Boxing Preview, February 26/27
Photo by Mikey Williams/Top Rank Inc via Getty Images
Another busy week, with two British cards- one on the Sunday- including probably the UK’s best boxer, as well as a solid card from America. Let’s dive in.
Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall
This defence of Taylor’s 140lbs belt collection is the fight of the week in terms of attention, but in truth it’s probably going to be quite one sided. Catterall is a good fighter, don’t get me wrong, but he’s never really proved himself above British/European level, counting a fairly narrow and very boring win over Ohara Davies as probably his best accomplishment. Since then, he’s fought a couple of ten and an eight rounder, all against fighters coming off a loss (the eight being a ludicrous choice of matchup against Nicaraguan journeyman Oscar Amador who boasted a 10-17 record at the time of that fight). So he hasn’t really been building up to the level of facing a unified divisional champion with a decent claim to be bordering the p4p top 10.
Stylistically, Catterall is a throwback, not to the old days, but to the times of a few years ago where almost every British fighter breaking towards world level followed, to some extent, a certain template- nice and tidy basics, especially the jab, good management of range, in-and-out movement, but perhaps a lack of lateral movement, of power, and of real adjustment in general as a fight goes on. If you’ve seen the likes of Anthony Crolla, the McDonnell brothers, Terry Flanagan, even Ricky Burns, you probably know what I mean. Catterall is perhaps a bit more willing to let an opponent come to him than some of these (which led to a truly awful contest with a similarly reticent Ohara Davies) but also a bit more static and certainly more prone to reaching with a jab rather than following it with light, controlled footwork. Either way he is unlikely to have the tools to stop Taylor from circling him basically at will, nor the power or infighting prowess to discourage him, and while Taylor may take his time to make sure he’s figured him out, it should be quite one-sided in the end.
The most significant fight on the rather light undercard features Robeisy Ramirez continuing his pro movement after his shock debut loss, but in all honesty, it’s a disappointing one. Eric Donovan has precisely one fight of significance on his record as a pro, when he lost to Zelfa Barrett in 2020. In most of his other fights, including both since then, he’s faced opponents with losing records, and at 36, he’s not really likely to be looking to world level himself. Ramirez should coast this. Past that, we have Nick Cambpell (a late-breaking 31-year-old heavyweight) taking his 5th fight as a pro for a Scottish area title against Jay McFarlane, plus a raft of prospects.
Chris Colbert vs Hector Luis Garcia
The deepest card of the weekend is headlined by a super-featherweight clash between Colbert and Garcia, in an eliminator for the WBA title at the weight (this seems to be a bit of a WBA oddity, since Colbert won an interim version of this title in his last fight but doesn’t appear to be holding it for this one). Both are unbeaten, though at 30 years old it would be hard to call the Dominican Garcia a prospect.
Stylistically, Garcia likes to press carefully but steadily behind a jab, for preference with his hands held fairly low and using timing and range management for safety. This could cause him trouble here, because Colbert- by nature an extremely flashy outfighter- carries a range advantage of about four inches and a lot of speed. Combine that with a very good jab of his own and it’s kind of hard to see where Garcia even gets going. Colbert can be made to look a little ragged if an opponent gets past his mid-range defences into the pocket- King Tug showed that in his last fight, despite a clear Colbert win- and he can also look short of ideas with an opponent patient enough to make him lead for an extended period (he’ll commit with fast combinations, but they lack the care and purpose of his counters), but it’s not clear Garcia is really capable of either, and the young American should have enough speed and enough imagination in his traps and setups to win comfortably.
The most interesting fight of the card and possibly the weekend is Gary Antuanne Russell, at 140lbs, making a big step up in competition against Victor Postol. GAR is indeed the younger brother of Gary Russell Jr (there’s five of them, four of them box, and all of them are named Gary A. Russell) — although it remains to be seen how he’ll handle the tempo of his professional career, do not make the mistake of thinking he’s anything at all like his brother in style. A very aggressive and, on early impression, hugely powerful pressure fighter, GAR is comfortable sitting clean the pocket, pushing forward with a jab then slipping and countering, and equally happy at very close range, rough-and-tumbling and generating power via movement and stance changes. It’s a mauling style that, especially when in closer, might seem lacking technique, but that is far from true. We’re yet to see what happens when he comes up against truly sustained resistance and counter-fire though, and that’s why this fight is interesting.
Postol lost wide and comfortable to both Terence Crawford and Josh Taylor, but those are elite talents and even they had to work for their wins. Beyond that, he’s a rough out for everyone, his only other loss being a close one last time out (but in 2020), to Jose Ramirez. He’s a well-rounded fighter, though what he likes to do most is control on the front foot behind his jab, intercepting as an opponent tries to respond by coming in to push him back. If an opponent steps off he can get a little wild in chasing them down, but that’s not super-likely to be what we see here (though, with such a step-up in class, we never know quite how GAR will react). The most likely scenario is Russell trying to slide and force his way past that jab and intercepting shots, and force Postol in the back foot.
One final note on this one, though, relevant today: Postol is Ukranian, and while he’s in the US for the fight, his family are home and caught up in a war. What that means for his focus on the night is impossible to say - you wouldn’t blame him for being distracted nor for being extra-determined to take home the win - but either way, thoughts have to be with him and them and it’s incredible that he’s still going ahead (at time of writing) with the fight in what must be horrendously difficult circumstances of uncertainty and fear.
The final fight of note on this card (which may come with second billing actually, it’s not entirely clear, but it’s the least interesting of the three despite being for a world title) is the latest step in Jerwin Ancajas’ long and grinding reign as the least interesting of the superfly title holders. Since winning the IBF belt against McJoe Arroyo in 2017, he’s had an array of options in the most exciting division in the sport, and instead he’s opted, time after time after time, to pluck overmatched opponents from down the levels, or aging former title challengers. He’s done so again here, this time stepping out against 30 year old Argentine Fernando Martinez, who is unbeaten at 13-0 but has only one twelve-rounder on his record and has fought mostly at domestic Argentine level, venturing out to South Africa and Dubai once each. From that South African fight with Athenkosi Dumezweni, he looks relentless, come-forward, and quite powerful, but crude, both in his attacks and his defence, which consists of holding his hands up and hoping for the best. Ancajas, who likes to counter a rushing opponent, shouldn’t have any trouble here.
Lawrence Okolie vs Michał Cieślak
The final card of the weekend, on the Sunday, takes us back to the UK, to London this time, and a headline act at cruiserweight where Okolie defends his cruiswerweight title against his Polish challenger. Okolie has taken a weird journey, from early hype to a series of mind-numbingly boring clinch-heavy wins as he rose through the British ranks that stalled that hype while simultaneously continuously advancing his position for bigger fights, to an emergence on the world scene, under new trainer Shane McGuigan, as a suddenly proficient and surprisingly smooth outboxer.
One thing that cannot be said about him so far is that he’s ducked a challenge, almost always taking the strongest opponent on the table, and that’s probably true again here: with the other cruiserweight champions looking at Canelo, heavyweight and each other, the 32-year old Cieślak was about the best option available. He has one loss, to Makabu in a creditable performance, and otherwise all wins — he’s not operated at a hugely high level beyond that and his win against an aging Durudola, but he has a decent box of tricks, a bait-and-counter style with some nice ideas, although a tendency to reach when the distance is wrong and to unravel as a fight runs longer. That first part could get him in trouble here, since despite being massive, he comes into the fight with a two-inch height and three-inch reach disadvantage against the remarkably long Okolie. If the champion applies the jab and movement he’s been learning from McGuigan here, he should win, probably reasonably comfortably, but he’ll have to be careful if he wants to exchange closer.
The other fight to look out for on this card is Jordan Gill, challenging at featherweight for Karim Guerfi’s European title. Guerfi was last seen on British shores getting blasted in one round by Lee McGregor a year ago for the same title (one he since won in another challenge against Andoni Gago in Spain, so he’s a road warrior). That fight might not be a true measure of his threat here, though, because while it is easy to say a fighter should be prepared for anything, that was the fight in which McGregor came out after some time off having switched his fight style entirely from flighty outboxer to determined pressure clinch-fighter, and Guerfi just hadn’t expected it.
Gill, a classy and smooth pocket-fighting counterpuncher who loves to play timing games and making his opponent fall into his punches, won’t offer the same sort of sheer physical threat, and this should become an interesting battle of timing, since Guerfi also likes to bait his opponent into exchanges in close and try to beat them to the punch. Gill should be the sharper, less prone to sloppiness, more technically correct fighter, and therefore should be favourite to win such a contest, but he is less experienced at higher levels, and while it’s likely that the story of his folding against Mario Tinoco was due to stomach trouble as he claimed, given later results, it’s yet to be fully confirmed. Gill saw his career stalled by that derailment being followed closely by Covid disruption, so he’ll be hoping to both win and put on a showcase of his skills to kickstart his career again going forward.
The rest of the card sees Anthony Fowler step up to middleweight against Łukasz Maciec, Fabio Wardley continue his unlikely pro heavyweight journey from the white-collar ranks against Daniel Marz, and Galal Yafai making his pro debut after his Olympic gold in Tokyo.