Boxing Preview, February 19th: featuring Kell Brook vs. Amir Khan.
Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images
The main event of the week is easily the… somewhat delayed UK grudge match between Kell Brook and Amir Khan, but there are a couple of other shows worth your attention, with Jorge Linares heading to Russia to face Zaur Abduallev in what is probably a last chance at getting a shot for glory, and Jaime Munguia facing off against D’Mitrius Ballard in Mexico. Mateusz and Taylor are joining Lukasz for this one, and as a note, there’s not a lot of depth to any of the main cards (though there are some prospects to look out for on Munguia’s card so we’ll be focusing on the main events only here.
Kell Brook vs. Amir Khan
Mateusz: I find myself worrying for Brook a lot more than I do Khan the more I think about it. This fight could get a bit sad in all honesty, in a variety of ways, but one of the saddest is a shot Brook not being able to find his rhythm and counters while Khan spams whatever speed he has left. But really, both fighters are at a point so far gone beyond the ideal point of their careers that it's almost impossible to tell where they're at. The marker for when they should have fought is miles behind them, but they’ve sailed past it like a buoy lost in a marine fog; a sentiment echoed by virtually every commentator worth (and not worth) their salt. An obvious point but a salient one too.
For a reference point; I'm beginning to worry for GGG a bit as well, to the point where a third fight with ginger bollocks isn't all that palatable to me but I at least have an idea where Golovkin is at and that he likely won't get broken.
However, out of Khan and Brook, while Khan is more obviously chinny - has been throughout his career - Brook has been more obviously mentally drained. Circling back to Golovkin, Brook’s effort against him was admirable and brave to a fault against someone evidently so much stronger and heftier than himself, but it marked a point where a pronounced physical decline began to set in. He got one eye socket crushed, and he didn’t especially help himself by taking on another absolute specimen in a title defence down at his own weight in Errol Spence, who crumbled the other eye socket too, in a fight in which Brook (totally understandably) wilted. Meanwhile, Khan has been starched and wobbled far more often, but it doesn’t seem to have taken a toll on him physically, even the slightly worrying clearing-out he received from Canelo.
If you’re noticing a distinct lack of technical analysis for this bout, it’s because I really don’t have much of a clue for where either man is right now. At their peaks, then; I would have picked Brook relatively confidently, probably by KO. He, at his best, had a happy knack for feeling a fight out, even under extreme pressure (his fight vs. Golovkin actually showed this in the first three or so rounds), able to find the gaps in an opponent’s rhythm and apply his own offence from there. This would work well against Khan, who almost certainly had the speed edge, but tended to be rather one-speed about his attack, and almost comically open to return fire when firing off himself. Perfect for Brook.
If there remains any of this Brook at the weekend, I would still favour him, but this is a huge if. If his timing and comfort under pressure is gone, Khan busies his way to a decision win.
Lukasz: Yeah, in their primes Brook would - or should - have been heavily favoured to win. It’s not even that he was necessarily a massively better boxer all-round - I think he was, but by a little bit - but his strengths of natural timing and accuracy would have lined up well for him against Khan’s leapy, straight-lined approaches and famously crackable chin. Now though? It’s hard to say. As Mateusz says, Brook has taken the rougher beatings in his time, not to mention he’s found the cut to 147 tough for probably more than 5 years now, and that’s not the sort of thing that gets easier as he gets older, so even with the catchweight at 149 he might find that rough. On the other hand, Khan has been out for longer - nearly three years! - and for all the flaws you could point to in the latter-day Ingle gym’s coaching (a strong argument could be made that they let Brook down badly throughout his career by letting him coast on his timing and never developing a deeper game) they are good at getting their fighters into shape, by hook or by crook.
So that’s what it’ll likely come down to - who wears their age better. You’d think Khan’s time out gives the advantage to Brook, but we’ve seen in recent weeks a few occasions where a long break hasn’t necessarily seemed to hurt a fighter. But then, Brook’s been out for a year too, that’s plenty…
What we do know is it shouldn’t be dull. Neither are defensive fighters - neither is capable of being, and unlikely to have changed that at this late stage. And they do appear to legitimately hate each other (in some very weird ways - the pre-fight press conferences have been quite something). A clash of personality always adds a bit of heft to a fight, so that’ll be fun.
What we ultimately have here is one of the biggest what-could-have-beens for a long time. This fight should have happened six years ago, at least. What we’re finally getting should be entertaining, if it’s not a blowout, and might be very sad, if it is, but that’s boxing I suppose- we don’t always got what we want when we want it.
Taylor: I’ve made the mistake of contributing last here, so I’ll probably find myself repeating what’s already been said. If this fight took place when it should have happened, I’d pick Brook with real confidence and think his superior timing would have trumped Khan’s speed. But this is boxing, so of course we’re finally seeing it years past its expiry date. Analysis feels pretty redundant for this one, and it ultimately comes down to who has more left in the tank. I was leaning towards Brook, but the fact that he’s having to boil down to 149lbs is giving me pause. I’m going to wait to see how Brook looks at the weigh-in, but I’m tentatively picking the Sheffield man to get the win inside 8 rounds. It could be quite difficult to watch though, and I hope both retire afterwards.
Jorge Linares vs. Zaur Abduallev
Lukasz: Speaking of flashy, aggressive fighters with great handspeed and combinations but a tendency to leap at their opponent in straight lines, Jorge Linares is another in the last chance saloon this weekend. If we were going to buy into boxing maths, he might feel quite good about himself, having gone 12 rounds with Devin Haney and had him hanging on at the end, when Abduallev was roundly humiliated by the same opponent and retired in four a few years ago. Boxing maths, however, is a bad tool for analysis, and especially with Jorge Linares, perhaps the most wildly inconsistent fighter of his generation.
Realistically, Abduallev is… well, he’s okay. He’s not very fast, and he’s not very powerful, and he mitigates this some by being fairly careful but over-relies on a static high guard that’s easy to split up the middle. Those things could get him in trouble against Linares and his ripping body shots, if he allows the veteran to get those going (and he’s not a fast starter, so he might be in trouble early). But if a fighter sticks it out and can take Linares’ shots - and despite his explosiveness he is not an enormous KO puncher- he can be thrown off his game, and Abduallev’s cagey movement and patient jab may well enable him to stick around enough to take over a bit later on… As I say, Linares is a very inconsistent fighter, both within fights and from opponent to opponent - not too many fighters can have a variance as wide as going life-and-death with Kevin Mitchell and giving Lomachenko one of the toughest challenges of his career. So it’s not even fair to say that this depends on how washed Linares is - he wasn’t washed when he warred against Mitchell. It’ll really depend on what mood Linares comes in - if it’s the guy focused on movement and pivots that showed against Lomachenko or Crolla in the second fight, he should win handily. If it’s the heedless warrior of some of his other losses or the fellow confused (despite a win) by Luke Campbell’s solid but simple lateral movement in their fight, he could find himself in trouble.
Mateusz: This could actually turn into an entertaining scrap, you know. Abduallev is obviously flustered by speed of fist and fleetness of foot (see his Devin Haney capitulation), and well, Linares has at least one of these attributes. And as Lukasz mentioned, Linares is sharp and when on form, his attacks flow absolutely beautifully, but he is not the hardest puncher, and he does not have the foot dexterity to dance around an opponent the way Haney managed; he tends to like to have his feet planted when throwing.
Meanwhile, Abduallev is no movement maestro himself; in fact, while not plodding, he is a hesitant mover it seems; he takes his cues to fire, fairly often, from knowing that his opponent has stopped throwing. Against Haney, he never seemed to try to reduce the speed disadvantage by taking initiative on the offence, as if the speed had startled him - Linares can absolutely capitalise on this.
However, he also isn’t a defensive maestro, and coupled with Abduallev’s wont to wait for offence to finish, this could turn into a little slugfest.
In general I would favour Linares’ ability to really drive a combo home, and at least SOME appreciation of how to move in and out of range to count favourably against Abduallev, but yeah; this is the third fighter on the card in whom it’s hard to place a measure of trust as to how he’ll perform on the night.
Taylor: Despite a late rally against Devin Haney, realistically Linares is all but done at the elite level. That being said, Abdullaev isn’t elite which makes this fight interesting, and as my colleagues alluded to you never really know what version of Linares you’re going to get although his best days are certainly behind him. From what I’ve seen of Abdullaev (which is admittedly a small sample size), he doesn’t have the style to impose his power or strength on Linares, and the Venezuelan won’t have to go looking for him too much either. Linares thrives when he’s handed the initiative, and looking at Abdullaev’s high-guard I think he’ll have plenty to work with. As Lukasz mentioned, the question is what happens if Abdullaev can extend him late. Gun to my head, I’m picking Linares if he’s got anything left but it could get hairy for him in the latter stages.
Jaime Munguía vs. D'Mitrius Ballard
Mateusz: Well, Munguia looked sharp, durable and well-conditioned in his intense, but ultimately rather one-sided beating of Gabriel Rosado. All qualities that, I suspect, will hand him a large advantage against Ballard, who looks to be a relatively lightweight puncher in comparison. Ballard is a better mover than Rosado, so that'll possibly a new test for Munguia, and the Mexican also has a tendency to lean out over his front foot perilously occasionally, though he often checks this tendency- whether Ballard can make hay from could be a key factor in his successes. In fact, Munguia is fairly defensively porous overall; although he clearly beat Rosado, Rosado scored some of the sweetest and cleanest strikes of their bout, just from Munguia hanging about in close and getting complacent. In this regard though I have a suspicion Ballard won't have the firepower to damage Jaime, who took Rosado's shots and came back undeterred.
Lukasz: Munguia is a fighter who’s made some big strides in the last few years. When he first came to notice after being rejected as an opponent for Gennadiy Golovkin, he was nowhere near ready (and that fight was rightly not sanctioned). Shortly after he did go on a title run at 154lbs, defeating Liam Smith and Takeshi Inoue along the way, but he still looked pretty crude and reliant to some extent on his size at the weight to get over the line. It may have been his welcome to 160lbs that gave him the kick up the backside he needed - although he was better than Spike O’Sullivan, as he should have been, the Irishman landed at least one hard counter almost every time Munguia threw, and you could see that he felt it. Since then, he’s started to work on that defence, both in simple acts of responsibility like keeping his hands up and avoiding squaring his feet so much, and in becoming a better attacker along the way by setting up his combinations behind a jab and with some feints.
That said, that’s scoring him on a scale- as Mateusz noted, he still is pretty defensively open and hittable. Whether Ballard is the man to exploit that is open to question - a committed defensive mover, the American has the odd tendency to hinder the effectiveness of his own attacks by disengaging while throwing them. That limits his power when they do land but way too often he’s just making himself miss entirely. Munguia isn’t particularly fast-footed, so he probably will fall short chasing a defensively minded opponent here, but he probably won’t find Ballard’s counter-offence very threatening. We could be in for a slightly slow fight here, with Munguia lumbering around after Ballard, but I’d expect the young Mexican to get through in the end, just by dint of throwing a lot more volume.