Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje: TFS Staff’s Initial Reads
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC
We started this when the Tony Ferguson - Justin Gaethje fight was initially announced.
A few weeks later, and our thoughts are much the same. So join The Fight Site team as we discuss our opening thoughts on this fight, whether it’s a good one, and what our snap judgements are to how it might go.
And continue to follow us for lots more coverage of the interim lightweight title fight and our predictions for the other interesting fights on the card as we inch closer to fight night. Later today we will post our breakdowns on Justin Gaethje’s routes to victory, followed by a look at Tony Ferguson’s.
First Impressions
Kyle McLachlan: My first thoughts are mixed to be honest. And I’m not going to get into the whole ‘is it morally okay to stage a sporting event during a pandemic’ thing either. I’m generally disappointed that we might never get to see Ferguson vs. Khabib. As a historian, the importance of matchups like me is not lost on me. Even if it happened too late (much like Mayweather vs. Pacquiao) Khabib vs. Ferguson for all the marbles at 155lbs is a classic matchup we really needed to see.
And Justin Gaethje will likely wreck those plans for all eternity in my opinion as stylistically he might well be the perfect fighter to stop Ferguson in his tracks.
However, I don’t really have a dog in this fight. I’m a fan of both fighters. Both fighters annoy me for certain other reasons. So, whoever wins, fair play to ‘em. At this stage, Gaethje vs. Khabib is probably a more intriguing fight anyway.
But I can’t help but shake the feeling that we lose something if Khabib vs. Ferguson never happens.
Danny Martin: This is an absolutely brutal piece of matchmaking, and a viciously cruel place to leave Tony Ferguson. As much as I love Justin Gaethje and want him to win, Ferguson shouldn’t be here and I can’t shake the feeling that his window has been closing for a while. For all of his varied competition, he hasn’t faced a lot of punchers and Gaethje has looked terrific recently, albeit against some fairly easy competition. This did serve a purpose beyond simply giving Gaethje time to reset and rethink; it also rebuilt his confidence. He looks like a fierce contender at this point, and I don’t know how much his counterpart does. The big question for me is, “how much do we expect from Tony Ferguson anymore?”
Lukasz Fenrych: I’m not as down as some of my colleagues on Tony’s chances here, but what’s certain is that whatever ultimately happens, he’s going to take one hell of a beating. Gaethje is well placed to either take a lot of his best threats away (Ferguson’s unpredictability on the ground won’t phase him) or match him stride for stride in areas where Tony’s used to having an advantage (most fighters wilt under Tony’s ever-increasing pressure and volume. Gaethje will love it). Even if he wins, if Tony has any prime left this is likely to use up the last of it (but don’t get it twisted, short of a quick finish it’ll take a lot out of Gaethje too). It’s probably not a fight that should be happening even without the insanity of staging a combat sport event in the midst of a medical emergency that is overwhelming medical services worldwide, but it’s what we’re getting, and hopefully it won’t knock the stuffing out of the division for the near future.
Mateusz Fenrych: I’d still rather see Khabib-Tony; that fight feels like one of the few true legacy fights available to MMA at the moment, given the narratives surrounding the two fighters.
However, Gaethje has built up enough of a mythos around himself, justifiably, that makes this fight just as compelling. And, with an eye on the match-up with Khabib as a consequence of this fight, it’s likely Gaethje will simply be less diminished in victory than Tony would be, thus making him as a potential opponent for the champ an agreeable outcome.
Ben Kohn: It’s really hard to be able to feel fully satisfied with how everything is playing out in the UFC Lightweight division right now. Khabib/Tony being cancelled for the 5th time and setting up a fight between Tony and Gaethje for an interim title fight (i.e. another #1 contender) feels….empty. It’s hollow, as there’s no way either of them could possibly be at their best. Also worth noting Tony did a full blown extra weight cut not long ago, and I can’t imagine it’s fun doing it again at his age and size.
So we get a fight between 2 of the top guys, almost guaranteed not to be at their best, facing off in the most ridiculous of circumstances. Tony losing would not feel wrong, but be wrong. Longest win streak, tried to fight Khabib 5 times, and it’s seemingly destined to be derailed for good here.
I will of course be happy for Gaethje if he wins, but I won’t be able to help but feel gutted for Tony. If Tony pulls it out, it likely seals Gaethje’s fate as a gatekeeper going forward as well, so big sad there too.
Tommy Elliot: I hate Ferguson’s chances here. Gaethje’s durability and power seem tailor made to neutralize his main advantage of pressure and pace as I think Justin will be able to hurt him early (Tony being a notoriously slow starter) and take some wind out his sails for the later rounds even if he doesn’t finish him in the first or second. The clinch won’t be the usual safe space for Tony as Gaethje is happy to stand in close and bang and is more than capable of doing so successfully. The guys who have beaten Justin in the UFC had to go through hell to do it and both had more one shot power than Tony, I just don’t see Ferguson’s largely attritional style working out well for him here. You can’t break Gaethje mentally and I don’t think Tony can break him physically, especially not at this point in his career.
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti : Tony is a stud for taking that fight but who ever doubted that in the first place. Tony’s level of opposition hasn’t been that high (post-prime Cerrone, Pettis) and had to deal with that big surgery. Reasons and logic makes me want to pick Justin Gaethje by KO inside 2 rounds. Tony is too hittable and his footwork will be the reason for his downfall. Does Tony get hurt every fight bad and then come back and win ? Yes that’s what he does so if there’s one crazy irrational fighter that can do it that’s El Cucuy. Also nobody mentioned this but from Tony’s long win streak, his biggest/best opponent is the man he’ll fight this saturday. I’ve been a Gaethje believer for a longtime, I said two years ago that he was the best lightweight in the world and will never back down from it. Gaethje by knockout round two.
Kyle: Philippe is right, in terms of Tony’s recent opposition. His last elite scalp was RDA (terrific performance from Ferguson by the way) and it’s not like he hasn’t got into wars with lesser opposition than Gaethje as of late. Wild matchmaking from the UFC, but then imagine how hyped we will all be if Ferguson beats Gaethje first before (finally) fighting Khabib.