Boxing Preview, February 5th
Photo by Huw Fairclough/Getty Images
Boxing’s been on its winter break for the last month or so, exacerbated by all British boxing in January being called off thanks to the pandemic, but after dipping our toes last week with Makabu vs. Mchunu, we’re back to a full schedule this week with three cards from both sides of the Atlantic and all corners of the world. Let’s take a look.
Liam Williams vs. Chris Eubank Jr.
The weekend opens with a British card headlined by two fighters who could not be more different in personality and style yet are quite similar in their level. There aren’t any titles on the line in this 160lbs clash, but it’s still something of a crossroads fight, with two fighters who have historically fallen short at world level meeting to decide most likely which one next gets another crack at stepping up.
A lot will depend on how Eubank chooses to fight. Historically, he’s been a high-volume attritional fighter reliant on his speed over real depth of skill to get home. In his last couple of fights, though, he’s been under the tutelage of Roy Jones Jr and has adopted a more outboxing style, picking and poking at his opponents in ones and twos for the most part. Despite winning both, he never really looked very convincing, with his footwork being a little hesitant and stilted and the fact that even when playing a range style he curtails a solid portion of that range by throwing mostly curved shots (he’s been reported to have elbow hyperextension issues in the past, and whether or not that is still the case it seems to have permanently affected his technique).
If he tries that approach here he might find Williams’ more fundamentally sound stylings overwhelming him. If he chooses, or is forced, to bite down on his gumshield and revert to volume though, we could be in for a barnburner — Williams wouldn’t step off in that scenario. And the younger man is certainly capable of cutting the ring against Eubank’s less than smooth movement, so that’s what we should probably be hoping for. Overall, Williams may end up winning on points simply because Eubank is likely to make the wrong decisions for at least a portion of the fight, giving Williams something of a head start on the cards.
The co-main event here sees women’s star and self-declared women’s GOAT Claressa Shields defend her middleweight collection against young Slovene Ema Kozin. This is another one of those where the lack of depth in women’s boxing may come into play — Kozin is no cherry pick, having won various alphabet-soup titles at super-middle and an interim version of the WBC belt on display here, but it’s simply hard to say that she’s had the kind of experience that might let her give Shields a challenge. Stylistically, she’s probably got the right moves to give it a try — she looks a decently tidy outboxer who’ll look to make Shields fall short in her bursts forward and then cover up with a decent high guard if she does get through; but so was Christina Hammer, and in that fight Shields had tightened up her tendency to bullrush and won by punching around Hammer’s jab until she disincentivised it almost entirely, then walked her down and broke down the high guard with some good combination work. There’s little to indicate that Kozin can play that game better than Hammer, so we could see a similar story in this one.
The rest of the card isn’t as deep, but does feature an English title clash between Samuel Antwi and Conah Walker, and Julius Indongo dropping back to an eight rounder in an attempt to recover from the horrible run of results he’s had since 2017.
Carlos Cuadras vs. Jessie Rodriguez
The Mexican veteran was meant to be fighting Srisaket Sor Rungvisai in this one, but the Thai had to pull out late with illness, so the prospect Rodriguez, who had been scheduled to fight at flyweight on the card, takes his opportunity to jump up a division and chase the title. It’ll be a tough fight for the rising star, who’s making a big jump both in class and weight (although he is theoretically only jumping one division on the night, ‘Bam’ has rarely weighed in above 110 and not since he started fighting serious opponents, and had last year been aiming to fight for a title at 108lbs before it fell through). He’s a good fighter, in many ways possibly already better than Cuadras at gameplanning and making useful adjustments, but the very lack of structure and consideration for what his opponent is doing that has tended to lose Cuadras fights at the very highest levels might end up being a boon against a less experienced opponent, particularly if Rodriguez finds he cannot hurt him easily. The younger man is good at drawing a reaction by pressing with his jab then stepping around that reaction with small angled movements and punishing in the time an opponent takes to follow the angle, but this strategy relies somewhat on the reaction being a response to what he’s doing an often in Cuadras’ case he simply throws whatever he was going to throw, regardless of what his opponent is doing. This does make him avoidable and counterable if an opponent has the skills for it, and it gets him in trouble since he struggles to respond to an opponent’s adjustments — and Rodriguez very well may be able to take advantage of that by just playing a slightly more patient game — but it makes him dangerous to predict, and with the weight jump he may not have to catch Rodriguez by surprise very often to make a difference. Without writing Rodriguez off at all, I can see Cuadras struggling early on before eventually imposing himself once Rodriguez’ movement gets a little less sharp as the fight goes on, and taking over late.
This card also sees a women’s world title fight, this time at Bantam with Jamie Mitchell looking to build off her upset win over Savannah Marshall and defend her title Carly Skelly. We also see a prospect clash at featherweight as the 22-year-old Raymond Ford faces off against the also-unbeaten Edward Vasquez. Ford probably has the higher of the ceiling of the two, with a nice line in sharp and varied combination once he gets an opponent cornered, but Vasquez looks like a decent mover on the outside so this will be a test of his ability to get those combinations home.
Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios
The final card to talk about sees us at 147, where Mario Barrios makes a bold move, responding to his defeat to Gervonta Davis last May by stepping up a division and taking on Keith Thurman, returning himself from a nearly three-year layoff after his own loss to Manny Pacquiao. It’s that gap that makes this a tough one to get a read on here — we have no indication what kind of state of mind Thurman is in, if he’s made any adjustments after that loss, or if he’ll be rusty. In theory, the levels Thurman has fought and won are a fair bit above where Barrios has, a decent accounting of himself in the first four rounds against Tank aside, but the Thurman we saw in his last few fights wasn’t someone showing the habits best-placed to force mistakes out of Barrios. The young Texan doesn’t respond well to pressure at all, and tends to fall apart on the back foot (he really struggled against Batyr Akhmedov there and even his loss against Davis involved knockdowns that came when Tank was able to make him move backwards), but Thurman has tended to default to going on the backfoot himself, so it may become a game of who’s reactions are sharper, as Thurman attempts to tag Barrios coming in while Barrios seeks to get the punches home first then step off before his lack of any serious defence gets exposed by counters.. That should end up in Thurman’s favour, given their relative levels of success so far, but with such a long layoff and Thurman already having a slight timing problem even before now, any rust could exacerbate such issues and give Barrios the chance to get some combinations home.
The chief support on this one consists of a spate of 10-rounders. Probably the most significant is also at 147, with Abel Ramos taking on Lucas Santamaria, mostly a decent regional level fighter but who gained himself some name momentum with a win over Devon Alexander last August. Beyond that, Leo Santa Cruz looks to reboot his career with a comeback fight against Keenan Cabrajal, and 154 prospect Jesus Ramos takes on Vladimir Hernandez.