Boxing Preview: 15th of October
Photo by Mikey Williams/Top Rank Inc via Getty Images
An absolutely ridiculous stack of fights this weekend, as the already-planned return of Deontay Wilder and the rematch between Devin Haney and George Kambosos is joined by the unification grudge match between Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall, delayed from its original date by the death of the Queen. It’s a lot, so let’s get into it.
Claressa Shields vs Savannah Marshall
The main event here, a women’s middleweight undisputed unification, is as mentioned a genuine grudge match. These two really don’t like each other. That stems from a fight back in their amateur days, in which Marshall delivered the only loss on Shields’ amateur record. Since then, the American has had far more success, winning multiple Olympic and world championship golds, before turning pro and winning multiple titles at three weights very quickly. Marshall has a world championship gold herself, but can’t otherwise match the resume, and that is true in the professional ranks as well, where she has one world title, that she brings into this fight. That loss has clearly never ceased to rankle with Shields, though, and Marshall has used it in combination with a growing reputation for power punching - that Shields can’t match- to spark a rivalry and create a very high profile match here, a women’s title fight to rival Taylor vs Serrano earlier in the year.
The in-ring action should live up to the personality clash. Both fighters like to come forward and engage. Shields has polished her style as her pro game has developed, going from a crowding, flurrying fighter to a more patient approach where she’ll edge towards her opponent until they lose patience and make a move, at which point she’ll try to beat them to it and catch them out of shape with her jab and follow-up combinations. She is also happy to go entirely on the back foot and play the counterfighter, though it isn’t her first choice.
Marshall, on the other hand, is very much a front-foot fighter nowadays, and will therefore be wanting to establish that from the go. It’s a different sort of pressure, less about volume and crowding and more about using sneakily good footwork and feints to get home single shots and short combinations. The fact that she comes with her hands very low means Shields will have a target to aim for upstairs, but also that her own shots are harder to read. Add to that her facility with stance switches in the midst of the action, and she’s a hard opponent to read.
Because she can fight both on the front foot and back, Shields has more ways to win this and therefore reasons to be optimistic, but if she can’t push her opponent back she may not have the power to punish her with the counters, so it’s probably in her best interests to keep Marshall moving backwards if she can. If she does, she should win- if not, we’re in for an interesting night.
The co-main is another unification, at women’s super-feather, for three belts this time (well, technically four, but no-one cares about the IBO). Alycia Baumgardner won her WBC belt in an upset win over Terri Harper last year- and with Harper’s move up in weight taking the rematch off the table, she’s moving to unify instead. If anything, that’s a step up in opposition, with fellow American Mikaela Mayer holding two belts and having been established at this weight for a while. They don’t have the personal history of the two women in the main event, but they have been getting at each other quite effectively in the buildup, so there’s some spice there too.
In terms of style, Mayer’s main weapon is a very good jab, a punch which can slice up an opponent pretty effectively on its own (Jennifer Han had real trouble with it), and behind which she can stalk and press her opponent. She does need to make it work, though, because while her power shots can be accurate and crafty, she does sometimes seem to have a tendency to get a little wide with them- and more importantly, once past jabbing range, she doesn’t have much of a second layer of defence. This could be a problem against Baumgardner, whose head movement and general craft in the pocket look stronger. That’ll likely be the battle then- if Mayer can keep it at distance- while pushing forward, which is what she does- she’ll probably win, but if Baumgardner can consistently push in closer she’ll probably have a lot of openings for unanswered shots. Look out for her to try to lean Mayer onto some uppercuts, and if she can do that kind of thing repeatedly, she’s got a solid shout for a win here.
The biggest name on this all-women’s card is Caroline Dubois, sister of heavyweight Daniel. She’s in a fight she’s expected to win, as are all the other prospects on the card, but she’s one to look out for and, with the way women’s divisions still are at the moment, will probably be seeing if she can hack it at the top quite soon.
Deontay Wilder vs Robert Helenius
Wilder is showing his mettle here- while not one of the top heavyweights, his choice of return opponent is by no means a walkover. Helenius has been around for a while, and fallen short a few times against fighters Wilder would normally expect to beat- but he’s tough, he punches well, and he’s on something of a roll having just twice beaten Adam Kownacki, who’d had designs on title shots himself until then. It’s a slow roll, admittedly, the fights being a year apart and the most recent a year ago, but if Wilder shows any impact from his two horrible beatings by Tyson Fury, he’s capable of exploiting them.
That is made less likely by the fact that Wilder’s biggest weakness is opponents pushing him back, whereas Helenius tends to stand off a bit in between jabs. He’ll step in if Wilder gets wobbly, but he probably won’t be seeking to consistently take his initiative away in the way that most safely keeps his right hand out of play, and because he has his hands quite low he’ll be vulnerable to that right when it comes. So Wilder should win- but it could be entertaining, and isn’t a foregone conclusion.
The chief support here comes in the shape of something of a crossroads match at super-middlweight- Caleb Plant seeks to recuperate after his loss to Canelo last year, whereas Anthony Dirrell is looking to angle for what would realistically be his final shot at the belts in this division. He did fight in an eliminator for the WBC belt last year, but his bout with Kyrone Davis ended in a split draw that brought neither closer to the title, so here he goes again. Realistically though, this is going to be hard for him. Plant has holes in his game that a peak Dirrell might have been able to find, but peak Dirrell was a good five years ago. He’s very, very past his best now, and his still-decent jab is almost certainly not going to be enough to here. Expect Plant to slip and shoulder-roll his way past it, and trouble Dirrell with shots to the body to counter it.
Other than that, the card features a re-run of Gary Antonio Russell vs Emmanuel Rodriguez at bantamweight, a match re-booked after their first meeting ended in the first round on an accidental clash of heads. Russell is probably the least celebrated of the Gary Russell boxing clan, but he’s got a chance to push his way into bantamweight contention with a win against Rodriguez. Frank Sanchez takes another step in his heavyweight campaign, and Vito Mielnicki, a promising junior middleweight, also features.
Devin Haney vs George Kambosos Jr
The last card of the weekend- actually running concurrently to the Wilder card, despite being in Australia- is the lightweight rematch between Haney and Kambosos, for all the belts since Haney unified them last time. Let’s be honest here though- this is almost certainly going to be another one of those fights where Kambosos simply hasn’t left himself enough time to properly bed any improvements into his game, even if he’s seen and made the right adjustments. Haney was very, very superior in their first one, and Kambosos would have to radically overhaul what he’s capable of doing to stand a chance. It’s not impossible, but the odds are in favour of a jab-heavy Haney victory.
The rest of the card features the Moloney brothers, Jason and Andrew, against Nawaphon Sor Rungvisai (no relation to Srisaket, Sor Rungvisai being a ring sobriquet) and Norbelto Jimenez respectively. We’ll also see another women’s world title, this one at super-bantam between Cherneka Johnson and Susie Ramadan.