ADCC 2019 Men’s Preview
Photo courtesy of Hywel Teague / FloGrappling
With the tournament only a week away, the athletes are set to compete for one of the two most prestigious titles in BJJ today. An ADCC world title means you're undisputedly among the best in the world in NoGi submission grappling and MMA fans would recognize many of its holders. Jacare Souza, Demian Maia, and Fabricio Werdum, to name a few of them.
In this article, I will break down the major players in each division as I see it based on their experience, style, record, and strength of opposition.
But first, it's important to note what the rules are, as they differ from IBJJF in significant ways.
Match Time - 10 minute rounds, 5 minute overtimes if there's no winner, max of 2 overtimes. Finals are 20 minutes, 10 minute overtimes if there's no winner, max of 2 overtimes.
Point System - In ADCC, there are no positive points scored in the first half of the match, this is an advantage for those who prefer submission hunting over a control/point based style as it allows them to attack more freely without worrying about losing on points.
Negative points are scored for pulling guard or dropping down for 3 seconds or more, disengaging from their opponents to avoid them, or after 2 warnings of passivity from the referee. This is an advantage for those who prefer submission hunting over a control/point based style as it allows them to attack without worrying about the points, at least at first.
Positive points are as follows:
Passing Guard - 3 points
Knee on Belly - 2 points
Mount - 2 points
Back Mount w/Hooks - 3 points
Takedown (into guard or half-guard) - 2 points
Takedown (passed the guard) - 4 points
Sweeps (into guard or half-guard) 2 points
Sweeps (passed the guard) - 4 points
Legal/Illegal techniques - Almost all things are legal in ADCC, with the exceptions of crank submissions (such as a twister) and slamming an opponent to specifically break the guard, though slams are legal to get out of submissions. Other than that, it's the same as MMA for the most part (no biting, eye gouging, etc.).
And now, we move on to discussing the big names and potential winners of their respective divisions.
66 Kg (145.5lbs)
Paulo Miyao:
Record - 195 wins, 20 losses
World Titles - IBJJF World Champ 2015, 2019 (closed out with his brother, Joao), IBJJF NoGi World Champ 2015.
Paolo is one half of the pair of brothers that have mostly run rampant among the lighter weight classes. Despite testing positive for PED's and having one of his IBJJF titles stripped, Miyao has come back without missing a beat and closed out the light featherweight division with his brother. He has had a stellar 2019, currently sitting pretty at 29-1 for the year.
Miyao took 3rd place in 2017 ADCC, and considering Cobrinha and AJ Agazarm are not competing in this year’s tournament, Miyao has to be considered among the favorites to win. Miyao's Berimbolo and back take game, strong passing, and wealth of experience make him an absolute force here.
That being said, Miyao also holds victories over many other members of the field, including Augusto Mendes (2-0), Pablo Mantovani (4-0), Gianni Grippo (4-2, although he's lost his most recent 2 matches to Grippo), Geo Martinez (2-0), Nicky Ryan, (1-0), Bruno Frazatto (2-0), and Matheus Gabriel (1-0). Considering only one man of this list has beaten him, and the lack of experience multiple members of the field have, Miyao is likely the betting favorite.
Augusto Mendes:
Record - 63 wins, 30 losses
World Titles - IBJJF World Champ 2013. IBJJF NoGi World Champ 2012, 2015.
While Mendes is clearly at the tail end of his career, at 36 years old he's still got the potential to win this tournament. Many MMA fans may remember him for his UFC stint at bantamweight, but make no mistake about it, with the right matchups, we are likely to see Mendes on the podium.
While he's been relatively inactive in 2019, he has made sure to remind the BJJ world he's nowhere near done. While Paolo Miyao seems to have his number, Mendes has multiple wins over Grippo, and a draw too, as well as a win over Joao Miyao on his recent resume.
His pressure based top game, solid takedowns, and insane takedown defense are well tailored to the rules of ADCC, as his 3rd place 2015 finish has shown. While his record against his fellow competitors in this field is not the greatest, with the right matchups, I expect seeing him podium is not an unlikely scenario. And if it ends up with him vs. Grippo in the finals, we may see Mendes take the title too.
Gianni Grippo:
Record - 158 wins, 47 losses
World Titles - IBJJF NoGi World Champ 2018.
It gives me great pleasure to speak about Gianni being a real player in the tournament. His size and strength will be a big aspect for him, considering he generally competes at a higher weight (his NoGi World's win was at 73 Kg). Gianni's success is something that was seen as inevitable in the BJJ community, and he has shown that faith is well placed.
Gianni does not have the most stellar of takedown games, which can of course hurt him in this ruleset, but much like Miyao, his berimbolo/back take game and his leg drag passing is just absurd. I can personally attest to that for what it's worth.
While Gianni has lost to Miyao more often than not, his last 2 victories over him show that he has made adjustments that allowed him to finally get those wins, most importantly the last being his victory over Miyao at Kasai Pro 4. Between his size, experience, and the adjustments he's seemed to have made to combat his biggest nemesis in Paulo, we may very well see Gianni score the biggest win of his career.
77 Kg (169.5 lbs)
JT Torres:
Record - 82 wins, 28 losses
World Titles - ADCC Champion 2017. IBJJF NoGi World Champion 2013.
The returning champion, Torres is one of the most well-rounded competitors at his weight in BJJ today. The Atos representative has not competed much compared to some other competitors at ADCC since his 2017 win, but he has won 13 of his 15 matches over 2018/2019. His takedowns and takedown defense are both superb, his top game is aggressive, powerful, and his transitions from passing, to back takes, back to passing are lightning quick as well. He really doesn't suffer from any holes in his game, and that's what makes him so dangerous.
With wins over his fellow competitors in Lachlan Giles (3-0), Vagner Rocha (1-0), Celso Vinicius (2-0), and, his biggest rival and threat, Lucas Lepri (3-5). While he may be down in terms of overall record vs. Lepri, he won the big one in the 2017 ADCC finals.
As the returning champion and with his record against his opposition, it would be a huge deal if Torres did not make it to the podium at least. And to be honest, barring any surprises, Torres and Lepri are the prime candidates to take that gold.
Lucas Lepri:
Record - 110 wins, 28 losses.
World Titles - IBJJF World Champion 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. IBJJF NoGi World Champion 2009, 2010, 2011.
The legendary Lepri is looking to earn the final prize, an ADCC gold medal. In the past two attempts, he has come just shy, taking 2nd place to Torres in 2017 and current UFC fighter and 2015 ADCC winner Davi Ramos. One of the top BJJ practitioners in his weight class of all time, winning at ADCC would cement his legacy even further, pushing him closer to GOAT status.
Much like Torres, Lepri's skillset is incredibly well rounded, with a proficient takedown game, smooth and quick back takes, excellent sweeps off his backs, and a dangerous single leg attack from a seated guard. His loss to Torres in 2017 was incredible and there's no reason to assume he cannot beat him this time around. And considering his record of 17-2 since that loss to Torres, Lepri seems primed and ready to take the gold this time.
Honorable Mention: Vagner Rocha - While his skills are undeniable, Rocha has never really been able to get over the hump of beating guys like Lepri and Torres, and it's unlikely we will see it here. While he took third in 2017, barring some upsets, Rocha taking third is likely the most one could expect.
Also, shout out to my friend and fellow Marcelo Garcia gym member Jonathan Satava. While he's been busy doing a few things, like becoming a dad, opening a new school, and having the best hair in BJJ, Satava's game is eerily reminiscent of Marcelo's. He is a danger to any man he faces on the mats and while there is speculation to how he will look considering his inactivity, sleeping on Satava is a bad idea, because he'll take your neck home if you do.
88 Kg (194 lbs)
Josh Hinger:
Record - 106 wins, 33 losses
World Titles - IBJJF NoGi World Champion 2016, 2017, 2018.
Undoubtedly one of the best NoGi grapplers around today at his weight class, Hinger, despite his rather advanced competitive age of 37, is still an absolute force. Submitting a whopping 74 of his 106 opponents, with nearly 50 of them coming by way of various chokes. His favorite and most successful one being his patented guillotine, and you damn sure want to avoid getting caught by Josh in one.
One thing to note is that the podium is wide open as we will have 3 new men on that podium with Gordon Ryan moving up a weight class whilst Keenan Cornelius and Alexandre Riberio are not competing at the event.
Hinger has been on fire since 2018 began, overall 20-6, with 3 of those losses coming in his first 4 matches of 2018. His record against the field is promising for his chances as well. He has victories over Matheus Diniz (2-1), Alec Baulding (1-0), Gabriel Almeida (2-0), and Jon Blank (1-0). He does have losses he has yet to avenge against Murilo Santana (0-1) and Gabriel Arges (0-1). That being said, with his combination of wrestling and dangerous game from the front headlock, Hinger on that podium is a solid bet.
Matheus Diniz:
Record - 69 wins, 26 losses
Marcelo Garcia representing again, the 26 year old black belt has shown that he can beat virtually anyone on any given day. While he has not yet won a major world championship, Matheus has shown his elite level BJJ off multiple times, including a draw against Vinny Magalhaes while still a brown belt whilst giving up significant size, and wins over Murillo Santana, Gilbert Burns, Garry Tonon, Craig Jones, and Josh Hinger.
Matheus is defined by his ridiculous levels of aggression, heart, and constant attacking style. His takedowns, passing, and strength are all stellar aspects of his game, and he is a threat that cannot be looked over, despite his lack of world championship accomplishments on his resume to date.
If nothing else, Matheus will absolutely make a fight of it with whoever he is up against and will absolutely be one to watch.
Craig Jones:
Record - 34 wins, 13 losses
Jones made a massive splash in the BJJ world with his performances in the 2017 ADCC tournament, submitting Murilo Santana, Leandro Lo and Chael Sonnen, before losing to eventual 2nd and 3rd place finishers in Keenan and Ribeiro as well as Gordon Ryan. Since then, Jones has scored victories over Jake Shields, Rousimar Palhares, and Anthony Johnson(just for you MMA nerds), Matheus Diniz, Keenan Cornelius, Gabriel Arges, Tim Spriggs, and Jackson Souza.
Jones is a finisher, plain and simple. He's won 28 of his 34 via submission, with 19 of his 28 sub wins coming from a leg oriented finish, most them via heel hook.
While Jones lacks the consistency to make him the clear favorite, he is someone I think will sub his way to at least a third place finish this year.
99 Kg (218 lbs)
Gordon Ryan:
Record - 66 wins, 5 losses
World Titles - IBJJF NoGi World Championship 2018 (weight and absolute). ADCC 2017 Champion.
Another returning champion is back in action, although he's decided to try his hand a weight class up. That is likely not really an issue considering he took second in the 2017 absolute division. Ryan has been the most successful member of the Danaher Death Squad and his list of notable victories are well past impressive. Despite being only 24 years old, he's defeated the likes of Yuri Simoes, Rustam Chsiev, Keenan Cornelius, Vagner Rocha, Lucas Barboza, Roberto Abreu, Craig Jones, Jackson Souza, and Josh Barnett. There's more but I think you get the picture, Gordon Ryan is ridiculously good at Jiu Jitsu.
As a DDS member, Ryan's heel hook/leg attack game is second to none, but he's far from a one-trick pony. Proficient in his takedown and takedown defense game, his overall game is extremely deep. Finishing 53 of his wins via submission, with a huge variety among them, Ryan's combination of using the triangle, heel hooks, and back takes give him a plethora of options to work with. Competitors have been cowed after just a few minutes trying to work past his legs, and while Ryan is a known commodity at this point, it is rare to see him compete and think he might just lose the match.
Gordon has also been quite busy since winning ADCC as well. His record since the victory is 26-1-2, his lone loss to Vinny Magalhaes. With his brash personality, increased size and strength, and all the momentum in the world coming in, and victories over the other two biggest threats to him, it's safe to say Gordon is the favorite coming in.
Lucas Barbosa:
Record - 138 wins, 29 losses
World Titles - IBJJF World Championship 2018 (closed bracket with teammate). IBJJF NoGi World Championship 2015, 2016, 2017 (weight and absolute).
The other favorite to win this weight class, Barbosa's loss to Ryan was incredibly close, and considered somewhat controversial as well. Known as the Hulk, and rightfully so, Barboza's physical talents are impressive, but only second to his BJJ skills.
Barbosa's takedown abilities are really going to come in handy, and he's particularly dangerous with his trips and throws. Under the ADCC ruleset, that is a toolset worth having. Combined with his excellent pressure passing game, the Hulk is incredibly dangerous when he's allowed to get going on top.
His record against the field is reason to give his supporters hope Lucas can take the victory here. He's beaten Tim Spriggs (1-0) quite recently, and thoroughly too, had the close match with Gordon Ryan, beaten Vinny Magalhaes (1-0), is winning his series with Patrick Gaudio (3-2), and Jackson Sousa (2-0). There's no doubt in my mind we will see Barbosa on that podium, but he is not my pick to win it all. I think he will have to settle for second place with Ryan in the division.
Jackson Sousa:
Record - 136 wins, 55 losses
World Titles - IBJJF NoGi World Championship 2013.
Sousa took 3rd in ADCC 2017, and while he's far from the favorite to win this year, seeing him podium again is not an unlikely scenario. Sousa has been in the game for a long time, has fought a laundry list of elite BJJ competitors, and has beaten a fair few of the best guys as well. Garry Tonon, Yuri Simoes, Rafael Lovato Jr, and Felipe Pena to name a few of them.
Sousa is a strong and athletic athlete, and he uses it well. His passing game from a distance, takedowns, and explosiveness make him extremely difficult to deal with. Depending on how the brackets shake out, Sousa may be able to work his way into a finals match, although it is not the most likely scenario. That being said, I believe he is going to take 3rd again.
Of all my picks, this is one I'm less confident in, as Vinny Magalhaes and Patrick Gaudio are both guys who are more than likely to be able to podium as well. While I think the 1 and 2 spots are pretty set, that 3rd place is really up for grabs. The way we see this division play out will be heavily dependent on the brackets.
99+ Kg (218+ lbs)
Marcus Almeida:
Record - 133 wins, 12 losses
World Titles - IBJJF World Champion 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 (weight and absolute for all except 2018). IBJJF NoGi World Champion 2010, 2011 (weight and absolute for both). ADCC Champion 2013, 2017.
Look, "Buchecha" is winning this tournament barring some sort of weird occurance. Almeida is, without a doubt, the premier big man in the sport. His ridiculous list of accomplishments aside, he's a legitimately high level athletic talent with skills to match. I'd go through everyone he's beaten but it would take a while so here's like, five. Roberto Abreu, Felipe Pena, Alexandre Ribeiro, Leandro Lo, and Rafael Lovato Jr.
There's really not much Almeida can't do. He's a threat from virtually anywhere and I'd say don't let him get your back, or grab your feet, or take you down...but you can't. Almeida is truly a force of nature in the division and the sport. He's already the Ultra Heavyweight GOAT and he's closing in on GOAT status period in terms of accomplishments, and the inevitable 3rd ADCC title will help him get there.
Orlando Sanchez:
Record - 12 wins, 5 losses.
World Titles - ADCC 2015 Champion
Sanchez does not have an extensive competitive record in BJJ, but when he shows up at ADCC, look out. With his 2015 victory and 2017 second place finish, this massive man is a scary force to have to go up against. His list of victories include Leandro Lo, Dean Lister, and Vinny Magalhaes.
A mountain of a man, virtually impossible to move once he's on top of you, and with a solid takedown game to get him there, Sanchez's surprising agility for a man his size make him a force on top, and one that we've seen lead to great success under this ruleset. He may not be the idealized BJJ guy in a classic sense, but the effectiveness of his style is unquestionable. Seeing him podium should not shock anyone.
Roberto Abreu:
Record - 108 wins, 37 losses.
World Titles - IBJJF Masters 2 World Champion 2018. IBJJF NoGi World Champion 2010, 2011, 2012, 2017 (Weight and Absolute in 2010). ADCC Champion 2013 (Absolute only).
Despite being 38 years old, Cyborg incredibly well on the competitive circuit. Since losing to Gordon Ryan at the last ADCC, "Cyborg" has won 25 of his 28 matches with the aforementioned NoGi world title among those wins to boot.
The developer and prime purveyor of the Tornado guard, Cyborgs unique style allows him to attack from a wide variety of positions that were not as readily available to more traditional inverted guard players.
While Cyborg winning ADCC is incredibly unlikely with Almeida reigning atop the division, Cyborg taking second is not out of the question. If he's matched well, seeing him take second this year, which would be an improvement from his third place finish last year, is not out of the question.
Honorable Mention: Hudson Taylor - Another of my Marcelo Garcia brethren, Hudson is an interesting late notice addition to this tournament. While only a purple belt, he boasts a wrestling pedigree that cannot be ignored. The 3-time NCAA D1 All-American wreslter set the record for most pins and wins in the history of the University of Maryland, College Park. While his lack of BJJ experience is likely to make him susceptible to getting caught with something, Hudson might very well sneak his way to the podium with the right gameplan and matchups.
Absolute
With Felipe Pena not competing this year, the Absolute division will most definitely see the crowning of a new champion. In 2017, we saw Almeida take 3rd and Gordon Ryan 2nd. How will those two match up? I for one would love to see it, and it's quite likely we will. It's hard to see either of them losing before reaching the finals. 3rd place will be wide open and entirely dependent on how the brackets are made but quite frankly, the thought of an Almeida/Ryan Absolute finals is absolutely crazy to me.
Well, there you have it. A definitive guide to the Men's divisions ADCC 2019 tournament. Will my predictions be correct? Only time will tell. All I can say is I am excited for the field of competitors we're seeing this year and look forward to providing you with a recap down the line as well.