Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs. Callum Smith: The Fight Site Staff Predictions

Continuing boxing’s resurgence in the final quarter of 2020, we’re in for a real Christmas treat - Mexican megastar and P4P #1 Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez squares off against WBA and Ring super-middleweight champion Callum Smith on Saturday night. Will Canelo be able to navigate the length of Smith, or will the Brit’s size be a step too far for the pound-for-pound king? Take a look at our boxing staff’s predictions below to find out!

Kyle McLachlan: This is about as good a matchup as you'll find at super middleweight...yet it still isn't very intriguing to me. For all talk of Callum Smith's vaunted power and upside in terms of skill level, he has looked tactically inept and offensively impotent against the likes of Holzken and Skoglund, and was a clear loser for me against John Ryder. Against Ryder, Smith found the shorter, more proactive Ryder a nightmare. Smith was relatively easy to back up, and the lack of depth in his toolbox was exposed. If you look at his scariest knockouts, they have all come against either shot fighters (Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam) or Euro-level fighters (and that's being kind) in Fielding and Blackledge. The only fight in which he has beaten a world class fighter had asterisks as well, as George Groves was coming off an injury and in my opinion he had got through much of his post-Carl Froch career on guts and power, looking less than stellar even in winning performances.

You will see that I am only really talking about Smith and his supposed shortcomings. That is because little needs to be said against Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez. In terms of the style matchup, I have little to say either. Even with Smith's gargantuan frame at 168lbs, his decent jab, and his offensive variety, I have little doubt that he is a few levels below Alvarez. I won't even be staying up late to watch this one. As I said earlier, this is as good a matchup as you'll find at super middleweight, but that is merely a byproduct of the division currently being very thin on the ground in terms of depth. Give me Alvarez. Manner of victory? Who knows, but after three rounds we should see him pull away, leaving no doubt as to the result whether it's by decision or via late stoppage.

Taylor Higgins: This is one of the easier picks I’ve made in recent memory. The key to this one is watching Smith-Ryder - I had Ryder comfortably winning, and everything that Ryder did that was so effective Canelo does better. Logic says that Smith is going to be looking to utilise his length and keep Alvarez on the end of his jab, but I think Canelo is going to out-jab the taller man - watch out for him leaning over his lead foot in particular. This trick is multi-purpose; not only will it draw the lead from Smith which Canelo can punish by pulling back and countering, but he’ll also be using it to disguise his jab and keep the Brit guessing. Coupled with slick upper-body movement, and I think Alvarez is going to make Smith tentative early on. This will suit the Mexican to a tee, as he’ll be able to control the tempo and subsequently manage his stamina more effectively.

As well as this, I expect to see a staunch commitment to bodywork from Canelo. He’ll be ripping counters to the body from the opening bell, and will be too crafty for Smith up-close. This will slow the rangy Brit down, but it’ll also create openings upstairs later on. Smith will lower his high guard in response to the sustained body attack, which is perfect for Canelo’s trademark deceptive left hook to the head. I can see that shot in particular working a treat as the fight goes on.

Ultimately, I don’t give Smith much of a chance here and would be impressed if he saw the final bell. That’s not to say he’s a bad fighter in any way, but I think he is very orthodox to the point where he won’t surprise Canelo with anything or pose anything too problematic other than simply being tall. I’ve got Canelo by KO/TKO inside 10.

Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: The Smith-Canelo fight is going to be great because the matchup will show the world once again how special Canelo is. Smith is tall & long and to be fair he’s a good opponent, but even though he’s going to give Saul a harder time than his brother did I don’t think he’ll give the Mexican that much trouble regardless. Canelo is going to walk forward slowly but surely with his high-guard, looking to slip/duck under any straight punches from Smith in order to close the distance and get to work at close range (mixing both body and head very well). He’s one of the very best at this. He can catch and counter too, using his super upper-body movement as bait to draw anything he wants from Smith. Canelo had to deal with a very good jab against Sergey Kovalev, but still found many ways to get by it. Here he does have more distance to cover but less power coming his way. Canelo’s capacity to vary his rhythm is also something that can throw Smith off. If Canelo establishes his weapons early then he’s unstoppable, he’ll feint and vary his combinations and looks in a way that makes him totally unpredictable. Canelo’s only issue is pacing himself, but he’s learnt to manage this very well.

So what can / should Smith do? He should try to tire Canelo out and make him work more than he wants, but this is a dangerous game to play. I’d like to see Smith framing Canelo every-time the beautiful ginger gets close and using it to line up punches, but I’ve never seen him do this. Even if he can back Canelo up, which is doubtful, Canelo is too slick on the ropes and his shot selection is perfect. Smith should avoid single shots as much as possible and try to catch Canelo coming in, but the more he throws the more open he’ll be to Canelo’s counters which will be faster, more accurate and more powerful than he’s felt before.

Even though he is much taller and longer, I don’t think Smith will do much other than showing how tough he is. Canelo will always struggle more against an elusive, fast counter-puncher with lateral movement than he will a long, basic boxer. Canelo TKO 10.

Ollie Raderecht: I’m in agreement with everyone else here. Despite Canelo-Smith being a very good divisional matchup (although Smith-Ryder took the shine off it somewhat) I don’t envision a particularly competitive fight unfolding. Firstly, I rate Canelo extremely highly. For who he’s beaten, he’s my pound-for-pound #1 currently; arguably the finest body puncher in the sport, among the most astute defensively and creative offensively.

Comparatively, I don’t think much of Callum Smith: a good but decidedly not elite fighter who’s undoubtedly benefitted from competing during a weak era for the super-middleweight division. Still, he’s massive for the weight (considerably taller and longer than Canelo), tough, powerful and primed. Given the size disparity, Smith may opt for a jab-heavy approach, but I’ve never rated Smith’s lead hand all that much, and Canelo may be the best in the world at working off an opponent’s jab. Alvarez’s shrewd distance management and proactive upper-body movement will allow him to effectively and consistently close the gap and work away at mid-range. In addition, by drawing out Smith’s jab (look for the deceptive forward lean that’s been mentioned) and establishing a counter-threat, Canelo will make Smith tentative to throw. From that point, Canelo can exploit Smith’s tendency to employ a basic earmuff defence by pounding the body (we’ve seen both Groves and Ryder have success with that), which in turn will create a path to the head. After a competitive start, I’m predicting the Mexican to quickly take control of the contest and highlight the gulf in skill between the two, en route to stopping Smith in the second half of the fight. For me it’s not a question of whether Smith can win, rather how long he can last. Canelo KO 8.

Lukasz Fenrych: What does Callum Smith need to do to beat Canelo? Well, in summary, be a different fighter. There’s been some chat about how his jab is going to cause Canelo problems, but in truth he hasn’t been a historically good jabber - he threw 800 against Holzkien and won based on that, but ultimately Holzkien is a kick boxer. Any time Smith has been involved in a jab battle against a high-level boxer he’s lost it, and usually given it up. If he has spent the time out developing a higher-level jab and the mindset to stick with it, he has a chance, but it’d be a whole new thing for him.

Normally that isn’t a disaster since his jab isn’t the centrepiece of his game, because he wants people to come inside it where he can unleash his hard counters. Canelo will have a very long range to cross where he’s in Smith’s power-shot range but the reverse isn’t true, and that will most likely be Smith’s plan as usual - let him in closer, slide back as Canelo punches to put himself back on the edge of range, and attempt to counter from there. It’s not an unworkable plan (because for all Canelo’s vast improvements in footwork, which is now genuinely very good, it’s still not fast) but far more than any of Smith’s opponents to date, Canelo knows how to keep himself safe with head movement and his guard both before and after punching, so Smith would need to show more craft in baiting openings than he typically has to date.

As a result of that, and also of Smith’s tendency to shell up into a high guard (albeit a very long and slightly active one) when an opponent does get through that range, tucking up into ‘my-turn-your-turn’ type fighting, the most likely outcome is a fight where Canelo spends the early rounds figuring out where best to get through, then eventually starts to get in close, aim high to bring the guard up, and then force a stoppage with body shots underneath. Canelo KO 9.