Andre Fili vs. Bryce Mitchell: Can Thug Nasty get Touchy with Fili?
Photo credit: Amber Searls, USA TODAY Sports
It’s 2020 in the year of our lord, and Andre Fili is now a 15 fight UFC veteran an 11-year pro.
Now just four months removed from his 30th birthday, the former Team Alpha Male hot prospect made his UFC debut in 2013, defeating Jeremy Larsen by TKO on two weeks notice, despite missing weight. Since then, the Washington native has had a rocky, up and down career, alternating wins and losses for most of it, and never getting more than two wins in a row.
Despite this, he’s steadily improved as a fighter, noticeably so in the last few years, becoming a capable and calm fighter, one who will pose a stiff test against anyone not ready for their next step up in the division.
Enter Bryce Mitchell, the up and coming dynamic Featherweight grappler looking to win his fifth fight in a row, and remain undefeated in the UFC. Mitchell’s last two performances in particular have had fans buzzing about the Searcy Arkansas native, and considering neither of these men tend to be in boring fights, this is one the fans surely can look forward to.
The matchup itself is extremely intriguing as well. Fili has molded into a long range, volume kickboxer with the ability to mix it up and take things to the ground effectively as well. To clarify, hen I say volume kickboxer, that is not to say that Fili can’t or won’t crack, because he most certainly can. His check left hook and counter-kicking game in particular stand out to me as highly effective tools he’s added to his arsenal. Mitchell on the other hand is an aggressive top control grappler with his own set of long range striking tools to work with, a crafty clinch game, and solid reactive takedowns.
In addition it is worth noting that, while he historically has solid takedown defense, none of his opponents have attempted a takedown on him since his split decision loss to Michael Johnson. Meanwhile, Mitchell has not spent more than a few minutes on the feet since his back and forth FOTN performance against Bobby Moffett. His grappling has more than just carried him in past two fights, it’s essentially all he’s done, landing just 1 significant strike on the feet in his last two fights, out of four strikes thrown. So, based on what we do know of both of these men, let’s discuss how this fight potentially plays out.
Andre’s strength’s these days lie in his length, kicks, opportunistic takedowns and grappling. He has an active one-two, prefers to pressure his opponents, forcing them to circle to his right, which opens them up to his rear kick to the body and head. His opponents often block these kicks, but he uses them to damage the blocking arms, or in certain cases hurt his opponents badly. In his fight with Sheymon Moraes, we witnessed Andre’s increasingly potent counter-kicking game rock Moraes badly, ultimately leading to Fili finishing Brazilian by KO for the first time in his career.
Moraes, having had some success kicking with Fili throughout the round, throws a powerful switch kick to Fili’s body. Fili is able to block the kick using his left elbow, loading his weight over his right hip at the same time. Fili throws the right hand to obscure the view of Moraes and throwing the high kick behind it, landing as Moraes attempts to lean/slip to his left, rocking the Brazilian and forcing him to stumble backwards.
Now, the sequence we just watched….it’s cool, no other way to describe it. But what makes it all the more impressive is that it wasn’t just a chance kick landing, Fili had been making the read that Moraes consistently would slip and lean left to avoid incoming strikes. With that knowledge stored, Fili was able to correctly predict that flinging the right hand out would elicit that response, with the result being Moraes leaning directly into the head kick, with the finish coming not long after.
We see almost the exact same exchange happen in his fight with Charles Jourdain as well. Jourdain throws a naked kick to the body of Fili, who blocks it and fires off a head kick immediately. Jourdain is able to block it, but the force clearly impacted him as well. Noticed how Fili is also pressuring him and forcing Jourdin to circle out toward Fili’s power side as well.
This is what makes Fili dangerous on the feet. He is far from perfect for sure, particularly defensively (getting hit nearly half the time his opponent throws something is not a good thing), but offensively, he is very capable at building on the information he gathers, allowing him to get better as the fight goes on in most instances. A perfect example of this was his switching to southpaw in the 3rd round of his fight with a slowing Sodiq Yusuff and effectively landing his straight left consistently, wining him the round. He also is, as mentioned, a capable offensive wrestler as well.
Fili shoots a reactive double under the double jab of Yusuff as he tries pressuring Fili back to the cage. Fili was able to land these reactive shots multiple times against Yusuff in the first round as well.
All that being said, we should discuss some of his issues on the feet, specifically his defensive liabilities. While Fili uses his length well on offense, his defense is often non-existent. He rarely moves his head, and relies on being longer than his opponent to avoid a lot of the incoming shots. Sodiq Yusuff was able to essentially jab Fili at will, and Jourdain was able to take advantage of Fili’s tendency to leave his chin straight up when throwing punches in the pocket/exchanges and drop him. Unfortunately, it’s been a problem consistently for Fili that we’ve yet to see him work out, and while he’s grown tremendously, he still exhibits these issues.
The very first exchange in the beginning of the Yusuff fight shows many of Fili’s defensive issues. His head is bolted on the center, both while defending and trying to counter, and as a pocket exchange is initiated, Fili begins to wing hooks, chin bolt upright, to try and scare Yusuff off.
Fili getting dropped with a left hand as he tries to throw a same-time counter. The difference is that Jourdain’s head was not static, slipping and leaning his weight over his right leg as he throws his left. Fili on the other hand is caught upright, chin in the air, and caught square.
Some more to watch from the Yusuff fight, and it’s not a specific sequence but rather an extended one. Yusuff is an excellent athlete and a capable grappler, but Mitchell is a far more aggressive and dangerous submission grappler than Yusuff is. Fili really was not displaying enough urgency off his back, as Yusuff was able to seemingly control Fili pretty easily for much of their grappling exchange. Fili' was too willing to just stay flat on his back in half guard and side control, and knee on belly. He ate a fair few shots for his relative passivity off his back, and while Yusuff was clearly not a submission threat, Mitchell is. Fili allowing someone like Mitchell to pass and control him like that will not be a good time for him.
For Mitchell , taking advantage of those stand your ground moments will be extremely important in setting up his takedowns. Mitchell generally strikes from long range, mixing up his targets, and using his own length and reach to pick away at his opponents from the outside. A major difference in both of these men on the feet is their general difference in targeting, with Fili mostly hunting for the head. Mitchell will kick the legs, throw long straights and front kicks to the body, and will do his best to maintain range overall when standing with his opponents.
This sequence really shows a lot of what Mitchell is best at doing. The attempted clinch entry as Moffett attempts to close distance and land strikes, forcing Moffett to step back. The consistent feinting, throwing the long straight to the body as well as the high kick, all of which make it difficult for Moffett to react to the perfect straight left that drops him.
What impresses me with Mitchell is his notable improvement on the timing of his takedowns, and he does a good job of entering into the clinch during striking exchanges to either diffuse forward pressure or work to get the fight to the ground. In his most recent fight however, his takedowns were initiated off the kicks of Charles Rosa, something to note as Fili throws a fair amount of kicks in his fights. This is going to be a key factor, as Fili is far more comfortable fighting when he’s coming forward, and Mitchell is more than willing (in prior fights) to take a step back to draw his opponent into these exchanges to initiate the clinch or shoot on the hips. Mitchell will need to time his entries to either catch Fili’s kicks, or grab a reactive single leg as Fili is pressuring, he will be able to get the fight to his preferred area.
As Sayles pressures forward, Mitchell feints as if to strike, drawing out a jab and catching Sayles completely off-guard as he snatches the single leg and drives him to the mat.
Mitchell scoops up the, admittedly slow, leg kick from Rosa and uses it to drive him to the mat up against the cage.
Of course, we do have to discuss Mitchell’s issues as well. While there may have been little to critique him on in his prior two fights, his Moffett fight showed some tendencies that specifically will trouble him in his fight with Fili.
Now, I’m no Ryan Wagner, but I can see some serious issues arising for Mitchell if he tries to back away and circle out like that. Fili is going to be lacing him with kicks to the body and head, and Mitchell needs to be scouting that for this fight. Fili thrives when he’s able to employ his freakishly long legs as his opponents try and circle away. Mitchell's relative inexperience on the feet is also showing in his defensive reactions to the punches Moffett is throwing. Despite showing he can be calm and collected off the back foot, when he’s in full retreat, Mitchell is rather twitchy, somewhat gunshy, and often will throw aimless strikes to try and regain some semblance of control.
This fight is an excellent example of what good matchmaking looks like. Both men have skills and tools that can, and have, troubled the other in the past. Fili can be controlled on the ground and will throw up submissions to create a scramble to get up, something that would benefit Mitchell greatly when the fight hits the mat since Mitchell thrives on getting opportunistic control and submission. He’s also exhibited excellent pressure, control, and transitions, flowing from positions that consistently put his opponent at risk and making them defend them non-stop. On the feet, Mitchell often can push too hard, tiring himself somewhat, and Fili is a fighter who really does build on his prior successes in the fight, getting stronger as the fight goes on. With his strong initial takedown defense layers, Mitchell may struggle to simply get takedowns early forcing him to exchange for extended periods of time.
For Fili, the gameplan will need to be based on the following things, based on my observations of both these men.
Steady pressure and volume, force Mitchell to fight off the back foot consistently, under a steady stream of strikes. Forcing Mitchell to continuously retreat and circle will help to blunt the initial rush Mitchell usually employ. This will also allow him to catch Mitchell with kicks as he circles out away from the cage. The use of takedowns to break the rhythm should be utilized, but at the end of the rounds so as to avoid extended potential grappling sequences with Mitchell. Avoiding naked kicks, especially to the legs is also important is it won’t give Mitchell any chance of catching them to snatch a takedown. It’s extremely important for Fili to avoid static pocket exchanges, minimize Mitchell’s chances to initiate the clinch or catch him. It’s not necessarily Mitchell’s best area, so Fili likely will have an edge there, but it should be avoided if possible. Finally, should Fili get taken down, either shut down all movement if possible and stall out, or create space to stand up. Scrambling would be quite risky, especially in open space. Working with the cage to stand will need to be done carefully to avoid back takes.
For Mitchell, of course a lot of this would need to be the opposite of many of these things. Ideally, he will be able to either keep this fight in the center of the cage, or Fili working off the backfoot himself. Using those long range strikes, an active jab, level changes, and feints to keep Fili guessing will allow Mitchell to find openings to shoot or land good strikes. Because Fili is not especially sound defensively, Mitchell should be able to find openings to land good shots. Considering Fili will usually want to “get it back” this should be utilized to force pocket exchanges, or to make Fili stand his ground, and use those opportunities to shoot. Mitchell has also gassed himself in longer clinch exchanges, wearing himself down more than his opponent, trying to get the takedown. He should avoid these, and Fili is quite adept at defending takedowns against the cage, keeping a wide base, fighting for wrists control and underhooks while looking to circle off, and breaking grips urgently when they are made. Mitchell’s ground game speaks for itself (I linked an extensive breakdown of Mitchell’s grappling prowess that I wrote not long ago, please check it out!) and it’s unlikely we see Fili being able to go toe-to-toe in that area for extended periods, despite his training camp including Gary Tonon.
So there you have it, I’m not fussed to make a prediction here, though I will say I see this potentially going to a split, with Mitchell winning early, but forced to expend too much energy and fading late, allowing Fili to take over. Either way, this fight is going to be absolutely amazing, and the winner will have a lot of shine coming off them going forward. Let me know what you think of my breakdown of these two Featherweight contenders, and how you see this fight going, I would love to read your thoughts. Thank you for reading, hope you enjoyed, and enjoy the fights!