UFC 263: Staff Picks

Image courtesy of the UFC

The UFC’s third full-crowd event since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, UFC 263 is a stronger-than-average UFC card in a fairly bizarre way. Two title rematches, in itself, is a somewhat rare circumstance; a third five-round fight with no title on the line is unprecedented, and while it spells interesting things moving forward for the better non-title PPV fights, the booking itself is odd enough (without that wrinkle) that it might in fact just mean nothing at all. The three long fights have a strong supporting cast, but the focus is deservedly on the top-3 — two of them to decide the best man at their divisions, the last a de facto title eliminator between two fighters diametrically opposed in their paths and their processes.

In the main event, middleweight king Israel Adesanya returns to 185 after a competitive outing against 205 champion Jan Blachowicz — while he didn’t win a second belt on that occasion, he kept his status on top of his own division, and looks to turn back one of the fighters he beat on his way up. On his part, Marvin Vettori — who maintains that he won the first Adesanya fight, and in any case brought a messier outing from the kickboxing export — broke into the top 5 with his win over Jack Hermansson, and finds himself in position to avenge his last loss and be Italy’s first UFC champion. In contrast to the main event being a title rematch three years in the making, the co-main event rematch is a mere six months after their initial meeting — Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno went to a fight-of-the-year draw in December 2020, and the scrappy Mexican contender looks to have a better go of it the second time against one of the most vicious and dynamic champions today. In the five-round non-title bout, the durable veteran Nate Diaz gets a second crack at an elite welterweight — after his 2019 loss to Jorge Masvidal, he looks to find a way past the broadly-skilled British contender Leon Edwards.

The Fight Site’s MMA team has their predictions for the most important fights on the main card of UFC 263 — including who moves forward at 170, and which champions should be able to maintain their spots on top of their field.

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori 2

Sriram Muralidaran: Marvin Vettori might just be a blind spot for me, but I’ve always more felt like he was way too bland to really take much from — basically, all the talk of him being an actually elite fighter after the unduly-close first Adesanya fight felt like people making far too much of a skillset that was sensible and functional but essentially nothing more whatsoever (against an opponent who was clearly still working out the whole MMA thing). To his credit, he’s gotten a bit further with a strong athletic base and a skillset with no fun quirks than I expected, but even that feels like the nature of middleweight more than Vettori doing anything too special — his only top-5 win was Jack Hermansson, a fun but deeply flawed action-man at any other division, and his “title eliminator” was a short-notice fill-in by the inexplicably relevant Kevin Holland. He kept up on volume with Hermansson en route to a UD and successfully topgamed Holland, but with the great Robert Whittaker on the horizon beating up better fighters, his title fight feels like a product of circumstance.

In fact, the best parallel I can think of is Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar — in which a phenomenally impressive champion made a bid for a belt at a higher weight class, had a spirited attempt but failed against a notably bigger man, and the next defense was against a threat that was both less dynamic and less deserving than his usual standard. With Vettori, the obvious threat is the topgame — but Adesanya’s far stronger in tie-ups in comparison to middleweights than to the light-heavyweight champion, and Vettori doesn’t seem to have much of a mechanism to do his usual pared-down southpaw pressuring to fencewrestle against a striker with phenomenal ringcraft and strong responses to being kicked. That’s much of how the first fight went — Vettori would get his kicks defended, look to push Adesanya back with double jabs and straights, Adesanya would just switch directions or weave out, and Vettori just followed him around as a result. Vettori isn’t much of a boxer, either — he was able to catch Holland leaving exchanges messily and just reach out and hit Hermansson off the handfight with the straight left, but Adesanya’s much cleaner and more aware in both respects, and disarmed a bigger and quicker southpaw puncher in Gastelum for rounds at a time without a ton of issue. 

There’s a way in which the Kings blueprint with far more tact and diversity — a large prime Rafael dos Anjos, basically — could be really tricky for Adesanya, cutting off his exits and giving him few opportunities to get positional edges as he’s walked to the fence; with Adesanya’s huge edge in the clinch and Vettori’s durability being his only way to really last at range, though, Vettori’s implementation of that game is too big a leap to pick for me. Adesanya UD. 

Dan Albert: Fine. I’m going to play devil’s advocate and give that one angry (?) guy Marvin Vettori a chance without picking him. Let me explain:

In short, Vettori is a bit of a workman. Strategically and tactically, there isn’t too much process nor adjustment to what Vettori does. If anything else, it comes across as inconsistently rote and patterned. He’ll often rely upon his lead hand as a startup and building block. His offense will come in straight lines. There is practically zero transitional game. There’s this insane dichotomy whereupon he seems to overthink by watching his man and then is revealed to not have thought at all when he gets countered on entry. And yet he’ll keep doing things, ceaselessly and without end. What I’m getting at is that Marvin Vettori is a doer in the most meathead way possible without a semblance or directive influence. And yet, middleweight operates, as a division, in the microcosm of mediocrity where Vettori’s own willingness to just do things without seeming discouragement means he’s bound to find success, even at his own expense. He has yet to meet a fighter with the experience and poise to thoroughly punish him for those qualities, but he’s also shown the ability to make his opponent this weekend slightly uncomfortable before.

Don’t get me wrong though, Israel Adesanya is a sniper built to murder anyone who carelessly wanders into his range and the craft to outsmart anyone in the division. Sure, cheating anti-meta polymorphic Yoel Romero exposed how much Adesanya really needs his opponents to respect him and be punishable, though the latter hasn’t lost any other fight since or before at middleweight for a reason. In a sport that is principally built around layers of initiative, of course Adesanya’s savvy potshotting and momentum-building game of layered feints was going to wreak havoc. And yet the first bout with Vettori, despite still cleanly winning it, showed some of the internal issues with Adesanya’s game. And the one factor that can still be used against Adesanya remains longer engagements versus willing physical threats. Adesanya loves to use his handtraps and frames to keep himself safe instead of repositioning his head or feet; Vettori likes to use any contact, especially through frames/handtraps to create an exchange. Adesanya eventually figured out how to reposition away from Vettori’s linear attacks, though he still struggled to gain momentum outside of his kicking game. I can’t speak for both men’s preparation, but this single factor might be enough for Vettori to be more competitive than some people think once again. And it’s stupid enough that it can work to a bigger advantage: Getting Izzy to the cage. Jan Blachowicz’s discipline surprised everyone, and I don’t think anyone is going to call Vettori a good wrestler nor nearly as thoughtful. Though Vettori still technically is capable of getting Adesanya down. Obviously, I cannot speak to whether Adesanya’s takedown defense has improved all that much, but his bottom game since their first fight still remains a worrying prospect if he can’t stop Vettori from getting him there. This is, as far as I’m concerned, Vettori’s shot to victory. 

I don’t think he can do it. If Kevin Holland is finding that much success using the handfight to attack your legs, that’s a worrying proposition against a man with proportionally significant experience and guile over him. As stated, Adesanya already picked up on the vulnerability to kicks and the linearity before. Vettori has improved a bit, though I doubt it’s going to be enough. He may be tough enough to take a beating and make some things interesting for the champion; however, the disparity in depth and ability means his route to a win is too limited to see him taking this without specific improvements and gameplanning – I need to see something beyond mediocrity in Vettori to believe it. Though he could shout at Izzy at how anime was cancelled. Adesanya by increasingly lopsided decision.

Ben Kohn: We’re all picking Adesanya to win this, and it’s for good reason. Vettori is fine as a fighter, with the only thing standing out his is his relative muscle bound build for the division. He’s strong, decent speed, has good explosion, is extremely durable, and has a good tank. But outside his physical tools, nothing he does as a fighter stands out. His wrestling is serviceable, and has helped him win multiple fights, but it’s not especially deep. He also will not be working with the size Jan had to impose on Izzy either. Both Izzy and Vettori have gotten better, but it’s fair to say Izzy has had the most noticeable improvement of the two. 

Vettori being a tough southpaw who can fight at pace will make things interesting and ugly at first, but Izzy will eventually get his timing and start pulling away cleanly with this fight I think. Vettori’s defense is going to be the main issue here. His pullback to avoid incoming strikes are something Jack Hermansson was able to tag him multiple times doing, and he doesn’t have much in the way of pocket defense either. He does rely on his physical tools too much to overwhelm his opponents, and I think Izzy will be capable of dealing with that. It doesn’t help that Vettori is not a good finisher either. Israel Adesanya by Unanimous Decision.

Iggy Schekelburger: The respective strengths and weaknesses of each fighter were already outlined fairly in-depth by prior entries but to reinforce their point once again: this is Adesanya’s fight to lose. 

Vettori is as meat and potatoes as it gets, though with Middleweight being the way it is, it was apparently enough for him to somehow stumble and sputter his way to a title shot. Much of Vettori’s prior success against Adesanya happened back when Adesanya was still very much a kickboxer trying to navigate his way around MMA’s idiosyncrasies to find his way back to his primary area of strength — one could argue that Izzy is still the same fighter, albeit somewhat more refined. Or more limited, depending on how you look at it. It is worth discussing how the added layers of threats inherent in MMA stifled Adesanya’s ability to employ his striking prowess and made it more one-note compared to his kickboxing run but that’s a topic for another day.

Much of Blachowicz’s success stemmed from his inherent physical advantages over Adesanya but it nonetheless demonstrated how intelligent and disciplined application of said advantages is key if a fighter doesn’t wish to get pieced up on the feet by Izzy.

Vettori decidedly does not have Jan’s raw physicality. He’s plenty physical himself but he does not have reach parity with Adesanya nor do I believe he has the same discipline and intelligence to really zero in on certain key aspects that have allowed Jan to win. Another incredibly important aspect is that he also does not have Jan’s hitting power. The threat of Jan’s power put a hard cap on how many things Adesanya could do in order to build momentum, Jan’s reach has allowed him to safely jab with Adesanya and Jan’s physicality has allowed him to take Adesanya down and wear him out to a decision.

The fact that I spent more time talking about Blachowicz than I did about Vettori should point you to the fact that there is not much about Vettori that really stands out in this matchup. There’s not much to latch on to if you wish to find a route to victory for him, safe for perhaps sheer dogged resilience and stubbornness. It is also worth remembering that fighters who are “too dumb to fail” frequently do not exhibit that quality in title fights, e.g. Paulo Costa vs. Israel Adesanya and indeed Justin Gaethje vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov, so it is entirely possible that Vettori simply freezes and gets kicked up to an early stoppage/unanimous decision.

But such things are incredibly hard to predict when you lack data, so what data do we really have? Both are momentum-based fighters: Israel needs space and time to build his reads which is admittedly something that he is able to do extremely quickly against opponents who don’t really have anything to offer to him on the feet/from standing, but it’s still true. Vettori meanwhile drags the pace of the fight up by its ears all by himself, relying on durability and volume. If Adesanya were a more potent and willing counterpuncher that would spell disaster for Vettori but as it stands there is a short window where Vettori might find some success and grind on Adesanya for a bit — and those short windows were what made the 1st Adesanya/Vettori fight so strangely close. I think it’s pretty safe to say that this window has been shortened even further since Adesanya’s answer to his previous overreliance on frames and handtraps was to become incredibly aggressive in first-layer pocket exchanges: he just wants to blast his guy outta there and get the hell out. It might take Adesanya a bunch of tries but it should be sufficient against Marvin. 

Otherwise, it’s business as usual for Izzy: get the bead on Vettori through feints and safety leads and smack him a whole bunch until he’s not there anymore.

Vettori meanwhile should go in guns-blazing, if only to give Adesanya enough trouble early on to make him pause. Naturally this comes with risks: when you’re trying to push a pace and you lack the tools to do so consistently and safely the only pace you’re dictating is the pace at which you’re getting your ass kicked. Nonetheless, this is the only route where Vettori might at least create collisions that could be sufficient enough to stifle Adesanya’s initiative and squeeze out an ugly but nonetheless competitive enough decision win.

But I don’t trust him enough to have the wherewithal to do that and I don’t think he’s the kind of physical monster to bank on small successes like that. Adesanya, TKO3.

Ed Gallo: I can definitely see where Dan is coming from with his fears for Adesanya. He’s capable of evading or countering anything Vettori will throw at him, but right now it’s just a little harder to trust him to be confident and pull the trigger. I don’t want to take too much from the Jan Blachowicz fight, he’s a much different fighter than Vettori and the size difference was important. It’s possible that Vettori works himself into a competitive fight by keeping on steady pressure behind the two or three setups he knows, provided he can utilize round kicks to cut off potential exits. I don’t believe Vettori will have a lot of consistent success with this, but it could put him in situations to wrestle against the cage. I’m not anticipating many clean takedowns for Vettori, but it’s a better place for the fight to take place for his best winning condition. There are a lot of “ifs” and conditions that need to be established before I give Vettori a strong chance of winning rounds, and it’s much more likely that Adesanya picks him apart on the outside and lands enough stinging counters to either hurt Vettori, or scare him off from a volume approach. I’ll go with Adesanya via Unanimous Decision.  

Mateusz Fenrych: I agree with the general sentiment that this is Adesanya’s fight to lose. He won two clear, clear rounds out of three the first time, and only lost the third because in retrospect, he was genuinely a bit shit at navigating developing wrestling progressions.

Once or twice in that third round it seemed like he felt Vettori was about to enact some wrestling and rushed himself into taking the initiative, but instead fully compromised himself instead. As my learned colleagues have pointed out; it’s hard to judge Izzy’s wrestling since then because not many have actually genuinely tried to wrestle him for long stretches until Blachowicz came along, and yep, size definitely was a factor in Izzy’s failure there - although Izzy’s passivity was not comforting.

I can’t quite tally Vettori as meat-and-potatoes competent as a striker though; in the first fight his flurries and pressure were very spasmodic and unco-ordinated, and the ease with which Adesanya interrupted his advances and made him miss, especially early, was indicative of how I think this rematch will go. Sure, Vettori has likely matured as a fighter but then so has Adesanya; he’s less ruffled by pressure, which was a worry early on - even Vettori managed to make him fluff his lines once or twice the first time but since then he’s shut out, or KOd, aggressive pressure-y meatheads of the likes of Gastelum and Costa (although they admittedly didn’t pressure all that much over the course of the two bouts, but when they did they weren’t enormously successful).

One opening I can see for Adesanya here is; in the first fight I think he attacked the body too little. Vettori clearly didn’t react all that well to getting struck in the torso but it was not a well Israel went back to much - do so, and Vettori’s meathead-stamina meter could well empty before the final bell. In fact, I think Israel will stop Vettori this time out regardless, most likely by a TKO4.

Ryan Wagner: I’ve missed four of Vettori’s last five fights so don’t put money down based on my pick, but my impression of Vettori is that he’s a decently put together fighter with good ideas in a very broad sense who doesn’t execute any of them particularly well. He knows what he wants to do in terms of striking and wrestling, but the implementation lacks nuance. He’ll likely need to get Adesanya to the cage in order to take him down, and he doesn’t have the footwork or sound pressure tools to do that consistently. A lack of open-space wrestling means that when he does get opportunities to wrestle he’ll likely get tied up in the clinch, where Adesanya is much more competent defensively than in open space. If Vettori displays an ability to work in transitions and link his striking with his grappling effectively, he might give Adesanya some trouble by blending phases, but I expect Adesanya to smoothly pick him apart and finish him late. Adesanya via TKO.

Haxxorized: I don’t think I can add too much to the other observations here. You have a solid-to-great fighter who hasn’t been nearly as successful in stress-tests through the quagmire of five-round fights against top5 guys with diverse skills who can leverage them in a layered, transitional game … and Marvin Vettori. 

There are weaknesses within Adesanya that we now understand much better from the Romero and Jan fights. In particular, success has come to those deftly using the dual-threat of denying him data by handling his feints and minimising the damage from kicks, alongside wrestling/spontaneity threats. Is Marvin Vettori capable of executing well enough to do these things? Banking on Cordeiro to scrap a good plan seems like a solid bet, but it’s a tough ask.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno 2

Sriram: Think the dynamic of this fight is pretty defined at this point, and any changes are likely down to what the champion decides to do. In the first fight, Figueiredo stormed after Moreno, drawing out his lead hand with his pressure and cross-countering into huge combinations — and this was an incredibly effective approach for essentially the whole fight. Figueiredo proved that his cardio was more of a relative weakspot compared to his other attributes than an objective liability, and he stayed in such control of the engagements with his counters that Moreno couldn’t safely push the pace at all. This should work again, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if Figueiredo leaned more on his open-side kicking (which worked beautifully through the whole fight) and drawing Moreno into counters on the backfoot, as he did to save energy in the last round — either way, Moreno’s routes here seem very limited, as his openness on the counter interacts quite poorly with his need to push a hard pace on a powerful counterpuncher.

It essentially comes down to whether he can bodylock Figueiredo over and over for the entire fight, and the first fight showed that he can certainly bodylock him a lot of times, but it never translated to hugely successful top control — in fact, Figueiredo mostly outscored him from the bottom before pushing off. The bodywork likely does a lot to keep Moreno’s pure conditioning edge out of the picture, and he doesn’t really seem to have a way to enforce that edge without much stronger outside footwork or pocket defense (as opposed to just inhuman toughness). It seems like the advantage of him walking into Figueiredo’s counters, as opposed to Figueiredo walking him down and drawing his shots to counter them, is mostly illusory — even his moment in the fourth round that won it for him didn’t come without several minutes of Figueiredo thrashing him on the inside until Moreno caught him off-balance. 

Figueiredo is nearly as clever a fighter as he is an athletic destroyer, he got lots of data from the first fight, his last rematch (against a fighter who used to be much more adaptable than Moreno) ended with Figueiredo conducting a human sacrifice, he fought exactly the right sort of fight with Moreno the first time, and the first fight was the sort that could destroy a man’s durability —the odds are clearly stacked against Moreno, it just seems like a question of degree. And that makes the pick for me somewhat academic. Figueiredo KO5.

Dan: About half a year ago, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno tore into each other like they were fighting over meat. In some ways, I’m admittedly lukewarm about this rematch, particularly for the challenger. Although both proved their absurd toughness, there’s no doubt in my mind Moreno had to take the worst of it. The decision should not have been a draw, though immense credit has to be given to his grit and willingness to wage that kind of fight consistently. That said, I am anxious for him here. Figueiredo is unlikely to find a fighter right now at flyweight who can be a true foil. Someone who can outposition him and punish his entries with counters or intercepting takedowns (i.e., the body lock) is going to give him fits. Though we can’t resurrect the closest possible person to that in Jussier Formiga, whom most of us would confidently pick to edge out a win over Figueiredo, the ideas are still out there and Moreno can execute them. Ultimately, Moreno’s fairly-one-note jab and lack of lateral redirections gave him more trouble than he should have. He did show the right premises and got his licks in – he just didn’t have the craft to quite match his unreal will. Drawing out Fig’s own counters for counters of his own (esp. between the body/head) is a good start; he will need a more versatile jab and greater shot selection (with better defensive ringcraft) to make it matter.

The takedowns offer some optics – because the officials can’t be bothered to know their own rules* - and can practically minimize damage to build some momentum. It seems fairly obvious to everyone that this is a fight that Moreno needs to win on proof of adjustments and especially in terms of transitions (i.e. moving + rhythm changes + different shot selection). And, to be frank, a war of attrition is not the route for anyone in the division to take against Figueiredo, whose adaptable body attack saps whatever endurance disadvantage he might have had away. If an opponent gives him an opening, he makes his read and goes for it: openings to the body (see Rd. 3 opening minute as he turns Moreno into a punching bag) or over the jab are pragmatically exploited. In addition to his physical edge and finishing instincts, it becomes a risky fight for just about anyone to undergo. I guess, on Figueiredo’s side, it’ll be interesting to see what he does differently. I feel it’s unfair and reductionist to state this is another bout I can’t make a predictive read until I see certain aspects, though that seems to be what I’m doing here. At the very least, if both are still there in part, I would expect another firefight to break out eventually. In a fight based upon premises of former ideas excelling, I have to go with the fighter I trust to act on those lessons more. And that one is Deiveson Figuiredo, who I’ll pick to take a unanimous decision.

*A special thank you to the UFC commentating team at 256 for rivaling the HBO commentary team’s - Ray Leonard, Jim Lampley and Larry Merchant’s – coverage of Julio Cesar Chavez’s first bout with Meldrick Taylor for my personal least favorite high-profile call in combat sports. It was an incredible dishonor, you unprofessional philistines. 

Haxx: The first time we had this fight, I highlighted the importance of Fig’s self-knowledge and awareness as key players in his success. Can Fig consistently demonstrate his ability to make meaningful, clever second-stage adaptations when his first-stage success fails? All things being equal, I think the first fight answered most of these questions. Moreno copped a bloody body shellacking, Fig punished Moreno’s jab with high-power replies (can you say cross counter?), and hooked or threw uppercuts wherever he needed to. Moreno suffered the sort of physical punishment (even if the scorecards were interesting) that legitimately makes me worried for a fighter’s career longevity. If Fig’s worked on his TDD and leans a little more into lower-energy approaches like jabbing, it could be even worse this time.

Likewise, Moreno’s success came from specific vulnerabilities in the Fig approach to the clinch and general wrestling defence that Ben and Ed have talked about enough already. He has to maintain top control and must be creative, clever and disciplined in using it. The problem for me when thinking “What does a winning Moreno fight look like?” is that Fig has a simpler path to victory - repeat the majority of his successes from the first fight, develop a few more energy-efficient striking options, and work on the TDD and the clinch considerations. Moreno has areas he can control or even dominate the fight in, but they don’t come together in as clear or concise a way as -> outstrike man -> hit the body -> pace yourself -> use superior power to control the fight’s theme. I sincerely hope he doesn’t get broken the way Joe B did.

Ben: Won’t be anything wonky about this decision. Either Moreno can build on those clinch takedowns and actually maintain control on top to make something happen or he gets slaughtered. You can’t assume he can eat that kind of punishment again. He could, but banking on that, with seemingly no path to victory outside of being able to out-grapple Fig, isn’t a recipe for success. There was no need for this rematch to happen. If Fig somehow loses this fight via wrestlefuck, holy shit. I don’t see it happening. He’s going to rip Moreno’s body to shreds again and I just….man I hope Moreno isn’t broken after this. Deiveson Figuiredo by Unanimous Decision.

Iggy: I think we may have a pattern here, folks. This is Figueredo’s fight to lose.

The cross-counter was there all day for Figueredo, and Moreno didn’t really show any ability to use his jab in a way that doesn’t get him blasted in the face. The only thing that saved him really was his ridiculous physical durability and sheer doggedness. The all-time terrible performance from the commentary booth has spawned a narrative wherein the fight was made out to be way more competitive than it actually was: Moreno had one significant moment of success in the standup while Figueredo had him dead to rights in essentially every exchange. Moreno would land a single jab, get blasted in the face with a right, and then eat a combination of several hellacious body hooks and uppercuts in a row, and Rogan would yell at the top of his lungs: “BUT THAT JAB BY MORENO THO”. Just shocking.

But as it’s been pointed out by Sriram the bodylock once again proved to be Figgy’s achilles heel; I don’t know if it’s because Figgy is just a big softie who really really loves hugs but his propensity towards getting bodylocked out of the blue is fairly concerning, if not embarrassing. If Figueredo is smart — and he’s yet to prove that he isn’t — he’ll start ripping into Moreno’s ribs and solar plexus from the word “go”. Destroying Moreno’s body with punches and kicks is key if Figueredo does not want to waste his prime on another rematch brought about by judges not knowing how to score fights.

A real power move would be to kick Moreno in the dick once again, get a point deducted, and then 10-7 him to a unanimous decision anyway.

This could work as the perfect setup for me to go “there’s my pick” — *air horns* — but I actually think Figgy is just gonna knock him out. Figueredo KO/TKO2.

Ed: My read coming into the first fight was that Figueiredo was going to counter Moreno consistently, and with power, and that Moreno’s grappling offense was his best shot at a win. I think that held up decently, but Figueiredo’s takedown defense was definitely disappointing. Those takedowns did not truly end up factoring in when it comes to the actual scoring criteria, but I’m sure one or two judges were swayed - which makes a huge difference in a “draw” scenario. Figueiredo has more to build on than Moreno, he was largely in control of that fight and it’s hard to see a world in which Moreno takes similar punishment and isn’t put in serious danger. It was a much more dominant performance from Figueiredo than many remember, I’m glad Sriram and I covered it in this week’s episode of Bad Calls. Assuming Figueiredo has made some gains in his ability to defend bodylocks, I don’t think Moreno has a great chance at all - barring any physical dropoffs from Figueiredo due to weight cutting and age. I’ll go with Figueiredo round 2 TKO. 

Mateusz: As Sriram has already pointed out, Fig has had one rematch in the UFC, and made it more emphatic than the first fight. In short, I think the same will happen here.

The first fight was competitive but it was not close, despite the official result; Moreno had the toughness and wherewithal to keep himself in the fight to the very end, but when Figuereido really applied a not-altogether-consistent focused pressure, he really was in danger of taking over the fight.

He is not a dumb fighter at all, and he will have seen what worked in the first fight; jabs, level-changes into counters and, above all, kicks to the body. If Deus de Guerra can keep unusually disciplined and stick to a rigorous gameplan, I can see him being the first fighter in the professional ranks to break Moreno down, despite the Mexican’s legendary and deserved reputation for durability.

Moreno’s main weapons were pace and toughness, and well, he was outlanded by the much heavier hitter last time out. This does not bode well for his hopes of keeping Fig off him this time around, and with what Fig will have learned, I’m predicting a TKO3  for the Brazilian.

Ryan: I don’t have much to add besides echoing what has already been said. The first fight wasn’t particularly close, there’s no need for a rematch aside from entertainment, and immediate rematches tend not to go well for the guy that lost the first fight. Powerful counterpunching can limit a volume striker’s options, and Moreno doesn’t have the defense or finesse to disrupt Fig’s counters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Moreno’s inhuman durability is cracked due in part to the damage he took in the first fight, but I’ll go with Figueiredo via UD.

Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz

Sriram: This seems like a cooler fight in terms of what it means for Edwards moving forward than as a fight in itself, and the potential intrigue of Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 2 is not the subject of this particular article. So this one doesn’t need a ton of explanation — Edwards is an absolutely elite fighter who can kick Diaz up on the outside, is a far stronger defensive fighter, is a much better ring general on the backfoot than Diaz is on the front foot, can win in the pocket, and definitely wins on the inside (with a tremendous clinch game that Anthony Pettis lacked when Diaz crowded him after struggling in the open). Edwards is a strong takedown artist, especially off his fantastic reactive clinch entries, which makes Diaz’s constant forward-moving volume tougher to enforce — and Edwards’ wrestly top-game gives him a lot of play on top with Diaz. He’s gone five rounds before as well, against a far more thoughtful pressurer who throws a lot of volume in Rafael dos Anjos. There’s no spot here that looks fun for Diaz to inhabit, early or late, long or close, and it seems fairly likely that Edwards just intercepts him early with the clinch and slices him to ribbons. Edwards by cut stoppage, round 1.

Ben: I don’t think there’s too much to say here. This is a fight for Edwards to look fantastic against a known commodity in Diaz, someone who’s record against actual welterweights isn’t good. No disrespect to Marcus Davis and Rory Markham, but they aren’t Leon Edwards. There’s really nothing Diaz can do here outside a flash sub on the ground or some wonky KO. Edwards is a safe, but more importantly smart, fighter, and won’t put himself in bad spots. He’s going to kick the shit out Diaz from the outside, making Diaz know he’s gotta pressure. His pressure is very linear and everyone he’s utilized it successfully against has been afraid to be there, and Edwards won’t. He’s leagues above Diaz in the clinch, and will slice him up there before separating and going back to beating his ass at range. This is going to be brutal, and it will go as long as Diaz’s durability allows for. Hopefully Nick is cornering again and will throw in the towel once it gets really bad. Leon Edwards TKO round 3. 

Iggy: This is Leon’s fight to— you get the idea.

MMA’s most cuttable man vs. MMA’s most prolific elbow striker? Is this some kinda sick joke? Or does the UFC still believe Nate Diaz is some kinda invincible 5-round monster — shame about the saggy, stretchy old man skin?

Then again this myth is so persistent I’m sure that even if Edwards sliced Nate’s entire face off people would still insist Nate could have bounced back and won in the 5th.

I am in full agreement with both Ben and Sriram: Nate Diaz does not have a safe spot against Leon Edwards in any area of the fight. The best and only thing Diaz can do is pull guard, which sure is a sentence I never thought I would ever say about an MMA fight, ever. In any context. And even then he’d probably get pounded out into either a TKO, or unconsciousness.

Nate is old, can’t cut the cage, and his face explodes into a shower of gore from every strike. I’m sorry but I am actually kinda mad this fight was even seriously considered by the matchmakers, much less booked. Edwards, stoppage.

Ed: Leon Edwards is not without flaws, but practically none of them will come into play in this matchup. This is another opportunity for him to continue the more aggressive approach we saw developing against Belal Muhammad. Leon Edwards via Unanimous Decision.  

Dan: Did the UFC wake up one morning from a drunken stupor and go, “Oh shit, look what we did? Welp, might as well own up to a mess we made for once,” cause, don’t lie, that’s definitely what happened here. Though, given their disposition for handling messes, they’ll probably play up the pompously spoiled child and go, “Nah, we did nothing wrong!” Though this might be on brand, now that I think about it. Even more confusing: How the hell did they get Diaz to sign versus Leon Edwards? Hilariously though, if their plan was to build up a Nate Diaz win here, then they masterfully shit the bed barring a surprise. Leon Edwards is an extraordinary fighter - arguably the division’s best with only its incumbent champion rivaling him. I doubt Diaz is going to pose any questions that haven’t already been answered. A chance to practice ringcraft that is going to save him versus Usman, methinks? Well, Diaz isn’t the best practice for that, but what can you do?

I’m not going to lie, this is sad. Diaz has been a household staple for years and, although the brothers have built a cult following that has exaggerated how good they were, this feels like some sort of melancholic ending. I was never a Diaz fan, though I would think anyone can see this as predatory matchmaking to some level. At the very least, I hope it gives a satisfactory light for Leon Edwards, whose inevitable collision with Kamaru Usman remains one of the most intriguing MMA can have. You already know my pick. Moving on.

Mateusz: Yeah, this is one for the ‘just bleed’ crowd. There will be blood, as soon as Leon so much as glances a glove off Nate’s brow, let alone one of his patented elbows.

Nate is a faded force, insomuch as he was a force to begin with; Leon has too many tools to control range, pace and the clinch for me to seriously consider anything other than a Leon TKO by bloody, bloody disgusting cut.

Ryan: Leon by whatever he wants. Even if what he wants is to disappoint everyone by opening up a fight-ending cut with a glancing elbow halfway through a conservative domination.

Haxx: It makes me uncomfortable to see Nate fighting up a weight class against somebody who has had quite a bit of success in out-thinking and drowning guys in an assortment of attacks designed to cut open scar tissue. I hope he is getting paid well for this one, regardless of outcome. Game as fuck, though.

Leon is an intelligent, principled tactician who (like Joe B) should serve as a model for good competitors to learn great habits from studying. Nate’s status as an incredibly tough and determined fighter might keep him in it, but the puzzle has been solved so many times that failure by Leon to replicate the process should spell the end of any perception of Edwards as an elite fighter.

Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad

Ben: This is going to be interesting or sad. Maia’s got maybe a round to seven minutes of gas in him at anything resembling a higher pace these days. Belal is a come forward fighter, and that would allow Maia to grab hold of him early. So if Belal tries to play an outfighting game, I do wonder if he would be able to do that well enough to avoid any entanglements. That being said, Belal has solid TDD and is a solid and smart grappler as well. I think even if Maia gets a hold of him, at this point in their careers, Belal can hold out and take over as time goes on. Belal Muhammad by Unanimous Decision is my sad pick.

Ed: To build off of Ben’s response, I could see a scenario in which Maia hits that early sprint, as he does, and puts Belal in a bad enough spot to end the fight or gain a serious lead. Maia is a bit too late in his career for me to feel confident about any takes whatsoever, but I’m rooting for him. 

Iggy: Ah stop.

Demian Maia is a real gem of a human being and a competitor, and I would hate to see him go out the way every aging fighter ever seems to go out. Demian needs to go sicko mode for this one because I don’t think he’s gonna last past the first round if he doesn’t, K1 Maia jokes aside. His real shot here is to just grab hold of Belal and never let go, because if he does let go, I don’t really think he has the gas tank to take Muhammad back down. Then again since Belal hasn’t really faced anyone who was really out to take him down, might as well go out on a limb as say Maia could conceivably pull it off, provided he’s not super mega ultra old.

It’s a hell of a shot though, it’s Demian Maia we’re talking about. Make it hasty, make it messy, and there might be a 1st round sub in there for him.

Sriram: Don’t know if we’ve seen Muhammad as a defensive wrestler much, and that tends to be the thing with dealing with Maia — even Burns, who is big and strong, had to deal with the grappling before he could just decapitate the man — so I think I’m a bit more muted on Maia pessimism here. Muhammad’s a fine offensive wrestler, but Maia’s approach to takedowns is so idiosyncratic that a lot of less physical and disciplined fighters do tend to get tricked into grappling against their will (as in, “well, look at that, I’ve got half-guar — oh, no”). 

That said, I understand the Maia pessimism, because his fights against Rocco Martin and Ben Askren (one a top-15-ish talent, the other Ben Askren) were incredibly messy — Martin in particular probably should’ve been a draw at best for Demian. I generally agree with the sentiment that Maia has a round to get things done here, but Maia getting anything done tends to be the end of the fight, and he’s navigated physical decline enough against bigger hitters than Belal (like Lyman Good) that I think he might be able to get to those situations — and Muhammad is clever and functional, but lots of people who’ve found ways to lose to Maia have been. Maybe I’m being contrarian, but Maia sub1.

Ryan: This should be an easy fight for Maia in good form, but Maia is no longer in good form. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a round one RNC from Maia, but unless he gets a takedown and secures the back early, it’s easy to see the fight slipping away from him. The pick is Belal via whatever.