Canelo vs Charlo and more: 30th September boxing preview
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Canelo Alvarez returns this weekend, and he headlines a pretty strong card. That’s not the only action though, as earlier on Saturday Jai Opetaia travels to London as he returns for the first time since his brutally tough victory over Mairis Briedis last year.
A note: the weekend also sees a fun heavyweight matchup between former cruiserweight puncher Murat Gassiev and near-upsetter of Tyson Fury, Otto Wallin. I won’t be previewing that, but it’s one to keep an eye on.
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo
super-middleweight
A lot has been made by some observers- including myself- of Canelo’s seeming regression over his last few fights. The Bivol fight was one thing, but the Golovkin and Ryder fights since then, while ending in victory, threw up some concerns, in particular the fact that he gassed badly in both fights despite entirely controlling the pace in the first half of each. As such, he looks more beatable than ever before.
All that said, context does need to be maintained. He won both fights, and in the Ryder fight in particular he looked by any normal standard perfectly good until he ran out of steam. There was a focus from analysts on his lack of head movement, but realistically that was only true in comparison to his previous flashy slips and rolls.
It’s true we didn’t see those, but in the first half of the fight, we still saw him shift and sway out of the way of most of Ryder’s work and counter the larger man repeatedly. It wasn’t till he gassed out that it really went away, and if anything this reduction in movement is probably a good start to how he should respond if he really is losing his stamina.
What will be interesting is how he handles his own punching- it was less inefficient against Ryder than Golovkin and Bivol, but it was still focusing on single and double loaded-up shots rather than the crisp, efficient combinations he’d previously been known for, and may be part of the reason why that gas tank failed despite not being pushed by his opponents. It’s possible we’ll see further adjustments there, but it’s hard to say at this juncture.
All of those are concerns for Canelo, but none of that means we should really expect Charlo to beat him. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t a dud fight, but Charlo is taking a big leap in both level and weight, and he has some particular weaknesses of his own that make him probably the wrong guy to truly threaten Canelo.
The main one of these: his timing is bad. This sounds like a harsh thing to say about a top-level boxer with a hell of a resume and a unified division, but once you see it it’s hard to unsee: Jermell Charlo almost never lands the first punch in an exchange, despite throwing the first punch pretty often. He needs his opponent to land before he can get to work, really at all. Even in his most recent fight, his excellent performance in his rematch against Brian Castaño, saw him frequently fall short with the counter combinations he was focusing on unless Castaño’s first shot landed.
That he’s continued to win, and that he’s been able to adjust and dominate both his rematches when he struggled in the first fight, speaks to focus, a deep skillset and a good boxing brain, and all of those are likely to see him competitive here. But a timing issue? Against Canelo? Even with that reduced head movement, landing the first shot on the Mexican star is not liable to be easy. He’ll be falling short, and he’ll be punished for it. He will at the very least have to overcome heavy early adversity if he wants to get anything from this fight.
Now, as to whether he can exploit that apparent stamina issue: possibly. He is a busy fighter, who’ll be at the very least throwing a busy jab at Canelo all night and moving in and out to keep him guessing. He isn’t a fighter with one set tactical style he relies on, so he’ll be able to vary up his approach while staying busy. He’s also taller than Canelo, despite jumping up two weights, so if he chooses to stay at distance Canelo may need to push the pace more than he’s comfortable with just to get close.
In that respect, there is some reason to be cheerful because pushing and pulling Canelo about with varied approaches at varied distances is a lot of how Bivol got the job done- but Bivol is a lot slicker than Charlo is, and some superb feel for timing was a notable feature of his performance in that fight. It’s questionable if Charlo can apply the details even if he can work with the same principle.
The alternative would be to push at Canelo from the start, take his medicine early on and hope to come out the other side and punish him as he slows. It’s a workable theory, but while he can pressure fight, has done in places, he isn’t someone who does so consistently by instinct, and the counters he’d be eating by doing so may well be too much. It’s an avenue open to him, but it’ll be difficult to apply it.
That’s the story of the fight, ultimately: there are lots of things Charlo can try, but questions about whether he has the fine-tuned polish he needs to apply them against someone like Canelo, even past his best. Expect a Canelo victory, probably by either early stoppage on a counterpunch or a decision, but it’ll be interesting to see what Charlo tries, and we can’t write him off entirely.
The rest of the card
A strong main card is co-headlined by a light-middleweight contest between rising star Jesus Alejandro Ramos Jr and experienced former contender Erickson Lubin. It’s a great crossroads fight- a big test for Ramos but also a chance to prove himself and vault into contendership at the top of the division just as Charlo vacates all the belts. For Lubin, it’s possibly a final opportunity to make his way back towards title challenges after his two previous losses against world-level opponents.
Skill-wise, it should come together nicely, as both are pretty action-heavy fighters. Lubin has the odd combination of a skillset most suited to inside fighting but a fragile chin that he’s well aware of, so he switches between being in close and trying to box at range- but is always busy. Ramos is a pressure fighter, and has a skilled and very powerful attack- but his defence can go awry sometimes, leaving him open. We should get fireworks.
Also on the main card is an interim welterweight title fight- ie a battle for contendership once we know what’s happening with Crawford and his belts- between Yordenis Ugas and Mario Barrios. That one could be interesting, though a lot depends on how much pressure Barrios can actually apply to Ugas. It isn’t really his usual game, being someone who prefers to raid forward briefly but then disengage and look to bait responses he can counter- but that style against Ugas would probably see him outpointed, so he might have to press more than he’s truly comfortable with to succeed.
The main card is rounded off by a middlweight prospect matchup between the unbeaten Elijah Garcia and Jose Armando Rezendiz. It’s a fun one to start off with. The prelims, meanwhile, will be available on youtube, and will feature among others Frank Sanchez, a Cuban heavyweight looking to position himself for any fallout once Usyk and Fury’s belts start to fall away, plus Oleksandr Gvozdyk, who’s fighting for the third time this year after a four year layoff. It’s still up in the air if he can be the fighter he was before his brutal beating by Artur Beterbiev, and this is a layup eight-rounder so it won’t answer that question, but it’s nice to see him back.
Jai Opetaia vs Jordan Thompson
Cruiserweight
Jai Opetaia burst out onto the international scene last year when he stepped up several levels in class to beat Mairis Briedis in probably the most brutal fight of last year. He won that fight despite having his jaw broken clean through on both sides- which naturally meant a long time out to heal.
This is his return, 15 months later, and this time it’s his opponent making a jump in levels. At 30 years old, Jordan Thompson is a latecomer to the top levels of the sport, but he looked very impressive in his last outing, against solid British-level fighter Luke Watkins. He’ll be looking to make that next step here.
In truth, it’s not an easy fight to read, simply because there’s so little evidence of how either man shows against really challenging opponents. Opetaia having proved himself against Briedis does give him the advantage in experience- but at the same time injuries like the ones he sustained and the time out he’s taken to heal could well count against him.
The likelihood does point towards Opetaia, with his rapid in-and-out footwork and the superbly timed one-two that gave Briedis so much trouble probably being too much for the relatively open and relatively footslow Thompson. That said, even in that performance he did display a tendency to get straight-lined, and with Thompson displaying some relentless bodywork and a fantastic, pin-point uppercut against Watkins, he could well find ways to push Opetaia to the ropes and make him uncomfortable.
The rest of the card
The rest of this card isn’t fantastic, if we’re honest. We will see Cheavon Clarke, another late-rising British cruiserweight, fighting former Thompson opponent Vasil Ducar- potentially aiming to maneuver himself into a shot at the winner of the main event. Also featuring is Ellie Scotney, defending her IBF super bantamweight title- but her opponent, Laura Soledad Griffa, is mostly a regional-level fighter from Argentina who’s lost every time she’s tried to come above that level, so this is most likely a showcase.
Beyond that, Rhiannon Dixon vs Katharina Thanderz for a lightweight European title could be quite well-matched- but aside from that, it’s mostly showcases for prospects.