GUEST POST: Raphael Assunção vs. Cory Sandhagen Breakdown
The following article is a guest submission from known Twitter analyst and friend of the site Aidan Hayes (@aidan_mma), a student and practicing martial artist. Check out Aidan on Twitter for breakdowns and overall quality posting.
Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Fight Site staff.
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Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Raphael Assuncao and Cory Sandhagen both have fights this Saturday, at UFC 250. Assuncao faces former title challenger Cody Garbrandt, who is on a three-fight skid looking to get back into the win department. Sandhagen faces Aljamain Sterling, a perennial contender for the bantamweight title and a grappling savant. Both fights signify massive moments in both fighters’ careers - can Assuncao still compete with the hard hitting, uber-athletic bantamweight up-and-comers? Can Sandhagen make the next step to title contention? Through examining their last matchup, a tactical “chess-match” in the actual sense (not just Joe Rogan’s key axiom when a fight lags on), it reveals key details to those questions.
Dealing With the Jab
As Sriram explained in his article “Greatkeeper”, Assuncao used a multitude of tools to deal with Rob Font’s jab. Assuncao used many of the same tools vs. Sandhagen, a committed jabber in his own right. From the get-go of the opening bell, Sandhagen immediately went to his desired niche, forcing Assuncao back with committed pressure footwork and a jab. Assuncao immediately went to his first layer of defense vs. the jab - his hand fighting.
Using a series of parries, catches, and straight extensions of the arm, Assuncao creates a barrier from straight punches that allows him to counter and defend. It also helps to slow the exchanges down and have them on Assuncao’s terms. But, watch how he reacts to the subtle feints of Sandhagen in the same way he would a regular jab. Sandhagen will look to exploit that later on.
Assuncao uses his hand fighting here, specifically “catching” to stop Sandhagen short, just to counter with an overhand right. Aside from the obvious impact of the strike, it also serves as a deterrent to the common hand fighting counters, as it discourages entries. Watch how he gets right back to hand fighting after, showing his discipline to a thorough gameplan.
However, there is a reason why it is only the first layer. While Assuncao’s specific use of counters from the handfighting act as a deterrent for entries, dedicated feinters and combination punchers can exploit Assuncao’s hand fighting. To the credit of Sandhagen and his coaches, he brilliantly adjusted throughout the fight to do just that.
Sandhagen began to simply lift his lead arm and place it out, forcing Assuncao to do the same as a reaction. Once he did so, he went straight to changing levels.
Sandhagen also would feint to force the reaction of Assuncao, just to kick up the middle with body kicks. Lead body kicks are a staple of Sandhagen’s game, as they keep him safe from counters and utilize the full advantage of his length. Moreover, he would often use front kicks to keep the distance between Assuncao and himself.
The natural extended motion of the arms does not bode well vs hooks. Due to Assuncao’s brilliant positioning and general ability to “draw” his opponent’s on, he is usually able to counter the hooks with his own hooks. But, Sandhagen’s consistent use of stance switches displaced Assuncao and forced him to positions he was not comfortable in.
Sandhagen would also draw out the handfight of Assuncao before jabbing towards Assuncao’s centerline. As the natural position of the handfight moves the rear hand away from the body, it deloads any possible rear hand counter, he can move deep to the center-line freely. This movement was a favorite of Max Holloway’s in his fight vs Brian Ortega. This stepping in forces Assuncao to circle away and focus less on defense. Sandhagen slips an uppercut in.
Being able to make these reads and adjustments both before the fight and during the fight bode well for Sandhagen’s future in the sport. In this fight with Sterling, who is lengthy and struggles vs. level-changing combination punchers, as we saw in the Munhoz fight, Sandhagen is sure to control the exchanges with his jabbing, feinting, body work, footwork, and overall adaptability.
In Assuncao’s own right, having a consistent system to control the entries of pressure fighters will be key vs Garbrandt, even though Garbrandt isn’t a particularly committed pressure fighter. Garbrandt will need a way to work his way into the pocket where he can then use his superior athleticism and physicality to his advantage, but Garbrandt simply does not have the feinting, stance-switching, or the ability to make reads like a Cory Sandhagen. Garbrandt cannot box his way into range like Sandhagen could, as he just isn’t comfortable doing so. Rather he blitzes into the pocket, hoping his speed and power will discourage counters. Blitzing against someone who can control the pace exceptionally well, stop blitzes short with counters, and has good footwork is not a great strategy, and Assuncao excels at all of those. A big part of being able to commandeer and force exchanges with Assuncao will be to jab, feint, and make those reads. Garbrandt has never shown those three in conjunction, at least so far. Once Garbrandt cannot work his way in, whether it be from being countered on his straight punches or just lacking in the pressure footwork department, he often loses his cool and becomes counterable. Assuncao will be able to control the pace and the exchanges and have them on his own terms, where his superior positioning/footwork and countering skill will come into play.
Assuncao’s 2nd layer of dealing with entries was also apparent in the Sandhagen fight. Once he has the overall “rhythm” of the fight, he begins to counter the entries of his opponents. He would also adjust to the issues that Sandhagen brought.
The handfighting + his understanding of rhythm allows him to have an overall feel for when Sandhagen will enter. As such, as soon as Sandhagen feints and shifts his weight, he launches a leg kick. It lands hard but Sandhagen continues to look to counter with a hook off of it.
Assuncao begins to start slipping slightly when Sandhagen taps the hands, feeling out the entry. This allows him to counter with a small check hook, before Sandhagen weaves out of the pocket.
Assuncao gets a feel for the entry of Sandhagen and instantly steps away, forcing Sandhagen to circle to his right if he wants to hit, this draws him onto the cross-counter. Forcing Garbrandt to follow like this will be key to staying safe and landing counters.
Assuncao’s ability to get a feel for the entries of his opponents will also be a key factor for his fight for Cody. Cody isn’t very advanced at changing the rhythm of his entries or even in his exchanges, he moves at one pace which makes him exceptionally counterable. Garbrandt’s blitzing will put him in real trouble vs Assuncao’s feel for rhythm/entries and his overall craft on the backfoot. Moreover, Assuncao’s counter leg kicks will provide a serious issue for Cody as Munhoz kicked him repeatedly with not *near* the amount of countering skill or speed as Assuncao.
For Sandhagen, his ability to lengthen exchanges that start him at a huge disadvantage (being leg kicked or being cross-countered) will be a factor vs Sterling. Sterling, naturally a fighter who prefers to stay at range so he can use his jab and shoot his low-singles will not love a “dirty” fight with long exchanges. Sandhagen simply has more depth in creating and winning those exchanges, as the better combination puncher between the two and the better feinter/jabber.
Drawing the Opponent On
As mentioned earlier, Assuncao’s ability to use his footwork allows him to create a small window of superior positioning where he is able to land counters with *less* of a risk than if he were to stay straight on. A favorite of fighters from Assuncao to Munhoz to Adesanya, drawing the opponent by getting outside of their lead foot (or rear foot in a opposite stance match) forces them to close the distance which gives a small window for rear attacks like leg kicks and straights. Also, it provides an opportunity to break the overall rhythm of the fight and catch the opponent off-guard, seen in the last GIF before here.
Assuncao circles and forces Sandhagen to follow. He does and Assuncao can kick freely as Sandhagen is resetting and landing his foot. An excellent sign for Assuncao, as Munhoz did the same thing to Cody.
He doesn’t just do it to counter either, forcing Sandhagen to move before he is able to lead gives him a window to throw his own jab as Sandhagen follows and resets the exchange. His lead breaks the rhythm of their feet and allows him to hit Sandhagen clean whilst he is off-guard. Garbrandt's 2nd means of entering to these pocket exchanges will be to counter, but Assuncao forces the feet to move before he leads which will disrupt Cody’s reads.
When you are at a significant speed, power, and physicality disadvantage in exchanges, as Assuncao was/is vs Garbrandt and Sandhagen, forcing exchanges with distinct positional advantages is absolutely pertinent. As I explained in my own video “How Pedro Munhoz finished Cody Garbrandt”, Munhoz forced Cody to follow him just to break his own rhythm and counter Cody on the way in. Assuncao can and likely will do the same thing to Cody, as he did so vs a better and more composed vs a better enterer into the pocket in Sandhagen
Again however, Sandhagen isn’t just blind to how to deal with the certain tactical things that Assuncao did. He began attacking Assuncao’s attempts to draw him on with feints and a beautiful kicking game that punished the lead leg of Assuncao. Moreover, he again went to stance-switching as a means to close the distance, which caused Assuncao to hesitate and took away the small window for a positional advantage.
The natural motion of circling away leaves the front leg open to be kicked. Sandhagen exposed just that, subtly feinting high to freeze the reactions of Assuncao before kicking hard.
Circling away from Sandhagen would give him a small advantage in timing to counter, but Sandhagen’s consistent stance switching changed his reads and forced him to hesitate before he would throw. Also, notice how Sandhagen only exposes his hips as square for a quick second as he switches.
Assuncao, who typically has an astute body/leg kick defense game whilst standing still, falls apart under a consistent pressure and while moving side to side. Garbrandt can kick and tie them together with his hooks, but he isn’t adept at forcing movement before doing so. Sandhagen was able to have success because he is adept at forcing that movement. Vs. Sterling, who isn’t too layered defensively vs kicks or punches, his use of feints and kicks to freeze reactions (seen in 1st GIF here) will be a factor.
Will Cody be able to switch stance like Sandhagen and others (Moraes) did with success vs Assuncao? Unless Mark Henry made real good changes to his game, I don’t see him being able to make that read or even being able to exploit it. He has not done it with any success in his career.
Grappling
When I asked for “non-FLW fights with good scrambles” this fight was recommended more than once and for good reason. Sandhagen’s main takedown defense, as Ed puts it so eloquently in the Wrestling for MMA Podcast, is “to scramble”. That’s mostly true. Sandhagen does not exist to whizzer, sprawl, and fight grips to break from takedown attempts, rather he loves to go to scrambling first, ignoring the typical first 4 lines of takedown defense. If the grip is loose enough on a single leg, he will occasionally limp leg out, but besides that he is fully committed to the scramble, for better or for worse. As a black belt in BJJ, Assuncao can grapple with the best of them but struggled vs a unique wrestling style in Sandhagen that he had likely not faced ever.
As Sandhagen was finding continued success on the feet, Assuncao looked to test the waters in the grappling game. Anytime Sandhagen would get too close to him in the pocket, he would look to tie up and lock his hands to use his strength and push Sandhagen against the cage. This is a key tactic for Assuncao for when Cody is able to get into the pocket, as it will provide him a safe haven where he can force a reset at range.
A favorite of many scramblers and a legitimate tactic vs Khabib Nurmagomedov, one of the best chain wrestler in MMA history, Sandhagen routinely turns his back when his opponent locks any sort of bodylock on him. This allows him to fight grips, but also forces his opponents to mat return him which gives him areas to scramble from the turtle position that he often lands in. Against a good wrestler (specifically a good rider/mat returner), like Aljo, this strategy can be exploited but Assuncao simply did not have the depth to attack it well.
Assuncao also looked to shoot directly to the legs and build off of that to the upper body work. As Sandhagen went square to land his kick, he closed the distance quickly and chained the leg attack straight to a peek-out to the back. Aljo loves to chain lower/upper body takedowns like this. As a true-to-heart scrambler, Sandhagen welcomed giving his back as it gave him an ability to break the grips or force Assuncao to take him down. However, Assuncao struggles from this traditional mat return position like an Aljo typically would not. He simply sat down, which allowed Sandhagen to leverage his body up and clear his legs. From there, he could stick his arm between his legs and leverage up to eventually turn into half guard.
The low single and high crotch defense for Sandhagen will have to be on point vs Aljo, who is committed to using those as means to get to his upper-body game. Just before here, he attacks the ankle, hindering Assuncao’s movement. Then, he positioned himself to lock around the crotch and roll through. Notice how the trapped lead arm slows the common escape from here, which is to shelf the leg high and turn in. Aljo will exploit that. He makes a mistake and rolls over his own back, not pushing Assuncao over his own shoulders which leaves him in a leg entanglement. A more experienced wrestler will be able to post out to stop the roll, leaving them on top. Aljo will be able to get the better of him here.
Assuncao draws Sandhagen on before shooting deep on the leg. Instead of doing the traditional head-stuff to whizzer to kicking the leg out or sprawling, he looks to go for the crotch lock again. He is able to get a deep overhook on the leg, but Assuncao (not a great wrestler) is able to post his elbow out, splice his legs, and shoot through. Aljo can and will likely do the same.
Assuncao will look to use the clinch and reactive shots as means to create some space for himself when Cody attempts to bull rush into the pocket, as he did vs Sandhagen. Will he be able to find consistent success if it hits the ground? I do not think so. His top game is not well adapted to MMA and struggles vs high level athletes. Add in Garbradnt’s legitimate wrestling background and it will be hard for Assuncao to find consistent success in the grappling arena.
Sandhagen will likely get shot on multiple times in this matchup vs Aljamain Sterling. His defense of scrambling can and will get him into trouble. Against another high level athlete who has a better wrestling game than most, scrambling instead of typical defense will waste energy and find little success, especially when there is such a distinct advantage on the feet.
Concluding Thoughts
I am genuinely excited to see these fights. Both have interesting storylines behind them, skilled fighters, and great athletes. For a division seemingly cursed with odd title fights are brutal matchmaking, these fights signal hope for the future, as they pit two title contenders to see who’s ready and the old guard vs a skidding new guard.