LLC
Introduction
This is a sampling of the responses I received after tweeting this highlight video shortly after it was announced that Alexander Volkanovski, the UFC’s current featherweight champion, was moving up in weight to challenge the newly crowned lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev. A myriad of news outlets shared the fight announcement on their social media pages and underneath each post there was a seemingly unanimous and unending stream of similar comments.
What could drive such a concerted effort to proclaim the imminent loss of MMA’s current pound for pound king? After all, Volkanovski is no ordinary champion. With an unblemished UFC career recently passing six years in duration, Volkanovski has already assembled a résumé that will place him alongside the best and greatest to ever compete. Furthermore, he has continued to improve rapidly and has clearly separated himself from the rest of featherweight’s elites. But, this isn’t a routine title defense at his natural weight class.
Even though Islam Makhachev was only inaugurated as the official top dog at 155 pounds three months ago, he has been seen by many as the heir apparent to the throne Khabib Nurmagomedov left vacant upon his retirement in October 2020. Seeing the spotless record of Khabib followed soon after by Islam’s mostly unencumbered climb to the top of the division has understandably convinced many that the Caucasus have forged an unbeatable class of fighters.
The big picture dynamics of the fight seem to be clear - if Volkanovski can manage to consistently stave off the offensive wrestling of Makhachev in a way that allows him to work his normal outside kickboxing game, he should have a sizable advantage on the feet. However, at first glance it’s hard to imagine a significantly smaller Volkanovski accomplishing this, especially considering how suffocating Islam has proven to be on top, making the margin for error very small for the featherweight champ.
Given that the fight likely hinges on whether Volkanovski’s defensive grappling is good enough to avoid takedowns, defend submissions, and escape bottom position, it’s necessary to closely revisit the footage from his UFC career before we can decide whether or not to agree with the expert opinions expressed in the Tweets quoted above.
Takedown Defense
While the deceptively broad category of “takedown defense” may seem like the first and most important step towards denying Makhachev the chance to extend his winning streak to twelve, in actuality it is footwork and cagecraft that is a fighter’s first and best way to avoid grappling exchanges. However, that topic is outside the scope of this discussion and you’ll have to dig into the immensely detailed breakdowns written by our former colleague Dan Albert (Part I, Part II, Part III) to get an idea of how sophisticated Volkanovski is as a ring general.
There’s a good chance that regardless of how difficult Volkanovski is to track down, eventually he will have to deal directly with the takedowns of Makhachev. The Dagestani has a varied repertoire and will look to exploit any cracks in Volkanovski’s defense, so it’s important to consider how Volkanovski has dealt with different types of takedowns in the past.
Reactive Shots
Thirty seconds into his UFC debut, Alexander Volkanovksi was taken down by a Japanese fighter still without a Wikipedia page, Yusuke Kasuya. As Volkanovski lunged forward with a shifting combination, eager to make a statement in his first fight for the promotion, Kasuya quickly ducked underneath a right hook and snatched the hips to secure a reactive double leg takedown. A year later, Shane Young was also able to get Volkanovski down in a similar manner, dropping underneath a right hook and finding Volkanovski in a square stance, driving straight through to topple him. Chad Mendes, the opponent who found the most consistent success getting Volkanovski down, was denied by a quick whizzer and good balance when he tried to counter an inside low kick with a double leg, but found success in the second round against a more aggressive Volkanovski.
Despite looking vulnerable to reactive doubles in some of these clips, it’s important to consider the shift in Volkanovski’s style over the course of his career. Early on, he was a committed pressure fighter, looking to press opponents against the fence while transitioning between periods of mauling top control and ferocious punch combinations to punish attempted escapes. This last clip above is illustrative - Volkanovski was jabbing and handfighting with his lead hand from range to set up his rear hand, but even though Holloway anticipated the right hook and ducked underneath it, because Volkanovski was still firmly in his stance he didn’t get bulldozed by the initial shot and instead quickly dismissed the threat with a whizzer and bicep control. However, don’t confuse Volkanovski with an archetypal outfighter like Stephen Thompson - Volkanovski will still turn to aggressive forward movement at moments where it facilitates his offensive goals.
It remains to be seen what his approach will be against Makhachev, but if Volkanovski maintains committed to elusive outfighting, he won’t be as vulnerable to reactive takedowns as he has been in the past.
Bodylocks
Perhaps more pertinent to the matchup with Makhachev are takedowns initiated from bodylock positions. Islam is no stranger to leg attacks, but he has a particular fondness for trips and throws from the clinch (check out this complilation of Makhachev’s takedowns). Unfortunately, Volkanovski is largely untested in this area and the instances shown above don’t bode well for his ability to stay on his feet when Makhachev locks up with him.
Most concerning is Brian Ortega’s fourth round bodylock takedown. Volkanovski was looking to set up a shifting right hook by first grabbing Ortega’s lead hand, a move that he found success with earlier in the fight, but Ortega ducked under the right hand and latched onto Volkanovski. Ortega was able to turn Volkanovski and put his back on the fence and while the initial outside trip was unsuccessful, Ortega found success with the inside trip as Volkanovski was looking to get his back off the fence.
Cage Wrestling
Fishing for singles and doubles against the fence is ubiquitous in MMA and it’s no surprise that Makhachev has also racked up a number of takedowns from this position. Only Jeremy Kennedy has significantly tested Volkanovski in this area, so it’s hard to derive any major conclusions from the clips above. Sure, Volkanovski looks strong and technically sound thwarting each of Kennedy’s attempts with a strong whizzer and underhook, but he was enjoying a physical mismatch that he’ll be on the wrong side of in his upcoming match.
Open Space
This is the Chad Mendes appreciation portion, where we lament how few fighters can shoot doubles in open space like this NCAA Division 1 all-american turned bare knuckle boxer. Look at how subtle feints create the opening and how beautifully he turns the corner on the finish. It may be shocking for some to read this, but Islam Makhachev is not as good as Chad Mendes at shooting double legs. However, that same thing can be said for nearly every other MMA fighter - Mendes really did have one of the best double legs in the sport.
Unfortunately, again there isn’t too much to take from the two examples shown above. It’s hard to determine whether Volkanovski is in any way vulnerable to open space attacks, but we can at least say it’s unlikely that he is as much of a stone wall as Jose Aldo (who Mendes still managed to take down a couple of times).
Scrambles
It seems clear given the above discussion that Volkanovski is going to get taken down at some point by Makhachev. But the battle is far from over after a takedown is conceded and the next layer to consider is Volkanovski’s ability to hang in the fast-paced scrambles before the position is settled. And it’s not just takedown attempts that lead to scrambles - MMA is a bizarre and chaotic sport where all manner of mayhem can lead to a scramble, and each of those moments has the potential to result in getting stuck under the suffocating top pressure of Makhachev.
Volkanovski hasn’t been involved in many scrambles in his twelve-fight UFC tenure, and in two of the instances he ended up on the bottom. Against Kasuya he didn’t manage to clear his left leg from the leg lock attempt before trying to come on top, allowing Kasuya to force him back down. Trying to wrap up a guillotine on Darren Elkins during a scramble is certainly a puzzling decision, but it’s not likely a mistake he will make against Makhachev, especially since it gave Elkins a shot at his hips and an opportunity to slam him down. Regardless of the lack of examples to draw from, Volkanovski is going to be the faster fighter in these circumstances and he’ll try to keep the momentum of the scrambles going, not accepting bottom position without a fight. Will he be able to win the scramble every time though?
Wall Walking
Even if Volkanovski gets taken down and even if he loses some of the scrambles, there are still further lines of defense that Makhachev will have to wade through. Volkanovski’s claim has been that even if Makhachev takes him down, he won’t be able to hold him there. Given the likelihood that many of the wrestling exchanges will take place on the fence, we can start to see a bit of hope for Volkanovski by noticing his wall walking aptitude.
Volkanovski is indeed very hard to hold down against the fence and even if he is taken down a few feet away from the cage, he will scoot as quickly as possible towards it and immediately start the process of freeing his legs and building back to his base. It’s important to note here just how integral his conditioning will be to turning this into a winning strategy against Makhachev. Even if fighters have been able to use similar tactics to momentarily escape bottom position, often it turns out to be a Pyrrhic victory. Volkanovski’s stamina is truly elite and you would be hard pressed to find a single moment where he was noticeably affected by exhaustion in a fight.
That being said, there are tactics that the fighter on top can employ to make wall walking exponentially more difficult. In fact, a common folkstyle wrist ride has been affectionately renamed the “Dagestani handcuffs” in MMA circles due to its popularization by Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev’s stablemate and coach. To start wall walking, you need a hand to post to the mat and fighters like Makhachev have built a whole game around routinely stripping that away, along with every other tool you need to escape. Strong control of the legs is another key component, so wrapping up your legs with his in a leg mount prevents the fighter on bottom from building up to his base.
Escapes
The longest period of time anyone has kept Volkanovksi on his back is the one minute that Kasuya was able to hold him there. While that may disprove his statement that he can’t be kept on his back, it’s still remarkable considering the handful of times he’s been taken down. Eventually, he was able to sweep Kasuya using a butterfly to elevate him before coming up on a single leg, ending the round on top landing thudding shots from top position. Against Shane Young, a strong underhook allowed him to sit up to a single leg position from half guard. And against Mendes, he even briefly got his back taken while turning to his hands and knees to build back up, but was able to wait until Mendes tried to take mount and explode out at the perfect moment.
These moments each show that Volkanovksi doesn’t lack urgency when put in disadvantageous positions. It’s feasible that Makhachev could exploit this by baiting him into attempting to escape, only to trap him in a submission. Both Kasuya and Young were all too eager themselves to hunt for submissions without first establishing the position, giving Volkanovski avenues to escape.
The most impressive escape was against Brian Ortega, who had just finished nearly choking him unconscious with a mounted guillotine. Still in mount, Ortega was searching for another opportunity to turn Volkanovski’s head purple, but Volkanovski calmly but quickly went through the proper steps to get out, escaping first to half guard from where he could use his underhook to come up on a single leg.
Submission Defense
If all else fails, Volkanovski will have to diligently avoid and escape the submission attempts of a fighter who has tapped out four of his last five opponents. It’s unlikely that many have forgotten the harrowing third round against Brian Ortega where Volkanovski seemed seconds away from going unconscious from a mounted guillotine only to find himself in a triangle moments later. For the 17 seconds Volkanovski was stuck in the guillotine, he desperately wiggled and kicked his legs while pushing on Ortega’s hips, looking for any possible reprieve. It’s unclear from the camera views exactly what caused Ortega to lose the grip, but without being able to free his legs and with the tightness with which Ortega glued himself to his chest, Volkanovski was forced to essentially wait it out while trying to force his chin down. For the triangle attempt, Volkanovski was able to turn to a more technical defense, rolling to his back and attempting to use his legs to create space in the choke while preventing Ortega from coming up to a mounted triangle position. Ortega’s fourth round guillotine was never particularly close and the fence blocked his ability to get the right angle on the choke.
However, in each instance Volkanovski was not just able to survive and escape the submission, but he was also able to immediately end up in a favorable position afterwards. Makhachev is unlikely to risk his positional advantages for submission attempts though and his lockdown pressure from top means that when he does latch onto something, he has usually gone through the necessary steps to preemptively remove most avenues of escape. Furthermore, during grappling exchanges Volkanovksi is going to be furiously looking for a way to get back to his feet, which will expose him to submissions even more.
Putting It All Together
Volkanovski is undoubtedly a very talented defensive grappler. He’s incredibly difficult to hold down and seemingly impossible to coax into submission. The gap in striking prowess between him and his opponent is even larger than the apparent disparity in grappling, providing several clear pathways to victory. However, it’s always difficult to predict how a fighter will look at a new weight class and moving up in weight to take on a streaking top-control grappler seems like a recipe for disaster. Makhachev will not just be heavier and stronger than anyone Volkanovski has faced at featherweight, he will be draping his 5’10 frame over top of a 5’6 Volkanovski, making every moment underneath him miserable. Volkanovski can attempt to compensate for his size and strength disadvantages with speed, especially in the scrambles, but it seems all too likely that in most if not all of the rounds he will end up on his back or pinned against the fence for significant periods of time.
Considering all this, if Volkanovski can engineer a winning gameplan, it will be one of the greatest wins in MMA history.