26th May 2021: Boxing Predictions

Photo courtesy of Esther Lin/SHOWTIME

This Saturday brings us a packed slate of boxing yet again, as Gervonta Davis steps up to another new division to take on Mario Barrios and Vasyl Lomachenko makes his comeback against the rangy Nakatani. Elsewhere, fringe elite light-middleweights Jeison Rosario and Erickson Lubin square off, whilst Kazakh middleweight prospect Zhanibek Alimkhanuly steps up against Rob Brant. Mexican flyweight wrecking ball Julio Cesar Martinez also returns, as does Batyr Akhmedov. Our boxing team breaks down this weekend’s action.

Gervonta Davis vs Mario Barrios:

Lukasz Fenrych: I have to confess, I’ve never rated Davis as high as many do. He’s not a bad fighter, by any means, but in my eyes he’s got to where he’s got to with a combination of sheer speed and power and good punch mechanics meaning he can launch attacks cleanly with little setup without telegraphing them. That’s fine as far as it goes, but the more he moves up in weight, the less his power tells, and the less safe he is at distance while preparing his attacks. And defensively, he’s always been a fighter who knows what to do, but doesn’t link it well with his other work - so if he’s planning an attack, or disengaging, he’s not really moving his head (slightly different to moving his head while attacking, which he does do- sometimes). The bigger his opponents, the longer that time when he’s moving without good defence. 

This could be a problem against Barrios, who although not an enormous 140lber is quite a lot bigger than Tank. He’s also a guy who boxes on the outside well- in his controversial win over Batyr Akhmedov, it was when Akhmedov could get close that he started having problems. This could be an issue, but since Davis is not a pressure fighter by trade he’s unlikely to draw out the freeze-up, stand-still-behind-a-poor-guard problems Akhmedov did, especially not with extended combinations.
Barrios is hittable, even when at distance, so I’d expect Tank to have some success, and if the power does carry he may gain a stoppage, but beyond that I’d expect a scrappy fight that goes the distance, one close enough that the decision will be argued over but in which I’ll pick Barrios by Decision

Taylor Higgins: I’m in the same camp as Lukasz in that I think Tank gets a tad overrated, and for all his explosiveness, speed and power it’ll be interesting to see if that pop carries to 140lbs - and whether he can close the gap against a bigger, longer fighter in Barrios who will be looking to box on the outside. Whilst Tank sticking around at light-welterweight is a bad idea as I just don’t think he has the physical attributes to compete with the division’s elite, if he’s switched on here (always a big if with Davis) I’m backing Tank to win by decision or, if his power carries, late stoppage. I think Barrios is pretty shit, to be quite honest, and even though Tank isn’t a great pressure fighter he’ll be able to find Barrios without much issue.

Dan Albert: I’ll extrapolate upon some ideas of who I think Davis is as a fighter. Specifically, I think Davis is focused upon his attributive gifts with too little a focus upon fundamentals. He clearly knows how to play with rhythm with body work. He knows he has to be patient and time counters in the pocket. He knows how to be responsibly defensive on the ropes. Though he has what I’d say are two general modes: One, where he’s moving forward and seemingly at his most comfortable, picking shots to set up significant punches. Two, he’s on the backfoot, trying to counter. The problem is that there seems to be little melding to any kind of game here. This isn’t to say that Davis isn’t dangerous, but he’s extremely reliant upon his offense over defense. Davis’ jab, for instance, is moreso a throwaway than an extensive tool. He tends to look to be in a neutral, exchanging range than creating positional advantages around his opponent; his backwards ringcraft has a ton to be desired seeing how easy it is to back him up. The most obvious question with Davis is going to remain what happens if he can’t enforce his power, though I’d also add that pace and entries are equally important. LSC was undone by his own defensive liabilities, though his pace and willingness to exchange made things much harder for Davis than otherwise. What happens when Davis has an opponent who can’t just outphysical him, but can alternatively outposition or nullify his fight? I’m not too sold on him being the sort of fighter to adapt in those regards. As for Barrios, I don’t have much to add to what Lukasz said, though he might be an interesting test of Davis’ game and where it stands at the moment. Tentatively and expecting to be wrong - Barrios by UD.

Mateusz: So, yeah. Sometimes, a really good fighter will come up against someone who is not at their level overall, but in the particular match-up, is just badly suited to them. This may just be one of those. Barrios may not be shit overall, but he does seem a little one-note, and susceptible to a spot of crumbling under pressure. But, Gervonta is not a pressure fighter. Barrios’ defence at range is serviceable, and he is capable of staying calm, eyes open, in an exchange. He has decent pop and can string a cohesive combo together, and is also capable of moving an opponent back with combinations. Gervonta, while not immobile, seems to tend not to incorporate his feet into his defence much, so when his upper body movement has exhausted it’s usefulness he can often end up crashing into his opponent, or just end up getting hit; he also lacks head movement at range, which will be something of an issue against someone with a significant reach advantage in Barrios.

Now, as evidenced by Barrios’ fight with Akhmedov, Barrios’ defence on the inside is not good. In fact it’s really lacking; if Gervonta has any in-fighting instincts, he can absolutely make hay there. As my co-writers have said; while on defence, Tank’s headmovement is lacking, but when attacking, he’s actually not bad at slipping past range weapons to get a closer bearing. Not to mention, he does have some smarts; his epic KO of Leo Santa Cruz was no fluke - he’d been setting the uppercut up all night. But he did ship some free shots while waiting for the opportunity. And while Barrios may be susceptible to pressure on the inside, when he faded hard against Akhmedov, it was the relentless pace that really did for him, and Gervonta will not ply him with that.

So to recap; Barrios - long, middlingly powerful and accurate, and able to throw decent combos at range, versus Tank - very powerful but has difficulty being consistently effective on the outside versus taller opponents (even against Santa Cruz, not notably a longer fighter, he has moments where he seems occasionally stumped at range), and not possessing the sort of pace that has troubled the bigger fighter before; I think a scrappy Barrios UD might be on the cards.

Erickson Lubin vs Jeison Rosario:

Lukasz: This is a clash of two junior-middleweight victims of Jermell Charlo - Rosario his most recent, Lubin back in 2017 since when he’s worked his way back into contention in the division. Both will presumably be looking to come out of this with a view to another shot at what might soon be the undisputed champ.

It should be an intriguing fight, if not necessarily a full-bore slugfest. Both are cagey, careful fighters for the most part, Rosario a bit more come-forward. The pattern of the fight is likely to be him advancing behind his jab, looking to draw reactions that he can counter, with Lubin in turn looking to slip that jab (probably moreso than try to win the jab battle outright) and find his openings that way.

I’d say that between the pair, Lubin is more creative, has a better arsenal of punches, but Rosario has, for the most part, better form, less likely to get himself off balance when chasing a shot (something Lubin does quite often, and which we saw, albeit some time ago now, against Charlo when he ducked into a knockout shot) and with good proactive head movement. There is a caveat to this though- his guard is high, static and very open to the body, something Charlo exploited ruthlessly.  Thus both have gaps that the other can exploit, but between the two I’d suggest that Lubin’s habits are more dangerous to himself, and will therefore go for Rosario by KO though really it could go any way.

Taylor: A few things to add; whilst this fight looks great on paper and Lubin’s trainer Kevin Cunningham even said it could turn out like Hagler-Mugabi, I think we’re likely to get a cagey contest with Lubin clinching throughout. The American is awkward and probably the more skilled of the two, but I’ve never bought into his power and it’ll be interesting to see whether he can keep Rosario - a big light-middleweight - off of him. As Lukasz mentioned, Rosario’s high guard means he’s vulnerable to the body, but whilst Lubin can probably sting him downstairs he doesn’t have the same kind of pop as Charlo.

Another caveat is how Rosario looks at the weight - a few eagle-eyed viewers spotted that Rosario appeared drained at the weigh-in when he fought Jermell, and he didn’t seem nearly as durable as when he was walking down Julian Williams. Maybe Rosario has outgrown 154lbs, which could well be the difference. It’s definitely something to keep in mind, but I’m going to opt for Jeison Rosario by late TKO. I can see Lubin taking rounds early, before Rosario presses the action and breaks the American down as the fight goes on. I’m not confident in that pick, though.

Batyr Akhmedov vs Algenis Mendez:

Lukasz: Akhmedov is looking to bounce back from that previously mentioned loss to Barrios. He’s a tough, come-forward customer with holes all over his defence but a mauling attack. That Mendez is in a similar mould means we could get a firefight so long as it lasts (or we could get a dirty clinchfest, who knows), but there’s a difference in quality here that means it’s likely to end up quite one-sided. Akhmedov KO 3. 

Mateusz: Hmm, yes. This fight could well be a headbutt-filled grind, but it could also be a short banger. It seems to me that the difference maker here could be the pace that each respective boxer likes to keep. And as I’ve mentioned previously, Akhmedov has some seemingly superb conditioning - the pace he kept in the Barrios match was prodigious, and seems to be beyond what Mendez could hope to match. Neither fighter appears to be an absurdly powerful puncher, but I’m predicting Akhmedov’s output to win him the day; TKO5.

Vasiliy Lomachenko vs Masayoshi Nakatani:

Lukasz: This, clearly, is Lomachenko’s road to goad Teofimo Lopez into a rematch. The young champion previously had a fight with Nakatani in which he performed so awkwardly he declared afterwards his intention to never fight a tall man ever again (something that raised a few questions about his mentality at the time). Nakatani has since gone on to upset former high-level prospect (and current murder suspect) Felix Verdejo, proving he’s a legitimate presence at the top levels, and Loma will be looking to bring the style to show the world that, actually, he does have something Lopez doesn’t after all.
It’ll be a testing fight, though. If he’s at his best, he should do what he plans - Nakatani uses his length as an attacking weapon, pushing opponents back behind a busy jab and looking to counter as they close distance, but he moves in straight lines and is fairly hittable (as proved by Verdejo, who dropped him twice early before becoming overwhelmed), which should be catnip to Lomachenko, who loves a straight-line mover to step around. But if the Ukranian genius is off the pace, that combination of a very notable size difference, some solid power, and intercepting shots could give him a tough time. I’m going to go Lomachenko by decision, because Nakatani is probably too big and tough for him to stop by sheer power, but if at his sharpest Loma will be looking for the humiliation quit and that might happen.

Taylor: An intriguing fight, and the one I’m most looking forward to this month. Lomachenko will want to make a statement and beat Nakatani more decisively than Teofimo López managed, but there’s also questions regarding where he’s at following another surgery. Time isn’t on Lomachenko’s side anymore, and given that he’s competing at his weight ceiling this is a very tricky fight. If Loma is near his best I expect it to go somewhat similarly to the Campbell fight, with Loma moving both his head and feet simultaneously to get inside Nakatani’s long levers and land his work up close. I think he’ll have a trickier time than he did against Campbell though, partly because of the open stance matchup (Loma is generally more effective against southpaws) as well as the fact that he won’t be as sharp following the layoff. Even if the Ukrainian does come out with a real spiteful streak, I’d be surprised if he won inside the distance given Nakatani’s size and physicality (similar again to the Campbell fight). For that reason, I’m picking Lomachenko by 9-3 type decision.

Mateusz: Well, this is, for me, the most interesting fight of the weekend, for reasons both Taylor and Lukasz have mentioned; the bragging rights, should Loma win convincingly, could well earn Loma the rematch that he likely wants, and so far Teo has been reluctant to countenance.

It does seem like a fairly straightforward match-up too. Nakatani is no mug, but he’s competent in an unspectacular way. He’s tough, composed and has good conditioning and a decent jab, something that really did cause Lopéz some issues when they fought. He was also perfectly aware of how to use his length to stifle Lopéz’s lancing attacks. His main issue is that Lomachenko, while having been negated for so long by Lopéz, offers a very different threat; he’s mobile in a way that Lopéz isn’t (although Lopéz figured out of course), and doesn’t have much trouble fighting guys with a longer reach, for the most part (see for example his fight vs Luke Campbell). Nakatani isn’t as mobile, or as smart with his defensive movement to negate Loma’s angle-cutting, feints and head-movement. Lomachenko is a smart fighter with an underrated nasty streak, and he will likely have regular and easy access to Nakatani’s body as he pivots around, and Nakatani can’t keep up; I can see him beating up Nakatani’s body relentlessly, and hurting him once or twice.

I’mma go out on a limb and say Loma stops the Japanese fighter with bodywork late, say with a TKO10.

Zhanibek Alimkhanuly vs Rob Brant: 

Lukasz: Alimkhanuly is one of a number of Kazakh fighters currently making their way in the pro ranks. He doesn’t seem to be getting the push some of the others have (Akhmedov, Yeleussinov and more recently Kulakhmet), but honestly out of all of them he might have the best balance of attacking intent and defensive roundedness. He’s a smooth, polished boxer who likes to open up space with a jab before stepping in with combinations, and who has a nice mixing of both footwork and head movement both defensively and proactively when attacking. At 28 years old he’ll need to get a move on if he wants to work his way into world title contention, and beating Rob Brant convincingly on this card would go some way to doing that. 

Brant isn’t there just to be run over- he’s been in at world level before, including outboxing Riyota Murata for an upset win before being knocked out in the rematch. He will be hoping to upset the applecart here and has a combination of rangy movement and some creative setups with which to trouble Alimkhanuly, but he does have one obvious issue in that he tends to loop and reach with a lot of his punches, something that should play into the Kazakh’s hands as the fight goes on. Alimkhanuli by KO in the later rounds.

Julio Cesar Martinez vs Joel Cordova:

Lukasz: Martinez is one we all should be watching, a relentless attacking force who might be the most destructive fighter south of 130lbs who isn’t Naoya Inoue. But Cordova is a regional-level Mexican fighter who from the footage of him that’s around is very hittable and very raw. He shouldn’t really be here. Worth looking out for if you’ve not seen Martinez do his smash routine before, but really you’re better off watching him do that against previous, better opposition if you’re new here, and other than that, let’s just hope he gets a better fight next time. Martinez KO 1.

Taylor: I can’t see this going any way other than Martinez bagging a highlight-worthy KO in the first three rounds. Cordova’s defence isn’t up to scratch, he can’t keep Martinez off of him and quite frankly this is a mismatch. Bring on Sunny Edwards.

Mateusz: Exciting. Martínez is a force for sure, a tiny, tiny force. He’s powerful and he’s somewhat crude, but he is also quick and very, very relentless, even as his hands drop, punches start to loop and his feet square up. He’s not very defensively responsible and that leads to him getting tagged up a fair ol’ bit, but thus far, he’s managed to overwhelm everyone since he lost his very first fight.

He also has the power to rearrange a face or two, so he brings a tidy brutality not often seen in the lower weights (yes, apart from The Monster).

Meanwhile, Cordova has never fought outside of Mexico, and has never been in a twelve-rounder before. Plus, his stats suggest he doesn’t have the power to scare off his upcoming foe. Out of twelve wins he has three KO’s and has been KOd twice out of four losses.

I know stats don’t tell the whole story but here they describe a pretty convincing blurb. I suspect Cordova won’t make it to his first twelfth round. KO3