Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier: Staff Picks
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
After the retirement of Khabib Nurmagomedov — who did essentially everything an all-time great champion can be expected to, if perhaps not as much of it as people would’ve liked - the lightweight division proved to be more open than it had been in a long time. Nurmagomedov kept one of the best divisions in the sport under his thumb for years as a champion and even longer as a prospect, but with his absence, the lightweight championship gained in intrigue what it lost in '“lineal” appeal (at least for that moment); suddenly, it seemed that any of the elites could snatch the belt, and none of them were assured to last a long time among the others. While there are several intriguing arcs in this new phase of lightweight — the Justin Gaethje redux against top fighters who are not the erstwhile champion, Michael Chandler looking to continue an accomplished career from Bellator, even Beneil Dariush becoming a very credible dark horse — none were as compelling as those of the men on the marquee at UFC 269.
For Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier is an opportunity to prove that he isn’t just a beneficiary of chaos — that he didn’t just nick a vacant belt in the night against a top-5er, but could absolutely be a long-reigning champion moving forward. While Oliveira’s story of redemption seemed to hit a peak with the championship around his waist in May 2021, “Do Bronx” can cement his status as a top pound-for-pound fighter by beating one of them. On Dustin Poirier’s part, Oliveira represents the final hurdle in a journey that has involved rising and falling and rising again. Oliveira at his peak would certainly be one of the better wins of his career — but more importantly for his legacy, the win would get him the championship that has eluded him despite the swathe of destruction “The Diamond” has wrought among most of 155’s best fighters.
The Fight Site staff bring our expectations for a conflict that’s both narratively crucial and technically more dynamic than any in recent memory — between the resurrection of “do Bronx” as one of the most dangerous fighters in the world, and Dustin Poirier’s tireless quest for 25 minutes to eternity.
Dan Albert: There’s almost too much to discuss or cover here, which may well say how good of a matchup this is. Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier are among the greatest action fighters to ever grace MMA and they happen to be pretty damn good. It’s difficult to find fighters who’ve clawed their way out of the UFC’s meat grinder matchmaking, though the evolution of both men into two of the most prolific, experienced pugilists on the roster has been its own reward. Still, this is very much a fight that I feel will be decided on the margins and who can capitalize on them more.
Oliveira’s refined pressure game is built around his counterpunching, kicking game and aggressive transitions. What’s evident is how Oliveira will chain many of these aspects together from the opening bell to wear his man down to a state where he can finish them, such as the use of single collar ties or underhooks off his lead hand strikes to hit to the body or shove them against the fence. In particular, Oliveira’s lanky frame obstructs how ludicrously strong he is and how he can sometimes surprise and compete with more athletic fighters (e.g. Kevin Lee, Michael Chandler). It’s especially prevalent in his tradework body lock takedown, often constructed reactively; he’ll bait opponent counters with habitual dips and threaten counters, then use the same motion to pursue said takedown. Once he ties up with them, the transitions on the ground can happen instantly and immediately. Oliveira’s timing on the counter is also threatening in neutral space and particularly on the entries and exits. He will consistently attempt to punctuate to keep pushing the opponent back. When it comes to opportunistic or surprising threats in the lightweight division, Oliveira may well stand near the top.
Against Dustin Poirier, whose patented pocket boxing game has allowed him to best many of MMA’s striking royalty, his ability to chain offense quickly is going to be his advantage, if only because Poirier’s concessions on the backfoot remain the American’s biggest problem. That said, Poirier will offer threats on the backfoot that not many of Oliveira’s previous opponents have. For instance, Poirier’s lead hand is incredibly versatile at jabbing ranges and punctuating exchanges on his terms (esp. when he pairs it with his counter left), even if he’s facing relentlessly attritive pressure threats such as Justin Gaethje. Moreover, for all the comfort Oliveira has had in exchanges, his head tends to remain on the centerline and has been countered consistently (e.g. Kevin Lee, David Teymur, and Michael Chandler) when he starts jabbing. This will be a problem if Poirier looks to handfight and step in with combinations. In other words: the longer exchanges are, the more danger Oliveira (who can be hurt by good punchers) is liable to find himself in. And, make no mistake, this fight will be more dangerous for Oliveira on the backfoot than the other way around, especially if Poirier can touch his way in behind kicks and his jab. That said, Oliveira can take some lessons from Poirier’s previous opponents and craft exchanges on his terms. Using the aforementioned handfight, Oliveira could turn that into a chance to kick Poirier or force resets; if Poirier kicks, catch them and push for scrambles or tie-ups; the list goes on. There will be potential danger zones for Oliveira should he find himself in the clinch or scrambles, however. For tie-ups, Poirier will search for grips in the clinch and will break out and flurry – and is at least strong enough to fend off the notably physical Justin Gaethje there. Although takedowns are important, Oliveira will have to careful of shooting reactive shots below the hip to avoid that Poirier guillotine. I can’t speak too much on the ground, though I can see Poirier’s success in his bouts with Nurmagomedov and Pettis surprising Oliveira a bit here. The transitions, if they happen though, will be enormously dangerous for Poirier, who can be stalled in some positions.
Anyhow, there’s still even more to this fight than the above to consider, though I’ll say this: If this fight is competitive, you shouldn’t be surprised; if it ends immediately, you definitely shouldn’t be surprised when you consider how lethal these two are as finishers – this is a fight where quite a bit can happen and which outcome will happen, again, is probably determined by who can capitalize on those margins the best. Truth be told, I don’t think this fight goes past the third round. If it does, Oliveira better hope he can stall or control engagements on his terms against a five-round threat that won’t lose potency. I do believe that it will be a fantastic contest however long it lasts. There’s no right pick here – it’s a coinflip – and as much as I think Poirier probably stuns him and puts him on the backfoot consistently, I’ll take a chance with: Charles Oliveira by third round submission.
Sriram Muralidaran: 155 is chaos all the time, so Oliveira/Poirier is a fight I'm very glad is happening in a reasonably timely manner. Any belt would've struggled for legitimacy after the retirement of Khabib Nurmagomedov, but Oliveira's historical vulnerability (and the subsequent losses of Lee and Ferguson, two of his better wins) meant that he struggled even more; on the other hand, Poirier took the mantle of the people's champion with his knockouts of Conor McGregor, but the people's champion doesn't equal being the champion. A decisive winner here gets all the marbles - Poirier wouldn't erase his loss to the lineal champion but would be in a position to surpass his resume, and Oliveira would prove a true terror to the division and not just an anomalous transition between two greats.
What's most interesting - at least in terms of a fight for a belt at a division often considered the best - is how much Oliveira/Poirier likely swings on both being incredibly unreliable in certain areas. If anything, I think the fight hinges on Oliveira having specific and smart responses to Poirier's trademark shifting - something he's specifically vulnerable to defensively, but also something he possesses the tools to punish with extreme prejudice. Oliveira's bout against Chandler showed a lot of good things, but also how his linear retreats and general uprightness (in addition to a lack of real defensive comfort) can get him into trouble against punchers who can rapidly cover distance and smartly combination-punch around his highguard - and that's the Poirier game in a nutshell, with the slight wrinkle of the footwork of the shift putting him in a good spot to simply get reactively bodylocked.
To be clear, I don't think Poirier is a sitting duck in the clinch - where his offense off the handfight and collartie is swift and brutal. I also don't think he's a sitting duck on the ground - Oliveira has looked tighter positionally than he used to, but doesn't have Nurmagomedov's wealth of options to shut down wallwalking and work against the fence (where most of that fight happened), and Poirier is historically more than competent at grappling. However, it's the sort of tool that Oliveira can use to disrupt Poirier buying space (in addition to the front kick that gains prominence in open stance) - if shifting gets Poirier punished, his shoddy ringcraft leaves him a winnable fight for a kicky pressure-counterpuncher like Oliveira, even if it's still dangerous. Oliveira extending the range and kicking Poirier would be an interesting challenge if he can make it happen, as Poirier's been kicked to the point of visible damage a few times at 155 and the pressure can keep the exchanges on Oliveira's terms to counter within them.
However, I think I ultimately have trouble trusting that outcome to happen. Oliveira getting to pressure seems like half the battle at best, when Kevin Lee standing his ground was able to counter Oliveira in exchanges and Poirier is a much more poised puncher who will be there for five - whereas a backfoot fight for Oliveira seems instantly disastrous with his defensive habits. In addition, while Oliveira has looked tougher and cleverer than he used to, fighting one of the absolute toughest fighters to ever live - who beat Max Holloway over five in what largely resembled Max Holloway's fight - seems like a spot where he'll be tested physically and mentally more than he has in quite some time. Oliveira's counters are a big threat in this fight with Poirier's footwork, but Poirier also seems defensively attentive and difficult to shake in even exchanges in a way that Oliveira just isn't, at least to this point - and Poirier isn't hard to back up with a wrestling threat, but he's really difficult to back up for free if the path is exchanging with him. Oliveira could just walk out and trash Poirier on the floor, he's immensely dangerous, but I think Oliveira is the fighter walking the tightrope in most iterations of this one. Poirier via TKO4.
Haxxorized: Looks like meat’s back on the menu, boys.
I love this fight, and so should you. Two of the toughest, kindest, most self-aware and yet most unlikely fighters in one of the most stacked divisions imaginable, throwing hands for money and our enjoyment?
Despite being the resident cynic, that can fuck off to the daisies for a week. Instead, let us talk about this fight as a celebration of everything good in MMA right now.
Ultra-Instinct Poirier has become a monstrous pocket-boxer who can kick (usefully), grapple (especially from the clinch), mixed with some purposeful and intelligent bolted-on accessories (kicking, TD attempts, transitional threats) that have made him into the well-rounded elite-level MMA competitor almost nobody ever expected him to be. Such development comes as a pleasant surprise to anyone invested in MMA sport full of anointed ATG contenders who relied on (rather than leveraged) talent. His skills have improved to the point where the number of fighters you or I could feel confident existing in the Dustinsphere of pocket-punishment (TM) on size parity .. it is either Yan or Max, and I suspect Yan is probably still reaching into his bag of clinchy, wrestly-tricks and abusing the backward ringcraft of the Diamond to be safe. As for Max? Well, we saw that, did we not? Fucking barn fire, that was.
Oh sure - If it is about hands (or folds into the improved throwing of said hands), The Diamond may as well fucking be forever. But as much fun as it would be to spend all day jerking off in some hipster kumbayah circle about how great the best weapons of Dustin Poirier are, we all collectively should remember a time where he was not a promise of all that, as opposed to fighting for the title.
There was a point where Dustin had nobody and nothing. He could bang a bit, he could hit, but that was about all he had going on for him. Idiot backed up more than a bad attempt at copying the second season of the Wire, had a terrible jab, was as fragile as the collective UFC commentary desk ego and had no qualities suggesting top 10 let alone better win a fucking title or Ryan Wagner calls him names. So he went back to it. We saw him refine new techniques like his jab against Miller - both to do leady-jabby things and help cover that old bugbear of squaring in the pocket. His confidence in shifting attacks grew and thereby allowed him to more consistently walk at/through, catch and punish linear retreats (even sticking it to a fighter as great as Max Holloway!). His body grew up and out (he got big, without the big), his shoulder roll became an ugly and consistent way to bolt defensive layers together, he tacked on some kicks, developed a coherent hand-fighting game, and chained it all together.
And now here he is. He became a real, grown-ass mixed martial artist. The issues remain - especially on retreats, a component in how Khabib smashed him. Dustin is not perfect - the flaws are entirely there, and Oli has every opportunity to abuse them to score a decisive victory. Some of these flaws are so significant you can make the argument parts of his game are not even good (spoilers: given his late-career turnaround, he was never going to be), but to try and pretend his late-career turnaround has been anything short of compelling and inspiring ... get out of here, you irony poisoned manchild. Dustin is about as good as he has ever been, is fighting for a title, and we should enjoy him for as long as we have him here.
Such thoughts bring us to Charles Olivera.
Oh sure, Charles could threaten with submissions like it was just business and had some fistic threats built on solid, fundamental principles. The eternal problem was he was a special kind of unacceptable in the world of MMA (or seen as such) - quitter. It did not matter that Charles had slowly sharpened up his jab and found subtle, balanced ways to adjust his weight over (and under) his feet or work that jab (and his kicking game) into safer and safer pressuring or improved countering. It was insignificant that he had fundamentally sound ideas on the importance of pressure or methodical footwork for ages, and with refinement, could blossom. It did not matter that his blocking, parrying, framing and distance management was slowly yet purposefully assembling itself into a menagerie of workable defensive adaptations to cover his upright stance. It was again irrelevant that his reactive takedowns, bodylocks or clinch transitions had also developed in ways that made a similar amount of sense and built a diverse threat that was greater than the sum of its parts.
No, he was just a quitter. And we cannot abide a quitter in MMA. Never mind that he kept coming back and trying again, for Oli had to be a quitter - and this would not change. Once a quitter, always a quitter, needs to embrace the grind, so on and on she goes. This narrative ran somewhat aground when he started winning. While some (Hi, Simon) argued this turnaround had more to do with a phenomenal work rate and an obsession with improvement, a guy who did whatever it took to become that extra 1 or 2% better until he just was - but MMA has no time for fantasies. But there are, of course, other interpretations. He broke Kevin Lee, but he was also just a quitter. Then he fought Ferguson - but Tony had his best beaten out of him Gaethje-style. And then he fought Chandler - a Chandler who pushed Eddie Alvarez to his limits and (after) survived a three-round war with the prince of thudding pain himself, Gaejthe. Chandler dropped him in the first round and beat him up and down the shop. Oh sure, Oli had some success in the fight, but this was it, right?. A quitter is as a quitter does, yeah? All that technique, improvement, self-awareness stuff - does not matter when the heart is glass, yeah?
Oli stopped him in the second round.
There are a lot of tough guys in the world. Not even most of them can have their greatest nightmare (and until that fight, most enduring legacy) failure-wise shoved down their throat and fight back.
Oli did.
As Charles himself said after finishing Michael Chandler in UFC 252:
"Michael said I couldn’t take pressure. And he hit, and hit, and hit. And I’m still here.”
Yeah, you are.
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So what do I have to say about the specifics of the fight? Well, two things.
1) I love that you can argue their win conditions invert the paths they took to get here.
Against Chandler, Oliveira took a beating, gave a beating and found some heavy-fist-to-leaping-wrestler-face moments to get his hand raised. It was an exceptional effort and demonstrated toughness and maturity that have arguably eluded the veteran at other points, but I think it would be fair to say this happened on terms Chandler enforced. Likewise, his one-sided beating of a heavily diminished Tony was more or less a blank canvas for Oli to work. Yet I think the key to beating Dustin for Oli is to be a more well-rounded mixed martial artist or at least convincingly sell the game plan of somebody taking that approach. The backward movement of Poirier feels like the best place to attack for Oli to impose his will, and he is a damned savvy counterpuncher himself these days - he can and probably should build his underrated physical strength (in grappling and transitions) to his underrated technical proficiency (striking-wise).
Likewise, the Dustin destruction of the Conor mystique was in many ways built on being an all-around better fighter. Yes, the Dustin approach to pocket boxing has come on in leaps and bounds while Conor has done little but stagnate. Yet it certainly only was not his only weapon (nor would it have been wise for it to be so!) - Dustin employed transitional threats, kicks and even a little rough and tumble GNP where appropriate. He was the modern MMA competitor and made Conor pay the price for his comparative lack of depth, breadth, or ability to survive checked kicks. That said, my colleagues have made solid arguments that the optimal vs-Oli fight is kept more narrowly within the confines of pocket boxing wherever possible and away from any haziness or indistinct transitional threats in the clinch or on the ground.
2) These two fighters got here because they never stopped improving.
Every crotchety old-ass man is supposed to have a phrase they yell at children while waving a cane to get them off the front lawn. I remain unsure of my proximity to the cane stage, so I shall go with the confused middle-aged self-hating man slogan instead: and mine is
Self-awareness is a superpower.
So much of a sport like MMA is run by delusion. Customers pretend the UFC is not a shitpile that enjoys first-mover advantage and a heavily unregulated market at the expense of everything to do with the fights. The UFC supposes people have loyalty to them. Fighters pretend that they will be noticed or appreciated for how good they are as competitors instead of how well they fit a narrowly defined set of metrics from a company possessing comparatively little experience in sports (talent management company!), let alone combat sports.
Promoters pretend that starting a race-bait war every two weeks is not an effective way to earn clicks because we are all lizard brains. Dan Albert argues that people other than him invest in the physical health of fighters outside of the occasional sad moment post-beating or virtue signalling. Tumen pretends he is snapping the necks of the 35-year-old white guy with dad facial hair reply guys who disliked his approach to the latest Tengridome/Heavy Hands crossover. Sriram continues to operate on the assumption that none of us will notice Rob Font is neither old nor shot nor a savvy Brazilian counterpuncher (and arguably just got beaten by a combination of all three).
Ultimately, you have to acknowledge that you have flaws - or at least areas of comparative disadvantage if you ever want to get better. That is not an easy thing for any competitor to do, let alone somebody competing in a sport as physically and mentally taxing as combat sports, where underpayment is rife and Father Time + his quirky brother Uncle CTE will get you eventually. These constraints apply to double in the era of the UFC, wherein not being the guy who can sell them the most pays-per-view gets you thrown off the title path, and all the more so if you go up against their chosen boys - fighters like Condom Mc-IJustLostTheRubberMatch or Michael Chandler.
There are better and greater fighters than Dustin and Oli in the UFC right now - Yan, Volk, Usman, whatever. However, most of us will never be supernaturally prepared and stoic under fire like Volk, or as tireless and Borg-like in our adaptations to trauma as Yan. Nor will we be as fucking enormous, untiring and BIG and SQUARE - like Usman. Sometimes the best we can be is aware of our strengths and weaknesses, especially in areas we are not the best. To identify what we are good at and what gets our heads kicked in. To shine up the strengths and learn to minimise the weaknesses. Such development comes from a place of real maturity, growth and honesty - knowing ourselves. Such an endeavour takes discipline and attention to detail, a willingness to sacrifice our imagined needs and wants in the minutia of unsexy, boring, and plain difficult ways every day. This ideal - what I would call a process of self-improvement is achievable for anybody, from casual combat sports enthusiasts to worlds-level-but-currently-D1 wrestling prospects.
When I think of Dustin and Oli, I think of this. They are not the best fighters in MMA, but they have done more than almost anybody in MMA history to be the best fighters they can be, despite - or perhaps because of their flaws. It might not get either a long and distinguished rule of the title, but it got them this far - who could have expected that? And that message is fucking important, goddamnit. It remains a truth as relevant to readers struggling paycheck to paycheck as it is about to start an exciting new life and everyone in-between. This sport has enough reductive smooth-brains who are too busy running ass-backwards fits of childish nihilism in Twitter group chats about how this guy is not good or that guy sucks or let us all laugh at the girl who got face planted because her form sucks. We have enough of that, so just this once - let us find something worth celebrating, okay? We can all pursue continuous improvement - that process can make a surprising number of things possible.
That has got to be worth something. As consumers of MMA who get to support fighters with our wallets, we can make it worth something. It is a privilege to watch them fight, and I do not give a shit who wins.
Mateusz Fenrych: With the lineal(ish) champ retiring so abruptly, this fight is at least a pretty decent approximation of restoring some lineage to the 155lb title.
OK, the challenger has lost recently, but it was to the erstwhile retired champ, and the incumbent champ has a win streak going back nine fights.
It can obviously be argued that Oliveira’s win streak hasn’t always been over the UFCs greatest talents but ultimately, no win streak is possibly going to be chock full of murderers.
Well, unless you count Dustin Poirier’s last eight wins. He has had a loss (to Khabib) and a NC in that stretch, but otherwise Dustin has dusted basically wall-to-wall killers since 2017, and for Oliveira to beat him would be a MAJOR credibility boost to his championship reign.
Likewise, for Poirier to win against the UFC’s most prolific finisher would do nothing but enhance his already burnished reputation.
As for what exactly will happen in the fight proper; well, as so succinctly (and not so succinctly) put by my colleagues above, haven’t a fuckin scooby.
Actually, I do have a small inkling. I have an idea that Oliveira would like to take Poirier down, since Poirier has a history of iffy decisions on the ground, or to be more specific, on his way down to the ground, where he’s liable to jumping that infamous guillotine.
However, I think Chucky Olives will know bumrushing Poirier, a concussive puncher and willing in-close exchange artist, will likely result in a spinning head. Luckily for him, he probably has the longer range and the ability to use longer tools, such as a pretty effective leg kick, snap kick and spinning kick, to keep Poirier long and direct his movements around the cage, and a pretty devastating set of strikes from outside, especially once his opponent has begun to give ground.
The problem is, I don’t think Poirier will give much ground to a striking assault; he is one of the calmest fighters under fire currently active - a fact as Haxx alluded to, almost unthinkable five years ago - and Oliveira is not a prolific combination puncher.
Poirier on the other hand, is, and has been known to rock Holloway (Holloway, for fuck’s sake!) on the exit of in-close encounters, as well as just consistently landing on a very mobile opponent.
As previously noted, Oliveira is not particularly evasive, and I would be willing to bet that the first fighter to give ground will be Oliveira, and unless he’s ABSOLUTELY drilled into his mindset that the time to shoot for a takedown is when Poirier gets excited and starts shifting, he is fairly likely to get his clock cleaned by Poirier.
I can’t discount the idea that Olives, a rudely accurate striker himself, will hurt and finish Poirier. Poirier IS disgustingly durable of late, and Oliveira did what even Gaethje couldn’t and finished Mike Chandler, who showed himself to be capable of absorbing disturbing amounts of damage in his classic fight with The Highlight.
My shakily confident pick, though, will be a Poirier TKO Rnd 2
Ben Kohn: Well this fight has been covered quite extensively, so I’ll just point out the following things. We know Poirier’s best opportunity/probability of winning lies in him keeping the fight in pocket boxing exchanges and extending those exchanges, and I won’t be discussing that.
What I’m interested in is if Oliveira can get this fight to the ground. I think he knows he needs to pressure Poirier to the fence, and work to get that takedown early. Dustin himself acknowledged he doesn’t want to give his back, and will likely try and just ride out the time he’s on his back/be more cautious in trying to get up. This harkens to his self-awareness Haxx mentioned, as he knew what put him in trouble against Khabib. Him being aware of it doesn’t change the fact that he does it in every single fight he’s taken down. So he’ll either do what he always does, and have his back taken against one of the greatest submission artists in MMA history, or he employs a more conservative style and allows Oliveira time to work and control him for extended periods of time.
If he can’t stop Oliveira from getting the takedowns though, Dustin will be forced to do something to get the fight back to the feet. If he turns his back to Oliveira, I see him losing via submission round 1. I love Dustin, but he puts himself in bad spots against inferior grapplers too often, and if Dan Hooker is jumping on your back that easily, Oliveira is taking the neck home. If he tries to ride things out, we see that gameplan go out the window in round 3 is my guess. So for me, either Charles Oliveira via submission, round 1 or late round 3, early round 4 (rear naked choke if I’m going to be specific). If he can consistently stop the takedown, the most likely outcome after that is Dustin via KO, round 2 the latest.